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Re: The Pandemic
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Except that the cluster of cases in Northern Italy came from Italian businesspeople returning from Wuhan, a few of which were super-spreaders.

The Chinese workers had already been here before the first case in China.

Posted on: 5/26 20:31
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Re: The Pandemic
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Posted on: 5/26 18:28
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Re: The Pandemic
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Of the man reasons why COVID19 spread so much in Italy is because Italians are very tactile and regularly hug and kiss one another. Also, it's typical for three generations of families to live in the same modest home. While I believe China is awful and underhanded, some of your conspiracy theories are definitely a little over the top. But I have nothing against a good conspiracy theory. Still, what you haven't commented on is how the constituents of Hong Kong of on their own controlled the spread of COVID19 on HongKong.

Posted on: 5/25 20:31
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Re: The Pandemic
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Little noticed and as well little reported on: In Northern Italy there were 300,000
Chinese--laborers working on the Belt and Road China project. They displaced Italians. When the virus struck guess where the Chinese flocked? Yep--to Italy, and the results were catastrophic as we know.

Here's some background:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/article ... ears-over-the-coronavirus

Posted on: 5/25 16:04
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Re: The Pandemic
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Interesting video on China, when the 2008 housing crash happened and banks laid off people, a neighbor who worked for one of the banks then but was not laid off, said the industry boasted the about rehiring people but they rehired all Chinese nationals. I heard his statement sometime in 2010.

Posted on: 5/25 1:58
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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Meanwhile, Mack Cali stock continues to plummet. I regret not going short on it March 1, 2020.

https://www.google.com/search?q=mack+c ... &sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Posted on: 5/22 17:22
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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Our DTJC block has a couple of new residents, 2 of them moved from the high rises, said it wasn't worth paying for the amenities that could no longer be accessed. Wanted a brownstone/rowhouse.

Posted on: 5/22 16:17
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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About the alleged rise in crime in NY, the truth is that it fell significantly:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/crime-l ... d-many-us-cities-not-all/

Posted on: 5/19 17:42
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Re: The Pandemic
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Thank you Sutherland. Good link.
Here' where that snippet was taken from:

"Founded in 2001, NTD TV (Not to be confused with Australian NTD (TV station) or New Tang Dynasty Television is a New York-based television broadcaster. According to their about page NTD’s mission is “At NTD we believe the integrity of our world hinges on the accurate and truthful spreading of information.” NTD TV is founded by a group of Chinese-American Falun Gong practitioners which supports social conservatism, segregated paradises and anti-communism according to RationalWiki. The Wall Street Journal states that Falun Gong also founded the Epoch Times. However, a SF Gate article suggests that Executives at the Epoch Times, New Tang Dynasty and Sound of Hope deny they represent the movement. The Chinese Government considers the movement a cult and they state “NTD.TV claims to be an independent public media organization serving Chinese people all over the world. But, in essence, it is a mouthpiece of ‘Falun Gong’ in cult and anti-China propaganda.”

NTD TV’s primary focus topics are news, cultural shows, educational programs, sports and entertainment."

..........................

It appears the Chinese government doesn't appreciate their efforts.

Posted on: 5/18 12:10
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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Much of what they said wasn't accurate. Though, I think it's fair to say that most people do not trust the Chinese government. Still the US does business with them.

Posted on: 5/18 1:26
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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Quote:

RichMauro wrote:
A real eye opener:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2pqVb96yyCY


:/

"NTD TV is founded by a group of Chinese-American Falun Gong practitioners which supports social conservatism, segregated paradises and anti-communism..."

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/ntd-tv-new-tang-dynasty/

Posted on: 5/17 17:28
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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Posted on: 5/16 8:38
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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The question is with workers and offices in the city: which is the tail and which is the dog? Are the workers in the city because that's where the big high paying businesses are, or are large businesses attracted to the city because that's where educated and talented people want to live?

What could be the biggest effect is on commuters, who have already chosen not to live in the city. Even if the urban areas don't actually lose residents they will lose those millions of people coming in each day and spending money. That would be a huge change in the economy, but not a death blow. NY was the greatest city in the world before the explosion of the suburbs. Fuck em. The office towers of Wall Street have already been converted to residences, could happen to midtown.

Posted on: 5/13 1:22
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Re: The Pandemic
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Quote:

brewster wrote:
Quote:

Sutherland wrote:
I don't discount possibilities. But for now I just suspect a bad period. It's not like it's never happened.


It took decades and very broad demographic trends for the 70's to happen. Not saying its impossible, but there's very little data pointing in that direction. The great coastal cities are so absurdly overpriced they have a VERY long way to fall!

That said, I would not be surprised at a long term >25% correction here. The "natural" price of property should be at an equilibrium such that both renting and buying homes makes sense exclusive of the appreciation of said home. The cap rates of commercial and residential property have diverged dramatically for decades now. Time was it was normal to buy a small rental property for 4-6 times it's rent roll. That hasn't been seen in a long time outside of distressed assets.


I'm thinking NYC (and by extension its surrounding regions) will be ok in the long run. Most likely there will be a correction, but this sudden remote work arrangement has not been going on long enough for its problems to manifest. Creating new teams, hiring/onboarding, knowlege transfer, all of that is much more difficult remote. It's also very difficult to sustain morale and have common purpose completely disconnected.

We'll see more flexible policies, but remote work will not replace face to face interactions. IBM and Yahoo tried pioneering this and they ended up pulling back for reasons I listed above and calling everyone into the office. I'm sure there are many companies set up in smaller cities that have their eye on the Manhattan real estate market. Why have an office in Columbus OH when you can have presence in Manhattan?

Posted on: 5/12 20:59
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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Posted on: 5/12 19:50
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Re: The Pandemic
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Quote:

Sutherland wrote:
I don't discount possibilities. But for now I just suspect a bad period. It's not like it's never happened.


It took decades and very broad demographic trends for the 70's to happen. Not saying its impossible, but there's very little data pointing in that direction. The great coastal cities are so absurdly overpriced they have a VERY long way to fall!

That said, I would not be surprised at a long term >25% correction here. The "natural" price of property should be at an equilibrium such that both renting and buying homes makes sense exclusive of the appreciation of said home. The cap rates of commercial and residential property have diverged dramatically for decades now. Time was it was normal to buy a small rental property for 4-6 times it's rent roll. That hasn't been seen in a long time outside of distressed assets.

Posted on: 5/12 19:26
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Re: The Pandemic
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I don't discount possibilities. But for now I just suspect a bad period. It's not like it's never happened.

Posted on: 5/12 18:42
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Re: The Pandemic
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MDM wrote:
So by 2025, Jersey City real estate will look like this:
Resized Image


Apocalyptic prognosticators of all kinds never take feedback loops into account. As prices drop the rust belt looks less attractive and all the people who always wanted to live in the city but couldn't afford it are suddenly in the market.

Posted on: 5/12 16:52
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Re: The Pandemic
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So by 2025, Jersey City real estate will look like this:


Resized Image

Posted on: 5/12 14:14
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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Posted on: 5/11 21:50
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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What attracted businesses to the city wasn't office space, you can find that out in central Jersey or White Plains or any number of suburbs. It was the skilled workers who want to live in the city, with it's exciting & stimulating lifestyle. Nightlife, art, music and cuisine. That will not change, it will all come back eventually after Covid.

A friend with perfect timing moved to Stroudsburg PA 10 weeks ago. But she and her partner never cooked, they lived off the rich variety of restaurants in Astoria. Maybe they will learn to love cooking, but maybe their lifestyle just took a major turn for the worse even though they now have more room than they know what to do with.

Posted on: 5/10 16:08
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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I think the article points to the beginnings of a tsunami which will engulf the whole economic climate.
Today I watched an interview with the new CEO of IBM. He was thrilled with the fact that ninety-five percent of IBM's workforce were no longer, figuratively speaking, at their desks.
The global mishandling of this crisis--the shutting down of the world's business economy -- will allow a view and a way into a world that was probably years away, but is now on our doorstep: Buildings housing a workforce are now so old school. Can the current workforce be viewed as necessary? What right thinking corporate head is not going to look to cut costs by not building brick and mortar housing or renegotiating lease arrangements?
Business are being run in a totally new way. The Geek Squad is lighting the way to major changes. When commuting ceases by a large margin the auto and energy industries will be impacted. Business reliant on centers of economic activity (food, entertainments,clothing etc.) will be hurt and so on and so on.
What will the inevitable end turn out to be?--a socialist state.
Bernie--they stuck it to you again. it must hurt a little more this time if you can read the tea leaves.

Posted on: 5/10 1:14
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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Quote:

JPhurst wrote:
More on how telecommuting may affect commercial real estate long term.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/08/tec ... Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage


Interesting article. No doubt many more people may be working from home..but social distancing could mean that companies may not significantly reduce square footage since they may require more square foot/spacing between employees. It will be interesting

Posted on: 5/9 1:10
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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More on how telecommuting may affect commercial real estate long term.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/08/tec ... Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

Posted on: 5/9 1:05
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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You may be or are probably right about the health club phenomena. But I have to say, I really, really miss going to my gym. If there was a vaccine and my gym opened tomorrow I would go back immediately. I very much like working out. I've been exercising regularly at home and taking two 20 mile bike rides a week. Still I miss all of the equipment at the gym, the people and the energy. I have my work friends, most of whose last names I don't know. But they're part of my life routine. Only time will tell. Quote:

MDM wrote:

Another area I suspect is going to get hit is health clubs. For months, I have had gym equipment sitting in a virtual shopping cart, waiting for my budget to allow purchase. Tried to purchase it last week..

Everything is sold out... in fact, the entire damn company is sold out of just about everything. Turns out this is happening industry wide with companies that make weights, stationary bikes, etc.

If you just invested $5k in a home gym, are you going to bother with a gym membership ever again?

Posted on: 5/8 15:00
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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I suspect commercial A & B grade office space is going to be seriously affected in the coming 12 to 24 months. My company is one of many I found out that has been doing employee surveys, which seemed to be geared towards, "can we keep this work from home permanent". I am sure the cost of rent is a major motivating factor. My wife commented that her company is more productive with everyone not going to the office, utilizing online web conferencing instead. Plus she saves 2.5 hours a day in round trip commute time. I doubt she is alone in this assessment.

Another area I suspect is going to get hit is health clubs. For months, I have had gym equipment sitting in a virtual shopping cart, waiting for my budget to allow purchase. Tried to purchase it last week..

Everything is sold out... in fact, the entire damn company is sold out of just about everything. Turns out this is happening industry wide with companies that make weights, stationary bikes, etc.

If you just invested $5k in a home gym, are you going to bother with a gym membership ever again?

Posted on: 5/8 12:16
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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Well I qualified it as anecdotal. But I still suspect things are going to change. I don't claim to have a crystal ball. I just can't believe things will go back to normal and urban life will be the same. I don't believe real estate values won't drop significantly over the next 18 months. Again, I'm not saying this is absolutely correct. It's just my theory. I'm a home owner in JC with a lot of equity on my home. It would not make me at all happy to see this. It's just my fear right now. Quote:

dr_nick_riviera wrote:
[quote]
Sutherland wrote:
The notion that crime has increased came came from two different liberal democrat friends of mine who live in Manhattan. They've reported anecdotally an increase number of muggings on the streets and on the subways. It's an apparent result of De Blasio releasing low level criminals from prison. One is a CFO of a small biotech start up and the other the CIO of a large law firm. The CIO has been living in Manhattan since 1978.


Ah, the Yvonne method of trying to prove things -

Posted on: 5/8 1:20
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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Sutherland wrote:
The notion that crime has increased came came from two different liberal democrat friends of mine who live in Manhattan. They've reported anecdotally an increase number of muggings on the streets and on the subways. It's an apparent result of De Blasio releasing low level criminals from prison. One is a CFO of a small biotech start up and the other the CIO of a large law firm. The CIO has been living in Manhattan since 1978.


Ah, the Yvonne method of trying to prove things - "I heard something from someone once 20 years ago". Try having her fax you a new set of talking points next time.

Posted on: 5/7 22:39
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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I am declaring commercial real estate as dead, dead, dead for the next few years. Just in time for the payroll tax that was suppose to fund Jersey City schools.

I'm willing to bet that many large companies will forgo costly office space leases and instead invest in work from home technologies to track their employees.

Resized Image
The above image is from https://www.squarefoot.com/ny/new-york/manhattan/office-space and provides information on the amount to lease a sqft of office space in Manhattan. It's going to be cheaper to relocate to the burbs or a no income tax state and fly in staff for necessary meetings rather than pay the office space rates.

Time will prove me right or wrong.

Posted on: 5/7 19:46
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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Wow - -you must be right about the crime increase in the case as you've given us your source of 2 liberal friends who live in Manhattan.

Quote:

Sutherland wrote:
The notion that crime has increased came came from two different liberal democrat friends of mine who live in Manhattan. They've reported anecdotally an increase number of muggings on the streets and on the subways. It's an apparent result of De Blasio releasing low level criminals from prison. One is a CFO of a small biotech start up and the other the CIO of a large law firm. The CIO has been living in Manhattan since 1978.

Posted on: 5/7 19:19
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