I would not wait because interest rates are low, can't get much lower.

From Today's San Francisco Chronicle's Real Estate Q&A
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article ... 2008/11/22/REEL13P0F8.DTL

Q: My partner and I are considering buying a condo in Jersey City, N.J. Our agent tells us that prices haven't really gone down in the area, and that they've actually gone up.

We found this one place we liked, but are a little unsure about buying right now with the financial markets being so volatile. However, we are very eager to take advantage of the current state of the real estate market.

Do you think we should wait a few months until the credit crisis subsides and Congress gets its act together?

A: Your guess is as good as mine. And although the bailout bill is now law, only time will tell what its impact will be on home buyers.

Keep in mind that if things do get better, interest rates and home prices may both go up.

You and your partner found a place you like, and which apparently you can afford. My advice: Go for it - don't wait. Obviously, you have the right to negotiate the purchase price, and despite what the broker is telling you about the market, the seller may be willing to drop the price. And if you can offer to close on the property quickly, that will be an incentive for the seller to lower the asking price.

I learned years ago that one should not buy a house based as an investment, but rather on whether this is the place you want to live for a period of time. Obviously, if the property increases in value, more power to you. But you like the house, so go ahead and buy it.

Realtors Say Foreigners Hold Key to Real Estate Revival

Fox News
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
By Phil Keating

American real estate agents say there's a surefire way to help the country's plummeting real estate market: Let foreigners retire here after they buy.

Miami agent Tony Macaluso is leading the charge to create a special new "Silver Card visa" that would ease restrictions on older immigrants ? but the National Association of Realtors, Congress and the State Department aren't biting just yet.

"This idea would be for someone who is over 50, who is retired, who has proof of income, who is not relying on our health care system or our welfare system," Macaluso told FOX News.

"When they come here it would be on a non-work visa, so they would be retired [and] their wealth that they are earning in another county would be spent here in the United States. And if there is something we could clearly use is more money coming into the country," he cotinued.

Foreign nationals who no longer work, but desire to spend their golden years in the United States can currently buy property here ? and many do.

But most of them have only tourist visas and must leave the country every six months and wait a few months more before they can re-enter the United States.

"I don't want to leave," said French citizen Estelle Nezel, who owns property but lives in the U.S. on a tourist visa. "I just want to stay here."

Other countries have realized the economic value of foreigners and the retirement capital flowing in to their nations.

Mexico, Panama and Costa Rica all encourage wealthy retirees to live in their respective countries with special visas, and even offer tax incentives. Partly because of this, an estimated 1 million Americans have retired to Mexico, 65,000 to Panama and another 35,000 to Costa Rica.

Nezel says she's an example as to why it makes sense.

"If I stay here, I rent a car, I go shopping, I spend money. I'm not taking anything from America. On the contrary, I'm just giving," she said.

While the National Association of Realtors has studied the "Silver Card" idea, it has yet to take a stand on it. The U.S. State Department, which issues more than 80 different types of visas, doesn't comment on proposals before they're mandated by Congress.

In the meantime, while Macaluso and other real estate agents struggle to find home buyers in dire economic times, they continue to work to persuade anyone who will listen of the advantages of a "silver card visa" for the United States.

"We need to step up to the plate saying, 'This is a really great place to be. We have a fine country we would like you to share. We would love you to come and spend your retirement funds here within our borders,'" Macaluso said.

Brian_em glad you love your job, evicting a tenant is like firing someone it does suck and fortunately i've never evicted someone because of a financial or health situation. I've only had to evict dirtbag types and yes I enjoy that thoroughly. Call me crazy.

From where I sit the RE market still has some reality checking to do. We've been keeping our eyes peeled for our next rental property, and a nearby 8 family we've admired for years came on the market. They want $850k for 8 60' railroads that pay a total of 35k/yr. That's a 25:1 rent ratio!

During the boom, you could buy out the tenants, renovate, condo and flip them. Today, what? It's a poison pill. Based on the ridiculously low rents, a bank would appraise that place for a commercial loan no higher than $400k , probably closer to $250k. But even if the banks got stupid again and loaned $600k, and you put down $250k, the monthly negative cashflow on a 8.5% 15 year payment of $5900/mo would be upwards of $4,500 after you include utilities and any maintenance at all.

No shuffling of price or financing makes this a feasible property for buy and hold, and to flip it you've got to put at least $500k down, maybe $200k in buyouts and another $2-300k+ in renovations. So you're up to $1.35m. It could pay off if you could sell them for $200k and up each, but with nobody lending, and everybody watching a plummeting market, who would put a cool million cash into a this kind of property for an uncertain return?

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Please see my last comment about losing your soul, it is even more relevant now...

Hatin' on you, absolutely not. I might not make millions, but I am lucky to have one of the coolest jobs in existence today, and I love every second of it.

Except, I've had to lay off two people this year. It's one of the hardest things I've ever done. I couldn't imagine what it must feel like to kick someone out of their home, let alone comprehend the psychotic issues you must have to laugh at such a thing...

I have rented then owned and I am now renting again. I was lucky to sell my condo just before the bubble burst and I made a nice profit. I hated the building I was in and the management company sucked so I was ecstatic to get out. I honestly don't mind renting again. The real estate market definitely was getting out of control as tons of people were going for the money grab. It really became too good to be true. You can still make money but now your gonna have to sit on a property awhile. And let's face it everyone is really a "speculator" since, in the end, you wanna make a profit.

Brian_em let me guess you were brought up by communist parents? What did I say that made me lose my soul. the fact that I am a smart real estate investor that buys and holds investment properties for a long period of time? or the fact that I provide housing for tenants like yourself that don't want to own and in turn a portion of your rent goes to pay my mortgage taxes insurance and maintanance?

If you ever talk real estate with oder people they will tell you "I wish i bought it and I wish I never sold it".

In a year or two condo/home values might be cut in half but I guarantee you rates will be significantly higher (which means your monthly expense can be the same as if you bought a much more expensive condo /home/investment property with todays rates) and the loans will be nearly impossible to get.

I've bought a majority of my properties 4 or 5 years ago and am looking to start unloading or condo converting in about 15 years. I think ill be ok but thanks for hatin the playa.
Landlord Tip of the Day " Dont be late with your rent this month, i might have to evict your ass !"

The stock market decline is more like 15% since the election and about 30% since Obama's winning became a near certainty.

Anywho, just as the housing bubble continuing amazed me in 2005-6, the slow speed of price decreases amazes me now. Given how dependent the NYC metro housing market is on financial services and media (both troubled industries replete with layoffs and decreased comp; perhaps permanently as a result of failed business models) it makes me think that people in real estate only learn over a year after things happen when denial is no longer an option.

Do they really think that people with no job security and savings ravaged by a 40% stock market decline in the past year, even with a low 6 figure income, (their market) are itching to buy at anything close to current prices?

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Is Alice Galmann for real, saying that things could redound significantly between now and Spring 2009? Where has she been for the past two months!! It will be at least another year before things start to get better and it won't be significantly better.

"She said even the election of new president may help settle a volatile market, now that people know what?s ahead." Yeah, since the election, the stock market has tanked another 10%, so THAT will help the housing market for sure.

All of these realtors are drinking the Kool-Aid!

On the homefront
Local housing market relatively stable even in crisis

by Timothy J. Carroll
Hudson Reporter
Nov 16

KEEP BUILDING ? Real estate specialists say the market in town held strong, but is now feeling the pressure. The same sources agree that the market will bounce back in the somewhat near future, regardless of long-term problems like pending revaluations and higher taxes.
slideshow

Many towns are drowning in the national housing crisis, but experts say Hoboken is staying afloat ? for the time being.

New Jersey overall is doing moderately better than the rest of the country. For the second quarter of 2008, home foreclosure rates were at 2.75 percent nationwide, while New Jersey was slightly lower at 2.7 percent, according to statistics provided to the state by the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Mortgage delinquency rates for the same time period in New Jersey were 5.43 percent, significantly better than the national rate of 6.22 percent, according to the state.

But compared to past years, local home foreclosure filings are through the roof. In Hudson County, they have tripled in the past three years. Foreclosure filings per month went from 84 in 2006 to 148 in 2007 and exploded to 237 per month for the first nine months of 2008.

Offers from buyers are coming in too low, sellers are reluctant to lower prices, and some people just can?t make their mortgage payments.

The perfect storm

Carey Finn at Remax Gold Coast Realty on Newark Street said the average price for a home in town was $550,000 to $600,000 before the downturn, and is now approximately $450,000 to $550,000. In her experience, she said, rock-bottom condo prices have dropped from approximately $320,000 to $255,000.

This is still much higher than 15 years ago, where entire apartment buildings in Hoboken could sometimes go for under a million dollars.

Finn said although the city?s real estate market isn?t tanking, the brokers in town now have a nine-month supply of housing; usually the supply is much scarcer.

Hoboken?s proximity and easy access to New York City is always a big draw. Hoboken living also offers more space at lower prices.

Finn said that being a walking city, Hoboken has the convenience and lifestyle that people are looking for.

Alice Galmann, a partner at Singleton Galmann Realty, says that the Gold Coast wasn?t affected as quickly as the rest of the country, but is now starting to feel the pain. Some of her clients are lowering their asking prices as much as $100,000 to better attract buyers.

She has told sellers that the market could rebound significantly between now and spring of 2009.
________

?These are certainly scary things for real estate.?? Alice Galmann
________

Galmann said the current real estate market in town is weathering ?the perfect storm?: a tanking economy, widespread layoffs, a significant tax increase in Hoboken, and the looming threat of a property assessment revaluation in Hoboken that will shake up the tax burden in town.

?These are certainly scary things for real estate,? Galmann said. ?Right now even the rental market, which is usually very strong, is getting soft.?

Unfortunately, there is a group of property owners, according to Galmann, who can?t wait for the storm to pass and will simply have to sell homes they can no longer afford.

?These people aren?t selling to make a profit,? she said. ?There were always more people who wanted to rent, but now people need to rent.?

For those who can wait, the real estate market historically improves in the spring, Galmann said, and the chance that taxpayers will see significant roll backs of recent tax increases sets the stage for a potential bounce back.

She said even the election of new president may help settle a volatile market, now that people know what?s ahead.

Insider opinion

A private real estate investor from Hoboken, who asked to remain anonymous, said last week that now is the time to scoop up local property while the price is right.

?I consider it a buy,? he said, in reference to Hoboken?s housing stock.

He said that some development company ? perhaps Tarragon, which has several properties in Hoboken but has had financial problems of late ? may end up turning over some of the unfinished properties over to the banks if they can?t stay afloat.

But he said many of the troubles nagging companies like Tarragon stem from developments outside of New Jersey and far from Hoboken.

He also said that any unused commercial space in town, especially along Washington Street, is not a sign of a slumping market but rather the ?stubborn? landlords who want to dictate the business in their commercial space.

Open forum

Ann Wycherley, a real estate agent at Century 21 Realty in Hoboken, is trying to get answers to homeowners? (and buyers?) questions.

Wycherly and her associates have set up an open discussion forum for Wednesday, Nov. 19 from 6 to 8 p.m. at their location at 74 Washington St.

Prospective buyers and prospective sellers can get answers about their home values, when to buy, the effect of the upcoming city tax increase, and refinancing, she said. (For past stories on the city?s tax increase, see www.hobokenreporter.com).

Several realtors will be on hand as well as a panel of experts, including Steve Veno, mortgage broker, Anthony Cunningham, an accountant, and Paul Bonsey, a financial analyst from Smith Barney.

The forum is open to anyone and refreshments will be provided.

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Actually, you said a "mansion in the burbs and drive my new Ferrari to work everyday."


The 'cheapest' new Ferrari costs a hair over $200k MSRP (but are still going for over that). That leaves you $600k for a 'mansion'. That will get you a nice house, but I'm not sure what you mean by a mansion.

I was implying that for the price of a condo in JC, you could buy a nice house in the burbs and have enough left over to buy a Ferrari.

Just trying to illustrate that technically the price is the same, but the values are different to each person.

If someone wants to pay 800k for a condo on newark ave, and they love their place, Good for them. They made a good choice.

But no one wants to hear these richers complain when their "networth" has gone down, because they bought a house with expectations of it generating income for them, rather than just living in it...

I know that some people really aren't meant for the city.

But do a little reading and you'll see that McMansions are already going down the tubes!

As far as I care you can keep your burbs and your leased cars.

Quote:

Quote:

If I were you I wouldn't worry about your shirt, looks like you've already lost your soul...

And I think there is a strong undercurrent in that article that shows what I've been ranting about for years. Maybe I'm just nuts, but I think the main problem with the realestate market is people buying a house for the wrong reason...

I will go on record and say, I will never in my lifetime buy a home because I think it will make me money. I will buy a home because I want to live in it.

The realesate crap has gotten out of hand. There are too many people trying to play "Donald Trump" these days, and it's all going to bite them in the a$$.

I'm under 30 and I rent, and have NO PROBLEM doing so. I think the value of anything is how much someone is actually willing to pay for it. Personally for me, If i won 5 million dollars next week, the last thing i would ever do is buy a 800k condo on newark ave. in jersey city. For that price I'd buy a mansion in the burbs and drive my new Ferrari to work everyday.

And unless Obama knows how to piss gold, I'll buy your 800k condo for 1/2 the price on my 30th birthday...

The only condo development with half a chance is the Trump Tower after they have a fire sale to get out of them. They will be price dropped, significantly.

The real estate industry is in a tail spin and in 6 - 8 months watch those prices drop for developers to keep the Banks at bay....sorry realtors, but no more big commissions on sales, the bullshit is over and reality is here to stay!

Alot of haters on this thread. Some of you sound like my certain relatives and friends that think because real estate is down im losing my shirt.

I've never thought of condos as particularly "good investmemnt properties" but it sure beats paying someone elses mortgage.

keep renting and paying down my mortgages, lets compare net worths in 10 years. Thanks

a lot of fluff. but this pretty much sumed up the current situation on many different levels.

Quote:


anyone still remember that beacon thread around 6 months ago, where all the lemmings kept on arguing why beacon is such a good investment.

Xerxes, save some for me, I'm right behind you! No way is Trump 85% sold - take a look at it at night (there's hardly any lights on), it MIGHT be 50% if that. Sure, people bought to rent out, but looking at Craig's List a lot of flippers must be sorry now.

They must MEDICATE these people to get them to look so happy while thinking about the next $4,000 payment on the first of the month.
But hey, it's a WHOLE one bedroom!


If they sold 375 apartments in Trump Tower, I'll EAT the building.

too far from PATH but Beacon is nice 4 pioneers

Wow! Those are some nice apartments. I cannot even imagine living in a place that nice. It reminded me of a room with no specific purpose that my aunt would never let us go into when we were younger.

http://www.nypost.com/seven/10302008/ ... ainst_the_wall_135896.htm


Ankur Randev and his wife, Rachna, live at Trump Plaza Jersey City.


Ankur Randev and his wife, Rachna, departed Midtown for Trump Plaza Jersey City.


Sean Corolan and his wife, Magdalena, recently purchased a condo at Ivy House.


AWAY FROM THE FRAY: Pink Elephant's Rocco Ancarola moved from NoLita to a three-bedroom rental in Jersey City.


READY FOR THE SPOTLIGHT: The Beacon condo development (top), which used to be a hospital, now has amenities including a screening room (bottom), a swimming pool and a sauna.

UP AGAINST THE WALL -- JERSEY CITY TAKES STOCK

By ADAM BONISLAWSKI
New York Post
October 30, 2008

James Keating doesn't work on Wall Street. But living in Jersey City, he's had a front-row seat to the financial sector's recent traumas.

Keating, a resident of the Beacon condo development, takes his building's free shuttle to the PATH train each morning. The day of the Lehman Brothers collapse, he sat across from two of his fellow residents - one an employee at Lehman and the other an employee at Merrill Lynch (which sold itself to Bank of America just a few days later). They were, of course, discussing what fates awaited them at the office.

"One of them was saying to the other that he wondered if he should have brought a cardboard box with him to collect his things," recalls Keating, vice president of marketing at Shopwiki.com.

Such is life these days on "Wall Street West," as Jersey City is often called, given the area's close ties to Manhattan's investment world. Home to some 24,000 finance jobs and to thousands more residents who work in the industry across the river in Manhattan, Jersey City's fortunes are very much entwined with those of Wall Street.

Which, given the markets' current woes, probably isn't the most reassuring fact in the world. Especially if you're trying to sell Jersey City real estate.

"What's going on right now is scary," says Dean Geibel, managing partner of Metro Homes, the development company that built the Trump Plaza Jersey City condo tower. "It has a lot of people sitting on the sidelines. Sales haven't come to a halt, but it's slower because people are being cautious."

The 440-unit building (plans for a second 417-unit tower are on hold) has sold 375 apartments since going to market at the end of 2006. With the market slowing, however, the building is offering concessions like six months of free parking, although Geibel says he has yet to resort to price cuts (currently, one-bedrooms start at $495,000, two-bedrooms at $799,000 and three-bedrooms at $899,000).

Sales are similarly slow at developer K. Hovnanian's 77 Hudson, which, with prices averaging around $850 per square foot, is one of Jersey City's priciest buildings. On sale since July 2007, apartments in the 420-unit building are only 30 percent sold.

Tom Graham, the building's senior community director, says that K. Hovnanian is covering transfer taxes and other closing costs in an effort to lure buyers to the building. Nevertheless, Graham admits, sales office traffic is down 15 to 20 percent since September.

Curiously, though, Graham notes that the week Congress began discussion of the bailout plan, sales at 77 Hudson were relatively strong, with five units purchased - all by international buyers. Which raises the question - just how essential are Wall Street workers to Jersey City's housing market?

"When we first started marketing, our target market was the Wall Street buyer," Graham says. "But it turns out that's not who's been buying."

Then again, with close to 300 units still unsold, it's going to take more than foreign buyers, who have also been hit hard by the world's falling markets.

Still, Jamie LeFrak, managing director of the LeFrak Organization, similarly suggests that Jersey City's Wall Street ties have been overblown.

"The whole region is in the same boat together. Brooklyn is tied to the financial sector. Queens is tied to the financial sector. You could make the same exact statement about Bergen County, Westchester County, Nassau County," says LeFrak, whose Jersey City projects consist of nearly 5,000 residential units and will soon include the new 350-unit Aquablu rental building (studios start at $2,079, one-bedrooms at $2,257, two-bedrooms at $2,808 and three-bedrooms at $3,885).

Then again, Keating estimates that more than a third of his neighbors at the Beacon work in finance.

"You can definitely see the fear," he says. "People are going around asking each other, 'Are you going to be all right?' "

And Beacon developer George Filopoulos has changed his plans to build an adjacent 103-unit condo building, opting instead for 26 3,000- to 6,000-square-foot live/work lofts (with prices starting around $900,000) - a hedge against reduced demand.

"I wanted to offer something different from what's on the market," Filopoulos says. "We have to admit that there may be less buyers to go around than there were in 2005."

The Beacon's first building had nearly sold out by early 2008, with apartments in the 315-unit building going for under $500 per square foot. Fifty of those sales fell through, however, when the buyers were unable to secure financing. Since those 50 units returned to the market this September, five of them have sold.

But there are signs of hope in Jersey City. Near the Grove Street PATH station is Ivy House, a boutique condo building from Fields Development Group and TreeTop Development, which has sold 15 of its 18 units since going on sale at the beginning of July. With prices around $500 per square foot, the units are aimed at entry-level buyers, a demographic, says Fields principal James Caulfield, that's been under-served by new construction.

Retail planning director Sean Corolan and his wife, Magdalena, bought a two-bedroom in the building. Although nervous about the effects of the downturn, he's convinced that the area's relatively low prices will help protect his investment.

"We definitely talked about it: 'Is this a good time to buy with everything that's going on?' " he says. "But the thing I always come back to is that I see such a big discount in price per square foot. You can't even get close to this on price in Brooklyn."

And, of course, the proximity to Manhattan (the Financial District is just a five-minute PATH ride away), which helped tie Jersey City to Wall Street in the first place, won't be going away - regardless of what the market does.

"I'm still very confident that this area is going to appreciate," says hospitality industry executive Ankur Randev, who, with his wife Rachna, moved from Midtown to Trump Plaza Jersey City in June.

"At the end of the day, you're five minutes from lower Manhattan, but you have a $500-per-square-foot spread in price."

And then there are those who don't want anything to do with living in New York, anyway.

Manhattan nightclub owner Rocco Ancarola (of Pink Elephant fame) moved from NoLita to a three-bedroom rental by the Grove Street PATH stop three years ago. Since then, he's gotten hooked on his neighborhood's peace and quiet.

"I wake up in the morning in a Zen-like atmosphere," he says. "I can't wait to get back to New Jersey after my work in the city."

And, by the way, if you're a developer worried about luring buyers from across the river in this current climate, well, listen up - Ancarola has some good news.

"You put my name and picture in the paper, people will be flocking to Jersey City," he jokes.

So there's that, at least.

----------
Market watch

TRUMP PLAZA JERSEY CITY

The 440-unit tower (one-bedrooms start at $495,000) has sold 375 condos, with units averaging around $700 per square foot. Plans for a second building are on hold.

77 HUDSON

The 420-unit building, with condos averaging around $850 per square foot, is 30 percent sold. One buyer bought two penthouse units, a combined 4,188 square feet, for $6 million last year.

THE BEACON

Fifty units in the 315-unit building, with condos selling for less than $500 per square foot, returned to the market this September. Five have sold. In early 2007, a two-story penthouse sold for $2.3 million.

IVY HOUSE

This 18-unit boutique building, with prices around $500 per square foot, has sold 15 condos since hitting the market in July.

==============================================
Also curbed had this:
http://curbed.com/archives/2008/10/30 ... o_be_feeling_the_hurt.php

Jersey City Appears to be Feeling the Hurt
curbed.com
Thursday, October 30, 2008, by Joey

The condo boom that swept over the city and settled across the Hudson (it managed to survive fording the river, unlike so many cattle in "Oregon Trail") is now looking like a condo bust, at least in Jersey City. Not too long ago, blog The Life Vicarious wrote that the waterfront Trump Plaza Jersey City (name licesned by The Donald, 'natch) was delaying the start of construction on its second tower. If fact, TLV wrote, "The Trump building is looking more and more like a headstone for Jersey City's highrise boom." Today the Post provides an update on the Jersey City market, and while the paper isn't ready to bury the whole town quite yet, there are some troubling tidbits. First, on Trump:

The 440-unit building (plans for a second 417-unit tower are on hold) has sold 375 apartments since going to market at the end of 2006. With the market slowing, however, the building is offering concessions like six months of free parking, although Geibel says he has yet to resort to price cuts (currently, one-bedrooms start at $495,000, two-bedrooms at $799,000 and three-bedrooms at $899,000).

But Jersey City's dependence on Wall Streeters and foreign buyers isn't hurting just the Trump building, of course:

Sales are similarly slow at developer K. Hovnanian's 77 Hudson, which, with prices averaging around $850 per square foot, is one of Jersey City's priciest buildings. On sale since July 2007, apartments in the 420-unit building are only 30 percent sold. Tom Graham, the building's senior community director, says that K. Hovnanian is covering transfer taxes and other closing costs in an effort to lure buyers to the building.

Will things get worse in Jersey City before they get better? Well, if the empty lot that was supposed to be Trump Jersey City II becomes a huge Tent City, do let us know.