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Re: I've seen pre-construction sales but this is ridiculous! 323 7th St
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No perfect predictor comments are very true. It's greed that gets folks into trouble. Many old timer Wall Streeters live by this pithy maxim, "Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered".

Posted on: 8/20 15:08
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Re: I've seen pre-construction sales but this is ridiculous! 323 7th St
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Dolomiti wrote:
So, if you exit a real estate market 3+ years before there is a crash, based on a poor predictor (e.g. a few properties whose price is absurd), you may pay a steeper price than exiting shortly after property prices increase by 25% per year.


Problem is, there's no such thing as a perfect predictor, if there were there would never be a crash. People ignore warning signs, say they're poor predictors or "this time it's different" and drive up markets past all rationality, and I'm not just talking about JC RE. It's what happens, going way back to the legendary tulip craze and the Southsea Bubble. Big rewards rarely comes without risk, but people seem to forget that.

Posted on: 8/16 23:42
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Re: I've seen pre-construction sales but this is ridiculous! 323 7th St
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Dolomiti wrote:
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JCman24 wrote:
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Dolomiti wrote:

A broken clock isn't actually correct, because it isn't actually working. It never accurately tells you the real time, because even if it's busted at 10:20, and the time is 10:20, you can't rely on the clock to be informing you that it is, in fact, 10:20 when you happen to be looking at it.


That's the entire point of the saying, you dolt.

1) Insults like that are uncalled for, and do not help you make your point.

2) Since you obviously missed it: Brewster used the cliche to suggest that predictions of imminent real estate doom in DT JC are justified, even if they wrong over and over and over again, because eventually someone who makes that prediction will be "right." I'm pointing out that isn't the case.

E.g. If you rub two stones together and say "this will make it rain tomorrow" every single day, then you are still not correct on the day that it inevitably rains.

So, if you exit a real estate market 3+ years before there is a crash, based on a poor predictor (e.g. a few properties whose price is absurd), you may pay a steeper price than exiting shortly after property prices increase by 25% per year. And even if you miraculously exit the market at the perfect time, that still doesn't prove that your "indicator" actually works.

Get it?


Breathe.

Posted on: 8/16 14:34
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Re: I've seen pre-construction sales but this is ridiculous! 323 7th St
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JCman24 wrote:
Quote:

Dolomiti wrote:

A broken clock isn't actually correct, because it isn't actually working. It never accurately tells you the real time, because even if it's busted at 10:20, and the time is 10:20, you can't rely on the clock to be informing you that it is, in fact, 10:20 when you happen to be looking at it.


That's the entire point of the saying, you dolt.

1) Insults like that are uncalled for, and do not help you make your point.

2) Since you obviously missed it: Brewster used the cliche to suggest that predictions of imminent real estate doom in DT JC are justified, even if they wrong over and over and over again, because eventually someone who makes that prediction will be "right." I'm pointing out that isn't the case.

E.g. If you rub two stones together and say "this will make it rain tomorrow" every single day, then you are still not correct on the day that it inevitably rains.

So, if you exit a real estate market 3+ years before there is a crash, based on a poor predictor (e.g. a few properties whose price is absurd), you may pay a steeper price than exiting shortly after property prices increase by 25% per year. And even if you miraculously exit the market at the perfect time, that still doesn't prove that your "indicator" actually works.

Get it?

Posted on: 8/16 10:01
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Re: I've seen pre-construction sales but this is ridiculous! 323 7th St
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Dolomiti wrote:

A broken clock isn't actually correct, because it isn't actually working. It never accurately tells you the real time, because even if it's busted at 10:20, and the time is 10:20, you can't rely on the clock to be informing you that it is, in fact, 10:20 when you happen to be looking at it.


That's the entire point of the saying, you dolt.

Posted on: 8/15 21:22
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Re: I've seen pre-construction sales but this is ridiculous! 323 7th St
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True, but the thread is about 323 7th St which is downtown.

One should not be purchasing property for a short time horizon without having a stomach for risk. That is real estate investments are generally long investments as it takes time to recoup closing/transaction costs, among other reasons. I'm sure your not-downtown 2004 purchase's market value is well above what you paid.


Posted on: 8/15 14:06
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Re: I've seen pre-construction sales but this is ridiculous! 323 7th St
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Ralph_Abutts wrote:
I think predicting a "crash" is a bit strong. Even at the last RE bubble, folks in downtown took a big hit, but not nearly as bad as others regionally or nationally .


There's more to JC than downtown. According to the appraisals I received in 2012, my 2004 Heights purchase lost 25% off the purchase price. Had I needed to sell rather than just trying to refi that would have been a really big deal. And had I bought it two years later the loss would have been far more significant.

Posted on: 8/15 11:34
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Re: I've seen pre-construction sales but this is ridiculous! 323 7th St
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I think predicting a "crash" is a bit strong. Even at the last RE bubble, folks in downtown took a big hit, but not nearly as bad as others regionally or nationally, ie not much in the way of foreclosures, and the local market rebounded quite well. As much as folks may lament here, those who are purchasing RE are taking a big risk, but are also being rewarded quite well.

Posted on: 8/15 9:55
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Re: I've seen pre-construction sales but this is ridiculous! 323 7th St
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Dolomiti wrote:
Someone who predicts doom for JC real estate, and gets the reasons totally wrong, and the timing totally wrong?


Look at it this way: in every market cycle there's going to be people who get out too early, and those who buy just before it crashes. Which would you rather be? Sure, you'd like to be the guy that times it perfectly, surely you know that's not easy or everyone would be doing it!

Winter is coming...this we know, because it always has. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise. I don't think most fans of GoT really think about how weird and fucked up it would be if you didn't actually know when winter would come. You'd not know when to start saving food or preserving meat. Every cold snap would make you think it's coming and every Indian Summer heat wave would reassure you it's not. Market cycles are like that.

Posted on: 8/15 9:43
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Re: I've seen pre-construction sales but this is ridiculous! 323 7th St
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brewster wrote:
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Dolomiti wrote:
I have to point out that people on JC List (not the people posting in this thread so far) have seen "signs" of bubbles and bursts for at least 3 years now.


Sometimes, as last time, these thing have so many moving parts and outside forces it's hard to predict. Even a broken clock is eventually right! I see prices going sky high, but not rents or salaries. That spells trouble to me, but I already admitted to being too timid to buy in this market.

Did you read the article about the dude who had been predicting the economic disaster in Turkey for at least 6 years? He was right, it just took time.

A broken clock isn't actually correct, because it isn't actually working. It never accurately tells you the real time, because even if it's busted at 10:20, and the time is 10:20, you can't rely on the clock to be informing you that it is, in fact, 10:20 when you happen to be looking at it.

Someone who predicts doom for JC real estate, and gets the reasons totally wrong, and the timing totally wrong? Sorry, but they are still wrong. And very, very few people get it right most of the time. (Read Phil Tetlock's books for a thorough examination of the inaccuracy of human predictions.)

Posted on: 8/14 23:31
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Re: I've seen pre-construction sales but this is ridiculous! 323 7th St
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A broken clock etc.

Posted on: 8/14 23:30
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Re: I've seen pre-construction sales but this is ridiculous! 323 7th St
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Dolomiti wrote:
I have to point out that people on JC List (not the people posting in this thread so far) have seen "signs" of bubbles and bursts for at least 3 years now.


Sometimes, as last time, these thing have so many moving parts and outside forces it's hard to predict. Even a broken clock is eventually right! I see prices going sky high, but not rents or salaries. That spells trouble to me, but I already admitted to being too timid to buy in this market.

Did you read the article about the dude who had been predicting the economic disaster in Turkey for at least 6 years? He was right, it just took time.

Posted on: 8/14 22:14
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Re: I've seen pre-construction sales but this is ridiculous! 323 7th St
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I have to point out that people on JC List (not the people posting in this thread so far) have seen "signs" of bubbles and bursts for at least 3 years now. Such as sky-high prices on individual properties, or crowded PATH trains, or the reval, or...

One individual said that April 2015 was the time to sell, not buy. Since then, the median list price has gone from $300k to almost $600k. I wonder if that person took their own advice?

The fundamentals haven't changed much in the past 3 years. NYC is still insanely expensive. Inventory is still incredibly tight. Interest rates are still low. PATH, as much as you may hate it, is still better than driving or NJ Transit or buses.

I don't have a crystal ball, I have no better idea than anyone else what will happen in 1 or 2 or 10 years. I just don't find the constant expectations of a huge crash to be particularly useful or accurate.

Posted on: 8/14 21:02
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Re: I've seen pre-construction sales but this is ridiculous! 323 7th St
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bodhipooh wrote:
If you don't mind my asking: where would you normally draw the line?


I think I draw myself right out of the market! I have never considered buying a place with negative cashflow. My last purchase in 2012 was a 4U for $300k, and was fully rented at $3,600, making it 6.94 GRM. All indications are that it would sell for well over twice that. Even accounting for renovations and rent increases, it would lose money at that price.

It's sad but true what you say about foreign investment here. What those countries need desperately is domestic investments to grow their economies, but their governments are such a mess no one believes that if they build something it won't be taken away by corruption. So both the kleptocrats and the "investor class" send their cash offshore.

Posted on: 8/14 16:15
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Re: I've seen pre-construction sales but this is ridiculous! 323 7th St
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MDM wrote:
What is propping it up are the very low interest rates due to Federal Reserve intervention, lots of foreign money coming into the USA, and Boomer generation investment capital.

The Fed is now trying to unwind its balance sheet and the Boomers are retiring (though many are staying in the work force beyond age 67). When the Boomers retire, a lot of investment money is going to dry up as it is converted into safe stuff like T-bills. A lot of real estate will hit the market as Boomers need to cash out and move to smaller (cheaper) homes / condos. Gen X is too small and Gen Y has waaay too much debt to absorb it all.

As for the foreign money... some of what is coming in doesn't care about positive returns. It is "money getting out of Dodge". If the investors only loses half of it, it is better than losing all of it back in his/her home country. Real estate is where a good chunk of that money is going.


Without a doubt, the foreign money influx is a huge part of what is keeping the runup in valuation still going. As shown in another thread here in JCLIST, it seems like some/most people don't understand (or can not fully grasp) the fear (or, mistrust) of banks in other countries and why real estate investing here, even if there is a drop in values at times, is still a preferable result over keeping money back home.

Heck, no need to look very far: over the past 10 years, the Mexican peso has lost half its value against the US dollar. For people in Mexico who have money, most usually keep it overseas, which has recently come under scrutiny by their federal government and they are now trying to seize overseas accounts of some citizens, or taxing them heavily. Any peso invested in real estate in the US 10 years would be worth almost 4 times what it would be worth today. The same is true of a bunch of Asian currencies. Really, it is hard to fault any of those people for wanting to avail themselves of the economic safety of the US.

Posted on: 8/14 15:37
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Re: I've seen pre-construction sales but this is ridiculous! 323 7th St
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brewster wrote:
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bodhipooh wrote:
Given the current DTJC market, I feel that a GRM of 100 is a little too conservative. Most of the new luxury developments in DTJC that provide a good reference point (say, developments in which condos and rentals are built by the same developer, in the same area, such as Oakman/ArtHouse or Provost Square) have GRMs of 200 - 300. Of course, that's a deep-pocketed developer, so probably not a very apt comparison.

The big question is does a property cashflow, or is it a speculation play. A bank would not lend on any of these if they were commercial and being appraised via their Cap Rate rather than comps.

FWIW, let me correct your GRM calc, it's usually done as price/(monthly rent x12), so something selling for 100x rent has a GRM of 8.3. The worst GRM I ever bought was a 10.7 3-family in 2004.

What I'd also like to know about this property is how are they getting 4 floors in an R-1 zone? Did they get a variance?


Agreed that it is all about cash flow, and perhaps the relationship one may have with a lender. Deep pocketed developers can probably afford the risk or borrowing a little easier. As for GRM, I have always been curious about that, and I know it is a metric you reference often. In the past, I have seen some real estate people use it on a yearly rent basis (as you indicated) and others as a per month rent basis. MY experience has been that most commercial investors use the yearly rent basis, while some (most?) residential small investors use the monthly basis. In the end, it's all the same, just a matter of knowing which is being referenced/used. If you don't mind my asking: where would you normally draw the line?

Posted on: 8/14 15:31
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Re: I've seen pre-construction sales but this is ridiculous! 323 7th St
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ILRie wrote:
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brewster wrote:
What I'd also like to know about this property is how are they getting 4 floors in an R-1 zone? Did they get a variance?


It actually looks like it sits in the R-5 zone, according to the city's latest zoning map. 323 7th sits near the junction of Monmouth and 7th? So yeah, in that orange colored bit which is the R-5 (note: had to zoom in like 200% to see it clearly).

So they could have 4 floors, provided 7th St has a sixty feet or more right of way; if it's less, then they'd need a variance.


Huh, was that part of that rezoning shitshow last year about the Village? I'm now R-5! Surely that increases the value of a property as a teardown tremendously, no? I've been thinking for a while my lot value was higher as a scrape job. Maybe they'll scrape some of the hideous Bayonne Boxes!

Can you elaborate or reference the sixty feet or more right of way? Is that the street width or the street plus sidewalk setback? I believe the street is the standard 40' that most of the city is.

EDIT: searching the city ordinance https://library.municode.com/nj/jersey ... inances?nodeId=CHA352ENOR there's no explicit definition, but it appears sidewalks are a "public right of way", so that the width would include them.

Posted on: 8/14 14:37
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Re: I've seen pre-construction sales but this is ridiculous! 323 7th St
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brewster wrote:
What I'd also like to know about this property is how are they getting 4 floors in an R-1 zone? Did they get a variance?


It actually looks like it sits in the R-5 zone, according to the city's latest zoning map. 323 7th sits near the junction of Monmouth and 7th? So yeah, in that orange colored bit which is the R-5 (note: had to zoom in like 200% to see it clearly).

So they could have 4 floors, provided 7th St has a sixty feet or more right of way; if it's less, then they'd need a variance.

Posted on: 8/14 14:17
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Re: I've seen pre-construction sales but this is ridiculous! 323 7th St
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bodhipooh wrote:
Given the current DTJC market, I feel that a GRM of 100 is a little too conservative. Most of the new luxury developments in DTJC that provide a good reference point (say, developments in which condos and rentals are built by the same developer, in the same area, such as Oakman/ArtHouse or Provost Square) have GRMs of 200 - 300. Of course, that's a deep-pocketed developer, so probably not a very apt comparison.

The big question is does a property cashflow, or is it a speculation play. A bank would not lend on any of these if they were commercial and being appraised via their Cap Rate rather than comps.

FWIW, let me correct your GRM calc, it's usually done as price/(monthly rent x12), so something selling for 100x rent has a GRM of 8.3. The worst GRM I ever bought was a 10.7 3-family in 2004.

What I'd also like to know about this property is how are they getting 4 floors in an R-1 zone? Did they get a variance?

Posted on: 8/14 12:36
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Re: I've seen pre-construction sales but this is ridiculous! 323 7th St
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What is propping it up are the very low interest rates due to Federal Reserve intervention, lots of foreign money coming into the USA, and Boomer generation investment capital.

The Fed is now trying to unwind its balance sheet and the Boomers are retiring (though many are staying in the work force beyond age 67). When the Boomers retire, a lot of investment money is going to dry up as it is converted into safe stuff like T-bills. A lot of real estate will hit the market as Boomers need to cash out and move to smaller (cheaper) homes / condos. Gen X is too small and Gen Y has waaay too much debt to absorb it all.

As for the foreign money... some of what is coming in doesn't care about positive returns. It is "money getting out of Dodge". If the investors only loses half of it, it is better than losing all of it back in his/her home country. Real estate is where a good chunk of that money is going.

Posted on: 8/14 9:40
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Re: I've seen pre-construction sales but this is ridiculous! 323 7th St
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brewster wrote:

Another is the GRM of these properties, the rent/purchase ratio. This place would have to rent for $18k a month to make sense as a rental, so who in their truly right mind wants to own it?


Given the current DTJC market, I feel that a GRM of 100 is a little too conservative. Most of the new luxury developments in DTJC that provide a good reference point (say, developments in which condos and rentals are built by the same developer, in the same area, such as Oakman/ArtHouse or Provost Square) have GRMs of 200 - 300. Of course, that's a deep-pocketed developer, so probably not a very apt comparison.

But, I do agree with your overall assessment. But, then again, I thought we would have seen a correction by now, so what do I know? Obviously there is enough money (or, exuberance?) in the market to keep propping up this house of cards.

Posted on: 8/14 7:54
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Re: I've seen pre-construction sales but this is ridiculous! 323 7th St
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JCman24 wrote:

Looking at zillow, there are a lot of buildings in the $1m range in the neighborhood that haven't moved despite being listed for months. I just don't see a market for a $1.8m mini-mansion around here.


If you keep looking in Zillow, you will see that (so far in 2018) there have been 33 properties sold at 1.5+ MM. At the same point last year, there had been 27 sales meeting the same criteria. The total number of sales in 2017 was 81, with the bulk of sales (34) happening in the last three months of the year. I do think there is a sizable market for these very expensive properties.

Posted on: 8/14 7:43
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Re: I've seen pre-construction sales but this is ridiculous! 323 7th St
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hero69 wrote:
why is this a bubble? please explain.


There's lots of signs. One is this kind of pre-construction sale where the seller is trying to get it sold while the market is still hot, and the buyers often think they can make money just holding the property with the downpayment till completion and then they can flip it for profit in a double closing. Another is the GRM of these properties, the rent/purchase ratio. This place would have to rent for $18k a month to make sense as a rental, so who in their truly right mind wants to own it?


Is there a restriction on turning this place into a multi-unit building? Looking at zillow, there are a lot of buildings in the $1m range in the neighborhood that haven't moved despite being listed for months. I just don't see a market for a $1.8m mini-mansion around here.

Posted on: 8/13 23:59
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Re: I've seen pre-construction sales but this is ridiculous! 323 7th St
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hero69 wrote:
why is this a bubble? please explain.


There's lots of signs. One is this kind of pre-construction sale where the seller is trying to get it sold while the market is still hot, and the buyers often think they can make money just holding the property with the downpayment till completion and then they can flip it for profit in a double closing. Another is the GRM of these properties, the rent/purchase ratio. This place would have to rent for $18k a month to make sense as a rental, so who in their truly right mind wants to own it?

Posted on: 8/13 21:36
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Re: I've seen pre-construction sales but this is ridiculous! 323 7th St
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brewster wrote:
The listing for 323 7th St popped up in my Zillow feed. 4br, 5 bath SFR, $1,850,000. Beautiful pics of interior and exterior, and currently an empty lot!


This is a sign we are approaching the next property crash.
why is this a bubble? please explain.

Posted on: 8/13 20:04
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Re: I've seen pre-construction sales but this is ridiculous! 323 7th St
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brewster wrote:
The listing for 323 7th St popped up in my Zillow feed. 4br, 5 bath SFR, $1,850,000. Beautiful pics of interior and exterior, and currently an empty lot!


This is a sign we are approaching the next property crash.


One sign among many...

Posted on: 8/13 16:44
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Re: I've seen pre-construction sales but this is ridiculous! 323 7th St
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brewster wrote:
The listing for 323 7th St popped up in my Zillow feed. 4br, 5 bath SFR, $1,850,000. Beautiful pics of interior and exterior, and currently an empty lot!


This is a sign we are approaching the next property crash.

Posted on: 8/13 16:36
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I've seen pre-construction sales but this is ridiculous! 323 7th St
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The listing for 323 7th St popped up in my Zillow feed. 4br, 5 bath SFR, $1,850,000. Beautiful pics of interior and exterior, and currently an empty lot! Wow. They don't let the cat out of the bag till the final line of the long description: "Estimated completion late Spring/early Summer 2019. "

Posted on: 8/13 14:53
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