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Re: Here comes another one... Hurricane Matthew
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Posted on: 2016/10/6 15:54
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Re: Here comes another one... Hurricane Matthew
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This will keep the 'preppers' happy and those that believe it's an act of god - If you live in a Hurricane or Tornado corridor then welcome to a likely reality !

Posted on: 2016/10/5 21:24
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Re: Here comes another one... Hurricane Matthew
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It now seems likely to head out to sea after hitting the Carolinas.

http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/of ... ew-nears-florida-42579034


Posted on: 2016/10/5 14:42
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Anxiety High on US Coast as Residents Eye Hurricane Matthew
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Anxiety High on US Coast as Residents Eye Hurricane Matthew

By FREIDA FRISARO, ASSOCIATED PRESS MIAMI
Oct 4, 2016, 2:09 PM ET

Anxious Florida residents raided grocery store shelves and North Carolina called for the evacuation of three barrier islands as Hurricane Matthew ? the most powerful Atlantic storm in about a decade ? threatened to rake a large swath of the East Coast in the coming days.

The storm roared across the Caribbean on Tuesday, slamming into the western part of Haiti. While it's too soon to know if it will make a direct hit on Florida or somewhere else along the U.S. coast, Matthew is expected to create dangerous conditions. A hurricane watch was in place for parts of Florida, which was already seeing rain bands from the storm.

Simone Corrado and her husband tried to buy water at a Publix in their hometown of Davie, about 20 minutes from Miami Beach, and mostly found empty shelves. They were worried the roof of their garden-style apartment would leak during heavy rain.

"I got scared because all that was left at Publix was just the pricey water," Corrado said. "They really put the fear into you here. On the television screen every few minutes is the 'beep, beep, beep' storm alert."

Florida Gov. Rick Scott met with emergency officials along the coast, starting out in the Keys and traveling north. At a news conference in Daytona Beach, he noted that the storm's predicted path can change quickly.

"We can rebuild your home, we can rebuild your business. We can't rebuild your life," Scott said.

The dangerous Category 4 storm blew ashore around dawn in a corner of Haiti where many people live along the coast in shacks of wood or simple concrete blocks. At least seven people have died from Matthew's march through the Caribbean. The storm was headed north over the Bahamas and expected to brush the Florida coast.

A tropical storm watch was issued from Seven Mile Bridge in the Florida Keys to Deerfield Beach, north of Fort Lauderdale. A hurricane watch is in place further north.

"We are preparing for the worst, hoping for the best and not taking any chances," Scott said as he visited with emergency management officials in the Florida Keys.

The governor urged residents along the Interstate 95 corridor to start making preparations, which include having at least a three-day supply of water, food and medicine. He also asked residents to comply with any evacuation orders from local officials as the week progresses.

"Make sure you have a fully charged cellphone," Scott said. "If we lose power, you cannot charge your cellphones."

Scott noted that many people have moved to South Florida since Hurricane Wilma hit as a Category 3 storm in 2005. Matthew briefly reached the top classification, Category 5, becoming the strongest hurricane in the region since Felix in 2007.

President Barack Obama was updated on the path of Hurricane Matthew and its potential impact in the Caribbean and the United States, White House spokesman Josh Earnest said Tuesday. Federal officials have been deployed to state emergency operations centers in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina and relief supplies have been prepositioned in the region.

North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory declared a state of emergency, in part to immediately help farmers clear their fields of crops already affected by heavy rain over the last two weeks. He said he doesn't want other crops ruined, so restrictions on truck weights and hours of service would be lifted under the emergency declaration to allow farmers to take their harvest to market.

At Cape Lookout National Seashore in North Carolina, superintendent Patrick Kenney said more than 100 trucks were being taken off the island and about 45 cabins were being cleared.

Ferry operators told Kenney it will take two days to evacuate everyone, meaning the islands should be empty sometime Wednesday.

???

Associated Press writer Jennifer Kay in Miami Beach and Martha Waggoner in Raleigh, North Carolina, contributed to this report.

Posted on: 2016/10/4 18:50
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Re: Here comes another one... Hurricane Matthew
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Still a lot of variation on what happens after NC. GFS is saying westward, Euro is saying out to sea.

Generally predicted to lose a lot of steam in the next 5 days, though:
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane ... tthew?map=model_intensity

Posted on: 2016/10/4 0:01
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Re: Here comes another one... Hurricane Matthew
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Monday, the long-term forecast for Florida took a bleak turn.

In their Monday evening advisory, National Hurricane Center forecasters said computer models have shifted Matthew?s track westward after three days, putting Florida and the U.S.?s southeast coast at greater risk

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weath ... 722751.html#storylink=cpy

Posted on: 2016/10/3 22:09
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Re: Here comes another one... Hurricane Matthew
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The latest Euro model:


Resized Image

Posted on: 2016/10/2 19:25
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Re: Here comes another one... Hurricane Matthew
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Quote:

fraulein wrote:
What's the latest MDM?



The Weatherbell people track takes rather far off shore as it tracks up the coast, which follows the latest Euro model (I haven't posted it). The storm is expected to re-intensify up to a Cat 4 after leaving the Caribbean.

However, they are concerned of a second tropical storm forming in the Atlantic. The effect of that storm could push Matthew farther West. Per Weatherbell.. not enough to hit us, but to cause issues in the Carolinas.

Posted on: 2016/10/2 19:04
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Re: Here comes another one... Hurricane Matthew
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What's the latest MDM?

Posted on: 2016/10/2 18:50
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Re: Here comes another one... Hurricane Matthew
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Model Roundup:

The Euro shows the storm staying huge and making a hard right turn out to sea:


Resized Image



The Canada model has it running closer to shore and then coming on land up in Maine. GFS and Euro were updated more recently than this model:

Resized Image




The GFS is as usual, the harbinger of DOOM! It resembles the Canadian, but with a classic Nor'easter track up the East coast:

Resized Image



NASA's system is showing something completely different. It is showing the hurricane parking itself over central Florida (couldn't get the animation to run.. so only a still shot):

Resized Image



From Meteorologist Joe Bastardi:

The Euro has thrown down the gauntlet again as it was a year ago on this run that I shifted our forecast package out to sea with Joaquin. This was at 5 am Oct 1 and one can plainly see that was not what was being forecasted by NHC

But it was the 00z Thursday run that was the second in a row that took this out to sea

The Euro ensemble continues further east than both the operational GFS and its ensembles

The highest probability can be clearly seen above. The GFS is a huge US problem

I have heard that since Joaquin, changes were made. Well the test is here. I am very skeptical of the euro with the trough off the east coast in the 5-10, but the waterloo of this is in the coming 5 days as it has the hurricane coming at Haiti, not Jamaica!

So we should have our answer as if this comes up the Euro path tomorrow and Monday which is EAST of the GFS, that should be it.. even with more ridge off the east coast, it does not come back as far west as the GFS


Posted on: 2016/10/1 12:50
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Re: Here comes another one... Hurricane Matthew
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Oh boy - Matthew somewhat unexpectedly went to a Cat 5 - the first in the Atlantic in 9 years.

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/Jeff ... omment.html?entrynum=3454

While this is rather scary, the path remains wildly uncertain. Fearmongers will start running their mouths. I particularly look at Jonathan at WeatherNJ.com. That joker ran a piece on Sept 3 about how everyone in the barrier islands should evacuate because of Hermine. There was no indication of that sort of movement - he just wanted to be right when everyone else was wrong. Jackass deleted it from his site. Here's the cached edition:

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com ... sept-3-you-heard-me-gtfo/

We really won't know whether the track remotely affects us for a couple of days. Don't let the private forecasters (who are damn good generally) get you wound up as they gamble on being "the one who called it."


---

Posted on: 2016/10/1 4:49
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Re: Here comes another one... Hurricane Matthew
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The Gulfstream that drops sensors, adding at least 20% accuracy, has been out of service for the last 6 weeks. The result is a move towards conservative forecasts by most weather services.

This is way too early to predict and the top guy at Wunderground is suggesting the agreement in the GFS might be the result of a flaw. There are a ton of interesting factors. Here is his post from this morning:

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/Jeff ... omment.html?entrynum=3452


Posted on: 2016/9/30 18:38
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Re: Here comes another one... Hurricane Matthew
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By "proved correct" I meant that it turned out in that instance, i.e. Sandy, to be correct, not that it was proven to be infallible.

Posted on: 2016/9/30 17:44
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Re: Here comes another one... Hurricane Matthew
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I also appreciate the heads-up that MDM provides - I rather know it earlier (and turns out to be nothing), than know it too late and get to Shoprite after they've run out of chicken!

Posted on: 2016/9/30 16:41
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Re: Here comes another one... Hurricane Matthew
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didn't anyone see the tweetstorm donald unleashed yhis morning. wow. talk about crazy!

Posted on: 2016/9/30 16:39
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Re: Here comes another one... Hurricane Matthew
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Quote:

MDM wrote:
Quote:

GrovePath wrote:


MDM -- what are the odds and what is the time frame we are looking at -- I like having advance notice.



That screen shot is 8 days from now. The tracks showing a close to shore run are a tropical storm, not a hurricane. The water has cooled down a lot, so less energy to feed a storm.


I'm concerned about welfare of the fish in the Atlantic Ocean - out to sea where the storm is headed. Is there some way to warn them MDM?

Posted on: 2016/9/30 15:46
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Re: Here comes another one... Hurricane Matthew
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Quote:

jcneighbor wrote:
It's got a long way to go but the models get better every year. I found this one of interest:

Resized Image


Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn! The old one! Cthulhu rises!

Posted on: 2016/9/30 15:10
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Re: Here comes another one... Hurricane Matthew
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Mao wrote:
In Sandy, was n't it the Euro model that proved correct?


I believe it was the most accurate model, but I would not say this means it was "proved correct."

If I recall correctly, this is the most inaccurate model on average. In any event, if it was wrong once I wouldn't say this means it proved incorrect.

Posted on: 2016/9/30 14:52
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Re: Here comes another one... Hurricane Matthew
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tern wrote:
Has anyone checked the chicken levels at Shoprite?

Robin.


What about the Spam levels?

Posted on: 2016/9/30 13:16
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Re: Here comes another one... Hurricane Matthew
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In Sandy, was n't it the Euro model that proved correct?

Posted on: 2016/9/30 13:03
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Re: Here comes another one... Hurricane Matthew
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I swear if this hurricane cancels Beyonce I am going to lose it!

Posted on: 2016/9/30 11:33
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Re: Here comes another one... Hurricane Matthew
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Has anyone checked the chicken levels at Shoprite?

Robin.

Posted on: 2016/9/30 11:30
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Re: Here comes another one... Hurricane Matthew
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Greatly appreciate the info, MDM. I've learned a lot from you! Please keep this updated.

Posted on: 2016/9/30 3:02
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Re: Here comes another one... Hurricane Matthew
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Yep, pretty annoying fear mongerer. Break out the models.

Posted on: 2016/9/30 2:59
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Re: Here comes another one... Hurricane Matthew
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Quote:

Dolomiti wrote:
Quote:

GrovePath wrote:
Quote:

Dolomiti wrote:
Quote:

MDM wrote:
The Euro model has the storm going far enough out that it will only impact eastern Long Island with any significance.

It is way too early to predict its path with any certainty.

Let's give the fear-mongering a rest for a few days, shall we?


MDM -- what are the odds and what is the time frame we are looking at -- I like having advance notice.

No one can give you accurate numbers. Seriously. It's too early.

Just watch the news in a few days.


Oh goodness, here we go with this again.

I agree, any discussion about where this thing may make landfall or brush the NE coast is ridiculous hype and just wrong. I don't give a crap who's forecasting it even if they guessed right on Sandy 10 days out (how many have they got wrong, funny how people forget those.)

Start paying attention on Monday and enjoy your weekend.



Posted on: 2016/9/30 1:17
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Re: Here comes another one... Hurricane Matthew
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Quote:

GrovePath wrote:


MDM -- what are the odds and what is the time frame we are looking at -- I like having advance notice.



That screen shot is 8 days from now. The tracks showing a close to shore run are a tropical storm, not a hurricane. The water has cooled down a lot, so less energy to feed a storm.

Posted on: 2016/9/30 0:32
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Re: Here comes another one... Hurricane Matthew
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Quote:

GrovePath wrote:
Quote:

Dolomiti wrote:
Quote:

MDM wrote:
The Euro model has the storm going far enough out that it will only impact eastern Long Island with any significance.

It is way too early to predict its path with any certainty.

Let's give the fear-mongering a rest for a few days, shall we?


MDM -- what are the odds and what is the time frame we are looking at -- I like having advance notice.

No one can give you accurate numbers. Seriously. It's too early.

Just watch the news in a few days.

Posted on: 2016/9/30 0:27
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Re: Here comes another one... Hurricane Matthew
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Quote:

Dolomiti wrote:
Quote:

MDM wrote:
The Euro model has the storm going far enough out that it will only impact eastern Long Island with any significance.

It is way too early to predict its path with any certainty.

Let's give the fear-mongering a rest for a few days, shall we?


MDM -- what are the odds and what is the time frame we are looking at -- I like having advance notice.

Posted on: 2016/9/30 0:22
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Re: Here comes another one... Hurricane Matthew
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MDM wrote:
The Euro model has the storm going far enough out that it will only impact eastern Long Island with any significance.

It is way too early to predict its path with any certainty.

Let's give the fear-mongering a rest for a few days, shall we?

Posted on: 2016/9/30 0:02
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Re: Here comes another one... Hurricane Matthew
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It's got a long way to go but the models get better every year. I found this one of interest:

Resized Image

Posted on: 2016/9/29 23:58
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