Dolomiti wrote:
And of course, he fails to note how so many of the mechanisms that inflated the past bubble -- e.g. poor valuations of risk, banks willing to loan to anyone with a pulse, banks selling MBSs and RE derivatives all over the world, and so on are not active, as they were in the last bubble.

Dolomiti wrote:
Quote:

jcwalkingman wrote:
Prices in Jersey City hit record highs starting in late 2005 and records continued to be shattered for about 12 consecutive months until late 2006. Then prices collapsed.

Uh, yes.... There was a global real estate market crisis. Did you not notice it?


Quote:

The same types of people buying downtown now were buying downtown back then.

Uh, yes... When there's a real estate bubble that bursts, people tend not to buy homes for awhile. Now they're back. Is anyone surprised by this?

Also, have you not noticed that 07302 prices are fairly stable, and only gradually rising over several years? When you look at the price history, the REAL bubble is readily apparent.

http://www.trulia.com/real_estate/07302-Jersey_City/market-trends/


Quote:

There is historically low inventory right now, and this is the main factor driving prices to record highs. Once inventory rises back to normal levels, the party is over.

It's not clear that inventory will get back to "normal," whatever that is. The number of sales is already taking a hit in 07302, in part because of inventory issues.

Quote:

1. downtown Jersey City is tangled in, and gets its power from, cheap bunches of nasty overhead high tension wires

Seriously? You think anyone gives a crap about that?


Quote:

2. downtown has almost no park space away from the border with the Hudson River

lol

The entire NYC area has this issue. No one is going to move to JC and THEN move out because it takes them 15 minutes to get to Liberty State Park.


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3. downtown roads can't satisfy the required capacity needs for vehicular traffic

lol

Again, the entire region has this problem. It certainly hasn't killed real estate prices in Hoboken or Manhattan.


Quote:

4. it's soon going to be next to impossible to get on overcrowded PATH trains during rush hour at downtown stations

Yet again: lol

a) Lots of cities have issues with public transport.
b) PATH service has gotten increasingly crowded for years, and it hasn't resulted in hordes of people moving away from DTJC
c) Relying on MTA is almost as much of a crapshoot, especially at nights and on weekends


Quote:

5. it's going to be at least another 30 years before downtown is built out with complete streetscapes

What on earth are you talking about?

jcwalkingman wrote:
Prices in Jersey City hit record highs starting in late 2005 and records continued to be shattered for about 12 consecutive months until late 2006. Then prices collapsed.

The same types of people buying downtown now were buying downtown back then.

There is historically low inventory right now, and this is the main factor driving prices to record highs. Once inventory rises back to normal levels, the party is over.

1. downtown Jersey City is tangled in, and gets its power from, cheap bunches of nasty overhead high tension wires

2. downtown has almost no park space away from the border with the Hudson River

3. downtown roads can't satisfy the required capacity needs for vehicular traffic

4. it's soon going to be next to impossible to get on overcrowded PATH trains during rush hour at downtown stations

5. it's going to be at least another 30 years before downtown is built out with complete streetscapes

jcwalkingman wrote:
To see what happens to home prices when inventory rises from the current historic/abnormal low to a more normal level, look at what's happening in the Hamptons right now: median listing price has already dropped 6.5% from peak because of a rise in the number of homes for sale.

dtjcview wrote:
http://www.businessinsider.com/housin ... -full-magnificence-2015-7

Some support in the press for being in a bubble. A telling stat is the decline in home ownership.

JCMan8 wrote:
Quote:

dtjcview wrote:
http://www.businessinsider.com/housin ... -full-magnificence-2015-7

Some support in the press for being in a bubble. A telling stat is the decline in home ownership.

I'm not sure this is evidence of a bubble or evidence of a fundamental restructuring of our economy. Where the divide between the haves and the have nots is increasing so much, we are creating a permanent class of renters.

dtjcview wrote:
http://www.businessinsider.com/housin ... -full-magnificence-2015-7

Some support in the press for being in a bubble. A telling stat is the decline in home ownership.

JcDevil wrote:
Quote:

jcguy05 wrote:

for provst square, are you talking about this? it's rentals.....

https://www.buzzbuzzhome.com/the-morgan-at-provost-square

First tower is rentals, second is condos, I believe.

jcguy05 wrote:

for provst square, are you talking about this? it's rentals.....

https://www.buzzbuzzhome.com/the-morgan-at-provost-square

bodhipooh wrote:
Quote:

jmcee wrote:
Quote:

That is not correct. There are several condo projects in the works. In addition to The Oakman (160 First) you have the next two towers going up at Provost Square, which will be condos (apparently both are condos or will include a significant amount of condos) and you have the second Trump building (65 Bay) and the various small projects happening around town: places like The Gannon and the building across from it. Supply is limited now and will continue to be tight, but there will be inventory being added over the next few years.

FYI Trump is going to be rentals not condos

Thanks for the confirmation. Early on, I believe it was planned as condos, but I had read some recent stuff that seemed to contradict that. I wasn't sure what was the current status, but figured someone could/would correct me. Thanks.

frankm wrote:
Yes, more inventory will come online in the next few years, but the Jersey City market is not a market unto itself. It is part of a much larger market - NY Metro. Of all the Hudson River cities, we are the most connected to NYC, and we are now seen as a viable alternative to the sky-high prices in the city.

Then you have the whole trend towards urbanization where buyers, whether millennials to empty-nesters, want to live an urban lifestyle and ditch the car (yes, many coming to Jersey City see it as a place where you don't need a car). I work with a lot of these types of buyers, so see it all the time.

As long as NYC keeps doing it's thing, I believe that Jersey City will as well. The added inventory will be absorbed quickly. My biggest concern is PATH and keeping us so closely connected to NYC, but that's a whole other discussion.

jmcee wrote:
Quote:

That is not correct. There are several condo projects in the works. In addition to The Oakman (160 First) you have the next two towers going up at Provost Square, which will be condos (apparently both are condos or will include a significant amount of condos) and you have the second Trump building (65 Bay) and the various small projects happening around town: places like The Gannon and the building across from it. Supply is limited now and will continue to be tight, but there will be inventory being added over the next few years.

FYI Trump is going to be rentals not condos

That is not correct. There are several condo projects in the works. In addition to The Oakman (160 First) you have the next two towers going up at Provost Square, which will be condos (apparently both are condos or will include a significant amount of condos) and you have the second Trump building (65 Bay) and the various small projects happening around town: places like The Gannon and the building across from it. Supply is limited now and will continue to be tight, but there will be inventory being added over the next few years.

jcguy05 wrote:
Quote:

jcwalkingman wrote:
Prices in Jersey City hit record highs starting in late 2005 and records continued to be shattered for about 12 consecutive months until late 2006. Then prices collapsed.

The same types of people buying downtown now were buying downtown back then.

There is historically low inventory right now, and this is the main factor driving prices to record highs. Once inventory rises back to normal levels, the party is over.

Once the hysteria is over and reality sets in, people will realize the following:
1. downtown Jersey City is tangled in, and gets its power from, cheap bunches of nasty overhead high tension wires
2. downtown has almost no park space away from the border with the Hudson River
3. downtown roads can't satisfy the required capacity needs for vehicular traffic
4. it's soon going to be next to impossible to get on overcrowded PATH trains during rush hour at downtown stations
5. it's going to be at least another 30 years before downtown is built out with complete streetscapes

But where is this inventory going to come from? No one is building condos. You only got a mid rise by the shoprite that is opening up and the area is still mess. The other is the Chinese building by 77 Hudson, but no one knows when it will be breaking ground, it will be years before the sales starts much less occupancy.

There are no other large scale condo projects....it's all rentals.

jcwalkingman wrote:
Prices in Jersey City hit record highs starting in late 2005 and records continued to be shattered for about 12 consecutive months until late 2006. Then prices collapsed.

The same types of people buying downtown now were buying downtown back then.

There is historically low inventory right now, and this is the main factor driving prices to record highs. Once inventory rises back to normal levels, the party is over.

Once the hysteria is over and reality sets in, people will realize the following:
1. downtown Jersey City is tangled in, and gets its power from, cheap bunches of nasty overhead high tension wires
2. downtown has almost no park space away from the border with the Hudson River
3. downtown roads can't satisfy the required capacity needs for vehicular traffic
4. it's soon going to be next to impossible to get on overcrowded PATH trains during rush hour at downtown stations
5. it's going to be at least another 30 years before downtown is built out with complete streetscapes

bluehorse wrote:
Quote:

brewster wrote:
Quote:

bluehorse wrote:
Seems to me like there's a cooling off.

Is that the definition of cooling off, buyers saying no to crazy high prices?

I don't know about JC, but nationwide...

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/0 ... ing-idUSKCN0Q31U020150729

"Contracts to buy previously owned U.S. homes unexpectedly fell in June after five straight months of increase, suggesting some cooling in sales activity after recent hefty gains."

brewster wrote:
Quote:

bluehorse wrote:
Seems to me like there's a cooling off.

Is that the definition of cooling off, buyers saying no to crazy high prices?

bill wrote:
Quote:

jcguy05 wrote:

I saw that listing too, the asking price is just wishful thinking. Noone is going to pay close to 1.2m for a low rise building with minimal amenity and no view.

I can ask 2mil for my 1br, doesnt mean it will be sold. Look at the monmouth tax record site with filter on sold = last 90 days, that's the real market. (there is 1-2 month delay between closing and it showing up on that website usually, but still give you the most accurate picture of price)

Wow

This home has a pending offer.
99 Montgomery St PH 3, Jersey City, NJ 07302

DATE EVENT PRICE AGENTS
07/26/15 Listing removed $1,175,000
07/19/15 Listed for sale $1,175,000+51.2%

BobNesta wrote:
Quote:

frankm wrote:
244 Montgomery held first open house last weekend. It already has multiple offers, over asking.


How's 244 Montgomery looking?

i'm not surprised.

bluehorse wrote:
Seems to me like there's a cooling off.

frankm wrote:
244 Montgomery held first open house last weekend. It already has multiple offers, over asking.

Quote:

BobNesta wrote:
Quote:

frankm wrote:
614 Jersey, listed at 999K went into contract about one week after it was listed. Don?t know contract price yet, but it had multiple offers and seller got well over asking

656 Jersey, listed at 1.575M is in contract after being on market 43 days

332 York, listed at 1.7M, is in contract after being on market 13 days. Seller must have gotten close to asking if not asking in order to take it off market that quickly

12 Mercer has been on market 36 days and was reduced to 1.67M. Was asking too much based on it?s poor condition.

243 Marin was reduced from 1.99M to 1.599M on market now for 22 days. Completely renovated, and set up as 2 duplexes. Developer should have made it as a triplex plus garden rental or single family. There are more buyers in that segment of the market. It's also on busy Marin Blvd.

I?m a realtor working with several buyers looking for townhomes. Many from the Bklyn where a similar townhouse is twice the price. The competition is fierce and anything decent that?s priced correctly moves within a week or so.

I?d say that there is no cooling off.

How's 244 Montgomery looking?

BobNesta wrote:
Quote:

frankm wrote:
614 Jersey, listed at 999K went into contract about one week after it was listed. Don?t know contract price yet, but it had multiple offers and seller got well over asking

656 Jersey, listed at 1.575M is in contract after being on market 43 days

332 York, listed at 1.7M, is in contract after being on market 13 days. Seller must have gotten close to asking if not asking in order to take it off market that quickly

12 Mercer has been on market 36 days and was reduced to 1.67M. Was asking too much based on it?s poor condition.

243 Marin was reduced from 1.99M to 1.599M on market now for 22 days. Completely renovated, and set up as 2 duplexes. Developer should have made it as a triplex plus garden rental or single family. There are more buyers in that segment of the market. It's also on busy Marin Blvd.

I?m a realtor working with several buyers looking for townhomes. Many from the Bklyn where a similar townhouse is twice the price. The competition is fierce and anything decent that?s priced correctly moves within a week or so.

I?d say that there is no cooling off.

How's 244 Montgomery looking?

frankm wrote:
614 Jersey, listed at 999K went into contract about one week after it was listed. Don?t know contract price yet, but it had multiple offers and seller got well over asking

656 Jersey, listed at 1.575M is in contract after being on market 43 days

332 York, listed at 1.7M, is in contract after being on market 13 days. Seller must have gotten close to asking if not asking in order to take it off market that quickly

12 Mercer has been on market 36 days and was reduced to 1.67M. Was asking too much based on it?s poor condition.

243 Marin was reduced from 1.99M to 1.599M on market now for 22 days. Completely renovated, and set up as 2 duplexes. Developer should have made it as a triplex plus garden rental or single family. There are more buyers in that segment of the market. It's also on busy Marin Blvd.

I?m a realtor working with several buyers looking for townhomes. Many from the Bklyn where a similar townhouse is twice the price. The competition is fierce and anything decent that?s priced correctly moves within a week or so.

I?d say that there is no cooling off.

bluehorse wrote:
So, I have been watching the single family market in dwntn for the past couple of months. Here's what I saw. (I might have missed others.)

Only one sold, 614 Jersey Av, listed for $999, now pending.

Two were taken off the market, for whatever reason.
656 Jersey, about $1.6m
332 York, $1.7m

Two reduced prices.
243 Marin from $2m to $1.6
12 Mercer from $1.8 to $1.67

There are a few others that are still out in the market for the same price, but doesn't seem to be selling as quickly as 614 Jersey, which was listed for less than $1m.

Seems to me like there's a cooling off. Maybe there was pent up demand last year and early this year, but buildings are not being snapped up at the prices they are asking now. Maybe the condo market is a different story, but supply is definitely looking greater than demand in the single family market.