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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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Home away from home
 
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2012/1/11 18:21 Last Login : 2019/12/26 15:30 From GV Bayside Park
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I work on 60th and 3rd ave a few times a week and it lots of abandoned store fronts up there. NYC is not what is use to be.
Posted on: 2015/7/22 19:31
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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Home away from home
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Exactly. Most of the restaurant openings in Manhattan these days are just too expensive to frequent. Cosme is awesome, great wine list, amazingly balanced, assertive Mexican flavors that you just don't see elsewhere. It also costs $300 for dinner for two. I don't have to live next to it to go once every six months. The stuff opening in Brooklyn is both more aggressive/risky and way cheaper. Manhattan has bars and clubs closing right and left to make way for new Chase Banks and Starbucks. Brooklyn is getting more and more vibrant... and I'm starting to see some of that same stuff leak over here. Dale Talde was definitely signaling something by opening his stuff in DTJC, here's hoping that the trend continues.
Posted on: 2015/7/22 17:06
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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Quite a regular
 
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2014/12/12 13:39 Last Login : 2015/11/13 16:06 From Jersey City
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I think a big driver of the urban appeal is alternative school options . Jersey City offerers a lot of options of private and charter. Driving and owning a car has become a huge , expensive pain in the ass. I also know a number of folks who were lucky enough to buy in Manhattan years ago and are now selling and moving to BK or JC. which is why you hear of so many cash deals . On top of that, millennials just don't do the yard thing.
Posted on: 2015/7/22 16:23
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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Just can't stay away
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Society has changed. People want to live in urban environments, not move to the suburbs. People are also living lives that would be less conventional 15-20 years ago. This is a large part of the driving force of increased real estate prices in urban areas, combined with foreign money, increased international mobility and travel, and other factors. Many areas of Brooklyn and JC (perhaps only DTJC at the present moment) offer an amazing ray of amenities and lifestyle options that are not available in the suburbs and were not available in these areas 5, 10, 15, 20 years ago.
Given what has occurred in Brooklyn, why would it be shocking that someone would choose it over Manhattan today? Restaurants, nightlife, parks, culture, etc. of an international level. Barring an economic/societal calamity, the wave/spread will continue. Even so, the wave/spread has already survived several economic/societal calamities (9/11, recession, Sandy) with little to no long term impact.
Posted on: 2015/7/22 15:06
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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Home away from home
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Prime Brooklyn real estate has been on fire for well over a decade.
Things change, markets change, neighborhoods change. $2 million for a 25ft wide impeccable brownstone in dtjc sounds like a lot and it is, but I challenge you to find the same anywhere with the same proximity to Manhattan and similar amenities. jc has to catch up with other areas with similar amenities and proximity to Manhattan. I'd sell a $1 million dollar house in any suburb in nj to pick up a four story row house in downtown jersey city that needs a total gut renovation 10 times over if I could, even at these prices. the growth downtown is nowhere near over.
Posted on: 2015/7/22 14:30
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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Home away from home
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I'd prefer to live someplace else for the price <> bubble.
Posted on: 2015/7/22 14:29
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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Home away from home
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I'm pretty sure lots of people did. Brooklyn Heights and Prospect Park were certainly on the upswing in 2005; I'm pretty sure that even DUMBO was well on the way to gentrification by then. E.g. here's a random town house for sale in Park Slope. If you look at the history, it sold for $1m in 2002: http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/45- ... n-NY-11217/30581953_zpid/ It also seems, as someone who admittedly is not part of the industry, that the banks and mortgage issuers are still maintaining very strict standards. They aren't going to loan to people who they don't think can make the mortgage paments, and I'm pretty sure they've improved their risk models since the last crash. IMO this is a critical bulwark against a bubble. We should also note that after the crash, new home construction rates fell, and were well below normal rates for several years. This has contributed to low inventories in many areas. By the way, I'm mildly amused that you slag the NYT's real estate section, and then assume that what they say is absolutely true. ;) I'm not quite convinced that people who are getting priced out of Brooklyn are moving to Manhattan. Though I have heard that people who are getting priced out of Jersey City are looking at Hoboken.... o_O
Posted on: 2015/7/22 14:17
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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Home away from home
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You make valid points all around, but the fact remains that just over a decade ago, and certainly within two decades ago, NO ONE would have spent a million dollars for anything in BK. BK was for the rejects, the misfits, the losers, the artists and the downtrodden. The BK hype is somewhat baffling in how it is a self-prepetuating machine with no limits in sight. You know things are "upside down" when living in BK is more expensive than Manhattan and people are being forced OUT OF BK into Manhattan. The NYT
Posted on: 2015/7/22 12:44
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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Home away from home
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I don't know if there is a bubble in Brooklyn, but this listing isn't evidence of it.
You missed the most salient points of the listing: "The house is steps from Prospect Park", is approved for tear down to build a brand new house in its place, and is near a mansion once owned by Jennifer Connelly. This part of Brooklyn is highly desirable. The location of the land and ability to design and build a custom home in Prospect Park is very appealing to quite a few with the means. Last, just like there are people who will never live in a city, there are many folks for whom living in the suburbs is just not an option, not yesterday, not today, not tomorrow no matter how much sense it may make to others. If $2 million is spent to buy the land and build a brand new custom designed home, that doesn't sound out of line for a place that is steps away from Prospect Park in Windsor Terrace.
Posted on: 2015/7/22 11:24
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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Home away from home
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This is a sign of a bubble in Brokelyn:
http://nypost.com/2015/07/20/would-yo ... llion-for-this-mini-home/ Who in their right mind would pay $1.25 million to live on a block full of vinyl siding -clad multifamily buildings? There are plenty of suburbs with walkable downtowns, short commutes to the city, and good schools (Montclair, Westfield, etc) where $1.25 million can buy either a very large newer condo or a decent single family home with a backyard. I think people have become blind to this, immersed in all the hype and speculation about just how high prices in the immediate Manhattan metro will go. This is what we call irrational exuberance folks.
Posted on: 2015/7/22 4:23
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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Home away from home
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B-L is like the pitcher plant of neighborhoods. For decades people keep landing on it expecting something sweet, but they get dragged in and digested.
Posted on: 2015/7/22 0:37
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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Home away from home
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The bubble is real
 Franklyn D. Ore of Jersey City Redevelopment Agency speaks to realtors on bus buring tour of abandoned properties in Bergen-Lafayette
Posted on: 2015/7/21 19:16
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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Home away from home
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I saw that listing too, the asking price is just wishful thinking. Noone is going to pay close to 1.2m for a low rise building with minimal amenity and no view. I can ask 2mil for my 1br, doesnt mean it will be sold. Look at the monmouth tax record site with filter on sold = last 90 days, that's the real market. (there is 1-2 month delay between closing and it showing up on that website usually, but still give you the most accurate picture of price)
Posted on: 2015/7/21 17:35
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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Home away from home
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This is evidence of a bubble in Manhattan. I think we need some more compelling examples of the bubble in DTJC than $800.00/s.f.
http://ny.curbed.com/archives/2015/07 ... window_asks_950k.php#more
Posted on: 2015/7/21 17:21
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Home away from home
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2005/12/18 2:57 Last Login : 2017/9/14 20:15 From Crystal Point
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$800 sq ft wow. I looked at that property back in 13 and did not pursue although the outdoor spaces were magnificent (terrace and the amazing rooftop). The elevator was broken when I visited, the hallways were very narrow, and building felt cheap compared to the other condos I visited. I also have a fullsize car and the indoor parking was a mess. There were no space markings and it was very small. If I remember correctly, for this particular unit you had to use an external communal staircase to access the rooftop. The other units had direct access.
Posted on: 2015/7/21 15:37
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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Home away from home
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All these discussions are a little funny because (I'm going out on a limb here) most people talking here aren't traders. There's a massive difference between a price correction, which absolutely is going on as we speak in DTJC, and a bubble.
The fact is that DTJC has been systematically underpriced compared to Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Hoboken for a few years now. When spreads like that start to tighten, they can tighten very quickly, giving the impression that there is irrational behavior going on in the market, when, in reality, the behavior is entirely rational. Can I, or anyone, say that ONLY the former is happening, and not the latter? Of course not. Limited supply can very well cause asset bubbles, and we could be both bubbling AND correcting. But the question you have to ask yourself is whether it makes sense for luxury buildings in DTJC to trade at $500/sqft when walkups in Crown Heights are trading at $1000/sqft.
Posted on: 2015/7/21 15:07
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Not too shy to talk
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http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/99- ... y-NJ-07302/72245753_zpid/
Sold less than 2 years ago at $777k, asking now $1.175M.
Posted on: 2015/7/21 14:55
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Quite a regular
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2014/12/12 13:39 Last Login : 2015/11/13 16:06 From Jersey City
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Was out in the DTJC area last night Carrino , Talde , Porta etc. It was Monday and the area was rocking . Was with a couple of long time JC realestate developers. Looks pretty healthy to me and them. I would check the NO box on the bubble question.
Posted on: 2015/7/21 14:32
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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Home away from home
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I assume that he's talking about The Gannon, which has some of the worst layouts I've ever seen, and is still something like 50% under contract at very high per-sf values.
Posted on: 2015/7/21 14:28
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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Home away from home
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2014/6/9 22:10 Last Login : 2017/6/16 11:22 From Jersey City, NJ
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You can't compare Weehawken to DTJC. They're completely different markets. And which DTJC properties are you referencing?
Posted on: 2015/7/21 3:41
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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Home away from home
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Bubble is already bursting, but you won't read about it for another 12-18 months when brokers want to use 'bargain' prices to lure buyers back in.
Units in new buildings just aren't selling - just go to those few new buildings downtown and ask how many units have sold and you'll see what I mean. And gold coast buildings that have been on the market for awhile - just saw an ad for in Weehawken - are now slashing prices and offering incentives. Prices peaked over the winter between 2014 & 2015. Sales are falling off a cliff and prices are now following - prices were unaffordable for anyone who doesn't earn several hundred thousand a year, and those folks would all rather rent in brooklyn or manhattan than buy in JC. Asking prices peaked above $700/sf, now they're down to around $600/sf, even with the low supply. Look for those to fall further to around $500/sf as investors freak out and want to cash out before they lose an opportunity to make a profit. As for the Crystal Pointe sale, nothing shows nervousness like a need to advertise sales. This is looking like 2006-2007 all over again. Anyone remember that fool who paid a $2.3 mil for the penthouse in the Beacon back then? Talk about bad bets! http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/11/rea ... tions%2FNew%20Jersey&_r=0 Quote from Feb 2007 article: "Last week, a two-story penthouse at the Beacon, the former Jersey City Medical Center complex that is being converted to condominiums, set a record for a high-rise apartment in Jersey City when a purchase contract was signed for $2.3 million. [...[ Most Liberty Terrace units were sold by September, though, said Ms. Urgo ? and she sees the market for expensive condos with riverfront views as having picked up significantly since then." We are in a massive asset bubble right now, driven by a super-long period of record-low interest rates. People couldn't get a halfway decent return putting money into savings accounts or bonds, so they invested in stocks, startups, & multifamily properties, and individual condos and townhomes.
Posted on: 2015/7/21 3:06
Edited by jcwalkingman on 2015/7/21 3:22:34
Edited by jcwalkingman on 2015/7/21 3:24:08 Edited by jcwalkingman on 2015/7/21 3:24:44 Edited by jcwalkingman on 2015/7/21 3:27:30 Edited by jcwalkingman on 2015/7/21 3:31:25 Edited by jcwalkingman on 2015/7/21 3:35:04 |
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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Home away from home
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But it doesn't have the view! Seriously, you can look at manhattan condo prices where you can buy a 30 floor building at those millions. There's a "separation from reality" going on. But these properties prices will be far more volatile, a $30m asking can be $15m tomorrow, it was all 'wishful equity" anyway. Ask for the moon, and maybe some dumb Russian oligarch will pay it. We live in the kiddie pool version.
Posted on: 2015/7/21 3:02
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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Home away from home
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So, for the same amount referenced in the article ($1.9mil for a 1371 sq ft unit), one could have brought this nice brownstone at 244 Montgomery Street - the WHOLE BUILDING!!!
So, for all your real estate gurus out there, would you say that 244 Montgomery street is "fairly" priced or not? Quote:
Posted on: 2015/7/21 0:51
Edited by SRhia on 2015/7/21 1:18:34
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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Home away from home
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bubble or not, there is just no inventory. price level is 30-40% above the height of the 06-07 prices before the meltdown, across the board.
I sold a unit in may, had guys coming in with all cash offers at my asking price or higher. And price went up another 10% since then. Don't think this is normal, but at the same time i am not sure if it's a true bubble like we had in 07 where many buyers were leveraged up with those sham loans they cannot afford. Current situation the buyers do have money, job market is good around here, there is no inventory in jc, and prices across ny metro is high. So who the hell knows, prices could go up another 20-30%, or go down the same once rates start to go up. I wouldn't buy at the current level as an investment or short term place to live, but if you plan to stay for 10+ years in the property as primary, might still worth the gamble. Also another interesting fact, if you look at the more ghetto part of jersey city, for example where the beacon is located. The prices barely moved from the lows of the meltdown, where as waterfront had a near 100% appreciation. It just goes to show you the importance of location. Still remember all the owners angry at the people who suggested not to invest in the beacon at the time due to the location few years back. Turns out to be good advise.
Posted on: 2015/7/21 0:05
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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Home away from home
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The deal broker lives in my building. It's still cheaper to buy DTJC waterfront realty than across the river, which is trading for 2X this price point in most cases. Until we can establish that Manhattan is in a bubble, it's hard to logically say that DTJC is in a bubble. There's not a lot of debt pumping up prices now. It's a lot of cash deals and foreign money.
Posted on: 2015/7/20 23:31
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Home away from home
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Posted on: 2015/7/20 23:22
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Home away from home
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And some of them will, but when said condo conversions happen, the buyers will have to price in the lower construction quality, the expensive through-wall electric heat/ac, the cheaper insulation, etc. Remember, DTJC still trades at or under $800/sqft, while similarly convenient areas of Brooklyn are frequently well above $1000/sqft. Convergence is far from guaranteed, of course, but there's a clear and significant gap that still exists.
Posted on: 2015/7/13 14:49
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Just can't stay away
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Rentals could convert to condos. Don't miss the boat, buy now, whatever it costs!!!!
Posted on: 2015/7/13 14:36
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Newbie
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Agree - you will need a regional decline (or national collapse) before prices will get soft in JC.
Bring on the rentals: It's only going to benefit owners that more and more renters are coming here. The developers will continue to do the hard work of advertising the many advantages of JC to get people here, the politicians will do the hard work of recruiting employers and giving them incentives to create more jobs here, and the homeowner/investor will have a steady supply of buyers who realize that (a) owning beats renting and (b) JC is still a relative bargain compared to other options. Not all of the renters will be able to buy, and many of them will not want to stay here, but enough of them will, and that will keep demand ahead of supply for condos and the more coveted single-family townhouses.
Posted on: 2015/7/13 14:08
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Home away from home
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Yes, and no. With the possible exception of Brooklyn, no one says "I want to move to [insert borough]". Instead, they normally say "I want to move (or I moved) to [insert neighborhood]". Real estate being about "location, location, location" lends itself to this approach where imaginary border lines make all the difference in the world. Very few people even know that there's more to JC than the area downtown. Chances are that if you tell someone in NYC that you live in Bergen Lafayette or Greenville you will get a blank stare. They wouldn't even know about the various neighborhoods that comprise DTJC! When most outsiders think of the JC RE market, they are thinking DTJC. That's just the way that it is. As for JC being the "most affordable option in the metro area", how/where do you draw the boundaries of the area "that is close to Manhattan"? And, have you actually looked at the market lately? DTJC is rapidly rising in prices and it is on par with some nice areas of BK. Queens is certainly cheaper than JC, even the popular areas right across the river from Manhattan, such as LIC and Astoria.
Posted on: 2015/7/13 13:53
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