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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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jcwalkingman wrote:
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vindication15 wrote:

Safer? No
http://www.areavibes.com/harrison-nj/crime/

http://www.areavibes.com/jersey+city-nj/downtown/crime/

Look at the chances of being a victim of violent crime and property crime in both areas.

If space is what you are looking for, I hear you can get a lot of space in tulsa oklahoma..

I know a colleague who moved from Manhattan back to the south with his family. I should mention that he got laid off...

So yeah, I guess it does depend on circumstances..


Did you even look at the numbers? Why did you post something that completely disproves your point? LOL


Downtown Jersey City:
Murders per 100,000: 8
Rapes per 100,000: 14
Assault per 100,000: 344
Violent crime per 100,000: 644

Harrison:
Murders per 100,000: 0
Rapes per 100,000: 0
Assault per 100,000: 222 (35% lower than downtown Jersey City's rate)
Violent crime per 100,000: 451

You are TOO funny.


As for condos coming online next year, Oakman is aiming for Dec 2016, and 213-215 Bay should be complete by that time too. It sounds like Gulls Cove II will be complete by Spring 2017, and Provost Square phase II is looking like early 2018.


You work for fox news? Way to distort the facts. First of all, there is more than two times more people in dtjc than harrison (15k versus 37k) so of course the overall number is lower.

What you want to know, and I said it in my earlier post, is the percentage of chance you are likely to be a victim. In harrison it is higher..

The chance of being a victim of violent crime in Harrison is 1 in 222. In DTJC, it is 1 in 288.

The chance of being a victim of crime in Harrison is 1 in 38. In DTJC, it is 1 in 74.


Posted on: 2015/9/6 21:02
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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jcwalkingman wrote:

........

One last note - I've gone to several open houses in the past few weeks and all the units I've seen were investor-owned. Seems like investors are starting to cash in.


I have noticed that quite a few brownstones have gone on the market recently (550 Jersey, 556 Jersey, one on Morris near the Light Horse, and a big one on Montgomery by VVP), more than usual in the last few years. I'm no expert in real estate, but my first thought after seeing those listings was that "are we peaking? are people trying to cash in before the price crashes?"


Investors cashing in profits is not necessarily a sign of an impending crash. Most likely, they are getting unsolicited "all cash" offers, probably above estimated value, and they are choosing to cash in. I would, given that the real estate market (particularly brownstones and single family homes) in DTJC *will* take a hit once the reval happens, and it will happen. It's only a matter of time.

Posted on: 2015/9/6 12:01
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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I hope not cause Im looking forward to selling my condo I bought real cheap for a hundred grand profit,,,,to some coke snoy

Posted on: 2015/9/6 2:23
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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As for condos coming online next year, Oakman is aiming for Dec 2016, and 213-215 Bay should be complete by that time too. It sounds like Gulls Cove II will be complete by Spring 2017, and Provost Square phase II is looking like early 2018.


Your original claim is that over 500 units were under construction for delivery by end of 2016. The number sounded too high to me, which is why I asked what condo projects you had in mind. The Oakman will be around 160 units. I don't have any information on 213 Bay, but given its location and lot size, it can't possibly be more than a handful of units. That's 200 units, tops.

Gulls Cove II is NOWHERE NEAR completion, let alone even start. There's nothing happening there.

Provost Square will bring about 500 condo units, but those are far into the future. It's too early to tell if they will manifest themselves as such. If the market takes a dive, or weakens significantly, the builder could change plans and go with rentals.

Posted on: 2015/9/6 2:18
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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jcwalkingman wrote:
It sounds like Gulls Cove II will be complete by Spring 2017.


YOU are TOO funny!


Pre-construction sales not going well?

Posted on: 2015/9/6 1:34
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It sounds like Gulls Cove II will be complete by Spring 2017.


YOU are TOO funny!

Posted on: 2015/9/6 1:25
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vindication15 wrote:

Safer? No
http://www.areavibes.com/harrison-nj/crime/

http://www.areavibes.com/jersey+city-nj/downtown/crime/

Look at the chances of being a victim of violent crime and property crime in both areas.

If space is what you are looking for, I hear you can get a lot of space in tulsa oklahoma..

I know a colleague who moved from Manhattan back to the south with his family. I should mention that he got laid off...

So yeah, I guess it does depend on circumstances..


Did you even look at the numbers? Why did you post something that completely disproves your point? LOL


Downtown Jersey City:
Murders per 100,000: 8
Rapes per 100,000: 14
Assault per 100,000: 344
Violent crime per 100,000: 644

Harrison:
Murders per 100,000: 0
Rapes per 100,000: 0
Assault per 100,000: 222 (35% lower than downtown Jersey City's rate)
Violent crime per 100,000: 451

You are TOO funny.


As for condos coming online next year, Oakman is aiming for Dec 2016, and 213-215 Bay should be complete by that time too. It sounds like Gulls Cove II will be complete by Spring 2017, and Provost Square phase II is looking like early 2018.

Posted on: 2015/9/6 1:19
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STOP! DTJC is the cheapest "safe" neighborhood in the metro area, and certainly the only one with quick transit to lower Manhattan other than Brooklyn Heights. Yesterday, Metro or AM NY featured East NY or Brownsville, I forget which. Prices are high/life is cheap. This constant onesy-twosy example to show that prices are falling reminds me of something I recently read: The Nerds mantra: The plural of anecdote isn't data.

Oh, and for those who know many, quite a few and/or a number who, can you specify - 07302 has about 40,000 people.

I think we do have a real housing problem in DTJC, the lack of large apartments. A family with a boy and a girl needs a 3 bedroom apartment, add to that a parent who works from home and you might need a study/office as well. Maybe that's why people leave for the burbs. We are losing people because of Le Choix du Roi (look it up).

Posted on: 2015/9/5 11:14
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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jcwalkingman wrote:

........

One last note - I've gone to several open houses in the past few weeks and all the units I've seen were investor-owned. Seems like investors are starting to cash in.


I have noticed that quite a few brownstones have gone on the market recently (550 Jersey, 556 Jersey, one on Morris near the Light Horse, and a big one on Montgomery by VVP), more than usual in the last few years. I'm no expert in real estate, but my first thought after seeing those listings was that "are we peaking? are people trying to cash in before the price crashes?"

Posted on: 2015/9/4 16:52
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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JCMan8 wrote:
It's unclear to me if this is evidence of a JC bubble or not.

It isn't.

They're using a relatively new metric, which notes what percentages of homes go down. Real estate prices were rising steadily last year, yet around 20% of homes still lost value that year. (We also aren't looking at years of data, to get an idea about what is normal.)

We already know that prices have cooled a bit in 2015... and again, that's perfectly normal. No market goes up constantly. Few real estate markets go up uniformly across the board. Not every decline in value means that a bubble has burst, let alone formed in the first place.


I agree - def not evidence of a bubble. But if you compare rents in areas surrounding downtown to rents for comps in downtown, you'll see that the rents downtown are much lower relative to purchase prices than in those other areas; this is one thing that seems to suggest that asking prices are completely out of sync with reality and that they're being driven by speculation at this point - speculation that they'll keep going up at a relatively rapid pace. This speculation arose from the perception that downtown is rapidly changing, which is a false impression related to the surge in construction over the past two years, which itself was simply the result of a lack of construction over the previous 8 years (of course the Fulop administration's dozens of high-profile PR pieces and massive "Make it Yours" campaign had also contributed to the hype that is now dying off). Construction grinding to a halt once demand has largely been satisfied, or drop in rents due to oversupply of rental units - or both - will wake buyers up to reality. There's been a sort of hysteria in the market as it has oscillated from one extreme to another in the past several years and this isn't a healthy thing.

There are 3,500 additional new units downtown, 500 in JSQ, and another 1,000 (much cheaper for the same quality) in Harrison (total = 5,000) coming online by year-end, and this will definitely impact rents. Lower rents will make renting more attractive while the impending slowdown in construction will dull the perception that downtown is rapidly changing. Buyers are going to begin to pay more attention to the large undeveloped lots when cranes and other construction equipment disappear.

Also keep in mind that the inventory shortage has contributed to the price surge of the past 2 years, but there are now hundreds of new condos coming online for the first time in a decade; supply is about to surge and there's no evidence that demand is also about to surge (actually quite the opposite), which may definitely result in an oversupply of for-sale units.

One last note - I've gone to several open houses in the past few weeks and all the units I've seen were investor-owned. Seems like investors are starting to cash in.



Lol. No one is choosing between harrison or dtjc. That choice is like saying to your kids, "hey, want to go to a waterpark or want to close your eyes and let me spray you with a garden hose?"



By "no one" I assume you mean no one in your group of friends. I know many people who have moved from Newport and the Grove Street area to Harrison in the past year or so. Alot of young families who are looking for a safer & quieter neighborhood than you see in most parts of downtown.

Anyway, getting back on topic, the point is that there are many, many new rental units coming online in the next 3 months alone, and the competition is going to impact rents, which should encourage more people to rent and reduce buyer demand. At the same time there are all the condos I mentioned coming online (roughly 500 already U/C for late 2016 delivery). That supply/demand balance should be tipping back in the buyer's favor within a year or so.


Safer? No
http://www.areavibes.com/harrison-nj/crime/

http://www.areavibes.com/jersey+city-nj/downtown/crime/

Look at the chances of being a victim of violent crime and property crime in both areas.

If space is what you are looking for, I hear you can get a lot of space in tulsa oklahoma..

I know a colleague who moved from Manhattan back to the south with his family. I should mention that he got laid off...

So yeah, I guess it does depend on circumstances..

Posted on: 2015/9/4 16:47
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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vindication15 wrote:
Lol. No one is choosing between harrison or dtjc. That choice is like saying to your kids, "hey, want to go to a waterpark or want to close your eyes and let me spray you with a garden hose?"

I for one disagree. It's a little further out, but still accessible via PATH. People who can't afford downtown JC will likly now look at JSQ and Harrison.


In two years once the tens of thousands of new units are up in JSQ and DTJC, moving to Harrison comes with the added bonus of being able to get on the PATH train. Because these trains will be packed to the gills before they leave JSQ.


This is a HUGE potential issue for further growth in JC. As it is, some of these PATH trains are already fairly full by the the time they arrive in Grove. Often times, I see people get left behind at the Newport station because they can not get on. If JSQ really takes off, getting on a train at Grove will be hard.


And the problem is no one in power really has an incentive to deal with this properly. Developers just want to make as much money as they can, understandably. They seem to think the quickest way to this goal is load up on high density "luxury" units, the more the better.

Fulop has no incentive either, as if he has his way he will be long gone in 2 years, occupying the governor position. He probably wants to help developers out as much as he can do they will throw their support behind him in his governor run. And he'll be gone before these problems really come to a head so they likely won't be an issue in his governor run. I'm not even saying this to bash him, as I understand his thought process. It happens to be very short term and selfish, but it's certainly not uncommon.

And what does the PA care about the situation? Probably not at all, because it's not like they have much control over it anyway.

Posted on: 2015/9/4 15:33
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vindication15 wrote:
Lol. No one is choosing between harrison or dtjc. That choice is like saying to your kids, "hey, want to go to a waterpark or want to close your eyes and let me spray you with a garden hose?"

I for one disagree. It's a little further out, but still accessible via PATH. People who can't afford downtown JC will likly now look at JSQ and Harrison.


In two years once the tens of thousands of new units are up in JSQ and DTJC, moving to Harrison comes with the added bonus of being able to get on the PATH train. Because these trains will be packed to the gills before they leave JSQ.


This is a HUGE potential issue for further growth in JC. As it is, some of these PATH trains are already fairly full by the the time they arrive in Grove. Often times, I see people get left behind at the Newport station because they can not get on. If JSQ really takes off, getting on a train at Grove will be hard.


What time is this? I get on at Newport between 845-915 and it's not crowded in the back. Can't get a seat but you can stand without getting smushed.

Posted on: 2015/9/4 15:15
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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vindication15 wrote:
Lol. No one is choosing between harrison or dtjc. That choice is like saying to your kids, "hey, want to go to a waterpark or want to close your eyes and let me spray you with a garden hose?"

I for one disagree. It's a little further out, but still accessible via PATH. People who can't afford downtown JC will likly now look at JSQ and Harrison.


In two years once the tens of thousands of new units are up in JSQ and DTJC, moving to Harrison comes with the added bonus of being able to get on the PATH train. Because these trains will be packed to the gills before they leave JSQ.


This is a HUGE potential issue for further growth in JC. As it is, some of these PATH trains are already fairly full by the the time they arrive in Grove. Often times, I see people get left behind at the Newport station because they can not get on. If JSQ really takes off, getting on a train at Grove will be hard.

Posted on: 2015/9/4 15:00
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vindication15 wrote:
Lol. No one is choosing between harrison or dtjc. That choice is like saying to your kids, "hey, want to go to a waterpark or want to close your eyes and let me spray you with a garden hose?"

I for one disagree. It's a little further out, but still accessible via PATH. People who can't afford downtown JC will likly now look at JSQ and Harrison.


In two years once the tens of thousands of new units are up in JSQ and DTJC, moving to Harrison comes with the added bonus of being able to get on the PATH train. Because these trains will be packed to the gills before they leave JSQ.

Posted on: 2015/9/4 14:45
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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vindication15 wrote:
Lol. No one is choosing between harrison or dtjc. That choice is like saying to your kids, "hey, want to go to a waterpark or want to close your eyes and let me spray you with a garden hose?"

I for one disagree. It's a little further out, but still accessible via PATH. People who can't afford downtown JC will likly now look at JSQ and Harrison.


I am not sure that Harrison is yet attracting large volumes of people, but I have no doubt it will be a draw soon. For one, it is a "nicer" area than other JC areas currently lagging in their gentrification process. Throw in the approved new PATH station ($500 million!!) and all the new construction happening in the immediate vicinity of the PATH station, and I can see people choosing to go there instead of JSQ or BeLa. And, I say this as a HUGE fan of DTJC and the BeLa neighborhood. Sadly, BeLa just can't seem to catch a break. Every time you see some progress, things just slow down after a while. JSQ is very rough around the edges and the Heights has its transportation / proximity issues.

Posted on: 2015/9/4 14:39
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jcwalkingman wrote:
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JCMan8 wrote:
It's unclear to me if this is evidence of a JC bubble or not.

It isn't.

They're using a relatively new metric, which notes what percentages of homes go down. Real estate prices were rising steadily last year, yet around 20% of homes still lost value that year. (We also aren't looking at years of data, to get an idea about what is normal.)

We already know that prices have cooled a bit in 2015... and again, that's perfectly normal. No market goes up constantly. Few real estate markets go up uniformly across the board. Not every decline in value means that a bubble has burst, let alone formed in the first place.


I agree - def not evidence of a bubble. But if you compare rents in areas surrounding downtown to rents for comps in downtown, you'll see that the rents downtown are much lower relative to purchase prices than in those other areas; this is one thing that seems to suggest that asking prices are completely out of sync with reality and that they're being driven by speculation at this point - speculation that they'll keep going up at a relatively rapid pace. This speculation arose from the perception that downtown is rapidly changing, which is a false impression related to the surge in construction over the past two years, which itself was simply the result of a lack of construction over the previous 8 years (of course the Fulop administration's dozens of high-profile PR pieces and massive "Make it Yours" campaign had also contributed to the hype that is now dying off). Construction grinding to a halt once demand has largely been satisfied, or drop in rents due to oversupply of rental units - or both - will wake buyers up to reality. There's been a sort of hysteria in the market as it has oscillated from one extreme to another in the past several years and this isn't a healthy thing.

There are 3,500 additional new units downtown, 500 in JSQ, and another 1,000 (much cheaper for the same quality) in Harrison (total = 5,000) coming online by year-end, and this will definitely impact rents. Lower rents will make renting more attractive while the impending slowdown in construction will dull the perception that downtown is rapidly changing. Buyers are going to begin to pay more attention to the large undeveloped lots when cranes and other construction equipment disappear.

Also keep in mind that the inventory shortage has contributed to the price surge of the past 2 years, but there are now hundreds of new condos coming online for the first time in a decade; supply is about to surge and there's no evidence that demand is also about to surge (actually quite the opposite), which may definitely result in an oversupply of for-sale units.

One last note - I've gone to several open houses in the past few weeks and all the units I've seen were investor-owned. Seems like investors are starting to cash in.



Lol. No one is choosing between harrison or dtjc. That choice is like saying to your kids, "hey, want to go to a waterpark or want to close your eyes and let me spray you with a garden hose?"



By "no one" I assume you mean no one in your group of friends. I know many people who have moved from Newport and the Grove Street area to Harrison in the past year or so. Alot of young families who are looking for a safer & quieter neighborhood than you see in most parts of downtown.

Anyway, getting back on topic, the point is that there are many, many new rental units coming online in the next 3 months alone, and the competition is going to impact rents, which should encourage more people to rent and reduce buyer demand. At the same time there are all the condos I mentioned coming online (roughly 500 already U/C for late 2016 delivery). That supply/demand balance should be tipping back in the buyer's favor within a year or so.


I am definitely inclined to agree with you if the actual number reaches 500. But, besides The Oakman, I think the other condo projects are behind schedule and will not come online until 2017. The rest of the Provost Square towers (which are going to be condos) are running behind schedule and there is no way they are coming online in 2016. Heck, the Oakman may not actually make its late 2016 move in date, and they already have the building shell in place.

If you don't mind me asking, what condo projects are you thinking will be ready by late 2016?

Posted on: 2015/9/4 14:35
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Lol. No one is choosing between harrison or dtjc. That choice is like saying to your kids, "hey, want to go to a waterpark or want to close your eyes and let me spray you with a garden hose?"

I for one disagree. It's a little further out, but still accessible via PATH. People who can't afford downtown JC will likly now look at JSQ and Harrison.

Posted on: 2015/9/4 13:54
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JCMan8 wrote:
It's unclear to me if this is evidence of a JC bubble or not.

It isn't.

They're using a relatively new metric, which notes what percentages of homes go down. Real estate prices were rising steadily last year, yet around 20% of homes still lost value that year. (We also aren't looking at years of data, to get an idea about what is normal.)

We already know that prices have cooled a bit in 2015... and again, that's perfectly normal. No market goes up constantly. Few real estate markets go up uniformly across the board. Not every decline in value means that a bubble has burst, let alone formed in the first place.


I agree - def not evidence of a bubble. But if you compare rents in areas surrounding downtown to rents for comps in downtown, you'll see that the rents downtown are much lower relative to purchase prices than in those other areas; this is one thing that seems to suggest that asking prices are completely out of sync with reality and that they're being driven by speculation at this point - speculation that they'll keep going up at a relatively rapid pace. This speculation arose from the perception that downtown is rapidly changing, which is a false impression related to the surge in construction over the past two years, which itself was simply the result of a lack of construction over the previous 8 years (of course the Fulop administration's dozens of high-profile PR pieces and massive "Make it Yours" campaign had also contributed to the hype that is now dying off). Construction grinding to a halt once demand has largely been satisfied, or drop in rents due to oversupply of rental units - or both - will wake buyers up to reality. There's been a sort of hysteria in the market as it has oscillated from one extreme to another in the past several years and this isn't a healthy thing.

There are 3,500 additional new units downtown, 500 in JSQ, and another 1,000 (much cheaper for the same quality) in Harrison (total = 5,000) coming online by year-end, and this will definitely impact rents. Lower rents will make renting more attractive while the impending slowdown in construction will dull the perception that downtown is rapidly changing. Buyers are going to begin to pay more attention to the large undeveloped lots when cranes and other construction equipment disappear.

Also keep in mind that the inventory shortage has contributed to the price surge of the past 2 years, but there are now hundreds of new condos coming online for the first time in a decade; supply is about to surge and there's no evidence that demand is also about to surge (actually quite the opposite), which may definitely result in an oversupply of for-sale units.

One last note - I've gone to several open houses in the past few weeks and all the units I've seen were investor-owned. Seems like investors are starting to cash in.



Lol. No one is choosing between harrison or dtjc. That choice is like saying to your kids, "hey, want to go to a waterpark or want to close your eyes and let me spray you with a garden hose?"



By "no one" I assume you mean no one in your group of friends. I know many people who have moved from Newport and the Grove Street area to Harrison in the past year or so. Alot of young families who are looking for a safer & quieter neighborhood than you see in most parts of downtown.

Anyway, getting back on topic, the point is that there are many, many new rental units coming online in the next 3 months alone, and the competition is going to impact rents, which should encourage more people to rent and reduce buyer demand. At the same time there are all the condos I mentioned coming online (roughly 500 already U/C for late 2016 delivery). That supply/demand balance should be tipping back in the buyer's favor within a year or so.

Posted on: 2015/9/4 5:15

Edited by jcwalkingman on 2015/9/4 5:32:43
Edited by jcwalkingman on 2015/9/4 5:34:28
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JCMan8 wrote:
It's unclear to me if this is evidence of a JC bubble or not.

It isn't.

They're using a relatively new metric, which notes what percentages of homes go down. Real estate prices were rising steadily last year, yet around 20% of homes still lost value that year. (We also aren't looking at years of data, to get an idea about what is normal.)

We already know that prices have cooled a bit in 2015... and again, that's perfectly normal. No market goes up constantly. Few real estate markets go up uniformly across the board. Not every decline in value means that a bubble has burst, let alone formed in the first place.


I agree - def not evidence of a bubble. But if you compare rents in areas surrounding downtown to rents for comps in downtown, you'll see that the rents downtown are much lower relative to purchase prices than in those other areas; this is one thing that seems to suggest that asking prices are completely out of sync with reality and that they're being driven by speculation at this point - speculation that they'll keep going up at a relatively rapid pace. This speculation arose from the perception that downtown is rapidly changing, which is a false impression related to the surge in construction over the past two years, which itself was simply the result of a lack of construction over the previous 8 years (of course the Fulop administration's dozens of high-profile PR pieces and massive "Make it Yours" campaign had also contributed to the hype that is now dying off). Construction grinding to a halt once demand has largely been satisfied, or drop in rents due to oversupply of rental units - or both - will wake buyers up to reality. There's been a sort of hysteria in the market as it has oscillated from one extreme to another in the past several years and this isn't a healthy thing.

There are 3,500 additional new units downtown, 500 in JSQ, and another 1,000 (much cheaper for the same quality) in Harrison (total = 5,000) coming online by year-end, and this will definitely impact rents. Lower rents will make renting more attractive while the impending slowdown in construction will dull the perception that downtown is rapidly changing. Buyers are going to begin to pay more attention to the large undeveloped lots when cranes and other construction equipment disappear.

Also keep in mind that the inventory shortage has contributed to the price surge of the past 2 years, but there are now hundreds of new condos coming online for the first time in a decade; supply is about to surge and there's no evidence that demand is also about to surge (actually quite the opposite), which may definitely result in an oversupply of for-sale units.

One last note - I've gone to several open houses in the past few weeks and all the units I've seen were investor-owned. Seems like investors are starting to cash in.



Lol. No one is choosing between harrison or dtjc. That choice is like saying to your kids, "hey, want to go to a waterpark or want to close your eyes and let me spray you with a garden hose?"


Posted on: 2015/9/4 4:14
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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JCMan8 wrote:
It's unclear to me if this is evidence of a JC bubble or not.

It isn't.

They're using a relatively new metric, which notes what percentages of homes go down. Real estate prices were rising steadily last year, yet around 20% of homes still lost value that year. (We also aren't looking at years of data, to get an idea about what is normal.)

We already know that prices have cooled a bit in 2015... and again, that's perfectly normal. No market goes up constantly. Few real estate markets go up uniformly across the board. Not every decline in value means that a bubble has burst, let alone formed in the first place.


I agree - def not evidence of a bubble. But if you compare rents in areas surrounding downtown to rents for comps in downtown, you'll see that the rents downtown are much lower relative to purchase prices than in those other areas; this is one thing that seems to suggest that asking prices are completely out of sync with reality and that they're being driven by speculation at this point - speculation that they'll keep going up at a relatively rapid pace. This speculation arose from the perception that downtown is rapidly changing, which is a false impression related to the surge in construction over the past two years, which itself was simply the result of a lack of construction over the previous 8 years (of course the Fulop administration's dozens of high-profile PR pieces and massive "Make it Yours" campaign had also contributed to the hype that is now dying off). Construction grinding to a halt once demand has largely been satisfied, or drop in rents due to oversupply of rental units - or both - will wake buyers up to reality. There's been a sort of hysteria in the market as it has oscillated from one extreme to another in the past several years and this isn't a healthy thing.

There are 3,500 additional new units downtown, 500 in JSQ, and another 1,000 (much cheaper for the same quality) in Harrison (total = 5,000) coming online by year-end, and this will definitely impact rents. Lower rents will make renting more attractive while the impending slowdown in construction will dull the perception that downtown is rapidly changing. Buyers are going to begin to pay more attention to the large undeveloped lots when cranes and other construction equipment disappear.

Also keep in mind that the inventory shortage has contributed to the price surge of the past 2 years, but there are now hundreds of new condos coming online for the first time in a decade; supply is about to surge and there's no evidence that demand is also about to surge (actually quite the opposite), which may definitely result in an oversupply of for-sale units.

One last note - I've gone to several open houses in the past few weeks and all the units I've seen were investor-owned. Seems like investors are starting to cash in.

Posted on: 2015/9/4 2:32
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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JCMan8 wrote:
It's unclear to me if this is evidence of a JC bubble or not.

It isn't.

They're using a relatively new metric, which notes what percentages of homes go down. Real estate prices were rising steadily last year, yet around 20% of homes still lost value that year. (We also aren't looking at years of data, to get an idea about what is normal.)

We already know that prices have cooled a bit in 2015... and again, that's perfectly normal. No market goes up constantly. Few real estate markets go up uniformly across the board. Not every decline in value means that a bubble has burst, let alone formed in the first place.

Posted on: 2015/9/3 23:38
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JCMan8 wrote:
Bloomberg reports that half of all homes in the New York area are losing value.


However, this only measures homes, not apartments, so Manhattan was not tracked.


It's unclear to me if this is evidence of a JC bubble or not.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/article ... -d-c-are-now-losing-value

Manhattan has become a safety-deposit box for foreign money, and a source of bragging rights for hedgefunders. It's sensible to keep it out of the metrics.

I think the author's point about certain sections of a given housing market rising while another falls is critical to understand in depth. I'm seeing you the market for places like mine - 1 be condos in the Heights continue to stagnate. Outside of DTJC, what are the other bright spots?

Posted on: 2015/9/3 22:59
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Bloomberg reports that half of all homes in the New York area are losing value. However, this only measures homes, not apartments, so Manhattan was not tracked. It's unclear to me if this is evidence of a JC bubble or not. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/article ... -d-c-are-now-losing-value

Posted on: 2015/9/3 22:19
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bodhipooh wrote:
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BobNesta wrote:
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bodhipooh wrote:
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BobNesta wrote:
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bodhipooh wrote:
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BobNesta wrote:
There are actually a good number of foreign buyers, especially in the "luxury" high rises. They either use them as 2nd, 3rd, etc. family homes or homes that their kids can live in or rent them out.

Regarding inventory, especially downtown, I wonder how the short term rental companies impact the market: https://www.skycityapts.com/. I'd normally say it is negligible, but they seem to be expanding and have secured a sizable office space on Grand Street. I have also noticed an influx of tourists in the area.


I don't think short term rental companies like Sky City Apartments affect the market as much as people like to believe. For many buildings in the area, Sky City is a solution that allows them to fill a vacancy in a simple and quick manner. If someone needs to move out, or is evicted, a building can rent out the newly-empty unit to Sky City without letting the unit sit empty for a long while. They don't buy units, they rent units. They then turn around and offer those units as short term rentals. From what I have seen, they cater to a higher end clientele (corporate clients and European tourists) and they are mindful of their neighbors, always ensuring to tell their customers to be mindful of noise, etc.


I understand that they do not buy units, but rather rent them. If they rent 100s of units, that decreases the rental supply thereby potentially impacting the rental market. I have no idea how many units they rent, but I would imagine it's far larger than a dozen given the fact that they've invested in a fairly large office.


I suppose I could agree with you, but then we would both be wrong. There is no need to "imagine" a number. You can look at their site (to which you yourself linked) and see that they only have 31 units in JC. Nowhere near 100s, and definitely not enough units to actually impact the market.


Agree with me on what? I have merely raised a point of discussion, not come to a definitive conclusion. 31 units and likely growing. 31 units is approximately 1/3 of the entire Charles & Co building. How many other short places operate in JC? You can't say this has no impact on the rental market.


Not quite one third, but close. There are 99 apartments at Charles & Co. But, they don't have 31 units in that building. They 31 units in ALL OF JC. In just 07302, there are over 13,000 apartments. 31 apartments is not even half of one percent!! It is one quarter of one percent. If you think that has an impact on the market, well... you are free to believe whatever you want. It's just that the data doesn't support your speculation.


Yes, not quite one third, but close...that's why I chose to use the word approximately. Figure out how many rentals there are in dtjc being rented by these companies and then tell me what the data supports. Read my initial post and note that I said companies "like" Sky City. These companies have a apts in all luxury buildings in dtjc....Sky City's not the only game in town.


I see... You are like the resident crazy hag Yvonne. You speculate about something, about which you are then corrected. Instead of leaving it at that, you double down with more nonsense and by changing speculation from the original contention.

You make an outlandish contention and you then expect me to disprove it? How about you prove what you claim? For the record, I only know of two companies locally that do "short term rentals" as their main business model: Sky City Apartments and Furnished Quarters. Perhaps you know of 10 others that collectively hold a "massive" portfolio of 500 apartments and are somehow controlling and affecting the market. Or, maybe you are just spouting nonsense. I'm going with the latter.


crazy? I'll refrain from name calling and insults, as I can tell this message board means a lot more to you than me. You haven't corrected me on anything. You've merely attempted to create an argument out of a point of discussion. No one mentioned controlling the market. Google short term rentals and variations of the term in Jersey City and you will find plenty of listings and companies, some of which are national, with apartments throughout JC's "luxury" buildings.

If you don't think a few percentage points can impact a market, then keep on "thinking" and spouting your conclusions. Have a lovely day.

Posted on: 2015/8/17 14:49
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I suppose I could agree with you, but then we would both be wrong.


This is a nice line. I'll try to remember it for the future.


Yeah, thanks bodhi. This is definitely going into my rhetoric.

Posted on: 2015/8/17 14:08
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bodhipooh wrote:
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BobNesta wrote:
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bodhipooh wrote:
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BobNesta wrote:
Quote:

bodhipooh wrote:
Quote:

BobNesta wrote:
There are actually a good number of foreign buyers, especially in the "luxury" high rises. They either use them as 2nd, 3rd, etc. family homes or homes that their kids can live in or rent them out.

Regarding inventory, especially downtown, I wonder how the short term rental companies impact the market: https://www.skycityapts.com/. I'd normally say it is negligible, but they seem to be expanding and have secured a sizable office space on Grand Street. I have also noticed an influx of tourists in the area.


I don't think short term rental companies like Sky City Apartments affect the market as much as people like to believe. For many buildings in the area, Sky City is a solution that allows them to fill a vacancy in a simple and quick manner. If someone needs to move out, or is evicted, a building can rent out the newly-empty unit to Sky City without letting the unit sit empty for a long while. They don't buy units, they rent units. They then turn around and offer those units as short term rentals. From what I have seen, they cater to a higher end clientele (corporate clients and European tourists) and they are mindful of their neighbors, always ensuring to tell their customers to be mindful of noise, etc.


I understand that they do not buy units, but rather rent them. If they rent 100s of units, that decreases the rental supply thereby potentially impacting the rental market. I have no idea how many units they rent, but I would imagine it's far larger than a dozen given the fact that they've invested in a fairly large office.


I suppose I could agree with you, but then we would both be wrong. There is no need to "imagine" a number. You can look at their site (to which you yourself linked) and see that they only have 31 units in JC. Nowhere near 100s, and definitely not enough units to actually impact the market.


Agree with me on what? I have merely raised a point of discussion, not come to a definitive conclusion. 31 units and likely growing. 31 units is approximately 1/3 of the entire Charles & Co building. How many other short places operate in JC? You can't say this has no impact on the rental market.


Not quite one third, but close. There are 99 apartments at Charles & Co. But, they don't have 31 units in that building. They 31 units in ALL OF JC. In just 07302, there are over 13,000 apartments. 31 apartments is not even half of one percent!! It is one quarter of one percent. If you think that has an impact on the market, well... you are free to believe whatever you want. It's just that the data doesn't support your speculation.


Yes, not quite one third, but close...that's why I chose to use the word approximately. Figure out how many rentals there are in dtjc being rented by these companies and then tell me what the data supports. Read my initial post and note that I said companies "like" Sky City. These companies have a apts in all luxury buildings in dtjc....Sky City's not the only game in town.


I see... You are like the resident crazy hag Yvonne. You speculate about something, about which you are then corrected. Instead of leaving it at that, you double down with more nonsense and by changing speculation from the original contention.

You make an outlandish contention and you then expect me to disprove it? How about you prove what you claim? For the record, I only know of two companies locally that do "short term rentals" as their main business model: Sky City Apartments and Furnished Quarters. Perhaps you know of 10 others that collectively hold a "massive" portfolio of 500 apartments and are somehow controlling and affecting the market. Or, maybe you are just spouting nonsense. I'm going with the latter.

Posted on: 2015/8/16 5:14
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bodhipooh wrote:
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BobNesta wrote:
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bodhipooh wrote:
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BobNesta wrote:
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bodhipooh wrote:
Quote:

BobNesta wrote:
There are actually a good number of foreign buyers, especially in the "luxury" high rises. They either use them as 2nd, 3rd, etc. family homes or homes that their kids can live in or rent them out.

Regarding inventory, especially downtown, I wonder how the short term rental companies impact the market: https://www.skycityapts.com/. I'd normally say it is negligible, but they seem to be expanding and have secured a sizable office space on Grand Street. I have also noticed an influx of tourists in the area.


I don't think short term rental companies like Sky City Apartments affect the market as much as people like to believe. For many buildings in the area, Sky City is a solution that allows them to fill a vacancy in a simple and quick manner. If someone needs to move out, or is evicted, a building can rent out the newly-empty unit to Sky City without letting the unit sit empty for a long while. They don't buy units, they rent units. They then turn around and offer those units as short term rentals. From what I have seen, they cater to a higher end clientele (corporate clients and European tourists) and they are mindful of their neighbors, always ensuring to tell their customers to be mindful of noise, etc.


I understand that they do not buy units, but rather rent them. If they rent 100s of units, that decreases the rental supply thereby potentially impacting the rental market. I have no idea how many units they rent, but I would imagine it's far larger than a dozen given the fact that they've invested in a fairly large office.


I suppose I could agree with you, but then we would both be wrong. There is no need to "imagine" a number. You can look at their site (to which you yourself linked) and see that they only have 31 units in JC. Nowhere near 100s, and definitely not enough units to actually impact the market.


Agree with me on what? I have merely raised a point of discussion, not come to a definitive conclusion. 31 units and likely growing. 31 units is approximately 1/3 of the entire Charles & Co building. How many other short places operate in JC? You can't say this has no impact on the rental market.


Not quite one third, but close. There are 99 apartments at Charles & Co. But, they don't have 31 units in that building. They 31 units in ALL OF JC. In just 07302, there are over 13,000 apartments. 31 apartments is not even half of one percent!! It is one quarter of one percent. If you think that has an impact on the market, well... you are free to believe whatever you want. It's just that the data doesn't support your speculation.


Yes, not quite one third, but close...that's why I chose to use the word approximately. Figure out how many rentals there are in dtjc being rented by these companies and then tell me what the data supports. Read my initial post and note that I said companies "like" Sky City. These companies have a apts in all luxury buildings in dtjc....Sky City's not the only game in town.

Posted on: 2015/8/16 0:32
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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bodhipooh wrote:
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BobNesta wrote:
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bodhipooh wrote:
Quote:

BobNesta wrote:
There are actually a good number of foreign buyers, especially in the "luxury" high rises. They either use them as 2nd, 3rd, etc. family homes or homes that their kids can live in or rent them out.

Regarding inventory, especially downtown, I wonder how the short term rental companies impact the market: https://www.skycityapts.com/. I'd normally say it is negligible, but they seem to be expanding and have secured a sizable office space on Grand Street. I have also noticed an influx of tourists in the area.


I don't think short term rental companies like Sky City Apartments affect the market as much as people like to believe. For many buildings in the area, Sky City is a solution that allows them to fill a vacancy in a simple and quick manner. If someone needs to move out, or is evicted, a building can rent out the newly-empty unit to Sky City without letting the unit sit empty for a long while. They don't buy units, they rent units. They then turn around and offer those units as short term rentals. From what I have seen, they cater to a higher end clientele (corporate clients and European tourists) and they are mindful of their neighbors, always ensuring to tell their customers to be mindful of noise, etc.


I understand that they do not buy units, but rather rent them. If they rent 100s of units, that decreases the rental supply thereby potentially impacting the rental market. I have no idea how many units they rent, but I would imagine it's far larger than a dozen given the fact that they've invested in a fairly large office.


I suppose I could agree with you, but then we would both be wrong. There is no need to "imagine" a number. You can look at their site (to which you yourself linked) and see that they only have 31 units in JC. Nowhere near 100s, and definitely not enough units to actually impact the market.


Agree with me on what? I have merely raised a point of discussion, not come to a definitive conclusion. 31 units and likely growing. 31 units is approximately 1/3 of the entire Charles & Co building. How many other short places operate in JC? You can't say this has no impact on the rental market.


Not quite one third, but close. There are 99 apartments at Charles & Co. But, they don't have 31 units in that building. They 31 units in ALL OF JC. In just 07302, there are over 13,000 apartments. 31 apartments is not even half of one percent!! It is one quarter of one percent. If you think that has an impact on the market, well... you are free to believe whatever you want. It's just that the data doesn't support your speculation.

Posted on: 2015/8/15 18:01
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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bodhipooh wrote:
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BobNesta wrote:
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bodhipooh wrote:
Quote:

BobNesta wrote:
There are actually a good number of foreign buyers, especially in the "luxury" high rises. They either use them as 2nd, 3rd, etc. family homes or homes that their kids can live in or rent them out.

Regarding inventory, especially downtown, I wonder how the short term rental companies impact the market: https://www.skycityapts.com/. I'd normally say it is negligible, but they seem to be expanding and have secured a sizable office space on Grand Street. I have also noticed an influx of tourists in the area.


I don't think short term rental companies like Sky City Apartments affect the market as much as people like to believe. For many buildings in the area, Sky City is a solution that allows them to fill a vacancy in a simple and quick manner. If someone needs to move out, or is evicted, a building can rent out the newly-empty unit to Sky City without letting the unit sit empty for a long while. They don't buy units, they rent units. They then turn around and offer those units as short term rentals. From what I have seen, they cater to a higher end clientele (corporate clients and European tourists) and they are mindful of their neighbors, always ensuring to tell their customers to be mindful of noise, etc.


I understand that they do not buy units, but rather rent them. If they rent 100s of units, that decreases the rental supply thereby potentially impacting the rental market. I have no idea how many units they rent, but I would imagine it's far larger than a dozen given the fact that they've invested in a fairly large office.


I suppose I could agree with you, but then we would both be wrong. There is no need to "imagine" a number. You can look at their site (to which you yourself linked) and see that they only have 31 units in JC. Nowhere near 100s, and definitely not enough units to actually impact the market.


Agree with me on what? I have merely raised a point of discussion, not come to a definitive conclusion. 31 units and likely growing. 31 units is approximately 1/3 of the entire Charles & Co building. How many other short places operate in JC? You can't say this has no impact on the rental market.

Posted on: 2015/8/15 14:43
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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I suppose I could agree with you, but then we would both be wrong.


This is a nice line. I'll try to remember it for the future.

Posted on: 2015/8/14 20:06
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