hero69 wrote:
of course, the tax benefits were gonna go to the 0.1%. get real. trump is no robinhood. lol.

i.m distraught that the senate didn't do away with the amt for individuals.

bodhipooh wrote:
almost universally, everybody is in favor of more services, more handouts, and more assistance, until it is their turn to pony up money to cover those costs.

brewster wrote:
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stillinjc wrote:
Geez, weren't affluent liberals telling us how much they want to pay higher taxes, and now when they have an opportunity to do so, they're whining...

We didn't want to pay those taxes to the 0.1%!!!

stillinjc wrote:
Geez, weren't affluent liberals telling us how much they want to pay higher taxes, and now when they have an opportunity to do so, they're whining...

heights wrote:
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hero69 wrote:
maybe more and more jersey cities will consider consolidation in order to be run more efficiently. honestly, i don't understand why hudson and bergen counties don't consolidate into one hudson city which would still be smaller than manhattan.

maybe governor-elect murphy should establish a commission to force municipal consolidation.

That is a ridiculous plan, it's not as if we are The South where all the towns are small and they just go by counties. Plus J.C. cannot keep up with their services and police matters as it is. We have equipment suitable for the size of Bayonne, Hoboken, or Secaucus. Our roads are atrocious and the repairs are a joke. Traffic patterns and parking have become a daily battle of wits and aside from bicycle use transportation options are minimal. North Hudson county has consolidated their fire department and that has worked well only because it has to follow strict guidelines with the state and their job is not taxing till it come time to deal with a fire which is a job in itself.

hero69 wrote:
maybe more and more jersey cities will consider consolidation in order to be run more efficiently. honestly, i don't understand why hudson and bergen counties don't consolidate into one hudson city which would still be smaller than manhattan.

maybe governor-elect murphy should establish a commission to force municipal consolidation.

SOS wrote:
Things looking grim in wealthier NJ suburbs, anticipating no SALT deduction -

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/17/nyr ... -new-jersey-tax-bill.html

SOS wrote:
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bodhipooh wrote:
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Dolomiti wrote:

Of course, you should feel free to put your money where your mouth is, and if you personally own in DTJC you should sell now. Right?

I live in DTJC as a renter... I have chosen to to sit out the market until things are clearer. Or, if things go sideways, until the dust settles somewhat.

We should know more by mid to late 2019, after the impact of the upcoming tax changes have been fully experienced.

Good luck trying to time the market. From Aesop, The Fox and the Grapes.

bodhipooh wrote:
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Dolomiti wrote:

Of course, you should feel free to put your money where your mouth is, and if you personally own in DTJC you should sell now. Right?

I live in DTJC as a renter... I have chosen to to sit out the market until things are clearer. Or, if things go sideways, until the dust settles somewhat.

We should know more by mid to late 2019, after the impact of the upcoming tax changes have been fully experienced.

bodhipooh wrote:
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Dolomiti wrote:

Of course, you should feel free to put your money where your mouth is, and if you personally own in DTJC you should sell now. Right?

I live in DTJC as a renter... I have chosen to to sit out the market until things are clearer. Or, if things go sideways, until the dust settles somewhat.

We should know more by mid to late 2019, after the impact of the upcoming tax changes have been fully experienced.

Dolomiti wrote:

Of course, you should feel free to put your money where your mouth is, and if you personally own in DTJC you should sell now. Right?

bodhipooh wrote:
Well, now that it is a guarantee that the tax reform bill will be passed, we have enough details to know there will be some severe impact on homeownership in our area....

brewster wrote:
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bodhipooh wrote:
I do not expect a full-blown crash. I do think there will be some churn, some instability, and probably a drop in values as some people feel forced to dump properties they are suddenly not able to afford. But, Jersey City is very enticing for many people, and not just financial refugees from NYC. But, there are a few factors that give me pause, and we will have to wait to see what happens. An elimination or capping of mortgage or SALT deduction, plus the uncertain state of school / BOE taxes (you can be certain that if we end up with a 1.6% tax rate, Trenton and many municipalities will be pushing for JC to take on a larger share of the local BOE budget) and there is the fact that we are in a 10-year period since the last correction/recession.

There's a whole lot of moving parts in this machine, and many of them have the potential to affect the market. As for the DT school situation, I hope the overflow is temporary and more schools are coming, didn't some of the abatement deals include school space? I think the district was irresponsible not leasing the Resurrection School on 7th when the Diocese closed it, they must have seen this coming.

brewster wrote:


Have you looked at any comps recently? Things have gone through the roof,

MDM wrote:
At 1.62% I am looking at a significant cut in my taxes, even after adjusting my appraised value up significantly. For me this will be a savings of $10k to $15k a year (multiple properties).

That will cover most of my son's tuition, once he is old enough to attend school.

bodhipooh wrote:
I do not expect a full-blown crash. I do think there will be some churn, some instability, and probably a drop in values as some people feel forced to dump properties they are suddenly not able to afford. But, Jersey City is very enticing for many people, and not just financial refugees from NYC. But, there are a few factors that give me pause, and we will have to wait to see what happens. An elimination or capping of mortgage or SALT deduction, plus the uncertain state of school / BOE taxes (you can be certain that if we end up with a 1.6% tax rate, Trenton and many municipalities will be pushing for JC to take on a larger share of the local BOE budget) and there is the fact that we are in a 10-year period since the last correction/recession.

bodhipooh wrote:
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JCGuys wrote:
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bodhipooh wrote:

As for "who cares about kids"... precisely the people that you highlight as not caring about kids (those childless by choice, or perhaps single) are precisely the kind of people who often find it objectionable to have to pay such high taxes when getting nothing in return! Often times, the people with kids choose to move further out into the burbs because, well, if you are going to pay 25 - 30 K annually in taxes, you "might as well get something out of it".

But the 1.6% property tax rate is less than the burbs. Why would someone without kids move to the burbs only to pay higher school taxes? If the burbs had a lower property tax rate, I could see where you have a point but the reverse is true.

I have no doubt there will be some people priced out of downtown Jersey City, but I also have no doubt there will be many more people moving into downtown Jersey City (from Manhattan and Brooklyn). I don't see a market crash because of the reval.

I do not expect a full-blown crash. I do think there will be some churn, some instability, and probably a drop in values as some people feel forced to dump properties they are suddenly not able to afford. But, Jersey City is very enticing for many people, and not just financial refugees from NYC. But, there are a few factors that give me pause, and we will have to wait to see what happens. An elimination or capping of mortgage or SALT deduction, plus the uncertain state of school / BOE taxes (you can be certain that if we end up with a 1.6% tax rate, Trenton and many municipalities will be pushing for JC to take on a larger share of the local BOE budget) and there is the fact that we are in a 10-year period since the last correction/recession. Ideally, none of those three things will come to pass, but if one or two or all three come to be, well... all bets are off. The 2007 situation was bad (assuredly, DTJC fared better than the rest of JC, and recovered quickly) so a combination of all these factors could be brutal. But, long term, JC is likely to have a very bright future. Enough change has taken place and I think the city will be fine.

JCGuys wrote:
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bodhipooh wrote:

As for "who cares about kids"... precisely the people that you highlight as not caring about kids (those childless by choice, or perhaps single) are precisely the kind of people who often find it objectionable to have to pay such high taxes when getting nothing in return! Often times, the people with kids choose to move further out into the burbs because, well, if you are going to pay 25 - 30 K annually in taxes, you "might as well get something out of it".

But the 1.6% property tax rate is less than the burbs. Why would someone without kids move to the burbs only to pay higher school taxes? If the burbs had a lower property tax rate, I could see where you have a point but the reverse is true.

I have no doubt there will be some people priced out of downtown Jersey City, but I also have no doubt there will be many more people moving into downtown Jersey City (from Manhattan and Brooklyn). I don't see a market crash because of the reval.

bodhipooh wrote:

As for "who cares about kids"... precisely the people that you highlight as not caring about kids (those childless by choice, or perhaps single) are precisely the kind of people who often find it objectionable to have to pay such high taxes when getting nothing in return! Often times, the people with kids choose to move further out into the burbs because, well, if you are going to pay 25 - 30 K annually in taxes, you "might as well get something out of it".

bodhipooh wrote:
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thor800 wrote:
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bodhipooh wrote:
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thor800 wrote:

Also, how could anyone whos taxes arent increasing / substantially dropping (greenville & west side) complain that downtown isnt paying enough ? Seems like everyone wants a free ride these days

Again with this? You obviously don't get it. This new (estimated) numbers show what most have been claiming for years now: that DTJC had been underpaying their taxes to the detriment of poorer residents in areas that have seen little or no appreciation.

Yes I realize that genius - and reductions in taxes for Greenville \ Westside are totally warranted, but how is 1.6% multiplier for downtown not enough tho ? Hence free rides

Like I said, you just don't get it. The ~1.6% rate is what EVERYONE will be paying once the reval is concluded. People have been complaining until now because the effective rate being paid my many/most of DTJC was often 1% or lower, while other areas, like Greenville, were paying closer to 5-6%, which is why they are seeing such a substantial drop in their average payment.

JCGuys wrote:
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bodhipooh wrote:
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JCGuys wrote:
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mfadam wrote:
Dolmoti is spot on. Tight inventory and high demand will soften the blow to DTJC RE in the short term. Longer term it's tough to say. 1.6% is less than I was expecting so frankly it could have been worse for DTJC.

The real issue is will DTJC buyers pay suburb level taxes for lousy city services (iffy schools). Trump's tax plan ain't making the case any easier. Taxes are sunk costs, owners aren't building equity with those payments.

My take is DTJC is overvalued as are stock markets and RE in general. I think if the other bubbles deflate DTJC will take it a bit harder than average. As always tough to know when or if other bubbles pop...

No one cares about schools. You're either living the life with no children or sending your kids to private schools if you can afford a $7,000 a month mortgage payment.

Downtown prices will continue to appreciate because they're still a bargain compared to New York City prices.

I am not so sure I agree with this take. Take an upper middle class family, paying 5K for monthly mortgage, now add 2K for taxes, and if they have a kid that's another 2K for private school. That's 9K / month. Or, you can go to BK, or even Manhattan, and be able to get an 8K mortgage, with almost negligible property taxes (definitely below 1K for that mortgage) and free schooling and you end up spending the same or less in NYC, with better city services at your disposal. At some point, the combination of crazy property taxes + shitty city services + private schools starts to bridge the gap in real estate costs.

What's missing from your calculation is the NYC income tax that all NYC residents must pay and that can be easily avoided by living in Jersey. And who cares about kids? The folks moving here could be on permanent birth control or same sex and quality of schools have exactly zero influence on their decision to buy.

The beauty of this discussion is we will find out relatively soon who is right and I hope every posts is bumped a year from now to see who was right and who got it painfully wrong.

In my opinion, prices should have plummeted already if prices were expected to fall in the near future.