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Re: I've seen pre-construction sales but this is ridiculous! 323 7th St
#1
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Quote:

Dolomiti wrote:
So, if you exit a real estate market 3+ years before there is a crash, based on a poor predictor (e.g. a few properties whose price is absurd), you may pay a steeper price than exiting shortly after property prices increase by 25% per year.


Problem is, there's no such thing as a perfect predictor, if there were there would never be a crash. People ignore warning signs, say they're poor predictors or "this time it's different" and drive up markets past all rationality, and I'm not just talking about JC RE. It's what happens, going way back to the legendary tulip craze and the Southsea Bubble. Big rewards rarely comes without risk, but people seem to forget that.

Posted on: 8/16 23:42
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Re: I've seen pre-construction sales but this is ridiculous! 323 7th St
#2
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Quote:

Ralph_Abutts wrote:
I think predicting a "crash" is a bit strong. Even at the last RE bubble, folks in downtown took a big hit, but not nearly as bad as others regionally or nationally .


There's more to JC than downtown. According to the appraisals I received in 2012, my 2004 Heights purchase lost 25% off the purchase price. Had I needed to sell rather than just trying to refi that would have been a really big deal. And had I bought it two years later the loss would have been far more significant.

Posted on: 8/15 11:34
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Re: I've seen pre-construction sales but this is ridiculous! 323 7th St
#3
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Quote:

Dolomiti wrote:
Someone who predicts doom for JC real estate, and gets the reasons totally wrong, and the timing totally wrong?


Look at it this way: in every market cycle there's going to be people who get out too early, and those who buy just before it crashes. Which would you rather be? Sure, you'd like to be the guy that times it perfectly, surely you know that's not easy or everyone would be doing it!

Winter is coming...this we know, because it always has. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise. I don't think most fans of GoT really think about how weird and fucked up it would be if you didn't actually know when winter would come. You'd not know when to start saving food or preserving meat. Every cold snap would make you think it's coming and every Indian Summer heat wave would reassure you it's not. Market cycles are like that.

Posted on: 8/15 9:43
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Re: I've seen pre-construction sales but this is ridiculous! 323 7th St
#4
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Quote:

Dolomiti wrote:
I have to point out that people on JC List (not the people posting in this thread so far) have seen "signs" of bubbles and bursts for at least 3 years now.


Sometimes, as last time, these thing have so many moving parts and outside forces it's hard to predict. Even a broken clock is eventually right! I see prices going sky high, but not rents or salaries. That spells trouble to me, but I already admitted to being too timid to buy in this market.

Did you read the article about the dude who had been predicting the economic disaster in Turkey for at least 6 years? He was right, it just took time.

Posted on: 8/14 22:14
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Re: Jersey City seeks to boost pay of department directors
#5
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That's an interesting anecdote that sure refutes my perception. And there's no doubt the city web presence sucks. I wonder if some fields like finance and IT are so saturated with money that the floor salary for competence really is that high. As a counter-example I know a social worker with 2 Ivy degrees who directs a major hospital clinic supervising dozens and doesn't break $100k. I'd argue that example is more relevant to most city govt positions.

Posted on: 8/14 18:45
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Re: Jersey City seeks to boost pay of department directors
#6
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Quote:

bodhipooh wrote:
some positions would be hard to find a talented person to be able to discharge the duties and responsibilities without providing a competitive salary


Possibly, but I doubt it. My observation has been that the Metro area is so saturated in well educated talent in every field that the difference between the top and middle is mostly the opportunities they've had. It's easy to see this in the arts, but it extends to many other fields.

Posted on: 8/14 17:12
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Re: I've seen pre-construction sales but this is ridiculous! 323 7th St
#7
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Quote:

bodhipooh wrote:
If you don't mind my asking: where would you normally draw the line?


I think I draw myself right out of the market! I have never considered buying a place with negative cashflow. My last purchase in 2012 was a 4U for $300k, and was fully rented at $3,600, making it 6.94 GRM. All indications are that it would sell for well over twice that. Even accounting for renovations and rent increases, it would lose money at that price.

It's sad but true what you say about foreign investment here. What those countries need desperately is domestic investments to grow their economies, but their governments are such a mess no one believes that if they build something it won't be taken away by corruption. So both the kleptocrats and the "investor class" send their cash offshore.

Posted on: 8/14 16:15
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Re: I've seen pre-construction sales but this is ridiculous! 323 7th St
#8
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Quote:

ILRie wrote:
Quote:

brewster wrote:
What I'd also like to know about this property is how are they getting 4 floors in an R-1 zone? Did they get a variance?


It actually looks like it sits in the R-5 zone, according to the city's latest zoning map. 323 7th sits near the junction of Monmouth and 7th? So yeah, in that orange colored bit which is the R-5 (note: had to zoom in like 200% to see it clearly).

So they could have 4 floors, provided 7th St has a sixty feet or more right of way; if it's less, then they'd need a variance.


Huh, was that part of that rezoning shitshow last year about the Village? I'm now R-5! Surely that increases the value of a property as a teardown tremendously, no? I've been thinking for a while my lot value was higher as a scrape job. Maybe they'll scrape some of the hideous Bayonne Boxes!

Can you elaborate or reference the sixty feet or more right of way? Is that the street width or the street plus sidewalk setback? I believe the street is the standard 40' that most of the city is.

EDIT: searching the city ordinance https://library.municode.com/nj/jersey ... inances?nodeId=CHA352ENOR there's no explicit definition, but it appears sidewalks are a "public right of way", so that the width would include them.

Posted on: 8/14 14:37
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Re: Jersey City seeks to boost pay of department directors
#9
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Quote:

Stringer wrote:

Jersey City seeks to boost pay of department directors

JERSEY CITY — The city is proposing annual raises of $10,660 to $28,835 for nine department directors, citing a need to boost pay to keep top officials from fleeing city government for higher paying jobs.

The planned pay raises would be the first for the nine positions in more than a decade. The business administrator, clerk and corporation counsel would see their pay rise from $139,340 to $150,000. The directors of economic development, health, human resources, public works and recreation, plus the tax assessor, would get a pay boost from $121,165 to $150,000.

https://www.nj.com/hudson/index.ssf/20 ... _of_department_direc.html



Let em flee, this "losing talent" crap is the biggest lie. There's plenty of competent people out there who would love those already well paying jobs. I know people with Ivy degrees who'd be thrilled to make $140k in the public sector with great benefits.

Posted on: 8/14 12:41
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Re: I've seen pre-construction sales but this is ridiculous! 323 7th St
#10
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Quote:

bodhipooh wrote:
Given the current DTJC market, I feel that a GRM of 100 is a little too conservative. Most of the new luxury developments in DTJC that provide a good reference point (say, developments in which condos and rentals are built by the same developer, in the same area, such as Oakman/ArtHouse or Provost Square) have GRMs of 200 - 300. Of course, that's a deep-pocketed developer, so probably not a very apt comparison.

The big question is does a property cashflow, or is it a speculation play. A bank would not lend on any of these if they were commercial and being appraised via their Cap Rate rather than comps.

FWIW, let me correct your GRM calc, it's usually done as price/(monthly rent x12), so something selling for 100x rent has a GRM of 8.3. The worst GRM I ever bought was a 10.7 3-family in 2004.

What I'd also like to know about this property is how are they getting 4 floors in an R-1 zone? Did they get a variance?

Posted on: 8/14 12:36
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Re: I've seen pre-construction sales but this is ridiculous! 323 7th St
#11
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Quote:

hero69 wrote:
why is this a bubble? please explain.


There's lots of signs. One is this kind of pre-construction sale where the seller is trying to get it sold while the market is still hot, and the buyers often think they can make money just holding the property with the downpayment till completion and then they can flip it for profit in a double closing. Another is the GRM of these properties, the rent/purchase ratio. This place would have to rent for $18k a month to make sense as a rental, so who in their truly right mind wants to own it?

Posted on: 8/13 21:36
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Re: I've seen pre-construction sales but this is ridiculous! 323 7th St
#12
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Quote:

MDM wrote:
Quote:

brewster wrote:
The listing for 323 7th St popped up in my Zillow feed. 4br, 5 bath SFR, $1,850,000. Beautiful pics of interior and exterior, and currently an empty lot!


This is a sign we are approaching the next property crash.


One sign among many...

Posted on: 8/13 16:44
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Re: Recommendations- Dumpster Rental
#13
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Quote:

MDM wrote:
Quote:

brewster wrote:
[quote]

I just called Interstate and they said the smallest they have is 10 yard. How do you have a 1 yard?


Maybe they only have the small ones for people who rent monthly? I keep one in my garage since I have so many small project going on that require me to get rid of stuff.


Is it possible they said that because it's construction debris not household crap? The Bagster is a bust, these morons require 5' clearance all around the 4x8 bag, so they need a 14x18 footprint next to the street! No one has a 14' wide driveway here!

Posted on: 8/13 16:42
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Re: Recommendations- Dumpster Rental
#14
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Quote:

MDM wrote:
I have a 1 yard I use to put old rugs and other stuff in (no cardboard allowed) as I am doing apartment refreshes. It gets picked up once per month. Costs me about $60 a month for the service.


I just called Interstate and they said the smallest they have is 10 yard. How do you have a 1 yard?

Just did some research on the "Bagster" from WM. $30 to buy the 3 yard bag, $175 to haul away, 3k lb limit. Perfect!!! Only issue is will having it the driveway for a few days till they collect attract a Buildings inspector nosing around. I don't think replacing a tile tub surround needs a permit but you never know with those pirates.

Posted on: 8/13 15:58

Edited by brewster on 2018/8/13 16:25:19
Edited by brewster on 2018/8/13 16:28:03
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I've seen pre-construction sales but this is ridiculous! 323 7th St
#15
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The listing for 323 7th St popped up in my Zillow feed. 4br, 5 bath SFR, $1,850,000. Beautiful pics of interior and exterior, and currently an empty lot! Wow. They don't let the cat out of the bag till the final line of the long description: "Estimated completion late Spring/early Summer 2019. "

Posted on: 8/13 14:53
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Re: Recommendations- Dumpster Rental
#16
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Quote:

light12v wrote:
That's an outrageous charge tern [Robin].....I paid independent Roselle <$500 for each 40yd container with 5 TONS of Roof ripoff materials [my job required 2x] when I had my 135 year old Roof & Yankee gutters ripped & re-built in the Fall of 2016


You ain't seen outrageous. I demoed out and bagged about 90 sq ft of bathroom tile and 2 layers of wallboard. I was quoted by one of the "cleanout" companies $750 to carry it down 2 flights and take it away. Another wanted $450. I wanted to get some of those 1/2 yard rollaways that can fit in my alley, but I could not find anyone who did that after the one carter, Falesto, closed.

Posted on: 8/9 17:27
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Re: Hatfield and McCoy's on Astor Place!
#17
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I gotta agree the NA's vary by their leadership. When I moved to HP the NA was controlled by the dog people, the park was literally gone to the dogs, they wouldn't even allow discussion of a dog run. It was the classic Yvonne type "we like it as it is, it works for us, nothing should change, ever". They were even suspicious and negative when a new resident wanted to start a farmers market!
But the leadership changed and HPNA did a remarkable and professional job of resident inclusion on the park renovation planning.

Posted on: 8/8 22:47
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Re: seeking Art Replicator / Forger - odd request
#18
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Quote:

K-Lo2 wrote:
Quote:
It is suppose to be a 'Jackson Pollock'


Do you know any house painters from who you could borrow a drop cloth?


Better yet, find a 2 year old and give them some fingerpaint. Here's one of my daughter's, I'l license it to you for a reasonable fee. Powerful, huh?

Resized Image

Posted on: 8/8 14:43
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Re: seeking Art Replicator / Forger - odd request
#19
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Quote:

jcity wrote:
It is suppose to be a 'Jackson Pollock'


Ok, I take it back about time consuming craftsmanship!! I was thinking more like a Rembrandt.

Posted on: 8/8 13:01

Edited by brewster on 2018/8/8 13:28:24
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Re: seeking Art Replicator / Forger - odd request
#20
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Quote:

jcity wrote:
Note: not looking to do anything illegal...ha! Just needing a prop
for an upcoming play.
Clay


I cannot imagine paying an artist for a time consuming repro is cost effective for the typical shoestring local theater company. Have you considered acquiring a digital image and having 20x30 photoprints made? At <$20 a pop you can tile them to make a big image if need be.

Posted on: 8/7 13:07
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Re: Dixon Leasing Cheating JC out of Taxes with the help of Rebecca Sysmes
#21
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Quote:

bodhipooh wrote:
You don't need to submit a FOIA request to get this information. Property tax information is open to the public at large, and you can look it up yourself via the property tax portal.


Unlikely to be easy if the company uses layers of LLCs like many do. There's probably a separate LLC for each property. Maybe correlating the owner addresses would work, but I doubt it.

Posted on: 8/7 11:40
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Re: Do you recommend particular Roofer?
#22
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Quote:

thor800 wrote:
stay away from Imperial Roofing.


You got that right!

Capital's price on PVC seemed great considering the warranty, till another roofer pointed out that the parapets were crumbling and the mortar was gone! They were going to wrap the crumbling masonry in PVC and walk away making it a hidden time bomb. Not good.

Another roofer on another roof ignored that the timber on the roof edge was rotted away where water had pooled. After the roof was done I noticed the siding shingles buckling from the whole roof sagging! I had to tear down the ceiling under it to get at it to shore up the roof.

Lastly, not roofing, I discovered that 2 bathrooms I had build had no waterproofing membrane on the cement board under the tile, considered mandatory today by tile professionals. I discovered this when I had to rip out a windowsill in the shower that they had failed to pitch so the water would run off rather than pool and leak through.

Lesson is most contractors are happy to leave you with a time bomb if they can argue it wasn't in their scope of work or you didn't ask for it specifically. I've learned my lesson, I'm going to hover over the next contractor I hire and make sure it's done right. I have no idea what people with less skills, knowledge & free time can do. Sorry for the rant, I'm disgusted.

Posted on: 8/6 22:45
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Re: Okay, so who here thinks the Katyn monument needs to go?
#23
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No I didn't see it. Maybe I'll swing by again tomorrow and see if they're still around. FWIW Parking is still a shitshow, now they take CC and DON'T take personal checks!!!

Posted on: 8/1 21:05
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Re: Okay, so who here thinks the Katyn monument needs to go?
#24
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Today outside the Parking Authority office I was asked to sign a petition against "them tearing down all the statues in JC". Well there's a classic bit of deception! I pointed out they were moving just one statue a few hundred feet, and the woman walked off in a huff.

Posted on: 8/1 18:05
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Re: Boonton Reservoir
#25
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Quote:

MDM wrote:
He tried drinking nothing but bottled water... the locals would refill bottles with tap water.


That actually did kill my dad, very slowly. He contracted a rare Hepatitis (E or some such) in Ukraine when he didn't want to offend his hosts even though he saw them filling the bottle from the tap. He eventually died of cirrhosis and the liver cancer it caused. (No, he was not a drinker at all)

Posted on: 8/1 18:00
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Re: its official: entire heights must buy resident parking permit
#26
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Quote:

But, if indeed this is a problem in your neck of the woods, here is some good news for you: residents of developments which have parking (even if the parking is not free) are not eligible for on-street parking. So, once the rules go into effect, all those residents of high rises with parking decks/lots will have to figure a place to park, or risk getting ticketed. At $100/ticket, paying for monthly parking will be a relative bargain.


I can't wait for them to zone "Soho West". Those buildings all have parking but few seem to use it, making the streets a parking lot, complete with cars stopping in middle of Coles and people walking in the middle of the street. I think what makes it worse than any normal parked up street is the lots without sidewalks, The city should make the owners build sidewalks now that there's a ton of pedestrians, before someone gets hurt. I"ve now seen a woman pushing her double stroller in the street several times, presumably to and from poor overused HP.

Posted on: 7/27 12:47
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Re: Exchange Physical Therapy Group-Liberty Humane Society-Cut-Ribbon-jersey-citys-first-low-cost-spay-n
#27
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Quote:

Due to current capacity and resources, the program is designed initially for large dogs (40+ pounds) and outdoor cats in colonies of 10 or fewer whose owners/caretakers reside in the contracted service areas of Jersey City and Hoboken. Eligible pet owners would pay $10 to spay or neuter their dog or cat.


Weird, so if you just have a cat, this doesn't help you. I had a tenant asking where to get her cat spayed just the other day. I've previously bought a discounted coupon from LHS and taken in the cat of my low functioning tenants. It was just beyond them.

Posted on: 7/23 23:13
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Re: 2017 Reval ~ Property Inspections
#28
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Quote:

bodhipooh wrote:
[quote]
I doubt many people will do the math and then the legwork to terminate their abatement contract in favor of regular taxes. Like I said earlier, I think the power of inertia is such that most people will remain in their abatements, even if regular taxes are lower. Most people automatically assume they are saving money by being in an abatement contract.


Same as all the people paying effective tax rates of 3 to 4% who looked at their assessment of a fraction of fair market value, assumed they were getting a deal on their taxes rather than getting ripped off, and never appealed them.

So much of this whole casino game of taxes runs on deliberate obscurity and confusion. Even just the ridiculous method of quoting taxes by "dollars per thousand" value rather than just a fucking percentage which any grade-schooler would understand.

Posted on: 7/22 23:23
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Re: 2017 Reval ~ Property Inspections
#29
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Quote:

Yvonne wrote:
You were not at the budget hearings either Brewster. You do not hear the questions being asked or the answers given. You are another person who feels threaten facts are presented.


Some of us have lives and don't feel we need to be at meetings and harass officials to understand this. Why don't you start by presenting facts? At no time have you ever acknowledged that PILOT payments are a significant part of the the city's income. Your "facts" are incorrect, and when called on it, you double down and say "you weren't there" rather than actually show your work like in any grade school math class.

If you want to prove your case show the 2 numbers that you never do:

Current total PILOT revenue
Total revenue from Abated property if it were ratable.

The DIFFERENCE between these is the number that would would affect the rate, and you avoid this like the plague, because it doesn't fit your narrative.

Yes, this bypasses the issue of the county and schools, but that hasn't been your point, you just yammer on and on that "our taxes are high".

Posted on: 7/22 11:29
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Re: 2017 Reval ~ Property Inspections
#30
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Quote:

Yvonne wrote:
bodhipooh, when did you speak to the business administrator or the county tax board? I do all the time. So, yes I do believe what I post because the information comes from those who do our budgets. By the way, I did not see you at the last budget hearing.


I believe you understand about as much when you talk to these officials as my cat does when I've repeatedly tried to explain quantum physics to him. He seems interested and attentive, but I guess it's just beyond him.

Posted on: 7/21 18:53
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