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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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Posted on: 2015/10/3 19:47
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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I do feel bad for SC who's getting hammered with rain. They're calling for 1 inch over the next 7 days now for us.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1443742120

Posted on: 2015/10/1 23:29
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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From this evening's model updates:

GFS and the Euro model show the hurricane missing us by hundreds of miles.

Both model however, show a big Nor Easter forming off South Carolina and moving up the coast. So we are going to have 4 days of gales, rain, ad 14ft+ surf. Not fun.. but a hell of a lot better than a Cat 2 / 3 Storm.

Below is the GFS rain totals from the Nor' Easter:


Resized Image

Posted on: 2015/10/1 23:21

Edited by MDM on 2015/10/1 23:40:07
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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Quote:

Voyeur wrote:
Quote:

SRhia wrote:
Quote:

meowmix wrote:
A refresher for those of us who have mentally blocked out our Sandy experience: What were the factors that made Sandy so damaging to Jersey City?


I think it was a combination of high tide and big storm surge? Wasn't that much rain overall.


It was a full moon that night too. You wouldn't think that would be a significant factor, but I recall reading in the aftermath that this single element coinciding with high tide may have increased the storm surge by 1-2 feet. Also, with the eye hitting around Atlantic City, the counter clockwise churn of the storm forced the worst of the winds at the edge of the system into the right angle created by NJ and LI with maximum ferocity. The narrows was the path of least resistance, so NY harbor served as a collect pond for the Atlantic to pour into. Which then burst it's banks and you know the rest of the story.


That plus the usual story around poor sewers and pumping capacity. During Sandy - JC sewers couldn't handle the volume of rainfall, and at high tide the runoff water needs to be pumped into the Hudson. Since Sandy, a large number of downtown sewers have been widened, and pumping capacity has increased.

Time will tell if it's enough - though there seems to have been less local flooding since the new sewers were laid.

Posted on: 2015/10/1 22:32
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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This is the kind of information I follow on Facebook:

NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center

https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC/photos ... 45436361/946413808757433/

Posted on: 2015/10/1 22:14
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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Quote:

SRhia wrote:
Quote:

meowmix wrote:
A refresher for those of us who have mentally blocked out our Sandy experience: What were the factors that made Sandy so damaging to Jersey City?


I think it was a combination of high tide and big storm surge? Wasn't that much rain overall.


It was a full moon that night too. You wouldn't think that would be a significant factor, but I recall reading in the aftermath that this single element coinciding with high tide may have increased the storm surge by 1-2 feet. Also, with the eye hitting around Atlantic City, the counter clockwise churn of the storm forced the worst of the winds at the edge of the system into the right angle created by NJ and LI with maximum ferocity. The narrows was the path of least resistance, so NY harbor served as a collect pond for the Atlantic to pour into. Which then burst it's banks and you know the rest of the story.

Posted on: 2015/10/1 22:06
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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meowmix wrote:
A refresher for those of us who have mentally blocked out our Sandy experience: What were the factors that made Sandy so damaging to Jersey City?


Mayor Healy and Council President Brennan

Posted on: 2015/10/1 21:47
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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Quote:

meowmix wrote:
A refresher for those of us who have mentally blocked out our Sandy experience: What were the factors that made Sandy so damaging to Jersey City?


I think it was a combination of high tide and big storm surge? Wasn't that much rain overall.

Posted on: 2015/10/1 21:33
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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A refresher for those of us who have mentally blocked out our Sandy experience: What were the factors that made Sandy so damaging to Jersey City?

Posted on: 2015/10/1 21:23
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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Rorschach wrote:
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LoKo498 wrote:Not everyone has Facebook & wants the entire world to know what they are doing every second. Nor do I give a shit on what everyone else is doing every second!


+1000


Just an FYI you can join facebook and set everything to private, and simply follow people/organizations of your choosing, such as the City of Jersey City. The amount of information you provide to register is comparable to this message board.

Posted on: 2015/10/1 21:17
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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DanL wrote:
just received this email from the mayor -

Steven Fulop Update - Week by Week, We are Moving Forward In Jersey City

no mentioned of the coming storm. his campaign did a great job helping out people during Sandy.

are we better prepared for this one?


Councilwoman Candice Osborne sent an email today to her constituents, and one of the issues discussed was preemptive steps taken by the city for this storm.

Posted on: 2015/10/1 21:16
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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LoKo498 wrote:Not everyone has Facebook & wants the entire world to know what they are doing every second. Nor do I give a shit on what everyone else is doing every second!


+1000

Posted on: 2015/10/1 20:45
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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MDM wrote:
Updated Euro model is showing a big miss. Per the model, we will be still getting a Nor'Easter, but from a separate system that is forming off the coast of the Carolinas. Basically we are getting four days of crappy rainy windy weather. Joe Bastardi is still forecasting the storm going out to sea as well.



MDM - What is Bastardi's track record?

I only ask in light of the age-old adage: "Success has many fathers, but failure is a...."

Posted on: 2015/10/1 20:11
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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LoKo498 wrote:
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Annod wrote:
Really? Don't you follow City of Jersey City on Facebook?

Not everyone has Facebook & wants the entire world to know what they are doing every second. Nor do I give a shit on what everyone else is doing every second!


Pretty sure that was directed specifically at the person who posted that who criticizes everything Fulop.

Posted on: 2015/10/1 20:10
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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Annod wrote:
Really? Don't you follow City of Jersey City on Facebook?

Not everyone has Facebook & wants the entire world to know what they are doing every second. Nor do I give a shit on what everyone else is doing every second!

Posted on: 2015/10/1 19:46
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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They are extremely involved mathematical models. You'd need to have a really advanced understanding of mathematics to understand the assumptions. I'm not saying you don't have that, just that you'd need it to even understand it. I briefly studied weather modeling and it's very complex. And as MDM said, it's a chaotic system. So one tiny change can have huge effects and vice versa.

Quote:

MDM wrote:
Quote:

WhoElseCouldIBe wrote:
How are the models different in approach/methodology?


That I can't answer. I imagine that since they are trying to model a chaotic system, the models themselves are pretty involved.

Posted on: 2015/10/1 19:45
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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WhoElseCouldIBe wrote:
How are the models different in approach/methodology?


That I can't answer. I imagine that since they are trying to model a chaotic system, the models themselves are pretty involved.

Posted on: 2015/10/1 19:35
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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Most of the models seem to now be aligning with Euro. Let's hope it keeps up!

Posted on: 2015/10/1 19:27
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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How are the models different in approach/methodology?

Posted on: 2015/10/1 19:23
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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Updated Euro model is showing a big miss. Per the model, we will be still getting a Nor'Easter, but from a separate system that is forming off the coast of the Carolinas. Basically we are getting four days of crappy rainy windy weather. Joe Bastardi is still forecasting the storm going out to sea as well.


Resized Image




Posted on: 2015/10/1 19:17
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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Really? Don't you follow City of Jersey City on Facebook?

Posted on: 2015/10/1 18:02
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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just received this email from the mayor -

Steven Fulop Update - Week by Week, We are Moving Forward In Jersey City

no mentioned of the coming storm. his campaign did a great job helping out people during Sandy.

are we better prepared for this one?

Posted on: 2015/10/1 17:27
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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Here's how you can be prepared

Have enough water available - Residents should have at least one gallon of water for each person and animal per day, for at least three days.

Have a plan - Review a plan with your family on what will be done if evacuation is required, if power is lost and decide how to communicate and where to meet if separated.

Go to the bank - If the power goes out, ATM machines and registers at stores will not accept debit or credit cards, and cash will be the only method of payment.

Buy non-perishable foods - High protein foods, like granola bars and peanut butter, are the best foods to buy. Soup that just requires water to make is a good option too, because it can still be eaten even if it's not warm.

More

Posted on: 2015/10/1 17:06
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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Pebble wrote:
Christie has declared a State of Emergency ahead of the storm.

I'm more shocked that he remembered he's still the governor of New Jersey...


I hear he setting up traffic cones along the shore to keep it out.

Posted on: 2015/10/1 16:57
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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NYPD Tweets Hurricane Joaquin Path Map With Photos of Joaquin Phoenix

http://www.dnainfo.com/new-york/20151 ... photos-of-joaquin-phoenix

Posted on: 2015/10/1 16:55
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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slim26 wrote:
People are joking a little much over this one. Perhaps they haven't experienced or remember that we had 2 significant storms that in the past 5 years that have ravaged parts of Jersey City including my place on York that had to have the downstairs apartment completely destroyed twice.

You never know and better to have a disaster plan in place just in case it happens again.


I successfully implemented my disaster plan 3 years ago by moving the heck out of dtjc.

Posted on: 2015/10/1 16:18
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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Posted on: 2015/10/1 16:12
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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Christie has declared a State of Emergency ahead of the storm.

I'm more shocked that he remembered he's still the governor of New Jersey...

Posted on: 2015/10/1 16:00
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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Yup.. that makes sense. Everybody wait until Saturday to fill up your cars.

Quote:

JCMan8 wrote:
Quote:

slim26 wrote:
All I'm saying is instead of completely disregarding the forecasts and warnings that some are trying to give, based on past recent experiences, it may be very worthwhile to have a disaster plan in the case it does happen for the 3rd time in very recent history.

I know my block was a 6 foot raging river and had no power for 2 weeks - so instead of saying it likely isn't going to happen, things like getting gas and being prepared to move anything important to higher floors, and moving your car to higher ground if you are in a low laying area like southern part of Grove Street and nearby side roads like York -- all are things to at least plan to have in place so the place isn't a nut house on Saturday.

Quote:

JCMan8 wrote:
Quote:

slim26 wrote:
People are joking a little much over this one. Perhaps they haven't experienced or remember that we had 2 significant storms that in the past 5 years that have ravaged parts of Jersey City including my place on York that had to have the downstairs apartment completely destroyed twice.

You never know and better to have a disaster plan in place just in case it happens again.


I don't think anyone is joking about this. People are saying it is an utter waste of time to focus on forecasts so prematurely, as they are notoriously unreliable until you get closer to the event. In fact, looks like that's what's going to happen here.

Now I understand why people like obsessing over these forecasts well in advance of when the storm would hit (despite their unreliability). It injects drama and excitement into their lives. It generates clicks because people think what if it actually happens? It's essentially a form of entertainment.

If you want to indulge, by all means go ahead. I think that's what the majority of this thread consists of, and there's nothing wrong with it per se.

But there is a problem when you want to accuse the rational people who don't need to engage in this form of entertainment as being somehow irresponsible or failing to treat a possible event with the seriousness it deserves. Like I said, wait until two days before and then see what the forecasts say. Then you will be receiving news instead of entertainment.


The storm was supposed to hit on Monday, not Saturday. Saturday is when you start looking at the forecasts if you want to see if there is a realistic chance it will actually happen. Looking when this thread was first posted is what is meaningless. I called it entertainment, but for those who stress about it we can say "spinning your wheels."

Your point about a disaster plan is irrelevant. Living in a flood zone, you should always have a disaster plan ready. Not wait until now to come up with it. Assuming you are responsible and already have a plan in place, look at the Saturday forecasts and determine what, if anything you should follow in your plan.

Posted on: 2015/10/1 15:59
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.

Posted on: 2015/10/1 15:58
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