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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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Quote:

slim26 wrote:
All I'm saying is instead of completely disregarding the forecasts and warnings that some are trying to give, based on past recent experiences, it may be very worthwhile to have a disaster plan in the case it does happen for the 3rd time in very recent history.

I know my block was a 6 foot raging river and had no power for 2 weeks - so instead of saying it likely isn't going to happen, things like getting gas and being prepared to move anything important to higher floors, and moving your car to higher ground if you are in a low laying area like southern part of Grove Street and nearby side roads like York -- all are things to at least plan to have in place so the place isn't a nut house on Saturday.

Quote:

JCMan8 wrote:
Quote:

slim26 wrote:
People are joking a little much over this one. Perhaps they haven't experienced or remember that we had 2 significant storms that in the past 5 years that have ravaged parts of Jersey City including my place on York that had to have the downstairs apartment completely destroyed twice.

You never know and better to have a disaster plan in place just in case it happens again.


I don't think anyone is joking about this. People are saying it is an utter waste of time to focus on forecasts so prematurely, as they are notoriously unreliable until you get closer to the event. In fact, looks like that's what's going to happen here.

Now I understand why people like obsessing over these forecasts well in advance of when the storm would hit (despite their unreliability). It injects drama and excitement into their lives. It generates clicks because people think what if it actually happens? It's essentially a form of entertainment.

If you want to indulge, by all means go ahead. I think that's what the majority of this thread consists of, and there's nothing wrong with it per se.

But there is a problem when you want to accuse the rational people who don't need to engage in this form of entertainment as being somehow irresponsible or failing to treat a possible event with the seriousness it deserves. Like I said, wait until two days before and then see what the forecasts say. Then you will be receiving news instead of entertainment.


The storm was supposed to hit on Monday, not Saturday. Saturday is when you start looking at the forecasts if you want to see if there is a realistic chance it will actually happen. Looking when this thread was first posted is what is meaningless. I called it entertainment, but for those who stress about it we can say "spinning your wheels."

Your point about a disaster plan is irrelevant. Living in a flood zone, you should always have a disaster plan ready. Not wait until now to come up with it. Assuming you are responsible and already have a plan in place, look at the Saturday forecasts and determine what, if anything you should follow in your plan.

Posted on: 2015/10/1 15:57
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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If you live in a flood zone you should be very worried. The rain alone is going to flood many basement apts.

Posted on: 2015/10/1 15:54
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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Quote:

JCMan8 wrote:
It's essentially a form of entertainment.


If this is entertainment then it's the world's shittiest form of entertainment, I'm pretty stressed over the possibilities (though it is looking a little better at this very moment). While you are technically correct about the forecast not being solid until 2 days before, some people have lives that will very much be disrupted (at the least) if the big storm hits and it is good to at least be mentally prepared and start making checklists of things to do just in case. If you wait until 2 days out and they say it's headed straight for NJ then the lines to get gas/propane/rope/batteries/etc start getting harder to navigate, not to mention prepping basements and yards for winds and/or flooding. Trust me, I'd be thrilled to have purchased a bunch of stuff I don't need to use this weekend.

For some people this might be a fun diversion, but for others it most certainly isn't.

Posted on: 2015/10/1 15:52
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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All I'm saying is instead of completely disregarding the forecasts and warnings that some are trying to give, based on past recent experiences, it may be very worthwhile to have a disaster plan in the case it does happen for the 3rd time in very recent history.

I know my block was a 6 foot raging river and had no power for 2 weeks - so instead of saying it likely isn't going to happen, things like getting gas and being prepared to move anything important to higher floors, and moving your car to higher ground if you are in a low laying area like southern part of Grove Street and nearby side roads like York -- all are things to at least plan to have in place so the place isn't a nut house on Saturday.

Quote:

JCMan8 wrote:
Quote:

slim26 wrote:
People are joking a little much over this one. Perhaps they haven't experienced or remember that we had 2 significant storms that in the past 5 years that have ravaged parts of Jersey City including my place on York that had to have the downstairs apartment completely destroyed twice.

You never know and better to have a disaster plan in place just in case it happens again.


I don't think anyone is joking about this. People are saying it is an utter waste of time to focus on forecasts so prematurely, as they are notoriously unreliable until you get closer to the event. In fact, looks like that's what's going to happen here.

Now I understand why people like obsessing over these forecasts well in advance of when the storm would hit (despite their unreliability). It injects drama and excitement into their lives. It generates clicks because people think what if it actually happens? It's essentially a form of entertainment.

If you want to indulge, by all means go ahead. I think that's what the majority of this thread consists of, and there's nothing wrong with it per se.

But there is a problem when you want to accuse the rational people who don't need to engage in this form of entertainment as being somehow irresponsible or failing to treat a possible event with the seriousness it deserves. Like I said, wait until two days before and then see what the forecasts say. Then you will be receiving news instead of entertainment.

Posted on: 2015/10/1 15:51
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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Quote:

slim26 wrote:
People are joking a little much over this one. Perhaps they haven't experienced or remember that we had 2 significant storms that in the past 5 years that have ravaged parts of Jersey City including my place on York that had to have the downstairs apartment completely destroyed twice.

You never know and better to have a disaster plan in place just in case it happens again.


I don't think anyone is joking about this. People are saying it is an utter waste of time to focus on forecasts so prematurely, as they are notoriously unreliable until you get closer to the event. In fact, looks like that's what's going to happen here.

Now I understand why people like obsessing over these forecasts well in advance of when the storm would hit (despite their unreliability). It injects drama and excitement into their lives. It generates clicks because people think what if it actually happens? It's essentially a form of entertainment.

If you want to indulge, by all means go ahead. I think that's what the majority of this thread consists of, and there's nothing wrong with it per se.

But there is a problem when you want to accuse the rational people who don't need to engage in this form of entertainment as being somehow irresponsible or failing to treat a possible event with the seriousness it deserves. Like I said, wait until two days before and then see what the forecasts say. Then you will be receiving news instead of entertainment.

Posted on: 2015/10/1 15:32
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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I wonder if new restaurants in basement levels are aware of flooding or sewer backup?

BROA 297 Grove St

http://www.yelp.com/biz_photos/broa-j ... ct=RmQw8E5Ul6LL_WvkWgZTwQ

Posted on: 2015/10/1 15:30
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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then learn your lessons: don't live (or don't have anyone else live) in a basement/ below grade in downtown jersey city or hoboken. don't complain about destroyed living spaces in basements; they were never meant to be living spaces!!! after 2 storms i don't pity anyone getting flooded.

Posted on: 2015/10/1 15:28
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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People are joking a little much over this one. Perhaps they haven't experienced or remember that we had 2 significant storms that in the past 5 years that have ravaged parts of Jersey City including my place on York that had to have the downstairs apartment completely destroyed twice.

You never know and better to have a disaster plan in place just in case it happens again.

Posted on: 2015/10/1 15:07
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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So, it sounds like I won't need to go to the supermarket today and clean out all the shelves?

Posted on: 2015/10/1 14:30
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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Joe Bastardi has changed his forecast. He is now predicting the storm going out to sea, east of the latest GFS track. The majority of other forecasts though are still predicting a hit (N. Carolina to the NYC metro area.. depending on the model).

The storm is now headed towards Cat 4 status. Even if it misses us, its going to kick up some serious surf along the coast.

Posted on: 2015/10/1 14:27
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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Models! We have Models!

They really do not agree with each other:

The Canadian model now pretty much agrees with GFS from yesterday. GFS though, shows the storm shifting way East, sending the hurricane far enough off it pretty much is just a severe Nor'Easter for us. I imagine there will be some really powerful surf and a good sized storm surge, especially for Long Island.

The Canadian model shows the storm passing right over us, but well after coming ashore in N. Carolina as a Cat 2 hurricane.

The GFDL model is the impending doom version. It shows a more powerful hurricane Sandy, but impacting the Chesapeake, Philly, South Jersey region. This would give us here a really powerful Nor'Easter.

The Euro model (again.. which is the only one that correctly predicted Sandy) still has the storm going well out to sea. We hardly get any rain up here in the NYC metro area with this mode.

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Posted on: 2015/10/1 12:24
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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Thanks...All the best meteorologists come from Penn State -- I find AccuWeather is best.
Quote:

MDM wrote:
After listening to a presentation by Joe Bastardi (a pretty good meteorologist with an unfortunate last name), he seems to be warming to the Euro model..

Posted on: 2015/10/1 1:50
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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I'll post more model runs tomorrow morning, after having my coffee.

Right now, nothing much has changed. The majority of the models show the storm hitting North Carolina / Virginia as a Cat 2. The European model still shows it going out to sea.

After listening to a presentation by Joe Bastardi (a pretty good meteorologist with an unfortunate last name), he seems to be warming to the Euro model showing the storm taking a hard right turn out to sea.

The Euro model was the only one that got Sandy correct. The US and Canadian models had Sandy taking hard right instead of turning left and drowning us in a storm surge.

Posted on: 2015/10/1 1:24
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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jcneighbor wrote:
MDM, Just wanted to say THANKS for the exceptional info and frequent updates. You're doing us all a great service on this-


+1 - thank you!

Posted on: 2015/9/30 23:41
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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MDM wrote:
Quote:

CaptainOats wrote:

Any chance you can post the moisture rather than the wind speeds? I'd love to see where the plume is Friday evening through Saturday with the latest runs.


GFS and the Canadian model



From The GFS Model. Total Precip over the next 10 days:



Awesome. Thank you!

Posted on: 2015/9/30 20:09
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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CaptainOats wrote:

Any chance you can post the moisture rather than the wind speeds? I'd love to see where the plume is Friday evening through Saturday with the latest runs.


GFS and the Canadian model



From The GFS Model. Total Precip over the next 10 days:

Resized Image


Resized Image

Posted on: 2015/9/30 20:01
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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MDM, Just wanted to say THANKS for the exceptional info and frequent updates. You're doing us all a great service on this-

Sandy had the edge of the Atlantic Ocean to within 2 blocks of my house and here in Downtown the sewers were under intense pressure. I'm more of a "Be Prepared" kind of guy (good Boy Scout than pessimist, but I've been through enough hurricanes (and 1 typhoon while tent camping in Japan) to know better than to be complacent...

Posted on: 2015/9/30 19:49
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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MDM wrote:
Out of five weather models:

4 show a Cat 2 hurricane making landfall between N. Carolina and Virginia. It just becomes a rain event for us. Down south (Carolinas) though, some areas will get 20+ inches of rain.

The one outlier is the European model that even after the last update, still shows the hurricane banking to the east and going out to sea.

The pessimist in me thinks, "what if the actual course is something in the middle, bringing to storm right to us?" Models update again late this evening. Below is one model that represents pretty much what the majority shows (GFS has the storm making land farther south though). The second is the Euro.



Any chance you can post the moisture rather than the wind speeds? I'd love to see where the plume is Friday evening through Saturday with the latest runs.

Posted on: 2015/9/30 19:36
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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Out of five weather models:

4 show a Cat 2 hurricane making landfall between N. Carolina and Virginia. It just becomes a rain event for us. Down south (Carolinas) though, some areas will get 20+ inches of rain.

The one outlier is the European model that even after the last update, still shows the hurricane banking to the east and going out to sea.

The pessimist in me thinks, "what if the actual course is something in the middle, bringing to storm right to us?" Models update again late this evening. Below is one model that represents pretty much what the majority shows (GFS has the storm making land farther south though). The second is the Euro.

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Posted on: 2015/9/30 19:32
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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Sorta unrelated, I find the visual for the cone and the storm's potential path to be incredibly misleading. They center the hurricane icon in the middle of the cone, which leads you to believe that's where the eye/hurricane is headed to make landfall. Instead, they should just remove the icon and show the cone.

Posted on: 2015/9/30 17:03
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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Updated GFS:

The hurricane turns West much farther South and makes landfall at a lower intensity:


Resized Image

Posted on: 2015/9/30 16:26
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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super_furry wrote:
By Stephen Stirling | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com
Email the author | Follow on Twitter
on September 30, 2015 at 9:15 AM, updated September 30, 2015 at 9:56 AM

Overnight forecast models coalesced around an East Coast landfall late this weekend for now Hurricane Joaquin. While much uncertainty remains about the exact track and intensity of the storm, the forecast is significantly more dire for New Jersey than it was 24 hours ago.

More at:

http://www.nj.com/weather/index.ssf/2 ... 2box_nj-homepage-featured


They are fear mongering. This is what news agencies do to get ratings and clicks.

Forecasts are notoriously unreliable this far away. Start paying attention to what they say on Friday.

Posted on: 2015/9/30 14:41
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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By Stephen Stirling | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com
Email the author | Follow on Twitter
on September 30, 2015 at 9:15 AM, updated September 30, 2015 at 9:56 AM

Overnight forecast models coalesced around an East Coast landfall late this weekend for now Hurricane Joaquin. While much uncertainty remains about the exact track and intensity of the storm, the forecast is significantly more dire for New Jersey than it was 24 hours ago.

More at:

http://www.nj.com/weather/index.ssf/2 ... 2box_nj-homepage-featured

Posted on: 2015/9/30 14:29
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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And FYI, according to Jeff Masters, you can't trust Canadians :)

"According to the 2014 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report, issued in March 2015, in 2014 we had two track models that at times out-performed the official NHC forecast, a feat that is tough to do. NOAA's HWRF model did slightly better than the NHC official forecast for 2-day and 3-day forecasts, while the UK Met Office's forecast did slightly better than NHC's 4-day and 5-day forecasts. Once again, the European Center (ECMWF) and GFS models excellent performers, but the GFDL model, a excellent performer in recent years, had substantially poorer forecasts than the other four models. The Canadian CMC model and simple BAMM model had accuracies comparable to the GFDL model. The European Center model and GFS models were virtually tied as the best performing models when averaged over the three-year period 2012 - 2014."

Posted on: 2015/9/30 13:05
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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Latest and greatest as of this morning. Three models:

European model show the storm heading out to sea

GFS shows it slamming into the N. Carolina / Virgina and giving us a lot of rain.

Canadian show it hitting Delaware / South Jersey. Before it was a worse case scenario for us out of the three models.

This is better (for us) than what was being shown last night. Much worse for the people on the Delaware / Chesapeake bay areas. One model is showing 50+ft waves in the Chesapeake bay area as the storm makes landfall.

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Posted on: 2015/9/30 12:51

Edited by MDM on 2015/9/30 13:06:44
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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Quote:

LoKo498 wrote:
I think this might of been really bad if it happened within the last 2 days when there was the full moon. Probablly won't be bad at all but we could definitely use some rain. Let's hope the city will be out cleaning up the corners by the streets & cleaning out the catch basins to prevent flooding.


Agreed. The most important number aside from rainfall is the height of the storm surge. That's what may flood low-lying areas and cause all the sewers to back up.

Posted on: 2015/9/30 11:32
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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We needed some rain. What worries me is that there is not much media hype about this. Thats when it usually is bad!!

Posted on: 2015/9/30 5:34
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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MDM wrote:
Quote:

JC_Man wrote:

Which past two winter storms would that be - the (non)- Blizzard of 2015. How quickly we forget.


I said winter forecasts.. not winter storms. NOAA had last winter as milder than usual. These guys had it much much colder than normal.

As for the two winter storms.. the prediction was a right turn out to sea.. which is what happened, dumping snow only on eastern Long Island.

Anyway.. we will all have a pretty good idea what is going to happen on Friday.


Should they shutdown the NYC Subway on Friday like they did this past winter?

Posted on: 2015/9/30 2:50
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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I think this might of been really bad if it happened within the last 2 days when there was the full moon. Probablly won't be bad at all but we could definitely use some rain. Let's hope the city will be out cleaning up the corners by the streets & cleaning out the catch basins to prevent flooding.

Posted on: 2015/9/30 1:37
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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Quote:

MDM wrote:
Brewster... man your bilge pumps! The JC sewer system as usual probably won't handle it all...


The sewers can barely manage 1/2" of rain. My pumps stay online 24/7, but with this summer of no rain I've gotten sloppy and there's a ton of crap all over the basement floor. Now I gotta take time from my 3 renovations to tidy the basement? Damn.

Storms of the century are on a 3 year schedule...please lets not have more morons talking about building reefs in the middle of NY harbor.

Posted on: 2015/9/29 23:51
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