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Re: New Jersey-New York area lost 5,700 millionaires in 2018
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THIS SEGMENT IS EXITING FOR THE SIMPLE FACT OF "DEMOCRATIC" RULE. NOTHING MORE. NUTTIN LESS !!!!! THANK YOU. "TheWheelman."

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Re: New Jersey-New York area lost 5,700 millionaires in 2018
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bodhipooh wrote:
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Sutherland wrote:
Then who is buying up all of this real estate? I realize the real estate market in NYC and some areas of NNJ have cooled in part. But that's in part because the numbers had reached super, super stratospheric heights. Still, even with the dip, prices are high and people are still buying expensive real estate. In Asbury Park at least 20 units in the Ocean Club sold for anywhere from $1mm to $5mm. Properties in JC are still moving as are properties in the several million mark in NYC. It seems to me there's plenty of money floating around.


A lot (most?) of the high end real estate in NYC/Manhattan is being snapped up by foreigners who don't have to pay state taxes on income. As the real estate market in NYC has remained hot for so long, people have been pushed out into other areas, such as the ones you point out in your message. In many ways, Jersey City, and much of NJ, has benefitted from the overly-hot NYC real estate market, as people leave NY and relocate here.

The problem with foreigners snapping up real estate (which is also a problem locally in JC, btw) is that it can artificially inflate a local market but those buying properties don't contribute to state coffers much, if at all. They are not subject to state income taxes, and property taxes are super low in NYC.


Bingo! If there is one thing about the high property taxes in New Jersey, all of these foreign buyers of luxury real estate are contributing fairly local coffers. One example is 99 Hudson. It recieved no abatement and will generate millions for the city, county and school board but will not consume much in the city of city services. How many school-aged children living in 99 Hudson will goto JC public schools? Slim to none.

Posted on: 1/16 14:13
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Re: New Jersey-New York area lost 5,700 millionaires in 2018
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Sutherland wrote:
Then who is buying up all of this real estate? I realize the real estate market in NYC and some areas of NNJ have cooled in part. But that's in part because the numbers had reached super, super stratospheric heights. Still, even with the dip, prices are high and people are still buying expensive real estate. In Asbury Park at least 20 units in the Ocean Club sold for anywhere from $1mm to $5mm. Properties in JC are still moving as are properties in the several million mark in NYC. It seems to me there's plenty of money floating around.


A lot (most?) of the high end real estate in NYC/Manhattan is being snapped up by foreigners who don't have to pay state taxes on income. As the real estate market in NYC has remained hot for so long, people have been pushed out into other areas, such as the ones you point out in your message. In many ways, Jersey City, and much of NJ, has benefitted from the overly-hot NYC real estate market, as people leave NY and relocate here.

The problem with foreigners snapping up real estate (which is also a problem locally in JC, btw) is that it can artificially inflate a local market but those buying properties don't contribute to state coffers much, if at all. They are not subject to state income taxes, and property taxes are super low in NYC.

Posted on: 1/16 1:51
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Re: New Jersey-New York area lost 5,700 millionaires in 2018
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K-Lo2 wrote:
Unless most of those millionaires were renters, someone (other than Dixon Leasing in one city) is buying all of that real estate. Odds are most of them are millionaires too. What don't I get?


It is well known that a lot of the high-end, costly NYC real estate (particularly Manhattan, and Brooklyn to some extent) is being snapped up by foreigners. Those people are buying properties but they are not contributing state taxes (since they are not residents) which is why real estate is not a very good indicator as to whether or not millionaires are leaving.

Posted on: 1/16 1:47
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Re: New Jersey-New York area lost 5,700 millionaires in 2018
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Unless most of those millionaires were renters, someone (other than Dixon Leasing in one city) is buying all of that real estate. Odds are most of them are millionaires too. What don't I get?

Posted on: 1/14 18:16
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Re: New Jersey-New York area lost 5,700 millionaires in 2018
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1) looking at just population numbers would not explain away the loss of 5700 millionaires. Those individuals probably did leave the area however there could also have been an influx of new residents exceeding 5700 that moved to the area. What we don't know if those new residents (which exceed 5700 because overall population increase) are or are not millionaires.
2) those "millionaires" leaving the area are most likely baby boomers that are now retiring and moving to warmer areas (e.g. FL or NC). This has been happening for years and will continue to happen. Let's admit, a million is not what it used to be. These retirees can have a million in assets easily taking into consideration their home and 401k. So, I think there is nothing new here to see except that people moving away just have hit the millionaire mark. I'm sure you could have made the same argument 30 years ago using the $500k threshold.

Posted on: 1/14 16:12
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Re: New Jersey-New York area lost 5,700 millionaires in 2018
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Then who is buying up all of this real estate? I realize the real estate market in NYC and some areas of NNJ have cooled in part. But that's in part because the numbers had reached super, super stratospheric heights. Still, even with the dip, prices are high and people are still buying expensive real estate. In Asbury Park at least 20 units in the Ocean Club sold for anywhere from $1mm to $5mm. Properties in JC are still moving as are properties in the several million mark in NYC. It seems to me there's plenty of money floating around.

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bodhipooh wrote:
I love reviving this thread every year, as annual data comes out that clearly repudiates the narrative pushed by Dolomiti and other so-called progressives who think you can continue to raise taxes on people year after year and that people will continue to take it.

From the thread below, the idea that taxes can spur people to leave NY/NJ was dismissed as a myth. Too bad the data does not fit that characterization.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-florid ... he-tax-relief-11578501325

https://nypost.com/2019/12/30/new-york ... -an-alarming-rate-report/

Posted on: 1/14 15:31
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Re: New Jersey-New York area lost 5,700 millionaires in 2018
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biggoron wrote:

My presumption is that people are leaving the rural parts of the state for which jobs and the weather (for upstate NY) are much bigger factors then taxes. In the urban areas across the country (NYC, SF, etc) I see housing prices as more of a problem then taxes or other factors, but I doubt cities and towns will allow for sufficient density to meet demand.


This makes sense, but there will be a day of reckoning. Jersey City is the one part of the NYC metro area allowing adequate supply to be built. There is probably going to be tens of thousands of people every year looking to escape the high rents and NYC resident income tax for a more affordable (compared to NYC) option in Jersey City.

Posted on: 1/14 11:24
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Re: New Jersey-New York area lost 5,700 millionaires in 2018
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Where in NY has been losing population? Googling "nyc population" shows an increase from 8.194M in 2010 to 8.623M in 2017. I am seeing Bloomberg show 8.2M in 2011 and 8.398 in 2018. Both numbers show an increase in population which is in contrast to NY State overall (which Google shows going from 19.58M to 19.54M).

The NY Post article (I do not have a wsj subscription) does not say where the loss is happening from, but it is unlikely from NYC, based on the above numbers. Judging by what friends of mine have been paying to purchase housing in the NYC suburbs, I doubt it is there either.

My presumption is that people are leaving the rural parts of the state for which jobs and the weather (for upstate NY) are much bigger factors then taxes. In the urban areas across the country (NYC, SF, etc) I see housing prices as more of a problem then taxes or other factors, but I doubt cities and towns will allow for sufficient density to meet demand.

Posted on: 1/14 3:06
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Re: New Jersey-New York area lost 5,700 millionaires in 2018
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I love reviving this thread every year, as annual data comes out that clearly repudiates the narrative pushed by Dolomiti and other so-called progressives who think you can continue to raise taxes on people year after year and that people will continue to take it.

From the thread below, the idea that taxes can spur people to leave NY/NJ was dismissed as a myth. Too bad the data does not fit that characterization.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-florid ... he-tax-relief-11578501325

https://nypost.com/2019/12/30/new-york ... -an-alarming-rate-report/

Posted on: 1/13 14:14
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Re: New Jersey-New York area lost 5,700 millionaires in 2018
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Dolomiti wrote:
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hero69 wrote:
i'm not surprised that many ultra rich people are moving to lower tax regions of the country.

Again, that rarely happens.

For example, let's say you're an investment banker at JPM. Are you going to quit and move to Florida solely to whack a few grand off your taxes?

As you get older (and are paid more, and accumulate more assets) you develop more ties to the community. Moving means taking kids out of school, leaving friends and family and business networks behind. It also means reducing or losing access to NYC, including all those job and business opportunities, cultural institutions, and so on.

If NJ announced tomorrow that it will tax incomes higher than $1 million at a 70% tax rate, that would motivate the 1%ers to leave. Are they going to move to Florida, because they want to pay a 1% property tax instead of 2.3%? I don't think so. They'll just hire a good accountant to reduce their tax liabilities.

The idea that people flee a state because of higher state taxes is not reality. It's a myth.


Myth, right? Or, perhaps the WSJ is just peddling some fake news? Or, why are the NY, NJ, and CT state governments freaking out over looming budget shortfalls they squarely blame on people fleeing the high taxes of their states?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/out-of-st ... lock-to-miami-11549325267

Posted on: 2019/2/7 22:32
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Re: New Jersey-New York area lost 5,700 millionaires in 2018
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Yvonne wrote:
I know a tax consultant who lost many clients to Pennsylvania. He raised the price of his services but it comes to a point where some businesses will leave.


Surely after selling that brownstone on Van Vorst Park you're a millionaire.

How can we help make the number 5,701?

Posted on: 2019/2/1 1:02
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Re: New Jersey-New York area lost 5,700 millionaires in 2018
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I know a tax consultant who lost many clients to Pennsylvania. He raised the price of his services but it comes to a point where some businesses will leave.

Posted on: 2019/2/1 0:49
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Re: New Jersey-New York area lost 5,700 millionaires in 2018
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Dolomiti wrote:
The idea that people flee a state because of higher state taxes is not reality. It's a myth.


And yet, lots of professionals tells us otherwise! NY and NJ rank among the top 5 states in losing residents, and the three main causes are: jobs (not so much a factor in the NYC area), weather, and, wait for it... COST (of which taxation is a part, of course.)

Even the economists that reject the notion that taxes lead to people moving in droves admit that at least some small percentage of millionaires do choose to leave because of taxes, and peg that number at 0.04% annually. Sounds small, until you consider that NY has ~865K millionaires, and NJ has ~250K of them. A 0.04% of that would be ~350 and ~100 annually. Those losses, over the span of many years, can add up to some serious money. Of course, other economists think the numbers are much higher. But yeah, this is all a myth.

Posted on: 2019/2/1 0:34
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Re: New Jersey-New York area lost 5,700 millionaires in 2018
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hero69 wrote:
i often hear about people fleeing the northern states for the cheaper southern areas


Right. Those people are called "retirees".

Posted on: 2019/1/31 1:51
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Re: New Jersey-New York area lost 5,700 millionaires in 2018
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stateaidguy wrote:

This conversation is about if a decline of the # of millionaires in NJ will have a fiscal impact on the State, so it is relevant that the top 1% of earners pay 43% of NJ's income taxes because a small drop in the high-earner population will have a disproportionate fiscal effect.

This is a back of the envelope estimate, but if the number of filers in NJ with $1 million or more in income fell by only 1,000 , it would be a loss of at least $100 million in income taxes, since those $1 million income people would pay (at least) an average $100,000 in income taxes each.

$100,000 x 1,000 = $100 million

We aren't talking about the "fairness" by progressive definition of the NJ tax code, where paying 43% of income taxes might be construed as "unfair" if the top 1% possesses more than 43% of the state's income.

However, the top 1% in NJ doesn't earn 43% of the money. I don't have the number, but it's a little less than that.


This conversation is about people with assets in excess of $1 million. You're confusing net worth with income. People with $1 million in assets (e.g. someone who owns a 2br condo in 77 Hudson or Crystal Pointe) typically makes far less than $1 million per year.
i tend to agree. i'm just curious as to what effect increases in minimal wages is having on state budgets and helping retain people. i often hear about people fleeing the northern states for the cheaper southern areas

Posted on: 2019/1/31 0:51
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Re: New Jersey-New York area lost 5,700 millionaires in 2018
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hero69 wrote:
i'm not surprised that many ultra rich people are moving to lower tax regions of the country.

Again, that rarely happens.

For example, let's say you're an investment banker at JPM. Are you going to quit and move to Florida solely to whack a few grand off your taxes?

As you get older (and are paid more, and accumulate more assets) you develop more ties to the community. Moving means taking kids out of school, leaving friends and family and business networks behind. It also means reducing or losing access to NYC, including all those job and business opportunities, cultural institutions, and so on.

If NJ announced tomorrow that it will tax incomes higher than $1 million at a 70% tax rate, that would motivate the 1%ers to leave. Are they going to move to Florida, because they want to pay a 1% property tax instead of 2.3%? I don't think so. They'll just hire a good accountant to reduce their tax liabilities.

The idea that people flee a state because of higher state taxes is not reality. It's a myth.

Posted on: 2019/1/31 0:09
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Re: New Jersey-New York area lost 5,700 millionaires in 2018
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stateaidguy wrote:

This conversation is about if a decline of the # of millionaires in NJ will have a fiscal impact on the State, so it is relevant that the top 1% of earners pay 43% of NJ's income taxes because a small drop in the high-earner population will have a disproportionate fiscal effect.

This is a back of the envelope estimate, but if the number of filers in NJ with $1 million or more in income fell by only 1,000 , it would be a loss of at least $100 million in income taxes, since those $1 million income people would pay (at least) an average $100,000 in income taxes each.

$100,000 x 1,000 = $100 million

We aren't talking about the "fairness" by progressive definition of the NJ tax code, where paying 43% of income taxes might be construed as "unfair" if the top 1% possesses more than 43% of the state's income.

However, the top 1% in NJ doesn't earn 43% of the money. I don't have the number, but it's a little less than that.


This conversation is about people with assets in excess of $1 million. You're confusing net worth with income. People with $1 million in assets (e.g. someone who owns a 2br condo in 77 Hudson or Crystal Pointe) typically makes far less than $1 million per year.

Posted on: 2019/1/30 17:52
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Re: New Jersey-New York area lost 5,700 millionaires in 2018
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i'm not surprised that many ultra rich people are moving to lower tax regions of the country. I just wonder if increases in minimum wages in northeast and west coast is helping these regions retain people/lower wage workers and perhaps helping the tax roll somewhat.

just wondering..something for you smarter people to opine on.

Posted on: 2019/1/30 0:18
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Re: New Jersey-New York area lost 5,700 millionaires in 2018
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JPhurst wrote:
States have been able to balance their budgets and fund necessary programs by raising taxes on the highest bracks. California and Minnesota are examples. Meanwhile, Kansas's experiment with uber-supply side economics fared poorly.

But it is equally true that.

a) Relying too much on high bracket income taxes makes a state more vulnerable to economic swings.

b) The money has to be spent wisely.


That last line... isn't that the big thing? Can we seriously say that the NJ government is spending our money wisely? From all available data and reports, we seem to have above average spending on just about everything. But, our roads are pretty crappy all around, our urban schools underperform badly, our infrastructure seems to be in decline, and corruption seems widespread and unchecked.

It is a hard pill to swallow to see other states do more with less, and with better results.

Posted on: 2019/1/26 16:16
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Re: New Jersey-New York area lost 5,700 millionaires in 2018
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States have been able to balance their budgets and fund necessary programs by raising taxes on the highest bracks. California and Minnesota are examples. Meanwhile, Kansas's experiment with uber-supply side economics fared poorly.

But it is equally true that.

a) Relying too much on high bracket income taxes makes a state more vulnerable to economic swings.

b) The money has to be spent wisely.

Posted on: 2019/1/26 15:48
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Re: New Jersey-New York area lost 5,700 millionaires in 2018
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Monroe wrote:
The top 1% of NJ taxpayers pay 43% of NJ income taxes.


A meaningless statistic without their percentage of NJ income earned.


Not sure, but given NJ’s income tax is very progressive I’m sure it’s even worse. Top earners pay quite a higher % than low earners.


This conversation is about if a decline of the # of millionaires in NJ will have a fiscal impact on the State, so it is relevant that the top 1% of earners pay 43% of NJ's income taxes because a small drop in the high-earner population will have a disproportionate fiscal effect.

This is a back of the envelope estimate, but if the number of filers in NJ with $1 million or more in income fell by only 1,000 , it would be a loss of at least $100 million in income taxes, since those $1 million income people would pay (at least) an average $100,000 in income taxes each.

$100,000 x 1,000 = $100 million

We aren't talking about the "fairness" by progressive definition of the NJ tax code, where paying 43% of income taxes might be construed as "unfair" if the top 1% possesses more than 43% of the state's income.

However, the top 1% in NJ doesn't earn 43% of the money. I don't have the number, but it's a little less than that.

Posted on: 2019/1/26 15:21
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Re: New Jersey-New York area lost 5,700 millionaires in 2018
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Dolomiti wrote:
The same research entity ("Wealth-X" -- who?) also indicated that NYC alone had nearly 1 million millionaires.


Yes, being a millionaire is not nearly as impressive as it once was. All it takes is having bought a nice house or apartment 20 or 30 years ago. Remember laughing at Dr Evil demanding a million dollars ransom? And that was quite some time ago.

Posted on: 2019/1/24 3:40
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Re: New Jersey-New York area lost 5,700 millionaires in 2018
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Dolomiti wrote:
The same research entity ("Wealth-X" -- who?) also indicated that NYC alone had nearly 1 million millionaires.


Yes, being a millionaire is not nearly as impressive as it once was. All it takes is having bought a nice house or apartment 20 or 30 years ago. Remember laughing at Dr Evil demanding a million dollars ransom? And that was quite some time ago.

Posted on: 2019/1/24 3:11
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Re: New Jersey-New York area lost 5,700 millionaires in 2018
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MDM wrote:
What happens when one billionaire moves to Florida: David Tepper blew a hole in the state budget.

New Jersey pulls in around $31 billion per year in taxes.

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that NJ's budget can handle an alleged 0.16% drop in annual tax revenues.

I'm gonna go out on another limb, and say that your typical billionaire will have all sorts of ways to reduce their state tax burden. Sure, Tepper paid a lot more in taxes than I did, but he didn't move his family and his multi-billion dollar hedge fund to Florida just to save a few million in taxes (that's a rounding error for him).

I'd also add that this kind of "volatility" in tax receipts is entirely normal. Tax receipts always rise and fall, usually based on how the (state) economy is performing; any legislator who expects tax revenues to be fully predictable is not paying attention. (In fact, as a percentage of total revenues, NJ relies less on income taxes than New York or California.)

I've gotta say, it sounds more to me like certain legislators want to suck up to a few billionaires.


By the way, for those who didn't read the article closely: The "5700 less millionaires" is not New Jersey. It's the NYC metro area -- i.e. it includes New York City. The same research entity ("Wealth-X" -- who?) also indicated that NYC alone had nearly 1 million millionaires.

Oh, and other sources point out that NJ has spent years adding millionaires (e.g. https://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/ ... millionaires_growing.html)

And of course, there is very little actual evidence that tax rates actually drive rich people to move. If that was the case, billionaires would be moving to Delaware and Nevada in droves.
(https://www.theguardian.com/inequality ... icts-millionaires-threats)

So, color me unimpressed about the claims that "zomg high taxes are driving rich people away!" It's a conservative myth.

Posted on: 2019/1/24 3:02
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Re: New Jersey-New York area lost 5,700 millionaires in 2018
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Based on what I have seen from some of my clients, there’s a real reason to worry: just like many companies have escaped the punishing economic realities of Manhattan for the lower rents of NJ real estate, many others have “discovered” that they can continue to operate just fine by relocating a large chunk of their operations to other states where taxes are lower, or non existent. The loss is not limited to just the corporate taxes, but it extends to the loss of personal income taxes from jobs that get relocated elsewhere and the accompanying spending of those individuals. It’s no coincidence that NY and NJ are leaders in net loss of residents.

Posted on: 2019/1/24 2:15
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Re: New Jersey-New York area lost 5,700 millionaires in 2018
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And if AOC gets her way, millionaires and billionaires will be moving offshore. Learn your lesson now before it's too late.

Posted on: 2019/1/24 1:40
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Re: New Jersey-New York area lost 5,700 millionaires in 2018
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What happens when one billionaire moves to Florida: David Tepper blew a hole in the state budget.



https://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/ ... budgeteers_the_audit.html


"Billionaire David Tepper, who Bloomberg estimated is worth $10.6 billion, relocated to Florida last year. Tepper moved his hedge fund, Appaloosa Management, to Florida this year."

"The acting treasurer said he'd read a media account that Tepper's tapping out of New Jersey could produce a $50 million hit to the budget. He didn't remember where he read it.

"This reality -- with such a small segment of the population driving (gross income tax) revenues and so much of the revenue collected so late in the fiscal year -- creates heightened volatility in tax receipts, severely increasing the complexity of the annual budgeting process," he said. "

Posted on: 2019/1/23 15:15
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Re: New Jersey-New York area lost 5,700 millionaires in 2018
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brewster wrote:
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Monroe wrote:
The top 1% of NJ taxpayers pay 43% of NJ income taxes.


A meaningless statistic without their percentage of NJ income earned.


Not sure, but given NJ’s income tax is very progressive I’m sure it’s even worse. Top earners pay quite a higher % than low earners.

Posted on: 2019/1/23 4:57
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Re: New Jersey-New York area lost 5,700 millionaires in 2018
#6
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Monroe wrote:
The top 1% of NJ taxpayers pay 43% of NJ income taxes.


I guess that number will be going down as the top 1 percenters come to their senses and move to a tax friendly state. Haha!!

What was the number before that billionaire hedge fund guy moved to Florida.

Posted on: 2019/1/22 23:51
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