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Re: So much for all of you folks who predicted a JC/NYC RE Crash
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Just can't stay away
 
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Good Luck pushing the politicians.......
You gonna do it? The re-val is coming but neither the current mayor nor prospective incumbent will broach this subject. After the new mayor is elected/reelected the issue will be addressed. This is a far different city than the 1980's when the last reval was done. I think it will be withstood. Look at Montclair.
Posted on: 2007/6/13 16:56
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Re: So much for all of you folks who predicted a JC/NYC RE Crash
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Home away from home
 
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Posted on: 2007/6/13 16:51
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Re: So much for all of you folks who predicted a JC/NYC RE Crash
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Home away from home
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Well, sorry to interupt all the happy talk, but the econo-demographics don't support the continued bubble in JC, of even NYC for that matter.
The supply-demand equation will be coming to play big time as mortgages will continue to get more difficult/expensive to acquire (no more liar loans and free money for the economically challenged) and the bonuses on Wall St. will evaporate as we enter a deep recession...anyone remember what those were like?
Here's a quote from another board that just might be a primer for the uninformed:
Quote:The COLOSSAL number of housing units that are nearing completion on the Jersey Waterfront, presumably rental and condo will come into a market that will probably be both entering a recession (if even the recession of 2001-2002 was ever LEFT,) facing an EXTREME oversupply situation, and a nationally bursting real estate bubble. I remember in the 70's recessions where New York took over building after building and converted them to Mitchell Lama housing and I also remember the Daddy Bush recession and housing bubble burst where co-op apartments were selling at auction all over the City for $5,000 or less becasue the maintenance charges were far higher than market rents. People were finding situations of negative equity in their 80's purchases right and left. At least THEN bankruptcy was a viable option. THe last Congress has made such bankruptcies MUCH harder and more expensive to pull off unless you're an airline. (Imagine the concept of an EXPENSIVE BANKRUPTCY...an oxym oron that might be better even than MILITARY INTELLIGENCE) To address the question, why not refinance before an onerous mortgage becomes more onerous with a reset? Because the person who settled for the catastrophic conditions did so not because he was stupid (well maybe) but rather because that was the only way he could qualify for as much house as he wanted. If his financial condition has not improved or God forbid gotten WORSE, there is no way he can qualify for a good refinancing rate...he's STUCK! A person who needed a "no-money-down" mortgage 3 years ago is unlikely to be able to cough up a couple hundred G's down payment now and a pile of extra points in origination fees without a lottery win. Some poor Schmuck making 60 G's a year and no savings wants a $500,000 house. THe way this is going to work for him is for him to buy it "nothing down...low rate," and then find another schmuck (or refinancing bank) who will pay (or value at) $600,000 next year, hoping to get $700K soon! By some definitions that is a PONZI SCHEME...it ends when the last schmuck comes to his senses and says "Nuh..UHHH" 
Posted on: 2007/6/13 16:28
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Re: So much for all of you folks who predicted a JC/NYC RE Crash
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Just can't stay away
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Any business opening here will face the perspective of hiring nit the best people in the world, but certainly the most demanding and the most expensive. People who think having a job has its upside are leaving North-East in droves (I can't give you the link, but I remember Atlanta being the town of choice for new graduates).
Industry is gone, and the times when it helped the RE bubble are even further away. I think that in HK, e.g., most people are there to work, while many people in Manhattan and in some warehouses in JC are still here because they see themselves as artists and artists prefer places where rich people have their holidays. Artists have to be in a permanent vacation, to have their inner muse talk to them, and this is why, I don't know how, they pay rents as high as hotel bills in other parts of the country. I don't imagine many people from an Asian equivalent of South Carolina bragging about their holidays in HK, or about the night life and the inspiration that the HK sunset provides. One should not compare NYC with other cities, but with vacation places. What is the trend on RE across the sea from Hawaii?
Posted on: 2007/6/13 12:12
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Re: So much for all of you folks who predicted a JC/NYC RE Crash
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Home away from home
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Quote:
Global warming/flooding, terrorism and U.S. government policy are wildcards, but, all other things being equal, obviously you're right. Prices were low here because of crime and pollution, and because poverty led to weak services (e.g., schools). But it's just amazing to be able to walk from Sweet Priscilla's to the Little Lady Ferry, then choose between taking the ferry to the Statue of Liberty park and Manhattan, in half an hour. I also think that most of Jersey City has great architecture and a great street layout. It's not quite as stunning as the most beautiful parts of Brooklyn, but it's way nicer than, say, most of Astoria. Another reason that Jersey City should do well is that, if a serious petroleum shortage develops, people who now live in places like Montclair might prefer to live here.
Posted on: 2007/6/13 6:16
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Re: So much for all of you folks who predicted a JC/NYC RE Crash
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Home away from home
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Research London, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Paris....prime markets everywhere in fact...you cannot buy real estate at NJ waterfront prices so close to a major city anywhere else in the world. Areas within a short commute of Manhattan are still grossly undervalued compared to other major capital cities. Heck sell - the only reason why international buyers aren't breaking down doors in the NY area atm is US foreign policy. You want a huge increase in your RE investment - buy JC/Brooklyn/Weehawken/Bayonne and even Hoboken. Might need to wait a few years - but seriously though, this RE bubble hasn't even started.
Posted on: 2007/6/13 5:53
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Re: So much for all of you folks who predicted a JC/NYC RE Crash
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Home away from home
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"Jersey City is really coming its own as a real estate market. Probably prices would be going up 20 percent a year if the overall market were doing better. So, it seems as if 3% growth really does represent a mild slump here, not any kind of exuberance."
Yeah, too bad the party on Wall St. is about to end, isn't it?  Greenspan not worried Chinese will dump Treasuries - There is little reason to fear a wholesale pullout by China out of U.S. government bonds, Greenspan said the reason such a withdrawal was unlikely was that China would not have anyone to sell the securities to...Greenspan reinforced the nervousness, saying that a global liquidity boom which he traced back to the end of the Cold War would not go on forever. "Enjoy it while it lasts," he told the audience The maestro of the bubble has spoken, and this time he's not lying! Say Buh-Bye to the JC RE Bubble... Can you say 14% 30 year mortgage rates? I knew you could 
Posted on: 2007/6/13 4:28
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Re: So much for all of you folks who predicted a JC/NYC RE Crash
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Home away from home
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Quote:
Some complications: - Jersey City is really coming its own as a real estate market. Probably prices would be going up 20 percent a year if the overall market were doing better. So, it seems as if 3% growth really does represent a mild slump here, not any kind of exuberance. - I'm not sure whether it's easy to do an apples-to-apples comparison here, given all of the luxury condo construction here. If you adjust for the quality of the housing stock, maybe the average, quality-adjusted price per square foot has gone down (or gone up more than 3.%), even if the unadjusted price per unit has gone up 3.2%.
Posted on: 2007/6/13 4:00
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Re: So much for all of you folks who predicted a JC/NYC RE Crash
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Home away from home
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Treasury Yields Rise to Highest in Five Years on Growth Concern
A bad week for Bear Stearns "Now the Wall Street Journal reports that those pesky subprime mortgages (again) have done damage," Housing slump into '08 likely, study finds - "The implosion of the subprime mortgage market is likely to prolong the national housing slump," Anyone knows what this means for the real estate/mortgage situation for these silly sellers scrambling to exit the market right now? Anyone wanna buy a clue?
Posted on: 2007/6/12 19:36
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Re: So much for all of you folks who predicted a JC/NYC RE Crash
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Home away from home
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North Jersey RE Crash update:
Hoboken 07030 YTD -7.0% Jersey City 07310 YTD +3.2% Hmmm, seems the irrational exhuberance is still increasing in JC Gonna be a LONG way to slide back to 2001 prices to return to mean... P.S. Ever notice that housing in this area NEVER has the property taxes assessed at current value, no less the actual mortgage held for the location? Me thinks that once the right group of politicians get pushed into a corner that lil' mistake will be corrected 
Posted on: 2007/6/12 19:21
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Re: So much for all of you folks who predicted a JC/NYC RE Crash
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Home away from home
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yep, you sure can stretch out in those buses - they too have a long way to go before they are over-crowded!
Posted on: 2007/6/10 11:44
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My humor is for the silent blue collar majority - If my posts offend, slander or you deem inappropriate and seek deletion, contact the webmaster for jurisdiction.
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Re: So much for all of you folks who predicted a JC/NYC RE Crash
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Home away from home
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The PATH is not the only option into NYC, while it is the fastest and most convenient there are also busses that go into NYC from here.
Posted on: 2007/6/10 11:30
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Re: So much for all of you folks who predicted a JC/NYC RE Crash
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Home away from home
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I am curious to find out what the state of the already crowded PATH system will be like in the coming years. It's a fact that many NYC workers are movig to JC. If we have hundreds if not thousands of new residents coming here to live but work in NYC how will that effect the real estate market down the road? Once the NYC workers who buy here start complaining about how horrible the lines are in a couple years then who knows what the outcome will really be. I know they have more PATH trains figured in but will it be enough?
Posted on: 2007/6/10 1:56
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Re: So much for all of you folks who predicted a JC/NYC RE Crash
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Newbie
 
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Its unlikely that the JC R/E market will crash. Unless some unpredictable event / calmity occurs (i.e., gas @ $9/ gallon)
But it is and will continue to be saturated with housing. This will and has created competition and put downward pressure on prices. If fully saturated, a market flooded with housing will cut prices or offer incentives like \"Seller pays closing costs\", \"No maintenance charges for 1st year\", \"free parking space\", etc.) Asking prices for new luxury 2 BRs are in high $300k range in HOBOKEN. In the summer of \'05, a fixed up (Home Depot\'ized) Van V. Park 2BRs range was $450 to $525K. I'm not saying that a 2BR sold for $525K but am saying there\'s definitely been a drop in Asking prices since 2005. Anyway your post and article are outdated. Does anyone know the current Sale price for 2BR (at closing)? Anyway, once JC gets so damn crowded, ain't it gonna kill the thing we love about it - the same small neighborhood look & feel?
Posted on: 2007/6/9 19:37
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Re: So much for all of you folks who predicted a JC/NYC RE Crash
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Quite a regular
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Quote:
Agreed, as an owner, judging by my building in downtown, the market is at the same level as last year at this time. That's actually good performance compared to the overall market, so let's hope when things turn around we will all be golden.
Posted on: 2007/6/9 1:20
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Re: So much for all of you folks who predicted a JC/NYC RE Crash
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Home away from home
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The fact that unemployment has decreased over the last five years and is now 4.5% while inflation is 2.3% means a very good economy even if one owns no stocks. Jimmy Carter popularized the "misery index" - the sum of annual inflation and unemployment - as a real world measure of the economy. At the end of the Carter administration unemployment was 7.7% and inflation was 12%. By Carter's own metric a misery index of 19.7 under his stewardship vs. 6.8 currently.
The local economy is booming due to financial services; even for those who aren't employed in that business. So there you have it from a better informed person. Quote:
Posted on: 2007/6/9 1:16
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Re: So much for all of you folks who predicted a JC/NYC RE Crash
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Newbie
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Wow. Sounds like its still all-about-the-money and real estate not about the community, quality of life or arts or the people who live there.
Posted on: 2007/6/8 23:22
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Re: So much for all of you folks who predicted a JC/NYC RE Crash
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Quite a regular
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I think it would be interesting if everyone prefaced their comment on this thread with either 'Renter' or "Owner'.
Posted on: 2007/6/1 11:56
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Re: So much for all of you folks who predicted a JC/NYC RE Crash
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Newbie
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"BOOMING economy" is definately an overstatement.
I agree that typically the economy is heading to or in a much more obvious recession when the real estate market is suffering. However, considering ALL factors our country is not too far off. Wait till we see the unemployment, inflation, interest rate numbers (just to name a few) once all/majority of our troops return home & another president is in office. I believe it will all get worse before it gets any better. The stock market is doing well for many reasons but one of which is largely based off the real estate downtown. You have all these large investors that have to put their money some where so they turn to real estate alternatives (stocks, bonds, money markets, business ventures, etc). just my thoughts
Posted on: 2007/6/1 11:09
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Re: So much for all of you folks who predicted a JC/NYC RE Crash
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Home away from home
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Quote:
Exactly. What's booming is the transfer of wealth to the wealthy. Everyone else is trying to keep their heads above water.
Posted on: 2007/6/1 5:24
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Re: So much for all of you folks who predicted a JC/NYC RE Crash
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Home away from home
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Is our economy really booming though? Other than the stock market, I don't see much evidence that it is, but I defer to better informed people on this matter.
Posted on: 2007/6/1 4:05
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Re: So much for all of you folks who predicted a JC/NYC RE Crash
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Home away from home
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Well, the Clinton administration was constrained by a Republican Congress after its first 2 years. It was also in those first 2 years that they attempted to socialize medicine, one of the largest businesses in the U.S. Now the Democrats own the Congress again and who is their front-runner?
I think the scary thing is that normally a real estate downturn is driven by a recession yet we already have a down market for residential real estate in a booming economy. If we get a recession, or even a financial services downturn, I think the residential real estate market could get very ugly fast. Quote:
Posted on: 2007/6/1 3:56
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Re: So much for all of you folks who predicted a JC/NYC RE Crash
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Home away from home
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Quote:
I'm not sure whether Kitchen Cafe has sunk lower or come back up, but, anyhow, I think one major component of keeping downtown Jersey City going is making sure that the landlords understand how important it is to have a decent mix of shops and restaurants in the ground floor spaces. Yes, Jersey City needs Olive Garden wannabees like Bertucci's, but it also needs to have casual chic cafes like Kitchen Cafe, good, casual Chinese takeout, decent Indian takeout (the last time I was at Cafe Spice, my meal really wasn't as good as a $2 Indian MREs), a couple of good independent coffee places that are open IN THE EVENING as well as during the day, a place where you can buy basic clothes and gifts in an emergency, etc. I work for a company that probably could have saved some money (and shortened my commute) by moving to Jersey City, but it stayed at its current location somewhere else mainly because my bosses like the quality of life at the current location. LeFrak and the other Newport landlords at least seem to do a good job of getting retail and restaurant tenants into their buildings, but the landlords around Exchange Place are terrible about that sort of thing. They haven't done anything about getting a daycare center in, or a clothing store, or a hardware store, or even a dollar store. Doctors Pharmacy is great, but Exchange Place/Paulus Hook really needs some other store that's open past 5 p.m.
Posted on: 2007/6/1 2:32
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Re: So much for all of you folks who predicted a JC/NYC RE Crash
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Newbie
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ergophobia4all I agree with you. In a year or 2 the economy is in for a slowdown, there is a lot of new housing, and the prices are already to high. People still need to get used to the fact that money can be lost in real estate.
Posted on: 2007/6/1 0:37
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Re: So much for all of you folks who predicted a JC/NYC RE Crash
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Home away from home
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I'm doing repair work to buildings only 5-6 years old - A good number of these building will require MAJOR - EXPENSIVE structural work before their mortgage will be paid for.
But I have seen a few that were built to last a life time, or until the BIG flood happens!
Posted on: 2007/6/1 0:12
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My humor is for the silent blue collar majority - If my posts offend, slander or you deem inappropriate and seek deletion, contact the webmaster for jurisdiction.
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Re: So much for all of you folks who predicted a JC/NYC RE Crash
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Newbie
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2007/5/31 19:51 Last Login : 2008/10/3 22:15 From JC - P-Hook
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JC will be fine if not stronger in the long run, but I foresee major problems in the immediate future. they are building new construction left and right as if population is about to double or something. once these current projects are complete, people have 6-12 months to default on a mortgage, and after the x-mas / tax season the real estate market will be an all new animal. You will see deals left and right.
well at least that is my thooughts
Posted on: 2007/5/31 22:03
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Re: So much for all of you folks who predicted a JC/NYC RE Crash
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Just can't stay away
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[quote]
MrWolf wrote: I'll tell you what will happen, Manhattan will get more expensive (See London), and more and more people will want to live there (international buyers fueling sales). The outer boroughs will continue to reap the spillover effects (JC included), further growing as they continue to build out. Unfortunately, I don't share your optimistic view for JC. The PATH is considered very vulnerable to terrorist attack. Virtually nothing has been done to improve the situation - not even secondary exits at the Manhattan stations. Lengthy disruption of service (years) coupled with NYC's rezoning of areas of Brooklyn and Queens to accommodate residential and business growth will leave JC in the dust. As leases run out at Exchange Place and Newport many will not be renewed. Ruinous flooding from Hurricane Jerrimiah will make front page across the country. Discovery that JCMUA let city flood because it didn't want to go over its pumping budget will blacken city's reputation. Just a prediction, I'm no prophet.
Posted on: 2007/5/29 15:27
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Re: So much for all of you folks who predicted a JC/NYC RE Crash
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Just can't stay away
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I bet that rent in Rome is less than in Jersey City. Actually, rent there for similar locations is almost the same as in my ex-Communist home town. Sic transit gloria mundi.
Posted on: 2007/5/28 22:28
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Re: So much for all of you folks who predicted a JC/NYC RE Crash
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Just can't stay away
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"There is only one NYC in the world". There used to be only one Rome, Paris, London.... There is only one Istanbul, or Karachi when we talk about crowding, and only one Dubai, orTokyo, when we talk about prices.
Yes, there is only one NYC, the one near which my inflated ego lives, and it is also a great place for the sitcoms I watch. So I bet, ten years from now, we will still consider ourselves the VIPs of this planet.
Posted on: 2007/5/28 21:38
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Re: So much for all of you folks who predicted a JC/NYC RE Crash
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Just can't stay away
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Quote:
I'll tell you what will happen, Manhattan will get more expensive (See London), and more and more people will want to live there (international buyers fueling sales). The outer boroughs will continue to reap the spillover effects (JC included), further growing as they continue to build out. There is only one NYC in the world and a limited amount of real estate surrounding this financial/cultural center of the world. Ten years from now, it will be nuts around here (e.g. density, cost, etc.).
Posted on: 2007/5/28 21:21
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