My surge prediction link didn't work.....

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/e ... e5045936?utm_hp_ref=world

PSE&G is closely monitoring Tropical Storm Hermine and the possibility it could impact our service territory beginning Sunday. The storm could bring the potential for heavy rain and strong winds as it sweeps up the east coast and possibly lingers into next week.

In anticipation of the storm, PSE&G is ensuring that all available personnel are ready to respond beginning early tomorrow morning. We are also ensuring that additional supplies, including poles and transformers, are on hand.

Depending on the track of the storm, Hermine may stall off the New Jersey coast, bringing prolonged periods of wind and rain to our service territory. In addition to having additional personnel and equipment at the ready, we are installing barriers at a number of substations to keep water out. We have already elevated several switching and substations above flood level in preparation for this kind of severe weather.

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PSE&G offers the following tips to help you prepare:

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Charge your cell phones, tablets and other mobile devices.
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Looks like we might not get too much. Thanks for all this info -- MDM & also thanks to Brewster for surge link.

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So for those of you who are good at parsing these numbers, what's your best sense of flooding potential downtown? It doesn't sound anything close to the scope of Sandy, but how bad is it likely to get for flood-prone streets or those who live in garden-level apartments?

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Just to be clear for the newbies, there's 2 metrics used, peak high water, and "surge over predicted tide". The number I posted was the latter. During Sandy the news confused the hell out of people mixing them up. The SURGE over the normal predicted tide was 9', HIGH WATER was 14. To be even more confusing, there's 2 baselines that might be used, Mean Low Water, the most common, vs Average Height.

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Agreed, I was just coming by to say the same exact thing. I don't understand any of these graphs, so the updates are really useful. Thank you so much. My parents live in Little Egg Harbor on a lagoon, so I'm watching this thread for them as well. Stay Safe everyone and thank you again MDM

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If you are on a barrier island, you might want to make plans on bugging out. 15ft+ waves and a possible big storm surge. Bigger the farther south you go.

How's the Jersey shore looking?

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Thanks for the continued updates, MDM. They're very helpful.

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Rain totals are modeled to b 0.25 inch or less.

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The monitoring equipment failed when the surge hit 12 ft at Battery Park. I read it was up to 14 ft in places.

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For comparison, how high were the surges during Sandy?

The three models I looked at show the storm hanging off our coast, with the really heavy rain down in South Jersey. Up by us its going to be an inch of rain and a lot of wind.

All three are still showing this storm stalling off the coast of South Jersey and then slowly moving away. It appears we are going to have this storm around for 72+ hours starting on Sunday.

Weatherbell predicts the same, though they have the track closer to the coast than the models. They are also predicting it intensifying to a category 2 storm once it exits North Carolina, due to the unusually warm water off the coast.

Stevens has the surge at only ~1.7 feet right now. Hope it stays there.

http://hudson.dl.stevens-tech.edu/sfas/d/index.shtml?station=N017

Thanks, MDM.

I'm not sure why half the counties in NJ, including western and northern ones like Sussex and Hunterdon have hurricane weather statement alerts or watches but Hudson doesn't?

The evening update for the GFS model has the storm stalling farther east and then going out to sea. This is fairly positive for us as we don't get that much rain (less than an inch), the wind isn't too awful. The biggest threat comes from storm surge during high tide for the people in the downtown.

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I am just showing what the Euro model shows which updated only 2 hours ago. The NOAA model hasn't been updated as recently. The Euro shows almost no additional rain after the storm pulls out mid week, within the 10 day period.

The Euro has been better than the other models in forecasting Atlantic storms.

The ten day rain forecast? How responsible of you

The five day gives us 1-1.25" of rain

Updated Euro. It shows the stall like the Canadian, but farther out to sea. South Jersey gets the worse of it with near hurricane force winds along the shore.

Quote: That looks terrible. After Sandy and all the flooding I experienced, I'm glad I moved up the hill to mcginley square.

The updated Canadian model is now showing a tropical storm stalling over us for days. Had to break up the run in two gifs below. I also posted the 10 day rain totals, which show flood level inducing rains (sorry Brewster)....

This site has basically every map/model you could ask for:

Mike's Weather Page

MDW, I appreciate you alerting us to this issue well before the media. Hopefully nothing will happens, but it gave me a few extra days of notice. I had travel planned for this week and was able to make some adjustments. Last thing I wanted is to be stranded in an airport.

Weatherbell's morning update:


Pretty much the same as yesterday: Cat 1/2 storm sits off the coast, eventually skating past Eastern Long Island and RI.

For inland flooding, the 2007 nor'easter produced worse flooding downtown than both Irene and Sandy.


http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/16/nyregion/16storm.html
http://www.hudsonreporter.com/view/fu ... ate-from-stormwater-pipes

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Irene hit us after two months of exceptionally wet weather. I lost a pear-apple tree because the ground beneath it basically liquefied. The roots had nothing to hold onto.

The models show the storm stalling off the Mid Atlantic. Where it goes after the stall period is the issue. The models however, show the storm shifting further West now, which is not good for us.