https://twitter.com/gourdnibler/status/1040678572262916096

Robin.

Its going to be tremendously big and tremendously wet.

Thanks to MDM for the precision updates.

For an antidote to the ritual hype and endless repetition of the Weather Channel reports on Florence, take a look at this comprehensive, beautifully illustrated analysis and forecast:

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Flor ... ain-Surge-and-Wind-Damage

As a lifelong and avid sailor I was particularly struck by its brief description of wave heights:
Wave heights to 83 ft were measured early this morning under the NE quadrant of Hurricane Florence. These enormous waves are produced by being trapped along with very strong winds moving in the same direction the storm's motion.
I'm glad this monster doesn't have any of us in its sights!

Latest model run showing what is left of Florence passing directly over us next week. Most of the rain though is North of us. Note: Gif ends before showing the storm reaching NYC metro area.





Estimated Rain Totals over the next 10 days:

So right now Florence looks for us just some rainy, crappy weather. For South Carolina to Virginia, this storm looks to be epic.

The models and the Weatherbell people show the storm coming in at a cat 4 and then stalling. Over the following 3 to 4 days, the region could see up to 4 feet of rain!

finger crossed it goes out to sea!

Latest forecast:




For us, what we get will depend how far inland Florence goes before it heads North. The GFS at one point put the center of the storm dead over top of us, with rain totals near 15 inches.

The Euro model puts the storm farther inland, sparing us the worst of the rain.

The 5 models I checked all show a major hurricane headed for the Carolinas.

Edit: The GFS now shows Florence stalling off North Carolina for about three days, then it appears to head out to sea.

Lucky for us - it now seems likely to be heading more toward the Carolinas.

ABC News: Florence expected to become major hurricane, risk to East Coast increasing.


https://abcnews.go.com/US/florence-exp ... reasing/story?id=57690921

Hurricane related website- technical with radar/weather pattern explanations that are really interesting (if you're in to that sort of thing ;)):

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Suggest a good weather app please?
I've used a Yahoo weather app on my phone and
it is seldom accurate.

Still, too close for comfort given the uncertainties in these long range models.

GFS updated this afternoon and no longer has Florence turning out to see. It biases though farther North than the Euro model, putting a weak Cat 2 landfall just North of the Chesapeake. This would direct storm surge into the Delaware bay.

If this scenario happened, we would be spared devastating winds and storm surge. The rain totals, would be impressive though.





The rest of the models update overnight.

Thanks for keeping us updated!

Weatherbell forecast updated as of this morning. Cat 4 with a cone from the Chesapeake down to South Carolina.

The models have been schizophrenic over the past two days. They can't figure out if the storm is going out to sea or heading for the East coast.

The Euro and the GFS had the storm as of yesterday going out to sea. Only the Canadian had it coming to the East coast. This morning, everything is back hitting or coming very near the East coast.

All three models put the storm at a Cat 2 when it gets near land Thursday - Friday.

The Canadian is slow moving storm which will make a rough surf, surge, and some rain storm for us.

The GFS is like the Canadian, but puts the storm a little farther South.

The Euro has the storm actually coming a shore, which later will bring a hell of a lot of rain, after the storm tracks North.


Canadian:




GFS:


\
Euro:

Near zero probability this storm gets anywhere near us. Time to close this thread.

It currently is a low probability that this one will come close to east coast.


https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/n ... e-florence-atlantic-ocean

I HATE hurricane season! Let's hope for a boring one.

Thanks, MDM. Please keep us posted. Your weather info is always interesting.

It?s pretty far away to worry about a ?milk and egger? though. I?m more concerned about the effects of pumpkin spice right now.

Time to batten down the hatches!!!!!!!

Multiple weather models are showing hurricane Florence showing up off the North American Eastern seaboard mid month. Unfortunately for us, there is a big blob of above normal temperature water off the coast, which can feed the hurricane energy.

The Weatherbell people think that the storm has a good chance of making it to the East coast due to the interactions with a high pressure system forming North of us.

Later this week, the Weatherbell crew thinks they will have a better handle on what is happening with the storm track. Hopefully, it will curve out to see before getting near us.