NewportNJ wrote:
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Expand the PATH

You do know the astrnomical cost to dig a foot of train tunnel, right?

bill wrote:
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dtjcview wrote:
- In 07302: 9,492/35,910 are Asian
- In 07310: 8,347/11,849 are Asian

How can we encourage some of them to venture into other zips like 07304, 07305 so that they become safer, more prosperous, etc.

Expand the PATH

bill wrote:

How can we encourage some of them to venture into other zips like 07304, 07305 so that they become safer, more prosperous, etc.

dtjcview wrote:
- In 07302: 9,492/35,910 are Asian
- In 07310: 8,347/11,849 are Asian

bodhipooh wrote:

Using 07310 as a representation of DTJC is disingenuous, at best. It is a zip code that consists of that tiny sliver of waterfront starting over by Harborside Financial, extending North along Newport, and ending over by the Holland Tunnel approach area. In that particular area, you do have a large percentage of immigrant Asians. But, concluding that DTJC is mostly Asian immigrants by using population data from a gerrymandered zip code is like claiming that Manhattan is mostly immigrant Africans by looking at the data of 10026 (which is home to the so called "Petit Senegal" neighborhood, in Central Harlem).

dtjcview wrote:
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bodhipooh wrote:
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jcnycjc wrote:
Not sure about the exact numbers but a large percentage of the population in DTJC area, especially Newport is Asian (Indian/Chinese).

A large percentage? How do you define large percentage? If you are claiming that a majority of DTJC is Asian, could you please provide a quote, or source, please? That sounds like a wild ass guess.

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Originally, most of this demographic is on temporary work permits but this eventually moves to green card (permanent residence). Invariably, people think of buying condos on acquiring green cards or when they are close enough to acquiring one. So, this is actually a pretty big catalyst for condo demand in the downtown area

Where did you get this?? That's not how immigration law works, at all. There is a fixed limit on how many green cards can be issued for employment reasons, and those have strict limits on a per country basis. For each country of origin there is a limit of all available green cards. In essence, nationals from any given country are limited to 10,000 employment-based green cards per year. And, for example, for someone from India, the process will take at least 4 years, sometimes longer (around 6 years).

Some grains of truth - a least in the demographics for 07310.

http://www.city-data.com/zips/07310.html

jcwalkingman wrote:

....okay, and there are newer-construction 4 bedroom homes in areas with much better schools and much lower crime than Jersey City has, selling for ~$200 per square foot within an hour's commute of Manhattan. The prices in Crown Heights and Bed-Stuy are what you call irrational exuberance (based on pure speculation).

JcDevil wrote:

Think of it this way: there are condos in freaking Crown Heights and Bed-Stuy that are going for $900-1000/sqft. And I'm not even talking about super-luxury buildings, here. If you don't think that DTJC will get at least there (unless there's a huge economic crash or something of that nature), you're just not paying attention.

Is anyone saying that you're going to see $2500/sqft average sales like in much of Manhattan anytime soon? Of course not. But there's a long way to go until then.

bodhipooh wrote:
Quote:

jcnycjc wrote:
Not sure about the exact numbers but a large percentage of the population in DTJC area, especially Newport is Asian (Indian/Chinese).

A large percentage? How do you define large percentage? If you are claiming that a majority of DTJC is Asian, could you please provide a quote, or source, please? That sounds like a wild ass guess.

Quote:

Originally, most of this demographic is on temporary work permits but this eventually moves to green card (permanent residence). Invariably, people think of buying condos on acquiring green cards or when they are close enough to acquiring one. So, this is actually a pretty big catalyst for condo demand in the downtown area

Where did you get this?? That's not how immigration law works, at all. There is a fixed limit on how many green cards can be issued for employment reasons, and those have strict limits on a per country basis. For each country of origin there is a limit of all available green cards. In essence, nationals from any given country are limited to 10,000 employment-based green cards per year. And, for example, for someone from India, the process will take at least 4 years, sometimes longer (around 6 years).

jcnycjc wrote:
Not sure about the exact numbers but a large percentage of the population in DTJC area, especially Newport is Asian (Indian/Chinese).

Originally, most of this demographic is on temporary work permits but this eventually moves to green card (permanent residence). Invariably, people think of buying condos on acquiring green cards or when they are close enough to acquiring one. So, this is actually a pretty big catalyst for condo demand in the downtown area

vindication15 wrote:
People who think prices in DTJC are inflated have no clue about

1)The buyers and renters within DTJC
2) The local trie-state real estate market
3) Past Manhattan trends and how DTJC is more like brooklyn heights and manhattan than it is to even other neighborhoods within JC.

But whatever. Keep ragging on DTJC. DTJC is the only reason why people would even consider living in Jersey City.

tommyc_37 wrote:
Does anybody know why there is such a reluctance to build condos in these new high rises, as opposed to making them rentals? There is obviously ridiculous demand for condos.

tommyc_37 wrote:
Prices are artificially inflated due to an extremely low quantity of inventory for purchase, as somebody else noted earlier. There are bidding wars on mediocre properties. There really is very low inventory, for sale. Does anybody know why there is such a reluctance to build condos in these new high rises, as opposed to making them rentals? There is obviously ridiculous demand for condos.

JCMan8 wrote:
I tend to agree with you except for one HUGE limiting factor and that is the PATH.

Jersey City, particularly DTJC, has been on a development binge but has failed to improve or upgrade the underlying infrastructure.

Right now, rush hour trains are already packed to ridiculous levels....

Other posters at Newport have said they have to get on a train going to JSQ just so they can have room for the trip into Manhattan.

If this is how it is now I can't imagine how bad it's going to get after the 25,000+ apartments currently under construction get completed.

And no one is tackling the problem because it isn't their problem.

So I think the PATH will tremendously dampen DTJC's future property values. It's the sort of thing people won't realize until it is too late.

tommyc_37 wrote:
Prices are artificially inflated due to an extremely low quantity of inventory for purchase, as somebody else noted earlier. There are bidding wars on mediocre properties. There really is very low inventory, for sale. Does anybody know why there is such a reluctance to build condos in these new high rises, as opposed to making them rentals? There is obviously ridiculous demand for condos.

tommyc_37 wrote:
Prices are artificially inflated due to an extremely low quantity of inventory for purchase, as somebody else noted earlier. There are bidding wars on mediocre properties. There really is very low inventory, for sale. Does anybody know why there is such a reluctance to build condos in these new high rises, as opposed to making them rentals? There is obviously ridiculous demand for condos.

tommyc_37 wrote:
Prices are artificially inflated due to an extremely low quantity of inventory for purchase, as somebody else noted earlier. There are bidding wars on mediocre properties. There really is very low inventory, for sale. Does anybody know why there is such a reluctance to build condos in these new high rises, as opposed to making them rentals? There is obviously ridiculous demand for condos.

tommyc_37 wrote:
Prices are artificially inflated due to an extremely low quantity of inventory for purchase, as somebody else noted earlier. There are bidding wars on mediocre properties. There really is very low inventory, for sale. Does anybody know why there is such a reluctance to build condos in these new high rises, as opposed to making them rentals? There is obviously ridiculous demand for condos.

hero69 wrote:
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vindication15 wrote:
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jcwalkingman wrote:
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Dolomiti wrote:
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When the supply of rental units increases that dramatically, that increases competition among owners of rental units.

Aren't you forgetting something? Y'know, it's on the tip of my tongue, from that first week in Microecon 101, it's... it's... Oh yeah. It's demand.

Keeping in mind that no one has a crystal ball:

Rental prices are increasing all along the Gold Coast. As more supply comes onto the market, prices may drop a little bit, but they might not. It depends heavily on how many people want to rent those units.

While it is possible that some buildings will sell instead of rent, that kind of shift is not trivial and is not fast, especially in larger buildings. Condo conversions take at least 2 years, lots of paperwork, and dealing with recalcitrant tenants. I.e. We are not going to wake up one fine Tuesday morning with 50,000 new condos for sale in DTJC.

Even if that impossible scenario did happen, the market for condos is pretty healthy too. Demand is high right now for condo sales, which means the market probably can absorb a big increase in supply without killing condo prices.

LOL are you telling me you think there will be a five-fold surge in demand over last year? the absorption rate for the type of product (luxury apartments) that make up the tidal wave of new units coming online downtown in the next 12 months was roughly 65 units/month during peak season last year (there will be over 4200 new luxury units coming online downtown in the next 12 months)

At the pace at the peak of last year (some of which was made up of pent-up demand that has largely been satisfied), it would take about 64 months - more than 5 years - to absorb all those units (and that doesn't even factor in the contribution of several thousand more units coming online the following 2 years). Job growth in New York City is forecast to be only 2.3% higher this year than last according to the BLS, so any surge in demand in downtown JC would need to come from people who already work in the NYC area and are simply moving out of their parents' house or otherwise relocating from other presumably nearby zipcodes.

....and I wasn't referring in any way to condo conversions in my previous post. When I spoke about more condo units coming online, I was referring to investors who own units in Trump, Grove Pointe, Gull's Cove, etc. dumping their units onto the market to avoid losing money since net effective rents are likely to fall.

One more thing...demand in downtown JC is NOT high right now - in fact, it is completely the opposite - terribly low. Prices are high right now because there are so few units on the market. How many units have sold in The Gannon so far? The Oakman will add another 160. These two buildings alone will effectively more than double the number of units for sale downtown in the coming months. We have historically low interest rates right now, and a likely increase in interest rates will reduce buying power. Additionally, foreign capital is now starting to divert from US real estate investment to European and South American real estate because of the strength of the dollar, which means a reduced pool of buyers in the JC market.

What? These are the what will increase demand in both rentals & condos - at least in the luxury high rise department:

1) WTC filling up
2) Manhattan increase in jobs (you mentioned this)
3) Increase in rental and property values in Manhattan (you did not mention this) which will drive people to DTJC
4) Hoboken price out
5) People in nearby NJ cities who want a nightlife
6) Those in nearby JC neighborhoods who want to live closer to Manhattan and are willing to pay more - those in Heights for example

You mentioned the gannon. I went to the website and can't even see availability - only the ability to join a mailing list..is this building even done? Oakman is not online so how do we even judge this?

We should look at recent rentals and recent condo sales. They are high, very high in the DTJC luxury high rise market but still 50% off from Manhattan Proper. DTJC will rise....and there is still money to be made.

I also do not see an influx of condo owners dumping their units onto the market before prices fall.....the buildings you mention have less than 10 units per building on the market right now. inventory is extraordinarily low. Are we talking about DTJC here?

please tell me how i can make some of that dtjc money!

vindication15 wrote:
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jcwalkingman wrote:
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Dolomiti wrote:
Quote:

When the supply of rental units increases that dramatically, that increases competition among owners of rental units.

Aren't you forgetting something? Y'know, it's on the tip of my tongue, from that first week in Microecon 101, it's... it's... Oh yeah. It's demand.

Keeping in mind that no one has a crystal ball:

Rental prices are increasing all along the Gold Coast. As more supply comes onto the market, prices may drop a little bit, but they might not. It depends heavily on how many people want to rent those units.

While it is possible that some buildings will sell instead of rent, that kind of shift is not trivial and is not fast, especially in larger buildings. Condo conversions take at least 2 years, lots of paperwork, and dealing with recalcitrant tenants. I.e. We are not going to wake up one fine Tuesday morning with 50,000 new condos for sale in DTJC.

Even if that impossible scenario did happen, the market for condos is pretty healthy too. Demand is high right now for condo sales, which means the market probably can absorb a big increase in supply without killing condo prices.

LOL are you telling me you think there will be a five-fold surge in demand over last year? the absorption rate for the type of product (luxury apartments) that make up the tidal wave of new units coming online downtown in the next 12 months was roughly 65 units/month during peak season last year (there will be over 4200 new luxury units coming online downtown in the next 12 months)

At the pace at the peak of last year (some of which was made up of pent-up demand that has largely been satisfied), it would take about 64 months - more than 5 years - to absorb all those units (and that doesn't even factor in the contribution of several thousand more units coming online the following 2 years). Job growth in New York City is forecast to be only 2.3% higher this year than last according to the BLS, so any surge in demand in downtown JC would need to come from people who already work in the NYC area and are simply moving out of their parents' house or otherwise relocating from other presumably nearby zipcodes.

....and I wasn't referring in any way to condo conversions in my previous post. When I spoke about more condo units coming online, I was referring to investors who own units in Trump, Grove Pointe, Gull's Cove, etc. dumping their units onto the market to avoid losing money since net effective rents are likely to fall.

One more thing...demand in downtown JC is NOT high right now - in fact, it is completely the opposite - terribly low. Prices are high right now because there are so few units on the market. How many units have sold in The Gannon so far? The Oakman will add another 160. These two buildings alone will effectively more than double the number of units for sale downtown in the coming months. We have historically low interest rates right now, and a likely increase in interest rates will reduce buying power. Additionally, foreign capital is now starting to divert from US real estate investment to European and South American real estate because of the strength of the dollar, which means a reduced pool of buyers in the JC market.

What? These are the what will increase demand in both rentals & condos - at least in the luxury high rise department:

1) WTC filling up
2) Manhattan increase in jobs (you mentioned this)
3) Increase in rental and property values in Manhattan (you did not mention this) which will drive people to DTJC
4) Hoboken price out
5) People in nearby NJ cities who want a nightlife
6) Those in nearby JC neighborhoods who want to live closer to Manhattan and are willing to pay more - those in Heights for example

You mentioned the gannon. I went to the website and can't even see availability - only the ability to join a mailing list..is this building even done? Oakman is not online so how do we even judge this?

We should look at recent rentals and recent condo sales. They are high, very high in the DTJC luxury high rise market but still 50% off from Manhattan Proper. DTJC will rise....and there is still money to be made.

I also do not see an influx of condo owners dumping their units onto the market before prices fall.....the buildings you mention have less than 10 units per building on the market right now. inventory is extraordinarily low. Are we talking about DTJC here?

jcwalkingman wrote:
Quote:

Dolomiti wrote:
Quote:

When the supply of rental units increases that dramatically, that increases competition among owners of rental units.

Aren't you forgetting something? Y'know, it's on the tip of my tongue, from that first week in Microecon 101, it's... it's... Oh yeah. It's demand.

Keeping in mind that no one has a crystal ball:

Rental prices are increasing all along the Gold Coast. As more supply comes onto the market, prices may drop a little bit, but they might not. It depends heavily on how many people want to rent those units.

While it is possible that some buildings will sell instead of rent, that kind of shift is not trivial and is not fast, especially in larger buildings. Condo conversions take at least 2 years, lots of paperwork, and dealing with recalcitrant tenants. I.e. We are not going to wake up one fine Tuesday morning with 50,000 new condos for sale in DTJC.

Even if that impossible scenario did happen, the market for condos is pretty healthy too. Demand is high right now for condo sales, which means the market probably can absorb a big increase in supply without killing condo prices.

LOL are you telling me you think there will be a five-fold surge in demand over last year? the absorption rate for the type of product (luxury apartments) that make up the tidal wave of new units coming online downtown in the next 12 months was roughly 65 units/month during peak season last year (there will be over 4200 new luxury units coming online downtown in the next 12 months)

At the pace at the peak of last year (some of which was made up of pent-up demand that has largely been satisfied), it would take about 64 months - more than 5 years - to absorb all those units (and that doesn't even factor in the contribution of several thousand more units coming online the following 2 years). Job growth in New York City is forecast to be only 2.3% higher this year than last according to the BLS, so any surge in demand in downtown JC would need to come from people who already work in the NYC area and are simply moving out of their parents' house or otherwise relocating from other presumably nearby zipcodes.

....and I wasn't referring in any way to condo conversions in my previous post. When I spoke about more condo units coming online, I was referring to investors who own units in Trump, Grove Pointe, Gull's Cove, etc. dumping their units onto the market to avoid losing money since net effective rents are likely to fall.

One more thing...demand in downtown JC is NOT high right now - in fact, it is completely the opposite - terribly low. Prices are high right now because there are so few units on the market. How many units have sold in The Gannon so far? The Oakman will add another 160. These two buildings alone will effectively more than double the number of units for sale downtown in the coming months. We have historically low interest rates right now, and a likely increase in interest rates will reduce buying power. Additionally, foreign capital is now starting to divert from US real estate investment to European and South American real estate because of the strength of the dollar, which means a reduced pool of buyers in the JC market.

JCMan8 wrote:
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vindication15 wrote:
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JGJDNYCJC wrote:
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devilsadvocate wrote:
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vindication15 wrote:
Same thing gets said about manhattan year after year yet demand stays high and vacancy is low.

Re: DTJC real estate, which is extremely different than other parts of JC, it is not a bubble. If you compare luxury high rises, 1brs in DTJC are going for the same rental prices as studio apts in manhattan, 2brs in dtjc are around the 1br pricing for manhattan.

When such a bargain still exists, there is much catching up to do..

I don't understand why you think this is a "bargain." Jersey City is an inferior good to living in Manhattan, and you're absolutely kidding yourself if you think otherwise. If you could get a comparable place in Manhattan, then I would immediately sell my JC home and acquire a similar property in Manhattan on Central Park or Riverside (two parks that are better than anything JC has to offer).

You're missing the point.

First, there's DTJC, and there's the rest of JC. The two are very different and have evolved differently. It's a bit like UES and Spanish Harlem. Close but far apart.

Second, DTJC is appealing precisely because it's not Manhattan. You can have your space, a car, quiet, some decent retail, and some transit. I liken it to a mix of Brooklyn and Queens and heckuvalot cheaper than both, with better quality and newer real estate.

The folks attracted to DTJC are often seeking a more affordable, lower scale, but proximate alternative to Manhattan, who found Brooklyn too costly.

I am the first one to admit that DTJC is VERY different than the rest of JC, at least pricing wise. When I mention Manhattan, I mean more UES and less East Harlem. Let's call what I mean Manhattan Proper.

Yes, people seeking DTJC want cheaper but I think property values are still undervalued in DTJC and should reach Brooklyn Heights levels which would be more in line with the value you described..."parking, newer amenities,etc"

I tend to agree with you except for one HUGE limiting factor and that is the PATH.

Jersey City, particularly DTJC, has been on a development binge but has failed to improve or upgrade the underlying infrastructure. Most important of all this is arguably the PATH, which JC does not even control. Right now, rush hour trains are already packed to ridiculous levels (and unlike the NYC subways where people constantly get off the train, each PATH stop only brings in a new flood of people, at least until 9th street).

Other posters at Newport have said they have to get on a train going to JSQ just so they can have room for the trip into Manhattan. If this is how it is now I can't imagine how bad it's going to get after the 25,000+ apartments currently under construction get completed. Yes there are some signal improvements scheduled, but I doubt the extra train capacity comes near the increased load on the system the new apartments represent.

And no one is tackling the problem because it isn't their problem. Developers don't care, they just want to lease their buildings out. Fulop can't even do anything but I doubt he cares too much since he's thinking of his governor run and that election will take place before these problems really come to a head. And we all know the PA certainly doesn't care.

So I think the PATH will tremendously dampen DTJC's future property values. It's the sort of thing people won't realize until it is too late.

Dolomiti wrote:
Quote:

When the supply of rental units increases that dramatically, that increases competition among owners of rental units.

Aren't you forgetting something? Y'know, it's on the tip of my tongue, from that first week in Microecon 101, it's... it's... Oh yeah. It's demand.

Keeping in mind that no one has a crystal ball:

Rental prices are increasing all along the Gold Coast. As more supply comes onto the market, prices may drop a little bit, but they might not. It depends heavily on how many people want to rent those units.

While it is possible that some buildings will sell instead of rent, that kind of shift is not trivial and is not fast, especially in larger buildings. Condo conversions take at least 2 years, lots of paperwork, and dealing with recalcitrant tenants. I.e. We are not going to wake up one fine Tuesday morning with 50,000 new condos for sale in DTJC.

Even if that impossible scenario did happen, the market for condos is pretty healthy too. Demand is high right now for condo sales, which means the market probably can absorb a big increase in supply without killing condo prices.