SRhia wrote:
I also understand the law of demand and supply, and asking price vs purchase price. But the fact that someone *dared* to even list with such a price, what does that say of the people's mentality right now?

I noted in my original post that there are several 3 bed units in 65 2nd street is in the $1.2+ million range.... etc
and that's just a handful of examples. Look at the trulia listings: so many are now asking 30%, 40+% more than just 4-5 years ago.

Hence, is JC market currently a bubble?

mrasg1 wrote:
Can anyone recommend a realtor? Looking
to buy. And also, any thoughts on the
Bergen-Lafayette area? Thanks.

jcguy05 wrote:

I saw that listing too, the asking price is just wishful thinking. Noone is going to pay close to 1.2m for a low rise building with minimal amenity and no view.

I can ask 2mil for my 1br, doesnt mean it will be sold. Look at the monmouth tax record site with filter on sold = last 90 days, that's the real market. (there is 1-2 month delay between closing and it showing up on that website usually, but still give you the most accurate picture of price)

mrasg1 wrote:
...any thoughts on the Bergen-Lafayette area?

JGJDNYCJC wrote:
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devilsadvocate wrote:
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vindication15 wrote:
Same thing gets said about manhattan year after year yet demand stays high and vacancy is low.

Re: DTJC real estate, which is extremely different than other parts of JC, it is not a bubble. If you compare luxury high rises, 1brs in DTJC are going for the same rental prices as studio apts in manhattan, 2brs in dtjc are around the 1br pricing for manhattan.

When such a bargain still exists, there is much catching up to do..

I don't understand why you think this is a "bargain." Jersey City is an inferior good to living in Manhattan, and you're absolutely kidding yourself if you think otherwise. If you could get a comparable place in Manhattan, then I would immediately sell my JC home and acquire a similar property in Manhattan on Central Park or Riverside (two parks that are better than anything JC has to offer).

You're missing the point.

First, there's DTJC, and there's the rest of JC. The two are very different and have evolved differently. It's a bit like UES and Spanish Harlem. Close but far apart.

Second, DTJC is appealing precisely because it's not Manhattan. You can have your space, a car, quiet, some decent retail, and some transit. I liken it to a mix of Brooklyn and Queens and heckuvalot cheaper than both, with better quality and newer real estate.

The folks attracted to DTJC are often seeking a more affordable, lower scale, but proximate alternative to Manhattan, who found Brooklyn too costly.

bodhipooh wrote:
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JcDevil wrote:
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BobNesta wrote:

Right, and as Somerman mentioned it's not just the young desiring to live in urban areas.

Indeed - it's just an anecdote, but I've talked with a number of boomer-aged family friends about their plans to downsize to places like Weehawken or Edgewater in the next couple years. They don't quite want the full city experience of living in Manhattan, Hoboken, or DTJC, but they want proximity to the restaurants and arts that bring them into the city without the two hour drive.

Exactly. But, the point raised by ianmac47 is definitely true. There is no doubt an increased "reverse" exodus happening with people flocking to cities (the trend can be seen all over the country, not just in our area) but the point he was making is that a good part of the increase in real estate value is actually due to tech sector people being flush with cash and willing to pay inflated prices. If you were to factor out that money from the market (not really possible, since it would be speculation to arrive at a number, etc) I am sure you would still an increase in values (a natural result of increased demand) but the increase would not be as steep as it is now. You have kids coming out of college, or perhaps with a few years of experience since finishing school, that command 6 figure salaries. It's a great industry: fun and exciting, with great salaries, and ever expanding. If you were to conduct a survey of the young residents in any of the local luxury buildings, I am sure a good portion of them are in the IT industry.

JcDevil wrote:
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BobNesta wrote:

Right, and as Somerman mentioned it's not just the young desiring to live in urban areas.

Indeed - it's just an anecdote, but I've talked with a number of boomer-aged family friends about their plans to downsize to places like Weehawken or Edgewater in the next couple years. They don't quite want the full city experience of living in Manhattan, Hoboken, or DTJC, but they want proximity to the restaurants and arts that bring them into the city without the two hour drive.

BobNesta wrote:

Right, and as Somerman mentioned it's not just the young desiring to live in urban areas.

HelenaJC wrote:
Aren't real estate increases in places like Queens, Brooklyn, Jersey City partly reflective of people moving out of the suburbs and into urban areas? Jobs are now predominately in cities, and increasingly, this is where young professionals want to build their lives: http://www.thewire.com/national/2014/ ... e-suburban-exodus/359714/

As long as this trend continues (and the market isn't completely flooded with new housing stock), it's hard to imagine a serious real estate bubble in NYC and its environs.

Time4JC wrote:
Nobel Prize winning Economist and Yale Economics Professor Robert Shiller:

The Housing Market Still Isn?t Rational

The bottom line is that there is no reason to assume that the real estate market is even close to efficient. You may want to buy a house if you love it and can afford it. But remember that you cannot safely rely on ?comparable sales? to judge that the price is fair. The market isn?t efficient enough for that.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/26/ups ... .html?_r=0&abt=0002&abg=1

Dolomiti wrote: Quote:

JCorNYC wrote: no convenient grocery store like Shop Rite (must take car to schlep miles away for food shopping)

Thanks for the sour persimmons. The supermarket situation in DTJC is no different than Hoboken before the Kings opened up. There was one market towards the north end of town -- and plenty of small shops with good produce and a surprisingly useful selection. Somehow, neither issues with the PATH, nor distance from the only supermarket in town, stunted Hoboken's gentrification. In fact, the market situation got a bit better a few years ago, when Key Foods replaced C-Town >>shudder<< Meanwhile, JC's gentrification has continued unabated for several years in a row, and shows little sign of slowing down. There is no indication that people who move to JC are fleeing immediately, either.

JCorNYC wrote: no convenient grocery store like Shop Rite (must take car to schlep miles away for food shopping)

moobycow wrote:
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JCorNYC wrote:
Once new residences realized the PATH is horrible with so many delays and suspensions, no convenient grocery store like Shop Rite (must take car to schlep miles away for food shopping) they will leave Jersey City. Just you watch.

I've lived here for about 7 years and haven't once had to schlep miles away for food. There are 4 large grocery stores downtown (not sure if any are closing with the A&P bankruptcy), Key Foods and multiple bodegas etc.

How is 4 large grocery stores not convenient? Should we have one every block? Add in Fresh Direct and Pea Pod and I can't imagine a scenario where getting groceries is an issue.

As for the PATH, no doubt it can be bad, but the alternative is oftne NJ Transit. I know which one I prefer.

JCorNYC wrote:
Once new residences realized the PATH is horrible with so many delays and suspensions, no convenient grocery store like Shop Rite (must take car to schlep miles away for food shopping) they will leave Jersey City. Just you watch.

JCorNYC wrote:
Jersey City housing especially downtown and near the waterfront is over inflated.

The Path Trains giving problems almost every work week

Sommerman wrote:
Quote:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/23/bus ... -exceeds-supply.html?_r=0

bodhipooh wrote:

OK, I wasn't very clear on what I was trying to convey. My point was that two decades ago, Brooklyn was not on anyone's radar. Around mid 1990s, it was still derided as being "B&T"

As for the claim that low inventories were found in many areas, it's actually the opposite. Your statement is true for our area, which is "unique". Across the country, the issue is the complete opposite: there was TOO MUCH inventory. Most (all?) economists agree on this point: the glut of housing has dragged the recession and it is what kept all of this going for so long. Too much housing that the market couldn't absorb.

Dolomiti wrote:
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bodhipooh wrote:
You make valid points all around, but the fact remains that just over a decade ago, and certainly within two decades ago, NO ONE would have spent a million dollars for anything in BK.

I'm pretty sure lots of people did. Brooklyn Heights and Prospect Park were certainly on the upswing in 2005; I'm pretty sure that even DUMBO was well on the way to gentrification by then.

E.g. here's a random town house for sale in Park Slope. If you look at the history, it sold for $1m in 2002:
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/45- ... n-NY-11217/30581953_zpid/

It also seems, as someone who admittedly is not part of the industry, that the banks and mortgage issuers are still maintaining very strict standards. They aren't going to loan to people who they don't think can make the mortgage paments, and I'm pretty sure they've improved their risk models since the last crash. IMO this is a critical bulwark against a bubble.

We should also note that after the crash, new home construction rates fell, and were well below normal rates for several years. This has contributed to low inventories in many areas.

By the way, I'm mildly amused that you slag the NYT's real estate section, and then assume that what they say is absolutely true. ;) I'm not quite convinced that people who are getting priced out of Brooklyn are moving to Manhattan. Though I have heard that people who are getting priced out of Jersey City are looking at Hoboken.... o_O