mike_s55 wrote:
I wrote this on the kannekt message board regarding all those who think they are geniouses by explaining exactly where the market is, truth is you never know, here is my post:

So for the last few years I visit the message boards from time to time and read the media, and all these "brilliant" opinionated people perdicting the direction of where and when and how much housing is going to crash and why you shouldnt own a home, as they crunch all the numbers. Ok so yes I do agree that housing is expensive and yes it is getting even more expensive over the last few years. So I definitely am real about expectations, am not a fool to thing prices will appreciate year over year etc.

What I wanted to point out though, in 2001 right after the dot com crash I decided to buy stock in Toll Brothers (TOL) and Hovnanian (HOV) both home builders. I didnt buy it because i had a crystal ball and crunch all these magical numbers being able to predict the future, i decided to buy this stock because in investors business daily i read about them because their relative strength looked good, P/E looked cheap, balance sheet etc. Absolutely no speculation at all. After i purchased the stock i would get caught up in reading the Yahoo Finance message boards. The boards were full of these "genious" predictors theorizing all these magical and fabulously complicated reasons as to why you should short the stock or sell all your shares because we are in a housing bubble and the real estate world was going to collapse. After reading those messages I got nervous and sold the stock. Unfortunately for me, the next 4 years proved to be an incredible time to own a home and the stock as i watched TOL and HOV go up in value both by almost 1000%.

I decided to revist those message boards the other day and got a huge kick out of how almost erriley similar those messages that back then scared me out of owning the stock are in 2001 about the housing bubble that exists and that everyone will be running for the exits, and the messages i read today in 2006. Here is a link to those message boards so that you can see what i am talking about.

Now i am not discrediting either sides arguments it is just appropriate for those doom sayers to step back, take a deep breath and observe how strickingly similar their arguments in 2001 were to today.


TOLL BROTHERS STOCK MESSAGE BOARD 2000-2002 with word bubble

http://betasearch.messages.yahoo.com/ ... Month=9&eDay=1&eYear=2002


HOVNANIAN STOCK MESSAGE BOARD 2001-2002 with word bubble

http://betasearch.messages.yahoo.com/ ... Month=9&eDay=1&eYear=2002

JoyOfSound wrote:
i checked out gull's cove online and spoke with their realtor.

you can buy a condo at pre-construction for 10% (of $380k for a 1-bedroom; $38,000), and not pay any mortgage or taxes until the unit is occupiable, which would be fall of 2007.

for flipping purposes, it seems that by the fall of 2007, the same unit could be worth maybe 100k MORE than the original purchase price.

it seems like a good investment to just flip the property, but i've never done such a large investment (i live in a unit i bought 2 years ago in journal square).

anyone have any experience with flipping condos? i was really considering buying one at gull's cove.

also, the realtor said it's four blocks from grove street path, though the original post said it was too far from the PATH....

pchops wrote:
It's important to offer your witness account. For example:
The last robbery (official term for mugging) at Hamilton Park had 1 witness who only saw the suspects for a fleeting moment. I went to Hamilton Park and did my own investigation and found a better witness who was in front of the victim for 2 blocks as the suspects followed them. This better witnenss did not come forward when the police arrived. Thus the fact that they were juveniles and the correct clothing description was lost.