The Heights has not done very well Imagine that fall to half value since 2006:


Newport and the rest of 07310 doing quite well:


And 07302 has been more steady...remember that uptick had quite a bit to do with the governmental $8000 largesse:


(Whew...didn't think I'd get those graphs in right!)

So a natural presumption would have to be that IF rents are rising (I'm not sure I see the same thing) an equillibrium will be reached.
Rising rents for knowledgeable renters (ahem) would seem to mean that they are assuming the superb advantage of renting over buying is now only a good advantage of renting over buying.

Presumably equillibrium will be reached by further rent increases and further real estate price declines.

Of course a serious decline in the employment picture of the NYC financial engine either by continuing recession/depression or a moving of all financial transactions offshore, easily done electronically these days, will lower both rentals AND home prices.


Does anyone else remember the housing crash of 1992? And that was only a micro-recession. And remember there was, not too long ago, something called the FASHION INDUSTRY in New York...poof!

Okay, take ONE apartment at Newport thay have been trying to sell for months with weekly open houses. Started at $589K and fell and fell and fell. Poor owners are stuck with something close to $800/month tax and maintenance about $600. This is a modest one bedroom (600-700 sq. ft.) with a terrific, though probably temporary view. Question becomes would someone rather RENT this place for $2,000 or less a month or buy it for a half million at almost twice that amount per month figuring a 4% mortgage?

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Agreed. I have been looking for a new place and rental prices are pushing upward and there is a lot less available than I have ever seen in the past. The rental market in DTJC is very strong with many would be buyers sitting on the sidelines.

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We have actually seen rents increasing the last few months. A 2 bedroom apartment that took a month to rent out last September at $1700/month took 2 days to rent out this time for $2000/month and we had two other couples who were waiting in line for the deal to fall through. This is in a 4 family brownstone. We have rented out 5 brownstone apartments in the last 2 months and all of them are getting higher rents then our other comparable apartments.

New construction buildings are a whole other story I am sure. Seems to be a scarcity of nice brownstone apartments on the market.

The real answer is if you find something you like you should buy it. Trying to time the market based on pricing is a losing proposition. What always gets forgotten in these discussions is that a property you live in is first and foremost a home. If you can find a place where you like the neighborhood, and like the apartment, and most importantly can afford the payments, buy it. The promise of a home making someone money should not be the reason to buy or not buy. No one likes to see their home decrease in value, but home prices like everything else in this world will fluctuate over time. If you're looking to make a profit, invest your money elsewhere, I hear Jersey City needs to raise funds, why not buy a muni bond?

I'd say Manhattan burbs are ridiculously cheap compared to similar properties in places like London and Tokyo.

And with extremely low interest rates, hell, yes, now is the time to buy.

The only caveat is jobs, and how many you think may move overseas. There is an exodus - say another 25% from Wall Street, that may translate to a further 25% drop in house prices 2010-2011. If you can factor that in to your purchase and rental, you'll do well.

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It was a great time to buy in JC then, but I don't think we'll ever see rent ratios (price/yearly gross income) like that again. The question is what will we see. Rents haven't gone up 400% like property did, but the demographics HAVE changes significantly.

I wonder if there's any MLS archive to look up what the rent ratio's were in Hoboken in the early 90's, about where we are now in the last cycle. I just looked at a property with a rent ratio of 13,(+-1 depending on what rents you could actually get). In 97 you could buy under 5. We did.

Just to emphasize how different the times are now, a commercial mortgage back then was 9.75%!

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Taxes are going up $9 for 2010, If you rent in a 3 family or less the owner can rent to whomever they want to and raise you hight in the sky. Apartment building are your best bet only a 4% hike mean while our taxes went up 15%. Tons of people want to live here J.C. will never go down in value or lose it's appeal the proximity is too great.

Absolutely its time to buy - BUT ONLY in the suburbs where bargins can be found and only with land and house deals - Inner City apartments and condos are a HUGE rip-off and should be avoided at all costs - The prices and over-heads are a joke and people are peeing their money down the drain - not to mention all the noise and maintanence issues associated with cheap-ass construction.

My tip is if you don't own the land, then your property investment is in the air!

I think housing prices in downtown Jersey City will continue downwards perhaps even accelerate because they have held up longer than other locales.

I would wait if I were interested in that particular market but I am not.

Unabated taxes in Jersey City are particularly unappealing.

But rent/buy decisions are personal and variable.My rent/buy decision is particularly easy and has been for some time..

The economists are saying the "recession" is over. If that is true, then home prices will go up in 2011. Per square ft, homes are cheaper than condos. If you find something you like - buy.

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Keep an eye on the rental income value vs. the sale price. When I bought my first house back in 1997, property was cheap, mortgage rates were rather high (8%+), and rents were higher than today (especially after adjusting for inflation). It was a great time to buy.

We aren't there yet. Rents are stagnant or falling. There are a lot of people renting out properties where the rent income does not cover expenses, let alone capital improvements. You can go about a max 5 years with new construction before you start to have to put money back into the property. Unless there is a big uptick in the economy, we will be having a lot of people walking away from their properties.

About five years ago everyone was saying buy, buy, buy and look what happened. Now everyone is saying that prices will continue down and not to buy - what does that tell you?

No. Do not buy. Wait.

I once thought the same as you back in 2007. Buy Buy Buy... build equity, save on taxes, the American Dream... went to so many open houses... made a few offers that were turned down.. (the sellers should have taken).

I finally found a place I like. But alas, I am now underwater to the tune of 80-90K and falling.

Meanwhile property taxes are going through the roof (which renters don't pay). And they will be going up up and up.

That being said I am actually thinking about strategically defaulting and walking away. I don't know how long it will take to recaputre its value. I could probably even rent it back from the bank even.

Save your money. Values are going to drop even more. Just take a look at all the boarded up shops on Newark Ave and our corrupt city government.

Who's gonna want to live here.

FG

my $0.02:

I think prices are going to drop even more. There is a tremendous volume of zombie inventory: Houses foreclosed on by mortgage company or the foreclosure put on indefinite hold.

I suspect there is a lot of hope that there will be some sort of bailout (i.e. the unspent stimulus money being spent to pay down the principal of underwater mortgages).

If the elections go well for the tea party crowd, any hope of that happening would be dashed. Then I expect a flood of foreclosures, short sales, and outright abandonments to hit the market.

What and how much?

House? Condo?

Budget?

It's about that time for me to stop renting and buy a place downtown. I know the neighborhoods, but I think experience as a renter differs from that of an owner. I'd like to stay away from high rises, too. Any input on neighborhoods of Hamilton Park, Van Vorst, or the new construction near Liberty Harbor around Grand Street? All comments welcome!