Re: Beer Gardens in Jersey City
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Fascinating. Of 6 listed, only 2 are actually open, biergartens and in JC. Good going, great journalism!
Posted on: 2020/7/30 18:03
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Re: CERC Building Being Sold (180 9th St) - Community Programs at Risk
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Yup. And while I guess there's been some community stuff in there, they were more interested in rent paying programs like St Anthonys to pay off the debt. I recall attending a 'planning ideas' meeting before it was built, and suggesting that they create storage space in the gym area for community theater to have flats for sets. A flat NO. Has there ever been community theater in there? And while I don't have the facts handy, most of what Yvonne says is true AFAIK. Schundler played fast and loose with the money to forward his charter agenda in a way pretty antithetical to the whole charter idea.
Posted on: 2020/7/29 23:33
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Re: Evict a tenant of illegal (not zoned) apartment
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While it's not a great idea, there's many, many thousands of these illegal units in JC, many of them illegal only because of low density zoning rather than because they fail habitability or safety requirements. I have a hard time believing getting caught is that drastic. I've heard many stories of them passing inspection simply by removing the range. Poof!! It's no longer a separate apartment.
Posted on: 2020/7/10 3:02
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Re: JCBOE hikes school taxes by 39 percent. Paging Yvonne.
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That's just it, I don't want to have to be fucking Sherlock Holmes to understand where the money goes! Special Ed gets thrown around frequently as a reason (along with ESL) you can't compare urban and suburban districts. How convenient then that you can't even find out what we spend on it! This is the stuff that makes my default judgement of all JC governmental arms to be that they're criminal enterprises. They aspire to be like the DoD, declared 'unauditable', just walk away and leave them to make our money vanish.
Posted on: 2020/5/16 3:55
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Re: JCBOE hikes school taxes by 39 percent. Paging Yvonne.
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The last time I dove into the "User Friendly Budget" I found line items which Google could not define! So much for 'User Friendly'. IIRC, I was curious what we actually spent on special ed, often a bone of contention between JC and charters or other less urban districts. Couldn't be done by an untrained civilian, the cost was distributed too widely.
Posted on: 2020/5/14 16:22
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Re: JCBOE hikes school taxes by 39 percent. Paging Yvonne.
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Spend a fraction of that money on forensic accountants and find out where the money goes and why JC spends more than anybody. If it turns out it all goes to overpaid staff from principals to janitors, and overpaid sweetheart contracts to 'connected' services, declare bankruptcy and renegotiate every.single. contract.
Posted on: 2020/5/13 21:05
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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The question is with workers and offices in the city: which is the tail and which is the dog? Are the workers in the city because that's where the big high paying businesses are, or are large businesses attracted to the city because that's where educated and talented people want to live? What could be the biggest effect is on commuters, who have already chosen not to live in the city. Even if the urban areas don't actually lose residents they will lose those millions of people coming in each day and spending money. That would be a huge change in the economy, but not a death blow. NY was the greatest city in the world before the explosion of the suburbs. Fuck em. The office towers of Wall Street have already been converted to residences, could happen to midtown.
Posted on: 2020/5/13 1:22
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Re: The Pandemic
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It took decades and very broad demographic trends for the 70's to happen. Not saying its impossible, but there's very little data pointing in that direction. The great coastal cities are so absurdly overpriced they have a VERY long way to fall! That said, I would not be surprised at a long term >25% correction here. The "natural" price of property should be at an equilibrium such that both renting and buying homes makes sense exclusive of the appreciation of said home. The cap rates of commercial and residential property have diverged dramatically for decades now. Time was it was normal to buy a small rental property for 4-6 times it's rent roll. That hasn't been seen in a long time outside of distressed assets.
Posted on: 2020/5/12 19:26
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Re: The Pandemic
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Apocalyptic prognosticators of all kinds never take feedback loops into account. As prices drop the rust belt looks less attractive and all the people who always wanted to live in the city but couldn't afford it are suddenly in the market.
Posted on: 2020/5/12 16:52
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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What attracted businesses to the city wasn't office space, you can find that out in central Jersey or White Plains or any number of suburbs. It was the skilled workers who want to live in the city, with it's exciting & stimulating lifestyle. Nightlife, art, music and cuisine. That will not change, it will all come back eventually after Covid.
A friend with perfect timing moved to Stroudsburg PA 10 weeks ago. But she and her partner never cooked, they lived off the rich variety of restaurants in Astoria. Maybe they will learn to love cooking, but maybe their lifestyle just took a major turn for the worse even though they now have more room than they know what to do with.
Posted on: 2020/5/10 16:08
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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Umm, a month or 2 is not "long"! Homeowners aren't selling in a panic and flooding the market. They're sitting tight, waiting it out as best they can, hoping it'll blow over. Look at the graphs from 2008 how badly it hit incomes and equities, but how slowly the housing markets actually fell. What it takes is someone trying to buy a house and the bank looks at the most recent comps from desperation sales and says "you're paying more than it's worth, we won't give you the LTV you want". Then the prices spiral down.
Posted on: 2020/5/7 18:22
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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Prices drop WAY slower than that when shit hits the fan! Only people who absolutely have to sell do, everyone else sits tight. So new comps at lower prices appear very slowly while properties sit on the market and sales are very slow. It took till 2012 for prices to actually bottom out from the 2008 bubble bursting.
Posted on: 2020/5/6 23:33
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Re: Coronavirus is now in Hudson County
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Not surprising. Between Netflix and Zoom folks are using a whole lot more bandwidth. I've noticed some artifacts, but my PCs are wonky enough that I didn't assume it was the connection. My workstation with an SSD for the OS is obsessed with accessing a storage drive when I websurf, dragging down performance. I've tried to check if it's using it for temp or swap files but it doesn't seem to.
Posted on: 2020/4/28 17:02
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Re: The Pandemic
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Posted on: 2020/4/23 18:09
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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It might take longer than that for sales to reflect the new reality and then those comps can be used to generate new assessments. Property repricing downward moves at a glacial pace as only those who MUST sell do so, everyone else is waiting it out, hoping for recovery.
Posted on: 2020/4/21 18:11
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Re: The Pandemic
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Sorry Rich, but worrying about being a little off topic when the site only has one active thread seems silly. On topic: Today's Times had an article about the OP subject. What bothers me is the way they treat the high cost of cities as a fact of nature rather than an artifact of their desirability. They ignore feedback loops, like the notion that if less people are willing to compete for urban homes the prices will drop to a sustainable level as the market sets a new price. Unsustainable trends tend not to be sustained.
Posted on: 2020/4/20 18:35
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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All very fascinating, but none of it explains why you would believe a ridiculous conspiracy theory about a Chinese lab just because the Chinese did as they have always done and initially tried to 'save face".
Posted on: 2020/4/18 19:46
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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Lemme get this right, you claim all this professional risk management background and that of course you saw this coming, but then get behind a ridiculous chinese lab theory? Who's a dope?
Posted on: 2020/4/18 3:31
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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Your lack of cognitive ability is at least consistent. Pissing on your ridiculous conspiracy theories is not defending China's lack of openness or freedom in any respect.
What you're doing is insulting and denigrating science itself, consistent with your GOP brethren. Everyone from virologists and epidemiologists to Bill Gates has been warning this was coming for years. But when it comes, idiots like you need to be comforted by conspiracy theories because "no one saw this coming". Quote:
Posted on: 2020/4/17 21:44
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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Yeah, except that actual virus scientists have been warning about corona virus transfers from the wild to humans for decades. They've seen close relatives of Covid 19 in the wild, and SARS was a such a close relative that some virologists call this SARS 2. But be a moron believing conspiracy theories, it suits you.
Posted on: 2020/4/17 16:02
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Re: Councilman Michael Yun - Dead from Coronavirus
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But, but, but, tax cuts are ALWAYS the answer! And while repealing G-S wasn't great, there was still plenty of regulation that would have prevented the subprime meltdown if they were actually implemented by the Bush SEC. It took failures on multiple levels to achieve that fiasco, Moodys, Fitch and S&P should have been criminally charged for their roles. Its like traffic in JC, we don't need new traffic laws, just the old ones actually enforced.
Posted on: 2020/4/13 18:28
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Re: Coronavirus is now in Hudson County
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Link?
Posted on: 2020/3/23 20:06
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Re: Coronavirus is now in Hudson County
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Seriously, "abject fear"? Get a grip woman. Your odd of getting hit by a crappy JC driver while on a stroll on a given normal day are probably higher than catching Covid while walking outdoors, never mind dying from it. I miss just sitting down at a local eatery for lunch.
Posted on: 2020/3/22 22:06
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Re: Coronavirus is now in Hudson County
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It is what it is. The fact that so many caregivers who were taking reasonable precautions have caught it shows to me that it's contagious enough to warrant the current situation. I personally don't want to roll a 20 sided die with every contact on whether I end up on a ventilator.
Posted on: 2020/3/21 22:45
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Re: Coronavirus is now in Hudson County
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What I've heard is the production falloff on shale wells is so much faster than traditional that the capital is not recaptured. But like the subprime mess, there's so much smoke and mirrors on the books that money keeps flowing in like a Ponzi. I don't recall if I've linked this here yet or not, but one of my favorite podcasts of all time is 2 Libertarian economists arguing over whether Big Capitalism is inevitably corrupt and rent seeking, and they found they could find no way way out. There's always a point where the next dollar spent is more profitable buying influence, protection and subsidy than investing in the business. You know I believe in capitalism, it's central to the rental RE game, but our Capitalists don't seem to. https://www.econtalk.org/michael-munger-on-crony-capitalism/
Posted on: 2020/3/19 22:35
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Re: Coronavirus is now in Hudson County
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If we're going to pick about numbers, lets start with the absurdity of those "mortality rates". The infection rates used are mostly for confirmed cases. Tested cases. In a situation where there's been nowhere near the kind of testing to get reliable numbers. Most epidemiologists say there's something north of 4 unreported subclinical/subcritical cases for every confirmed. So if you took the number around for a while of 2.5%, in reality it's 0.5%. Bad, a lot of people unnecessarily dead, but not an 8% fatality rate.
Posted on: 2020/3/19 20:26
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Re: Coronavirus is now in Hudson County
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My favorite economic sideshow is how this is going to affect the shale plays. I've been hearing for years none of it was ever actually profitable, that it was all basically a debt fueled Ponzi scheme. So while right now energy prices are in freefall, the recovery may be with no fracking and virtual banking subsidy of energy prices. Great for alternative energy in the long run, but no the short. The other big story is how irresponsible corporate America has been with it's 'boom money", making Trump happy by raising stock prices at all cost. They not only put their tax windfall money into buybacks, they actually borrowed deeply to buy back stocks and give dividends to make the usual suspects wealthier. That's not what rational Capitalists do, it's the MO of corporate raiders. WTF has happened to American Capitalism? Milton Friedman basically destroyed it. We've become of nation of grasshoppers, having no idea how to save for a rainy day on an institutional level.
Posted on: 2020/3/19 15:30
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Re: Coronavirus is now in Hudson County
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That can't be right, according to my insane sister with a DVM and PhD, Covid is a Russian bioweapon with HIV DNA and they're releasing it sequentially in world cities to keep the hysteria going. No end to crazy shit going around the net.
Posted on: 2020/3/17 1:34
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Re: Coronavirus is now in Hudson County
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Dude on JC Reddit thinks that stockpiling 200 rolls was not panic buying at all. People are bizarre. After the Times story about the nationwide "capitalists" who stripped every dollar store within a 200 miles of their homes of masks and sanitizer to sell on Ebay, I guess anything is possible. Will there be guys standing on the corner wearing a mask saying: "Psst, need a roll? $10..."
Posted on: 2020/3/15 18:47
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