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Re: Republican Convention
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This is going to be shocking but others were thinking the same thing based on the information available. Incredible, isn't it lol! Donald Trump?s chances of winning are approaching zero By Chris Cillizza and Aaron Blake October 24 https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/th ... ing-are-approaching-zero/
Posted on: 2016/11/10 18:16
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Re: Republican Convention
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At least he gave Trump a chance to win. You didn't. Not a chance. How silly was that?
Posted on: 2016/11/10 17:10
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Re: Republican Convention
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Nate Silver Blew It Bigly on the Election ? Can His Brand Recover?
?Nate was arrogant. His numbers were all over the place. The title of ?guru? is now gone,? media pundit Joe Concha tells TheWrap Brian Flood | November 9, 2016 @ 4:05 PM In 2012, when Mitt Romney seemed close to defeating President Obama, Democrats took to tweeting the slogan ?Keep Calm and Trust in Nate Silver.? The New York Times prognosticator called all 50 states correctly, and leveraged his fame as the nation?s predictor-in-chief into a new role at ESPN, where he founded the site FiveThirtyEight. But after Thursday?s win for Donald Trump, the days of trusting in Nate Silver may be over. Most pollsters and data journalists were wrong, too. But none have his reputation to live up to. ?Nate was arrogant. His numbers were all over the place. The title of ?guru? is now gone,? The Hill media reporter Joe Concha told TheWrap. He said Silver?s career will survive, but ?never again will he be held in any revered regard.? On Monday, Silver predicted that Trump had a 1-in-3 chance of defeating Hillary Clinton. Some other pundits thought Silver was being too generous: Huffington Post Washington bureau chief Ryan Grim accused him of ?putting his thumb on the scales? to give Trump a better chance of wining. (Grim tweeted an apology to Silver on Election Night, saying there was ?far more uncertainty than we were accounting for.?) By Tuesday morning, Silver?s site reported that Clinton had a 71.4 percent chance of winning the election. That was a huge improvement over his numbers earlier in the year: Back in January, Silver couldn?t make up his mind on where Trump stood. ?I don?t think his chances are zero. You have to be very careful about saying they?re zero, but I think they?re lower than 20 [percent] or 25 percent. Maybe they?re 10 percent. Maybe they?re 8 percent. I?m not sure, somewhere in that range,? Silver told Adweek. The credibility questions arrive at an odd time for FiveThirtyEight. ESPN shut down Grantland, its sports and pop culture website, abruptly in 2015 after the company had a nasty split with its founder, Bill Simmons. Grantland had a niche fan base and a staff of extremely talented writers ? just like FiveThirtyEight. But Grantland was relevant every day, while nobody will care about presidential polling for at least three years. FiveThirtyEight has branched out in other ways, covering sports data and even ranking burritos, so it clearly won?t limit itself to politics. Silver is the face of the data reporting, which had been seen as one of the only growth sectors in journalism. After this election, the threat to it may go well beyond one site. ?I?ve believed in data for 30 years in politics and data died tonight,? GOP strategist Mike Murphy tweeted. ?I could not have been more wrong about this election.? More than 16.5 million unique users, an all-time record, visited FiveThirtyEight on Election Night. http://www.thewrap.com/nate-silver-bl ... on-can-his-brand-recover/
Posted on: 2016/11/10 16:57
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Re: Republican Convention
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How did he call the election wrong? He gave Trump a possibility to win. You didn't. You called the election wrong and ignored polls that didn't fit your narrative. That's textbook foolishness and naivete.
Posted on: 2016/11/10 16:32
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Re: Republican Convention
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LOL 538 called the election wrong too. His site goes back to his roots - baseball statistics. Silver needs to generate interest 365 days a year. And as it turns out Clinton may squeak by with winning the popular vote. There are several good post-mortem analysis articles of how the polls were wrong - which I won't be posting. If you want to continue your foolish discussion, knock yourself out, but I'm going to move on.
Posted on: 2016/11/10 16:13
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Re: Republican Convention
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And you conveniently ignored 538's poll because you wanted to bury your head in the sand. I didn't even vote for Trump but you were being foolish.
Posted on: 2016/11/10 15:39
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Re: Republican Convention
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LOL - Funny going back reading this old stuff.
Posted on: 2016/11/10 14:54
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Re: Republican Convention
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It wasn't just a bad prediction. It was the smugness with which you made those predictions that annoyed people, and why they are jumping on you now. But, as discussed in some other thread, it is all over now and it is time to get on with the business of governing.
Posted on: 2016/11/10 2:26
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Re: Republican Convention
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I made a bad prediction based on foolish/flawed polling methods.
Posted on: 2016/11/10 2:00
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Re: Republican Convention
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It wasn't a once in a lifetime upset for 538. How do you explain that? You made a foolish prediction before the election, that's it.
Posted on: 2016/11/9 21:06
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Re: Republican Convention
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With 93% reported the New Jersey results are: Clinton - 55% - 1,950,192 Trump - 42% - 1,490,609 Johnson - 2% - 66,041 Stein - 1% - 35,001 A 458,853 vote difference not bad in a so called BLUE state. .
Posted on: 2016/11/9 17:56
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Re: Republican Convention
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Yup that's what happens with once in a lifetime upsets. Sam Wang PhD didn't get it right either. http://election.princeton.edu/2016/11 ... i-senate-seats-gop-house/
Posted on: 2016/11/9 17:53
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Re: Republican Convention
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So much for that prognostication.
Posted on: 2016/11/9 17:42
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Re: Republican Convention
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For those of us in mourning today, you may want to consider this...
It Is Possible for Trump To Be a Good President? By RICHARD W. PAINTER 2016-11-09T07:27:42-05:00 7:27 AM I am one of millions of Republicans who voted for Hillary Clinton because much of what I heard Donald J. Trump say on the campaign trail was nonsensical as well as hurtful to many Americans. But I take some comfort in thinking, while he will have to overcome many hurdles to be a good president, he can avoid being a bad president for two reasons. First, he would not have gotten this far ? he is the first non-politician to be elected president since Dwight Eisenhower ? if he were lacking in intelligence. Second, he very likely knows what the rest of us know: Most of the things he promised to do in order to get elected make no sense. And for that reason alone he may not do them. There is also the fact that even a Republican Congress may very well resist his policies, by, for instance, refusing to fund construction of the proposed wall bordering Mexico... more- http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/pr ... ump-to-bea-good-president
Posted on: 2016/11/9 15:59
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Re: Republican Convention
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2:40 am: Congratulations President Elect Trump!!! .
Posted on: 2016/11/9 7:48
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Re: Republican Convention
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Posted on: 2016/11/9 3:14
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Re: Republican Convention
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Arkansas paid back Hillary's 12 years as first lady with a landslide vote for for Trump.
Posted on: 2016/11/9 2:30
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Re: Republican Convention
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TRUMP doing great so far!!
Keep it up America!!
Posted on: 2016/11/9 2:17
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Re: Republican Convention
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Posted on: 2016/11/9 2:04
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My humor is for the silent blue collar majority - If my posts offend, slander or you deem inappropriate and seek deletion, contact the webmaster for jurisdiction.
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Re: Republican Convention
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Oh yah... we have never seen external audit firms compromised or complicit in in their certification of phony documents with the IRS? Once again those amended CFS 990s for all those years did not occur because CFS external audit found discovered the intentional omissions.
Posted on: 2016/11/8 11:25
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Re: Republican Convention
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Tomorrow morning.. it begins...
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Posted on: 2016/11/8 3:51
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Re: Republican Convention
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You don't have to trust the CFS. That's why 501c3s and 990s are audited by external firms (PwC)
Posted on: 2016/11/8 3:21
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Re: Republican Convention
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Good! Progressive liberals democract shaking in boots! They smell defeat! Melania will soon move her shoes into whitehouse! Go Trump! Lucky for us Amish don't use Twitter lol!
Posted on: 2016/11/8 3:06
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Re: Republican Convention
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Amish Trump supporter asks for 20 cars to help get the Amish to the Polls...
https://twitter.com/AMike4761/status/795722886636048385 Gets 1,500 volunteers.
Posted on: 2016/11/8 2:51
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Re: Republican Convention
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Don't have an opinion on that Charity site... except to say, once again this site is dependent on CFS 990s and CFS website for their information to assess. Looking at CFS... Admin Expenses are 3X what most charities are... no controls on CEO Compensation, which probably means Board Members too.... additionally http://www.thenonprofittimes.com/news ... ation-re-files-form-990s/ With that track record... anything they file should be suspect, which is why the FBI is being restricted from taking a deep dive into the CFS by Lynch and Obama. I especially like how they did not report revenue from speeches.
Posted on: 2016/11/8 2:16
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Re: Republican Convention
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Of course it was.... when do you think the Clinton's last picked up a dinner check? I was trying to figure out a way to describe the "nouveau riche" Clinton Family and it would lay somewhere between the Beverly Hillbillies and the Kadashians and the Sopranos. I actually feel bad comparing the insufferable Kadashians to the Clintons.
Posted on: 2016/11/8 1:55
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Re: Republican Convention
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Apparently Chelsea's wedding was a charitable cause.
Posted on: 2016/11/8 1:40
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Re: Republican Convention
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Do you also have issues with Charity Navigator? It gives the Clinton Foundation a 4-star rating (its best rating): https://www.charitynavigator.org/index ... earch.summary&orgid=16680
Posted on: 2016/11/8 1:31
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Re: Republican Convention
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Any mention of how much went to pay for Chelsea's wedding... you don't think Bill and Hillary would have paid for it? http://nypost.com/2016/11/06/chelsea- ... p-pay-for-wedding-emails/ FactCheck.org is phony "non-partisan" group funded by George Soros. The fact is CFS rarely files appropriate paperwork required by law on time and unless they pushed. When they do file something, it usually turns out to be filled with lies or with information left out. The initial filing goes on the public record and then months later they file an amendment to "correct the math error or omission in reporting a donor" The filing FactCheck reviewed was a lie to begin with and they help spread disinformation.
Posted on: 2016/11/7 23:44
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