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Sutherland

Re: Beaches Open near Jersey City!

Home away from home

I own a weekend house in Asbury Park. The boardwalk and beach are filled with people who aren't wearing masks nor social distancing.

Posted on: 6/25 20:12

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Sutherland

Re: The Pandemic

Home away from home

Quote:

dr_nick_riviera wrote:
You seek to forget that the virus is temporary. We will have a vaccine and once we do, people will flock back for opportunities. It’s not like the problems that existed in the suburbs (opioids, decaying main streets, generally nothing to do) are going away after the virus.

You need to keep repeating - the virus is temporary and people have short memories.

There is no guarantee that there is going to be a vaccine and that can't be overlooked. And even if there is some vaccine the effectiveness of the first round is not yet determined. There is already reporting in various business journals about wealthy people leaving Cities for the suburbs. While things may not turn out to be as bad as the mid 70s, history does have away of repeating itself. Look, I'm not putting my house on the market. Still I see a significant hit. Not just a modest quick dip. The other factor is that unemployment is high and a recession started in February. Unless you're counting on some V shape recovery, which is unlikely i can't see a short term modest downturn. There are several factors at play, including COVID19 for which we may not have a vaccine, crime in NYC has gone up, we started this all out in a recession and now the pandemic exacerbated that and real estate in the NYC area was already over valued. Of course I know I could be wrong. But to me all factors point to a longer and more severe downturn.

Posted on: 6/12 16:42

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Sutherland

Re: The Pandemic

Home away from home

What you do not seem to realize is that some of us have lived through this sort of thing before. Social unrest made cities undesirable and drove them into financial ruins. New York City was actually bankrupt, crime ridden, filthy with garbage piled upon the streets for days. There was rioting in many cities through out the country. Many of the brownstones downtown, Jersey City were boarded up and there was high crime downtown. Hamilton Park was often referred to as needle park. The restaurant on the corner of 9th and Erie once was boarded up and had a sliding plexiglass window from which drugs were sold.

So it's not the media influencing me, but my own life experience. It's good for a sales person to be optimistic and hopeful. But it's also important for homeowners and investors to be realistic and not disregard history. If you think the aforementioned is not at all a possibility, well then good for you. I am not saying this is necessarily all going to happen, but the market is doing to take a hit greater than what you're anticipating for sure.

Posted on: 6/11 14:58

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Sutherland

Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market

Home away from home

I'm not sure how long you've been in real estate. But "my educated guess" is probably not longer than 10 years. Since my original post there have been numerous business and financial publications reporting on people fleeing Cities for the suburbs for larger homes where at least one person if not two can work from home.
There's no question the Jersey City and Manhattan commercial real estate market will be taking a huge hit as more people will be working from home and employers will reduce their footprint.

Even before the pandemic two bedroom condos in JC had been moving slow because of excess inventory. It's been anecdotally observed from other realtors that the units in multi unit dwellings are definitely taking a hit.

Perhaps brownstones will do well, because it will accommodate the desire to not live in a multi unit dwelling.

If you do not think the looting and crime in Manhattan is going to impact Jersey City, you're deep in denial. People pretty much live in Hudson Co. to be closer to Manhattan. If people aren't going to be going to sporting events, museums, theaters, restaurants and feel safe in Manhattan, they are not interested in paying a lot for their real estate to just sit home. They are more inclined to have a bigger property where they can work from home, have space for their children to play and maybe even have a pool.

Your comment about the <$400k market in JC is rather curious. I didn't think that made up a big component of the JC real estate market. Your comment about the>$500k market only furthers my original proposition. If you've been in the local real estate market for awhile you would have readily observed that the >$500k segment makes up the vast majority of the market.

Quote:

RealEstateSingh wrote:
I feel like the original post is extremely morbid and not very likely.

As a realtor, the real estate market in Jersey City has been booming. I am busier now than I have ever been in my whole career. T

My Market Update:
I am seeing properties in the $400k and below range flying off the shelves (Seller's Market) but also seeing the the $500k+ properties being negotiated down (Buyer's Market).

Lastly, what crime and looting are we talking about. As far as I can tell, there hasn't been much looting in our area if at all. Perhaps Manhattan, which I have mentioned, probably will have a slow recovery, but it will still be a hub. The way I see it, it presents a buying opportunity.

(risk/reward) Buying now is a risk, but prices are down with historically low interest rates. just my educated opinions.

Posted on: 6/9 14:14

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Sutherland

Re: The Pandemic

Home away from home

I can't see how any can expect a short term hit to the real estate market at this juncture. The crime and looting in the City is likely to be devastating to the local economy for sometime to come.

Posted on: 6/4 23:48

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Sutherland

Re: The Pandemic

Home away from home

Of the man reasons why COVID19 spread so much in Italy is because Italians are very tactile and regularly hug and kiss one another. Also, it's typical for three generations of families to live in the same modest home. While I believe China is awful and underhanded, some of your conspiracy theories are definitely a little over the top. But I have nothing against a good conspiracy theory. Still, what you haven't commented on is how the constituents of Hong Kong of on their own controlled the spread of COVID19 on HongKong.

Posted on: 5/25 20:31

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Sutherland

Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market

Home away from home

Meanwhile, Mack Cali stock continues to plummet. I regret not going short on it March 1, 2020.

https://www.google.com/search?q=mack+c ... &sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Posted on: 5/22 17:22

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Sutherland

Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market

Home away from home

Much of what they said wasn't accurate. Though, I think it's fair to say that most people do not trust the Chinese government. Still the US does business with them.

Posted on: 5/18 1:26

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Sutherland

Re: JC Covid cases, don't seem to be decreasing that much

Home away from home

Jersey City is seeing a pretty good drop in new cases.

https://public.tableau.com/profile/jer ... sinJerseyCity?publish=yes

Posted on: 5/14 20:48

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Sutherland

Re: The Pandemic

#10

Home away from home

I don't discount possibilities. But for now I just suspect a bad period. It's not like it's never happened.

Posted on: 5/12 18:42

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Sutherland

Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market

#11

Home away from home

Articles I just read on LinkedIn addressing this exact issue:

https://www.linkedin.com/feed/news/cit ... losing-its-shine-4848580/

And the Bloomberg article: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/article ... cost-cities?sref=2Wo6zJsr

Posted on: 5/11 21:50

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Sutherland

Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market

#12

Home away from home

You may be or are probably right about the health club phenomena. But I have to say, I really, really miss going to my gym. If there was a vaccine and my gym opened tomorrow I would go back immediately. I very much like working out. I've been exercising regularly at home and taking two 20 mile bike rides a week. Still I miss all of the equipment at the gym, the people and the energy. I have my work friends, most of whose last names I don't know. But they're part of my life routine. Only time will tell. Quote:

MDM wrote:

Another area I suspect is going to get hit is health clubs. For months, I have had gym equipment sitting in a virtual shopping cart, waiting for my budget to allow purchase. Tried to purchase it last week..

Everything is sold out... in fact, the entire damn company is sold out of just about everything. Turns out this is happening industry wide with companies that make weights, stationary bikes, etc.

If you just invested $5k in a home gym, are you going to bother with a gym membership ever again?

Posted on: 5/8 15:00

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Sutherland

Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market

#13

Home away from home

Well I qualified it as anecdotal. But I still suspect things are going to change. I don't claim to have a crystal ball. I just can't believe things will go back to normal and urban life will be the same. I don't believe real estate values won't drop significantly over the next 18 months. Again, I'm not saying this is absolutely correct. It's just my theory. I'm a home owner in JC with a lot of equity on my home. It would not make me at all happy to see this. It's just my fear right now. Quote:

dr_nick_riviera wrote:
[quote]
Sutherland wrote:
The notion that crime has increased came came from two different liberal democrat friends of mine who live in Manhattan. They've reported anecdotally an increase number of muggings on the streets and on the subways. It's an apparent result of De Blasio releasing low level criminals from prison. One is a CFO of a small biotech start up and the other the CIO of a large law firm. The CIO has been living in Manhattan since 1978.

Ah, the Yvonne method of trying to prove things -

Posted on: 5/8 1:20

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Sutherland

Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market

#14

Home away from home

The notion that crime has increased came came from two different liberal democrat friends of mine who live in Manhattan. They've reported anecdotally an increase number of muggings on the streets and on the subways. It's an apparent result of De Blasio releasing low level criminals from prison. One is a CFO of a small biotech start up and the other the CIO of a large law firm. The CIO has been living in Manhattan since 1978.

Posted on: 5/7 18:41

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Sutherland

Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market

#15

Home away from home

I agree with you in principal. However, there has already been a long period of excessive unemployment. What we don't know is the extent of the reduction in many peoples' income in reduced commissions and bonuses, though they may be still employed. A lot of people more recently paid top dollar for homes and then put in like $500k of renovations. It's going to be hard for a lot of people to hold on. Also, let's not forget the added real estate tax burden. To add insult to injury, I've been hearing about increased crime in NYC.

Quote:

brewster wrote:
Quote:

ActionDan wrote:
I've heard similar anecdotes in other markets, from people who hoped to have a dip to buy into and didn't see one.

Prices drop WAY slower than that when shit hits the fan! Only people who absolutely have to sell do, everyone else sits tight. So new comps at lower prices appear very slowly while properties sit on the market and sales are very slow. It took till 2012 for prices to actually bottom out from the 2008 bubble bursting.

Posted on: 5/7 17:20

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Sutherland

Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market

#16

Home away from home

I absolutely this will have a long lasting impact on the commercial real estate market. For one, I think a lot of organizations will be relocating at least in part out to the burbs and many more people will work remotely.

Not at all unrelated friends of mine who own an apartment in the West Village and a house down the Jersey shore have advised me that on April 1, the relocated to the Jersey shore house because apparently of an increase in crime, mostly muggins in NYC. An apparent consequence of the decision to release some inmates. I think that's going to be a hard thing to reverse. I think this will only further push people to leave urban areas.

Posted on: 5/5 22:39

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Sutherland

Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market

#17

Home away from home

that will be very interesting to see.Quote:

MDM wrote:
I am wondering if we will see for commercial properties, where there aren't often escrow accounts, a large number of missed tax payments for this coming quarter.

Posted on: 4/26 13:55

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Sutherland

Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market

#18

Home away from home

I don't even know how we could be thinking about this at this juncture. The new COVID numbers in JC are still stubbornly high.

Quote:

dr_nick_riviera wrote:
https://www.nj.com/hudson/2020/04/reop ... ess-mayor-fulop-says.html

"On restaurants: "What we’re looking to do now is change the capacity inside, so that tables are far apart, bars spaces are far apart — that would entail a reduction of 40 to 50% ... of maximum capacity. We’re going to try to offset some of that ... by expanding outdoor seating, ... where possible to take away parking spaces. ...

“People don’t like losing parking, but if your are trading off keeping a business in the neighborhood, that’s a worthwhile tradeoff.”

Haha, so the NAs lose even when they should have a win. Less parking for more outdoor seating? Win win. Maybe we get more permanent pedestrian areas because of this.

Posted on: 4/23 21:55

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Sutherland

Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market

#19

Home away from home

Yes. The original issue is the economic impact this will have and how it will effect the JC and urban real estate market. Interesting and not at all unrelated, Seton Hall University published a study that 72% of US citizens will not go to sporting events until there is a vaccine. I think that evidences how people are going to respond to this in other areas. Quote:

RichMauro wrote:
Might we get back on topic?

Posted on: 4/18 17:39

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Sutherland

Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market

#20

Home away from home

Of course only time will tell. But I think a lot of people or at least some will just want to live in less dense areas. Some will suffer long term hits to their income, forcing them to sell or go into foreclosure. After after the social distance rules are lifted, some people won't rush to be in crowded or semi crowded venues, like restaurants, bars, sporting arenas, malls, office buildings, gyms, beaches. I have to suspect all of this will have a lingering effect on the economy and the real estate market. I've been wrong before. But in this instance I would be surprised if there's a quick bounce back.

Posted on: 4/16 17:33

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Sutherland

Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market

#21

Home away from home

I think one big difference between this and 9/11 is that after 9/11, people went back to work in NYC after a few days and the rest of the country was still working. People haven't been working in earnest in NYC or the area in at last three weeks. It's not likely that people will be returning to real work for at least 4 months and probably longer. There are other factors as well that will be at play.

Posted on: 4/16 13:07

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Sutherland

The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market

#22

Home away from home

In the last several years, buyers have spent top dollar on purchasing older Jersey homes, and then poured as much as $600,000 on renovations. At the same time, developers have been building condo buildings with shiny new two bedroom condos, the market for which has already been sagging. Under the pressure of the pandemic, it's likely a lot of people will leave urban areas, many people will either lose jobs, or suffer direct pay cuts, reductions in bonuses or commissions, making meeting mortgage payments a significant challenge if not impossible. Developers will have to meet the call of the banks. The likelihood of a 30% drop in real estate market values is great. In this instance, the fall won't take long. As a homeowner, I take absolutely no joy in this. Unfortunately, it's a harsh reality. The impact of this is going to have a significant effect on our local economy and the larger economy. Still new opportunities will abound. However, I believe the urban real estate market is going to take an immediate hit. Only time will tell. But from an economic stand point, I believe this will be very much like the 70s.

Posted on: 4/16 1:15

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Sutherland

Newark Catholic Archdiocese Suspends Masses

#23

Home away from home

https://rcan.org/cardinal-joseph-w-tob ... chools-proactive-response

Posted on: 3/13 12:14

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Sutherland

Re: Enna Bakery

#24

Home away from home

Was it ever full with customers? I just think that's a hard place for a business like that. There's not enough foot traffic.

Posted on: 2/2 18:58

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Sutherland

Re: New Jersey-New York area lost 5,700 millionaires in 2018

#25

Home away from home

Then who is buying up all of this real estate? I realize the real estate market in NYC and some areas of NNJ have cooled in part. But that's in part because the numbers had reached super, super stratospheric heights. Still, even with the dip, prices are high and people are still buying expensive real estate. In Asbury Park at least 20 units in the Ocean Club sold for anywhere from $1mm to $5mm. Properties in JC are still moving as are properties in the several million mark in NYC. It seems to me there's plenty of money floating around.

Quote:

bodhipooh wrote:
I love reviving this thread every year, as annual data comes out that clearly repudiates the narrative pushed by Dolomiti and other so-called progressives who think you can continue to raise taxes on people year after year and that people will continue to take it.

From the thread below, the idea that taxes can spur people to leave NY/NJ was dismissed as a myth. Too bad the data does not fit that characterization.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-florid ... he-tax-relief-11578501325

https://nypost.com/2019/12/30/new-york ... -an-alarming-rate-report/

Posted on: 1/14 15:31

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Sutherland

Seeking recommendations for house cleaning service - Downtown

#26

Home away from home

I'm looking for a cleaning service for my home. I occupy two floors of a brownstone. If you can tell me what you pay for your service as well that would be great.

Thanks

Posted on: 1/6 16:22

Edited by Sutherland on 2020/1/6 16:44:42

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Sutherland

Re: House Inspector to avoid--John Estes, Regional Home Inspection

#27

Home away from home

I used DICO too. Those guys are detailed and catch every little thing. But as a buyer you have to be realistic as to what to request when looking at the report. Every little leaky faucet is not going to get repaired nor will you get a credit for it.

Posted on: 12/29 14:04

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Sutherland

Re: JC teachers who made 99K or more in 2019

#28

Home away from home

I'm 55 years old, with a BS in accounting and a practicing attorney. We're not going to attract the brightest and best by underpaying them. People cannot afford to live in this year on less than $90,000.00 . We have lost our best candidates to careers that pay more. We have to attract those people.

Quote:

dmark526 wrote:
Lol. You sound like a typical Millennial. I have no experience, but I want to start at the top. Wouldn't we all like to have things given to us before proving ourselves.

Posted on: 12/6 15:07

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Sutherland

Re: JC teachers who made 99K or more in 2019

#29

Home away from home

I think $99k for a teacher's salary should be their starting salary right out of college.

Posted on: 12/4 1:12

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Sutherland

Re: Christmas Eve Concert. Midnight Mass. MOZART MISSA SOLEMNIS K337

#30

Home away from home

My pleasure. I often feel conflicted not attending mass at my local parish to go to the Cathedral. But I just love the Cathedral too much. So I go to three masses a year there, Christmas Eve, Easter and the Red Mass.

Posted on: 12/2 14:14

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