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Re: New Equalized Valuations Out, JC at $28.4 billion
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JCGuys wrote:
I think we're above 900 now. So how many do we need?


I'm pretty sure there's no number at which the response to a quality of life complaint won't be "we're undermanned". I think they're all just exhausted from raking in all that overtime at construction sites. Those cops making $100k moonlighting had to be putting in 1000 hrs at that. Shouldn't our cops be fresh and alert? We're paying them enough.

Posted on: 10/7 0:19
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Re: New Equalized Valuations Out, JC at $28.4 billion
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Yvonne wrote:
Fulop inherited the expiration of tax abatements during his first term which pushed up the ratable base and actually hid the spending he was doing.


I hate to admit, but I think there is some truth in this - we should have seen greater tax rate cuts with the expiring abatements but instead the tax rate has remained unchanged as spending has increased.

Most of the additional spending has been for hiring new police officers.


If you check the council agenda for the past 4 years, there was a new job title on nearly every agenda. In addition to cops the city were hiring people.

Posted on: 10/6 22:48
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Re: New Equalized Valuations Out, JC at $28.4 billion
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JCGuys wrote:


I was thinking the same thing.

http://www.governing.com/gov-data/saf ... for-city-departments.html

I was looking at this link earlier and Jersey City, in 2015, already has one of the highest number of uniformed officers per capita in the entire country! There has been many officers added since then. Yes, much more than those that have retired.



Are they all in radio cars? I have never seen so much as a foot patrol in years. Back in Schundler days we had cops on bikes for a while (this was in response to some serious gang activity in the Heights).


Posted on: 10/6 17:29
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Re: New Equalized Valuations Out, JC at $28.4 billion
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brewster wrote:
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JCGuys wrote:
Most of the additional spending has been for hiring new police officers.


OT, but how many cops would we have to have before they start giving traffic tickets again and reign in the wild west out there?


I was thinking the same thing.

http://www.governing.com/gov-data/saf ... for-city-departments.html

I was looking at this link earlier and Jersey City, in 2015, already has one of the highest number of uniformed officers per capita in the entire country! There has been many officers added since then. Yes, much more than those that have retired.

Police Department / Officers per 10K Population / Total Police Employees per 10K Population / Officer Count / Total Police Employee Count

Washington, DC 56.9 66.7 3,826 4,487
Wilmington, Delaware 43.4 52.0 313 375
Baltimore, Maryland 42.6 47.6 2,646 2,960
New York, New York 41.4 58.9 35,395 50,366
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 40.9 46.1 6,413 7,229
Birmingham, Alabama 39.5 51.9 838 1,102
St. Louis, Missouri 38.8 55.4 1,230 1,757
Atlanta, Georgia 38.3 47.7 1,781 2,218
Newark, New Jersey 36.8 42.8 1,033 1,203
Daytona Beach, Florida 34.8 41.6 221 264
Rochester, New York 34.0 39.7 713 834
Albany, New York 33.9 43.8 335 433
East Orange, New Jersey 33.6 41.7 219 272
Detroit, Michigan 33.5 36.2 2,255 2,436
Hartford, Connecticut 33.2 36.8 413 458
Richmond, Virginia 33.2 40.1 732 885
Charleston, South Carolina 33.1 40.2 439 533
White Plains, New York 32.8 34.6 191 202
Coral Gables, Florida 32.7 43.8 171 229
New Haven, Connecticut 32.6 36.8 425 480
Charleston, West Virginia 32.5 37.3 163 187
Boston, Massachusetts 32.2 40.4 2,139 2,689
Jackson, Tennessee 31.7 38.3 214 258
Milwaukee, Wisconsin 31.4 41.9 1,886 2,518
Memphis, Tennessee 31.0 36.3 2,040 2,389
Yonkers, New York 30.7 34.8 620 702
Jersey City, New Jersey 30.7 35.3 814 936


I think we're above 900 now. So how many do we need?

Posted on: 10/6 17:16
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Re: New Equalized Valuations Out, JC at $28.4 billion
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JCGuys wrote:
Most of the additional spending has been for hiring new police officers.


OT, but how many cops would we have to have before they start giving traffic tickets again and reign in the wild west out there?

Posted on: 10/6 16:39
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Re: New Equalized Valuations Out, JC at $28.4 billion
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JCGuys wrote:
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Yvonne wrote:
Fulop inherited the expiration of tax abatements during his first term which pushed up the ratable base and actually hid the spending he was doing.


I hate to admit, but I think there is some truth in this - we should have seen greater tax rate cuts with the expiring abatements but instead the tax rate has remained unchanged as spending has increased.

Most of the additional spending has been for hiring new police officers.


Healy's last budge was $485 million, the budget adopted this year is $580 million, an increase of $95 million.

Posted on: 10/6 16:20
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Re: New Equalized Valuations Out, JC at $28.4 billion
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Yvonne wrote:
Fulop inherited the expiration of tax abatements during his first term which pushed up the ratable base and actually hid the spending he was doing.


I hate to admit, but I think there is some truth in this - we should have seen greater tax rate cuts with the expiring abatements but instead the tax rate has remained unchanged as spending has increased.

Most of the additional spending has been for hiring new police officers.

Posted on: 10/6 15:33
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Re: New Equalized Valuations Out, JC at $28.4 billion
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stateaidguy wrote:
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Ralph_Abutts wrote:
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stateaidguy wrote:

I am posting this here because I've seen so much speculation on what the new tax rate will be after the reval. (which doesn't actually change the tax rate).



Tax Bill = Assessed Value * Tax Rate

Since the Total Assessed Value of the City increased according to your report, then the Tax Rate willdecrease.

That is assuming total appropriations/spending, average tax bill, etc. remains the same or if you prefer fancy words, ceteris paribus.


This is correct.

My statement that JC's tax rate will drop assumes that the tax levy will stay the same or increase slightly. Since JC's tax levy won't increase by the 10% growth in EV, it's a very safe assumption to make.

Jersey City's official, aggregate assessed value also increased, from $6,075,860,248 to $6,214,706,588.

I assume that increase is from new unPILOTed development, the expiration of old PILOTs, and some additions & improvements here and there.

Knowing that the official, assessed value increased by $128 million and knowing that JC's "equalization ratio" is .2188 allows one to estimate that the new ratables increased by $634 million in Equalized Valuation and that the rest of JC's $2.7 increase in EV came from appreciation.

Yes, 99 Hudson will have a big impact. All of Hudson County is going to feel that.

I don't like Steve Fulop for other reasons, but he should get credit for not PILOTing 99 Hudson.


No, stateaidguy, the increase of the ratable base happened because many of the tax abatements from the 1990s have expired. The ratable base was between $5.4 to $5.7 during Healy's term. Fulop inherited the expiration of tax abatements during his first term which pushed up the ratable base and actually hid the spending he was doing.

Posted on: 10/6 15:20
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Re: New Equalized Valuations Out, JC at $28.4 billion
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bodhipooh wrote:
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JCGuys wrote:
I've been fascinated by the 99 Hudson development. It's being built with NO TAX ABATEMENT and will contain 781 luxury condos. Average sales price may be well excess of $750,000.

That's $585,750,000 in new ratables. It will lead to a big drop in the property tax rate.


Big drop? 586 MM is ~2% of the total new valuation. A drop of 2% in a 30K tax bill is only $600, which is $50 / month. I am not sure I would call that a "big drop".


Since for most NJ towns a drop in property taxes is unimaginable and a 2% increase is the floor, I think -2% is a "big drop" too.


Posted on: 10/6 14:19
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Re: New Equalized Valuations Out, JC at $28.4 billion
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bodhipooh wrote:
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JCGuys wrote:
I've been fascinated by the 99 Hudson development. It's being built with NO TAX ABATEMENT and will contain 781 luxury condos. Average sales price may be well excess of $750,000.

That's $585,750,000 in new ratables. It will lead to a big drop in the property tax rate.


Big drop? 586 MM is ~2% of the total new valuation. A drop of 2% in a 30K tax bill is only $600, which is $50 / month. I am not sure I would call that a "big drop".


A 2 percent drop as a result of a single building, I definitely would.

Posted on: 10/6 14:05
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Re: New Equalized Valuations Out, JC at $28.4 billion
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JCGuys wrote:
I've been fascinated by the 99 Hudson development. It's being built with NO TAX ABATEMENT and will contain 781 luxury condos. Average sales price may be well excess of $750,000.

That's $585,750,000 in new ratables. It will lead to a big drop in the property tax rate.


Big drop? 586 MM is ~2% of the total new valuation. A drop of 2% in a 30K tax bill is only $600, which is $50 / month. I am not sure I would call that a "big drop".

Posted on: 10/6 13:44
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Re: New Equalized Valuations Out, JC at $28.4 billion
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Ralph_Abutts wrote:
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stateaidguy wrote:

I am posting this here because I've seen so much speculation on what the new tax rate will be after the reval. (which doesn't actually change the tax rate).



Tax Bill = Assessed Value * Tax Rate

Since the Total Assessed Value of the City increased according to your report, then the Tax Rate willdecrease.

That is assuming total appropriations/spending, average tax bill, etc. remains the same or if you prefer fancy words, ceteris paribus.


This is correct.

My statement that JC's tax rate will drop assumes that the tax levy will stay the same or increase slightly. Since JC's tax levy won't increase by the 10% growth in EV, it's a very safe assumption to make.

Jersey City's official, aggregate assessed value also increased, from $6,075,860,248 to $6,214,706,588.

I assume that increase is from new unPILOTed development, the expiration of old PILOTs, and some additions & improvements here and there.

Knowing that the official, assessed value increased by $128 million and knowing that JC's "equalization ratio" is .2188 allows one to estimate that the new ratables increased by $634 million in Equalized Valuation and that the rest of JC's $2.7 increase in EV came from appreciation.

Yes, 99 Hudson will have a big impact. All of Hudson County is going to feel that.

I don't like Steve Fulop for other reasons, but he should get credit for not PILOTing 99 Hudson.

Posted on: 10/6 11:23
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Re: New Equalized Valuations Out, JC at $28.4 billion
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I had said this before, in the early 1980s, development was happening without abatements. Mayor Cucci was stuck with a $20 million bill from the state for the school system and he approached developers with the idea of an abatement if they prepay their taxes. The first 4 Newport buildings were up without an tax abatement, they received it later from Mayor Cucci, Dixon was built without a tax abatement and so was Society Hill. Dixon and Society Hills never received a belated tax abatement like Newport. These developments happened when interest rates were double digit.

Posted on: 10/6 11:00
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Re: New Equalized Valuations Out, JC at $28.4 billion
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I've been fascinated by the 99 Hudson development. It's being built with NO TAX ABATEMENT and will contain 781 luxury condos. Average sales price may be well excess of $750,000.

That's $585,750,000 in new ratables. It will lead to a big drop in the property tax rate.

Posted on: 10/6 10:46
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Re: New Equalized Valuations Out, JC at $28.4 billion
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stateaidguy wrote:

I am posting this here because I've seen so much speculation on what the new tax rate will be after the reval. (which doesn't actually change the tax rate).



Tax Bill = Assessed Value * Tax Rate

Since the Total Assessed Value of the City increased according to your report, then the Tax Rate willdecrease.

That is assuming total appropriations/spending, average tax bill, etc. remains the same or if you prefer fancy words, ceteris paribus.

Posted on: 10/6 10:13
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Re: New Equalized Valuations Out, JC at $28.4 billion
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Thank you as always, SAG. Any insight on valuation post reval?


The aggregate assessed valuation and the Equalized Valuation are actually independent, but the new aggregate assessed valuation ought to be close to the Equalized Valuation since the assessed valuations are supposed to equal market values too.

If the new aggregate assessed valuation isn't that close to the Equalized Valuation it doesn't really matter though, since assessed valuation is the internal apportionment of a town's tax levy whereas Equalized Valuation is for the "intertown" apportionment of county taxes (and, theoretically, state aid) .

As long as the assessments are internally consistent and they align to up-to-date market values, then they are fair.

Since Jersey City's real estate market is so dynamic and it might be hard for the reval firm to keep up, I wouldn't be surprised if the aggregate valuation and EV don't match as closely as they would in a less hot real estate market.

What really matters for fair tax assessment is the Coefficient of Deviation, not how far the assessment is from the Equalized Valuation.

Quote:

This is likely good news for homeowners in general, but let's not forget that even if this resulted in a net decrease of the equivalent increased valuation (~10%) the city homeowners are still looking at an effective tax rate of 1.9% (given the 2.1% effective ta rate of 2016) which is still a substantial one for those properties that have appreciated so much over the past decade or two.

I do wonder if the effective rate would actually drop that much, considering that municipal ad valorem property taxes are only a portion of the total tax bill (isn't it around 60%?) with the remaining being taken up by school taxes (~26%) and county taxes. If the other rates do not adjust down, the net decrease would be closer to 6%, leaving the effective rate at a smidgen below 2%.


I agree that there are going to be Jersey City homeowners with extremely high tax bills post-reval, but their tax rates at ~1.9 are significantly lower than New Jersey's average of 2.4.

The definitely consequence of JC's growth in EV is a slightly higher proportion of the county tax levy.

For tax year 2017 Jersey City had 36% of Hudson County's total valuation. For tax year 2018 Jersey City will have 36.6%.

The second consequence is harder to predict, but Jersey City ought to lose school aid given New Jersey's severe fiscal crisis and JC's ability to sustain a higher tax levy. However, we have no idea if Phil Murphy actually will cut JC's state what mechanism he would use if he decided to do so.

Also, Jersey City did have ~$636 million new properties come onto the tax rolls. The average property owner's tax bill might drop because of this.

Posted on: 10/6 10:01
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Re: New Equalized Valuations Out, JC at $28.4 billion
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Mid 2000s you could buy a nice DTJC rowhouse for $1mm give or take a couple hundred K and pay around 12-13 in property taxes. Now that same place is 1.75+ and taxes are going to be over $30K. Suburb level taxes.

I think the key question for DTJC is will people pay the higher asset prices AND suburb level taxes. My guess is prices have to come down to reflect the new tax realities. Time will tell...

Posted on: 10/6 9:08
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Re: New Equalized Valuations Out, JC at $28.4 billion
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This is likely good news for homeowners in general, but let's not forget that even if this resulted in a net decrease of the equivalent increased valuation (~10%) the city homeowners are still looking at an effective tax rate of 1.9% (given the 2.1% effective ta rate of 2016) which is still a substantial one for those properties that have appreciated so much over the past decade or two.

I do wonder if the effective rate would actually drop that much, considering that municipal ad valorem property taxes are only a portion of the total tax bill (isn't it around 60%?) with the remaining being taken up by school taxes (~26%) and county taxes. If the other rates do not adjust down, the net decrease would be closer to 6%, leaving the effective rate at a smidgen below 2%.

Posted on: 10/6 8:56
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Re: New Equalized Valuations Out, JC at $28.4 billion
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Thank you as always, SAG. Any insight on valuation post reval?

Posted on: 10/6 6:57
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New Equalized Valuations Out, JC at $28.4 billion
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The Dept of Treasury just came out with new Equalized Valuations and JC grew by $2.7 billion to $28.4 billion. Of that increase, over $2 billion comes from appreciation of the existing housing stock and only $600+ million from new construction and the expiration of PILOTs.

JC's valuation is now 2.35% of the state's total.

I am posting this here because I've seen so much speculation on what the new tax rate will be after the reval. (which doesn't actually change the tax rate).

Anyway, JC's effective tax rate will surely decline as a result of the big increase in real estate wealth.

http://njeducationaid.blogspot.com/20 ... -equalized-valuation.html

Posted on: 10/5 22:31
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