mike_s55 wrote:
I wrote this on the kannekt message board regarding all those who think they are geniouses by explaining exactly where the market is, truth is you never know, here is my post:

So for the last few years I visit the message boards from time to time and read the media, and all these "brilliant" opinionated people perdicting the direction of where and when and how much housing is going to crash and why you shouldnt own a home, as they crunch all the numbers. Ok so yes I do agree that housing is expensive and yes it is getting even more expensive over the last few years. So I definitely am real about expectations, am not a fool to thing prices will appreciate year over year etc.

What I wanted to point out though, in 2001 right after the dot com crash I decided to buy stock in Toll Brothers (TOL) and Hovnanian (HOV) both home builders. I didnt buy it because i had a crystal ball and crunch all these magical numbers being able to predict the future, i decided to buy this stock because in investors business daily i read about them because their relative strength looked good, P/E looked cheap, balance sheet etc. Absolutely no speculation at all. After i purchased the stock i would get caught up in reading the Yahoo Finance message boards. The boards were full of these "genious" predictors theorizing all these magical and fabulously complicated reasons as to why you should short the stock or sell all your shares because we are in a housing bubble and the real estate world was going to collapse. After reading those messages I got nervous and sold the stock. Unfortunately for me, the next 4 years proved to be an incredible time to own a home and the stock as i watched TOL and HOV go up in value both by almost 1000%.

I decided to revist those message boards the other day and got a huge kick out of how almost erriley similar those messages that back then scared me out of owning the stock are in 2001 about the housing bubble that exists and that everyone will be running for the exits, and the messages i read today in 2006. Here is a link to those message boards so that you can see what i am talking about.

Now i am not discrediting either sides arguments it is just appropriate for those doom sayers to step back, take a deep breath and observe how strickingly similar their arguments in 2001 were to today.


TOLL BROTHERS STOCK MESSAGE BOARD 2000-2002 with word bubble

http://betasearch.messages.yahoo.com/ ... Month=9&eDay=1&eYear=2002


HOVNANIAN STOCK MESSAGE BOARD 2001-2002 with word bubble

http://betasearch.messages.yahoo.com/ ... Month=9&eDay=1&eYear=2002

JoyOfSound wrote:
i checked out gull's cove online and spoke with their realtor.

you can buy a condo at pre-construction for 10% (of $380k for a 1-bedroom; $38,000), and not pay any mortgage or taxes until the unit is occupiable, which would be fall of 2007.

for flipping purposes, it seems that by the fall of 2007, the same unit could be worth maybe 100k MORE than the original purchase price.

it seems like a good investment to just flip the property, but i've never done such a large investment (i live in a unit i bought 2 years ago in journal square).

anyone have any experience with flipping condos? i was really considering buying one at gull's cove.

also, the realtor said it's four blocks from grove street path, though the original post said it was too far from the PATH....

whook wrote:
what are the heights like? better or worse than the neighborhood the beacon is in

brewster wrote:
Quote:

JoyOfSound wrote:
i checked out gull's cove online and spoke with their realtor.

you can buy a condo at pre-construction for 10% (of $380k for a 1-bedroom; $38,000), and not pay any mortgage or taxes until the unit is occupiable, which would be fall of 2007.

for flipping purposes, it seems that by the fall of 2007, the same unit could be worth maybe 100k MORE than the original purchase price.

it seems like a good investment to just flip the property, but i've never done such a large investment (i live in a unit i bought 2 years ago in journal square).

anyone have any experience with flipping condos? i was really considering buying one at gull's cove.

also, the realtor said it's four blocks from grove street path, though the original post said it was too far from the PATH....

Well, if it sounds too good to be true....

Just have a plan B in case it's not worth more than you paid, and a plan C in case it's worth less. In Florida the prebuild condo market was resembling the tech stocks of the late 90's, there was even an exchange for flipping still prebuit, then it went fizz recently.

JoyOfSound wrote:
i checked out gull's cove online and spoke with their realtor.

you can buy a condo at pre-construction for 10% (of $380k for a 1-bedroom; $38,000), and not pay any mortgage or taxes until the unit is occupiable, which would be fall of 2007.

for flipping purposes, it seems that by the fall of 2007, the same unit could be worth maybe 100k MORE than the original purchase price.

it seems like a good investment to just flip the property, but i've never done such a large investment (i live in a unit i bought 2 years ago in journal square).

anyone have any experience with flipping condos? i was really considering buying one at gull's cove.

also, the realtor said it's four blocks from grove street path, though the original post said it was too far from the PATH....

alb wrote:


You're talking about Class A (or whatever it's called in residential) apartments, right? I think there are a lot of what I'd call Class B apartments (sort of frowzy, no rats, little or no gunfire) for less than $1,500 per month.

drgoogle wrote:
Hello,

In the last week or so, I have been to sales offices and received prices for remaining units at these new construction buildings:

A - $600-$800/sqft (very nice building but overpriced)
Fulton's Landing - $550/sqft (terrible quality, poor layout)
Gulls Cove - $500-550/sqft (views wont last, far from PATH)
Montgomery Greene - $580/sqft (great finishes)
Waldo Lofts - $500/sqft (about to be engulfed by Liberty Harbor)
The Beacon - $465 - $500/sqft (location is in the projects)
Gove Point - $690/sqft (price point is ridiculous, renters comon!)
Schroeder Lofts - $475/sqft (too far from Path)

Most buildings are between 45-75% sold. I can report to everybody prices were $40-$100/sqft cheaper only 4 months ago, as most of these buildings instituted prices increases in just the last 3 months. These price increases exist despite agents getting desperate to sell the units that are remaining. I personally witnessed developers negotiating on upgrades, financing, and yes even price. There is CLEARLY a slowdown underway. With current prices not reflecting this slowdown and interest rates at 4 year high, I have to conclude that this is a TERRIBLE time to buy a condo in JC. I wanted to buy a condo very badly, and had saved up $100,000 to do so this year. BUT with my analysis, I have decided to calm my excitement and wait for prices to reflect the rising inventories and lack of demand. I see prices coming in at 20% lower in the next 12 months and that Trump's new 1000 units will only put more downward pressure on others prices as his units will not sellout.

Thoughts anybody?

JSalt wrote:

Yes, but you see there's this word in the name of our city that reflects the state it's located in. Kind of a mental barrier for certain people who think they are too good to live anywhere but NYC. Now, if we change our name to Brooklyn Heights West, we might have a few more takers.

NickL wrote:
This is not the time to buy. At todays prices, you need to make in the low six figures to be able to afford to buy anything in any part of Jersey City at todays prices.

The cheapest part of Jersey City (and probably Hudson County as a whole) is in the Heights, Journal Square & Greenville where your average one bedroom 650 square foot condo (Huge & Loftlike by NYC standards) starts in the Mid 300'Ks and HOA fees are another $200 a month or so.

What do need to make to be able to afford (and qualify under any lending scenario with less than 50% cash down)?? to buy in any of the buildings that the OP listed in the first thread?? Not everyone is going to pay $3,000 - $5,000 a month in total PITI (including maintenance) to live in Jersey City after putting the required 20% down as required by these developers.

Actually it makes more sense to rent BUT rents are soaring as well and my observation by looking at the ads and also by driving around and taking a walk in the Heights & Downtown is that there is significantly less rental inventory available than last year and you can't touch a one bedroom anywhere in the county for less than $1,500 a month in rent, but still it is about $1,000 a month LESS than buying and you don't need to put down 20% + another 7% of the loan in closing costs.

NickL wrote:
that there is significantly less rental inventory available than last year and you can't touch a one bedroom anywhere in the county for less than $1,500 a month in rent,

NNJR wrote:
I personally think people are kidding themselves if they think there will be a 20% decline in a year from now. bookmark this thread, won't happen.

You're STILL in Queens right? Dude, get on your meds, your perception of our reality is pretty wild.

Yes, but you see there's this word in the name of our city that reflects the state it's located in. Kind of a mental barrier for certain people who think they are too good to live anywhere but NYC. Now, if we change our name to Brooklyn Heights West, we might have a few more takers.

NNJR wrote:
Gulls Cove looks nice, doesn't look far from the grove street path. I think those prices are pretty reasonable considering that just over the water prices are more than 2x the price.

NickL wrote:
This is not the time to buy. At todays prices, you need to make in the low six figures to be able to afford to buy anything in any part of Jersey City at todays prices.

badgirl wrote:
My observations: there is a concerted effort on the part of some brokers to maintain a certain (extremely high)level of prices. These are the properties that languish...listed for a long time, and draw the most complaints and criticism...

Other brokers smartly price to attract a sale.

(as a seller, I've learned) if you are a buyer, place a bid. WHAT HAVE YOU GOT TO LOSE...???

If you're a seller, think of your equity.

unuf said...R/E is getting tedious... can't wait til it drops off the radar screen...

drgoogle wrote:
Schroeder Lofts - $475/sqft (too far from Path)