Here it comes...



State regulators on Wednesday approved double-digit rate increases for four gas providers serving millions of customers in the state, with prices expected to rise by hundreds of dollars on an annualized basis for some people.

PSEG, which serves 1.9 million people across the state, was granted a nearly 25% increase, which would amount to a $256.38 a year hike to the "typical" residential bill, according to the state Board of Public Utilities. BPU commissioners also approved a 15.8%, $258.72 annual increase for New Jersey Natural Gas and its 568,000 ratepayers.

https://www.northjersey.com/story/news ... es-pseg-njng/66934128007/

I have a property in New England that I am worrying a bit about. The New England power grid with coal and nuclear being phased out is almost completely dependent on natural gas. The pipeline capacity was never expanded to provide enough gas to keep the lights on during cold periods. Blackouts were only avoided by switching over to no. fuel oil (power plants are generally dual fuel) and getting emergency imports of liquefied natural gas from Russia.

Fuel oil stocks are dangerously low due to shipping so much of it to Europe. Russia? Well.. not sure if that LNG shipment will be arriving this season, given the current political situation.

I am looking into a backup generator and one of these to heat the place:



Never thought I would see a manufactured energy crisis like we had back when I was a kid. Odd / Even day policies coming back regulating when you can get gas for your car?

at least we won't be as bad as what is happening in the UK

FYI:

Natural gas prices are up over 250% compared to last year. By some forecasts will be up 400%+ by mid-winter. Since NJ has been replacing coal and nuclear with natural gas, the price increases will raise electric rates dramatically as well.

If you have a commercial meter and haven't locked in a rate, you will see the cost increases soon. Residential meters, the increases will be phased in over time.


Last year gas supply rates were running at $0.30 to $0.45 per therm.




https://seekingalpha.com/news/3873898- ... -prices-near-record-highs

Interesting data coming out of the UK comparing vaccinated rates with hospitalization rates.






https://twitter.com/lchf_matt/status/1549974053766606850


Potential reasons for this in part is covered by MedCram. The virus spike protein has mutated significantly from the spike protein generated by the mRNA jabs. Possibly to the point of providing negative efficacy.

First NYC




Now this at the Paramus Park Mall

https://theridgewoodblog.net/ominous-s ... ramus-park-mall-shopping/

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$1,300+ per qtr for the one property I am not selling (I live in it). Going to give tenants notice that there is going to be a significant rent increase coming.

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So who is going to pay for this rehab?

From what I read earlier about the building, it is a wreck. So is it going to now sit vacant and deteriorate for years?

Bought a bunch from Novick Hardware on Central Ave in the Heights. $2.50 each, if you buy 8 or more.

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This was my second stop during my day of plant hunting. Good selection and relatively sane prices.

FYI for anyone looking to lock in a rate before kicking on your A/C this summer.

https://www.njenergyratings.com/ has a rate of $0.0123 kWh fixed for 3 months, which is a bit below what PSE&G is charging.

I haven't found a better rate yet.

If you have a commercial / house meter, take a look at your current rate. Commercial meters aren't as regulated and are subject to variable rate increases faster than residential meters.

For my house meter, the PSE&G rate is now 120% above my fixed rate (which expires soon).

Post here if you can find a natural gas rate under $0.50 per therm. I am seeing fixed rates well over $1 per therm. We are going back to the gas shortage prices back in the earl 00s!

My go to shop on JFK Blvd. is long gone and it looks like the place on Rt. 440 closed shop. Where do you buy plants these days. The big box stores are a bit pricey when it comes to something like a tomato plant.

Has JC school enrollment gone up or down since 2020?

News report:

Enrollment in New Jersey schools drops from 2020-2021 school year by 41,000


https://rumble.com/v109u8z-enrollment- ... school-year-by-41000.html

The report mentions suburban schools. Curious if the same trend is in the urban ones as well.

The only thing "fast" about Verizon's 5G upgrade around here is how quickly it drops calls..

In my and my wife's circle of contacts I know of over 10 deaths that happened generally within 2 weeks (most within 72 hours) of either the 2nd jab (Pfizer or Moderna) or the booster. The two most common causes was either "died in his/her sleep" or heart failure. Ages range from early 20s to early 70s. Most were in their 40s and 50s.

The last two were the husband of my wife's friend. Was double jabbed, then got COVID, recovered, then got the booster. Days later dropped dead from blood clots in the heart and the brain. Mid 40s, healthy, no prior or family history of cardiac issues.

My sister-in-law has heart and neurological damage. Her doctor finally admitted it is due to the vaccine (Pfizer). She can barely make it up a flight of stairs now and is undergoing all sorts of tests, including a D-Dimer, and is wearing a heart monitor. The chronic migraine headaches are no fun either for her. The kicker is because the clot shots are NOT FDA approved, she can't even apply for vaccine injury compensation. Her only recourse is the CIC, which is reserved for emergency use authorized treatments.

Those who apply for the CIC are not entitled to counsel. They have no right of appeal. There are no pain and suffering damages, substantial limits exist on actual economic damages, and a one-year (from the date of vaccination) statute of limitations applies by which a claim must be filed. The program has paid out less than 50 claims since it was formed. VAERS database recording for COVID vaccines over (as of 1/28/2022) 747,000 adverse reactions that includes 11,667 life-threatening events, 51,713 hospitalization, 10,527 deaths, and 12,235 permanent disabilities.

The lawsuits and political fallout over the coming decades is going to dwarf tobacco and asbestos combined.

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My latest water bill is a bit shocking due to the solid waste charge...

Models showing JC to be on the edge of an ice storm this Friday-Saturday, with heavier amounts north and west.

Note: Pink areas are ice:

Why wait until March? Why not drop the face mask farce now?

What I heard is that it was some guy threatening suicide. Why that required such a huge response? No idea..

Homeland security vehicles.. buildings caution taped off on Franklin Ave... Police road blocks..

any idea what is going on?

Updated Euro model. Northwest of us in particular looks like power line snapping amounts of freezing rain.

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I'll post the updated model runs this afternoon. The models right now show rain / sleet for us or a lot of freezing rain.

Last time we had freezing rain my bushes collapsed, blocking the sidewalk. That was a miserable mess to clean up.

Multiple models showing significant freezing rain, sleet, and snow coming at the end of this week. From the US model (which updated recently)

Freezing Rain:




Sleet:

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The issues are that the vehicles were unable to complete their routes due to battery life issues. In one case, the buses were equipped with diesel fired heaters as running the heat off battery drained it.

Stalls, stops and breakdowns: Problems plague push for electric buses



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You misread the data on the link you sent. "Renewables" are about 4% with about 1/4th coming from burning trash. EIA counts the bio portion of waste (paper, linen, food waste, sewage sludge) as part of the renewable pool.

Here is a breakout of the 2020 energy mix (data from EIA):




Here is the power mix over the past decade. You can see that solar hasn't risen much and wind is still basically a rounding error:





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Doing a thought experiment here: How much solar or wind would it take to replace natural gas, coal, and oil, based on 2020 EIA data?

For both solar and wind I am going to assume we have batteries available with infinite storage and a 100% efficiency. So there will be no need for 'buffering' (standby natural gas fired generators). I am also going to ignore the rest of the major issues with wind and solar such as: asynchronous generation (doesn't maintain frequency), lack of grid inertia, lack of reactive power, formation of destructive resonance, et.

Solar

The theoretical limit for silicon based solar PV panels is 32%. The best panels available hit 22%. In the real world, the panels operate at about 15% on average. I will assume 22% efficiency with no degradation over time or at high temperatures. NJ receives on average about 4.3 kWh/m2/day (0.935 kWh/ft2/day) in solar energy.

Using the above, you would need about 358 square miles of solar panels to replace fossil fuels.

Off-Shore Wind

The off-shore wind density per NYSERDA is 0.1 MW/acre. The capacity factor is 44% (per EIA). Turbines can't be packed densly or layered because the leading turbines will rob power from the aft turbines. So you are going to create a long line of these things.

How many? Well, the biggest ones deployed are rated at 6 MW. This means you will need over 600 turbines covering an area in excess of 128 square miles.

For illustration, here are the required areas put on a map. The big red circle is solar. The green off-shore is wind. The small red circle is the area required for a Generation 3+ nuclear plant (about 2,500 acres). The nuke has the additional advantage is that it avoids all the other issues with renewables listed earlier (i.e. grid inertia) and has no need for buffering or batteries.





Planning on running the world on wind and solar is magical thinking. It isn't going to happen. Trying to do so will only lead us to a life of energy poverty. See Europe as an unfolding example. Due to a persistent high pressure system (no wind) natural gas supplies were depleted to keep the lights on. Now there isn't enough gas in storage for winter and the forecast is for a colder than average winter.

The German government is posting PSAs on how to stay warm with clay pots and candles because they are facing rolling blackout (not enough gas to keep the light on). This is our future as well if we keep up with this "electrification" fantasy.

https://rmx.news/germany/heating-crisi ... blankets-and-tea-candles/

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Modern vehicles pollution (real pollutants like NOx, particulates, carbon monoxide, VOCs) are low as to not cause dangerous air quality issues. EVs are driven by the politics regarding CO2.

The whole driving force behind EVs is part of a bigger electrification goal:

The nation runs on "Carbon Free" wind and solar power by 2040 or 2050. There is a better chance of flapping your arms and flying to the moon than running the grid on intermittent solar and wind. We here in NJ had our electric bills raised by about 50% to pay for putting solar PV panels everywhere. Last I checked, solar accounts somewhere around 2% of all the power generated in the state. Natural gas is #1 followed by nuclear in the generation pool.

The only "Carbon Free" option for power generation is smashing atoms. You are going to need to build nukes.. a lot of them.

The Alternative:

Dimethyl Ether (DME)

DME is an isomer of ethanol and is a gas at atmospheric pressure. It is an excellent substitute for diesel fuel that offers the following advantages:

1. It is non-toxic (DME is used as a propellant in spray cans like deodorant).
2. If DME is spilled, it breaks down in less than 24 hours.
3. It is an oxygenated fuel and burns without soot. There is no need to use a filter on the truck exhaust.
4. It stores like propane (liquid under modest pressure) so there is no need to develop special technology to store it (this is a huge issue with hydrogen).

Downsides:

DME has a lower energy density than diesel. 1 gal of DME = 0.56 gal of diesel. However, this is not a deal killer. Volvo states a 600 mile cruising range on their trucks. The fill-ups are quick vs. hours of charge time for a battery.

DME powered vehicles exist

The vehicles are already commercially available. Volvo partnered with Delphi to develop the engines and are currently marketed in Europe. Volvo offers the vehicles through it subsidiary Mack Truck here in the USA. DME powered garbage trucks were successfully testes at the Fresh Kills landfill by the NY Dept. of Sanitation.

DME can be produced from the organic portions of the municipal waste stream. Organic portions is about 2/3rd of the waste stream by mass.

Rough back-of-the-napkin calcs:

JC has a population of about 293K which would produce about 585 tons of waste per day. That would translate into about 8 million gallons of DME per year. Jersey City could turn its own waste into fuel for its trucks with millions of gallons to spare.

Wasn't able to fix a typo in my previous post"

"The cost of upgrading will make electricity UNaffordable. "

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MJ = Mega-joules
1 MJ = 948 Btu
1kg = 2.2 lbs

Issue 1: Theoretical Energy Limits

The last big advance in battery storage was the introduction of the lithium-ion battery back in the '90s. Lead acid batteries can store about 0.1 MJ/kg. Li-ion batteries have hit 0.5 MJ/kg, which is a big improvements, but nowhere near what you get from fossil fuels. Diesel has about 45 MJ/kg, which means a Li-ion battery has less than 2% the energy density of diesel fuel. The theoretical-limit of Li-ion technology is about 3 MJ/kg. No technological advance is going beyond this point. There just aren't enough electrons available via oxidation beyond this point. So your limit on Li-ion is about 6% to 7% of diesel fuel.

This means you need a massive battery to get the similar performance and range. This is especially challenging in very hot and colder climates where battery performance drops dramatically. The batteries need to be heated and cooled to maintain performance. (which greatly increases the power drain). This problem is especially acute with trying to run large commercial equipment on a battery. Some examples:

Albuquerque’s $133-million electric bus system is going nowhere fast

Report: Philadelphia’s Proterra Fleet in Complete Shambles

Electric buses from Berliner BVG have a cold problem

Nikola and Republic Services scrap their electric garbage truck



Issue 2: Electric Infrastructure

The issues go beyond the long charge times, which may require having multiple trucks to do the work of what was done with one. Charging a number of large vehicles at a time means power draw in the megwatts level. Bottom line: The electric infrastructure (power lines, sub-stations, peaking power plants, etc.) doesn't exist to support electrification of transportation. The cost of upgrading will make electricity affordable. This is what is happening in Germany which needs to impose rationing of power, which includes vehicle charging stations.


Issue 3: Environmental

There is no way to run transportation on batteries without devastating environmental consequences.

It is easier to make new Li-ion batteries that recycle existing ones. Li-ion batteries typically end up in incinerators (Li-ion batteries are a major fire hazard in landfills). There is tech out there now that claims to recycle the lithium, but I have no idea if any of these processes are economically viable. As of now, electrification is driving a huge increase in the mining of lithium.

Beyond lithium you have a pressing need for cobalt, which is a transition metal used in Li-ion batteries. Cobalt is a much rarer / expensive metal and primarily comes from Africa.


Issue 4 - Safety

Li-ion batteries are bombs. The battery contains everything needed to burn on its own without an supply of oxygen. The fires are difficult to damn near impossible to put out. In Europe electric cars that catch fire are put in a tank of water for 72 hours before transporting to the dump. The reason is that the cars have re-caught fire while be towed to the junk yard. To make matters worse is that the fires are so intense they set the adjacent vehicles on fire as well. The chain reaction in a parking garage could take out a building.






The issues go beyond what I stated above. There is a commercially viable alternative, which I will put together a post on later.

This will end up being a very expensive mistake.