Homicides and Shootings Both Up in Newark in 2015

Re: 24th Homicide Today in JC - 905 Bergen Ave at 5:50pm

#54

Home away from home

Joined:
2012/8/6 22:56
Last Login :
2019/11/14 1:56

Group:
Registered Users

Posts: 1058

Quote:

DanL wrote:
and still the city remains silent on a shop keeper murdered on Bergen Ave, near Journal Square.

What are they supposed to say?

Will the mayor or police chief making an announcement magically produce more evidence, or more witnesses? Perhaps convince the shooter to surrender?

Quote:

has our city lost a sense of compassion for our people?

Uh... no? Why would you think that?

Quote:

only a few years ago, a neighborhood mourned a shopkeeper and local pols joined in a candle light vigil.

There's a memorial at this shop, too.

http://www.nj.com/hudson/index.ssf/20 ... _store_owner_fatally.html

There was also a memorial service for him in Palisades Park, where he lived.
http://www.northjersey.com/community- ... others-1.1480548?page=all

Posted on: 2016/1/3 23:18

DanL

Re: 24th Homicide Today in JC - 905 Bergen Ave at 5:50pm

#53

Home away from home

Joined:
2004/2/6 23:13
Last Login :
2021/7/30 1:08

From Jersey City

Group:
Registered Users

Posts: 1225

and still the city remains silent on a shop keeper murdered on Bergen Ave, near Journal Square.

at a least the administration expressed thanks that the baby shot last saturday will recover, but took no ownership instead blaming a national epidemic.

has our city lost a sense of compassion for our people?

only a few years ago, a neighborhood mourned a shopkeeper and local pols joined in a candle light vigil.

Hundreds attend candlelit vigil for slain Downtown Jersey City deli owner

http://www.nj.com/hudson/index.ssf/20 ... ttend_candlelit_vigi.html

Posted on: 2016/1/2 18:18

Stringer

Re: 24th Homicide Today in JC - 905 Bergen Ave at 5:50pm

#52

Home away from home

Joined:
2012/2/20 18:20
Last Login :
2023/11/26 22:12

Group:
Registered Users

Posts: 2719

Homicides and Shootings Both Up in Newark in 2015

New Jersey’s most-populous city to refocus its crime-fighting efforts

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL By Kate King

Jan. 1, 2016 7:46 p.m. ET

In Jersey City, the state’s second-largest city, there were 25 homicides in 2015, the same as the previous year. Overall, major crime decreased 8% last year, compared with 2014, according to city records.

Mayor Steven Fulop said he is focused on reducing shootings and has told Hudson County Prosecutor Esther Suarez that he would like to see longer prison sentences for people charged with gun and other violent crimes.

“Some of the people who have either been shot or were arrested for doing the shootings had previous gun charges,” Mr. Fulop said. “There’s a small number of people doing a disproportionate amount of the gun violence.”

Posted on: 2016/1/2 1:22

Re: 24th Homicide Today in JC - 905 Bergen Ave at 5:50pm

#51

Home away from home

Joined:
2006/11/8 20:49
Last Login :
2022/4/26 19:42

From Chilltown, NJ

Group:
Registered Users

Posts: 836

Quote:

bodhipooh wrote:
Quote:

AlexC wrote:
Legalizing abortions in 1973 is one theory about the drop in crime in the 90's:

"The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Crime".[4] Donohue and Levitt point to the fact that males aged 18 to 24 are most likely to commit crimes. Data indicates that crime in the United States started to decline in 1992. Donohue and Levitt suggest that the absence of unwanted children, following legalization in 1973, led to a reduction in crime 18 years later, starting in 1992 and dropping sharply in 1995. These would have been the peak crime-committing years of the unborn children.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legalized_abortion_and_crime_effect

This theory was featured/highlighted in the Freakonomics documentary. I think many people find it appalling to even try and connect the two, but it would seem to be a logical link. For the religious right, abortion is an unseemly and unforgivable choice, but what community/public good is achieved or furthered by forcing women into an unwanted pregnancy and birth? Yet, on the other hand, the very groups that oppose abortions are also usually the "tough on crime" groups. It would seem logical that allowing women to not have unwanted babies would reduce the amount of maladjusted individuals who grow up to become criminals.

I don't think it was one factor that caused the rise or decline but numerous on both ends creating a sort of perfect storm of events. The theory I find most interesting is the link between lead based paint and crime.

Posted on: 2015/12/31 7:42

Re: 24th Homicide Today in JC - 905 Bergen Ave at 5:50pm

#50

Home away from home

Joined:
2006/11/8 20:49
Last Login :
2022/4/26 19:42

From Chilltown, NJ

Group:
Registered Users

Posts: 836

Quote:

...yes, I'm not denying that. I'm pointing out that they only declined slightly during his term; most of the decline happened years after he left office; and in general, the trend mostly matches the changes in other crimes.

Cherry-picking a handful of years does not change anything about that.

How is it slightly? It declined by 685 car thefts from his first to last year and for the same amount of years Healy took office it declined by 510. Of course present day statistics are going to be much lower then when Cunningham was in office because of the National decline. In 2001 the National trend was a slight rise in crime not a decline. I don't get why you keep bringing up statistics from present day? My point remains the same auto theft was on the rise defying what was considered normal at the time and showed a clear drop after he went after chop shops.

Quote:

...and like I said before, that explanation does not wash. It doesn't explain the decade of reductions in robberies (and other crimes) prior to 9/11; it does not explain the gradual reductions in robberies after 9/11. I know of no evidence that there has been a 14-year shortage in drugs on the streets. (By the way, tighter supplies normally lead to higher prices and higher profits, not lower profits.)

To be honest I don't think you are actually understanding anything I am saying. You keep thinking I don't understand crime has been on a downward trend since the 90s, I do and never told you otherwise. All I explained was the reason it rose from 2001 to 2005. Robbery did not begin to decline again until 2006.

Just because you know of no evidence of a drug shortage does not mean it did not happen. All you had to do was pick up a news paper or watch the news it was no secret. The only way to bring drugs from NYC to JC was either the GWB, Holland Tunnel, Lincoln Tunnel or Path train. All had extra security after September 11th making it harder to cross with drugs. People were being searching on the Path and vehicles were being searched at bridges and tunnels because they were terror targets. I am sure you remember that just put two and two together. Large shipments were being seized by accident from all the extra security and resources.

I have no idea where you got 14 years from, I never said 14 years. I only told you JC went from being a secondary market of NYC to a secondary market of Newark a few years later. As for you saying tighter supplies lead to higher prices and profits that couldn't be further from the truth for low level drug dealers.

Think of it like low level drug dealers work at a mom and pop store and their main supplier is constantly missing shipments and when the shipment does finally show up they want higher prices for the product. You might think we'll just pass the cost to the consumer but the problem is the larger chain stores that buy in bulk and receive a steeper discount from the suppliers can afford to keep the prices competitive driving the small mom and pop stores out of business.

Quote:

Oh? Let's look at NYC's robbery statistics. Keeping in mind these are absolute numbers and not rates:

Lmao I have no idea why you gave me all those statistics on crime in NYC it has absolutely nothing to do with what I said. I said people in JC were robbing people in JC not that people in JC were going to NYC and robbing people. Like I said I think you aren't understanding what I write.

Quote:

I know of no evidence to support this. Again, if you have more cops in hot spots, that can help. If the cops are not visible, though, I don't see how it would even be a momentary deterrent to a criminal. At best, it might reduce response rates -- but even that won't be great, as their being out of uniform may complicate a situation.

This one maybe I wasn't clear so maybe it is my fault you did not understand it. I did not mean ALL police should be in plain clothes and unmarked cars. I was saying more should be used, they already are. The benefit of that is if you are going to commit a crime you are looking for squad cars which are easy to spot and if you see one you simply wait until they pass before committing a crime. An unmarked car blends in and criminals have their guard down so it easier to catch them. The narcotics unit, robbery squad and a few others use this method. I am just saying if we were to get more officers I think adding to this method would be more productive then what she suggested.

Posted on: 2015/12/31 7:12

Re: 24th Homicide Today in JC - 905 Bergen Ave at 5:50pm

#49

Home away from home

Joined:
2012/8/6 22:56
Last Login :
2019/11/14 1:56

Group:
Registered Users

Posts: 1058

Quote:

JerseyCityNj wrote:
[quote]
Clearly auto theft was on the rise for three years before he took office. Any body that was in Downtown at the times probably clearly remembers how bad the car theft problem was before numerous chop shops were shut down.

...yes, I'm not denying that. I'm pointing out that they only declined slightly during his term; most of the decline happened years after he left office; and in general, the trend mostly matches the changes in other crimes.

Cherry-picking a handful of years does not change anything about that.

Quote:

Also the robbery rates at the time we're caused by 9-11 anti terrorism efforts in NYC causing a shortage of drugs on the streets and higher prices and less profits for dealers. An article came out about this also at the time.

...and like I said before, that explanation does not wash. It doesn't explain the decade of reductions in robberies (and other crimes) prior to 9/11; it does not explain the gradual reductions in robberies after 9/11. I know of no evidence that there has been a 14-year shortage in drugs on the streets. (By the way, tighter supplies normally lead to higher prices and higher profits, not lower profits.)

Quote:

Robbery didn't start to follow the national average of decline until NYC went from JC main supplier until Newark did. Heroin became the main drug sold in open markets in the same way Crack was the main drug during the 80s and 90s. Heroin was being smuggled into Newark's port and airport at a much larger rate at this point. This made drug dealing a lot more profitable again.

Oh? Let's look at NYC's robbery statistics. Keeping in mind these are absolute numbers and not rates:

2000 - 32,562
2001 - 28,202
2002 - 27,229
2003 - 25,989
2004 - 24,373
2005 - 24,722
2006 - 23,739
2007 - 21,809
2008 - 22,401
2009 - 18,601
2010 - 19,486
2011 - 19,717
2012 - 20,144
2013 - 19,128
2014 - 16,539

Your narrative clearly does not fit this downward trend. Burglaries follow the same trend; grand larceny was mostly flat.

What about felony dangerous drug possession?

2000 - 38088
2001 - 30743
2002 - 29692
2003 - 24076
2004 - 25824
2005 - 27391
2006 - 29516
2007 - 31459
2008 - 28936
2009 - 26025
2010 - 22913
2011 - 21305
2012 - 19680
2013 - 19571
2014 - 17113

There was a massive drop between 2000 and 2001, most of which happened before 9/11; some minor fluctuations until 2009; since then, it has fallen quite a bit. This does not sound like either a major law enforcement effort, or a reaction to 9/11, or major fluctuations in street drug prices.

There is a correlation between the drop in crime in the 90s and the abatement of the crack epidemic, but yet again causality is not clear. It is highly unlikely, however, that there has been a consistent 20-year decline in crack use. More likely is that whatever civilizing forces has brought crime rates down was also responsible for a reduction in crack use.

Quote:

Never said I agreed with her cops walking the beat would help. Actually I think plainclothes officers in unmarked vehicles are more effective.

I know of no evidence to support this. Again, if you have more cops in hot spots, that can help. If the cops are not visible, though, I don't see how it would even be a momentary deterrent to a criminal. At best, it might reduce response rates -- but even that won't be great, as their being out of uniform may complicate a situation.

Posted on: 2015/12/31 1:33

Yvonne

Re: 24th Homicide Today in JC - 905 Bergen Ave at 5:50pm

#48

Home away from home

Joined:
2004/6/17 2:16
Last Login :
3/21 23:34

Group:
Registered Users

Posts: 5375

The population increase took place downtown, the reason Ward E was physically reduced. These shootings are not in Ward E.

Posted on: 2015/12/31 1:00

Re: 24th Homicide Today in JC - 905 Bergen Ave at 5:50pm

#47

Home away from home

Joined:
2006/11/8 20:49
Last Login :
2022/4/26 19:42

From Chilltown, NJ

Group:
Registered Users

Posts: 836

Quote:

Dolomiti wrote:
Quote:
Healy wasn't a great mayor but he even had a few major gang bust during his administration and that lead to a decline in murders once he figured that out.

Yet again, the numbers do not bear that out.

Well you have to use common sense, if you arrest gang members that have committed murders during a gang war you are stopping future murders. No statistic can show that because it can no longer happen, you prevented it. I could give you numerous examples over the last 15 years but that would be too time consuming to search, copy and paste so many articles.

I will how ever give you recent examples. You do remember the map the Jersey Journal put out during the recent back and forth of murders correct? The map had a murder on Winfield and Ocean, shooting on Neptune and Ocean and another murder on Neptune and Old Bergen. All of these are a block away from each other, now Google Map the North West corner of Winfield and Ocean on the side of the pharmacy you will see blue graffiti that reads "Boise Bad Azz" with all the Bs crossed out disrespecting Bloods and "H52" for Hoover 52 Crips. Now their was another murder on Van Nostrand and Ocean if you Google Map the South East corner of Van Nostrand and MLK you will see "SMM" written on a power box which for Sex Money Murder a Blood set. Third example a shooting on Myrtle and Randolph Google Map one block over on Myrtle and Arlington on the North East corner on the sidewalk the graffiti says "Buck Gr52ve". Groove is what Hoover Crips call themselves as a nickname they replace the letter "O" with their set number. See how gang wars play a big roll in the Murders now?

Posted on: 2015/12/31 0:38

fat-ass-bike

Re: 24th Homicide Today in JC - 905 Bergen Ave at 5:50pm

#46

Home away from home

Joined:
2006/11/13 18:42
Last Login :
2022/2/28 7:31

From 280 Grove Street

Group:
Registered Users

Posts: 4192

I don't know why some are using data from years ago without noting that we have had a population explosion in Jersey City. This would cause crime figures to increase, however the ratio of crime to population might give a true and informative insight on how good or bad crime rates really are.

Resized Image

Posted on: 2015/12/31 0:18

My humor is for the silent blue collar majority - If my posts offend, slander or you deem inappropriate and seek deletion, contact the webmaster for jurisdiction.

Re: 24th Homicide Today in JC - 905 Bergen Ave at 5:50pm

#45

Home away from home

Joined:
2006/11/8 20:49
Last Login :
2022/4/26 19:42

From Chilltown, NJ

Group:
Registered Users

Posts: 836

Quote:

Dolomiti wrote:
Quote:

JerseyCityNj wrote:
For example when Cunningham took office car theft was on the rise in JC particularly in Downtown. The way he was able to address this was instead of going after the juveniles and young adults who were simply being caught and released when caught was to go after the chop shops. Once he did this car theft continued on a downward trend..... [Another example] we got an uptick in robberies after 9-11....

Yeah, about that.

The trend in auto thefts over the years is clear, but the causality? Not so much. Auto thefts dropped dramatically between 2000 and 2009, but then flattened out at around 800. The most substantial drops happened years after Cunningham left office. Crediting Cunningham for this outcome doesn't make sense.

98-2139
99-2362
00-2434
01-2413 (Cunningham takes office in July)
02-2296
03-2059
04-1728

Clearly auto theft was on the rise for three years before he took office. Any body that was in Downtown at the times probably clearly remembers how bad the car theft problem was before numerous chop shops were shut down.

Also the robbery rates at the time we're caused by 9-11 anti terrorism efforts in NYC causing a shortage of drugs on the streets and higher prices and less profits for dealers. An article came out about this also at the time. Robbery didn't start to follow the national average of decline until NYC went from JC main supplier until Newark did. Heroin became the main drug sold in open markets in the same way Crack was the main drug during the 80s and 90s. Heroin was being smuggled into Newark's port and airport at a much larger rate at this point. This made drug dealing a lot more profitable again.

Quote:

And again, I'm arguing not against any strategies at all. I'm saying we need to collect and analyze the evidence; when we do that, we see that Yvonne's simplistic "put cops on the streets!" idea does not work.

Never said I agreed with her cops walking the beat would help. Actually I think plainclothes officers in unmarked vehicles are more effective.

Posted on: 2015/12/31 0:01

Re: 24th Homicide Today in JC - 905 Bergen Ave at 5:50pm

#44

Home away from home

Joined:
2012/8/6 22:56
Last Login :
2019/11/14 1:56

Group:
Registered Users

Posts: 1058

Quote:

jsqfunk wrote:
A tax paying, business owner was killed in the middle of the day on a busy street

Does anyone have any f'n clue what is going on with this case?

There is no news.

Posted on: 2015/12/30 23:54

Re: 24th Homicide Today in JC - 905 Bergen Ave at 5:50pm

#43

Just can't stay away

Joined:
2007/5/30 0:05
Last Login :
2018/11/7 2:57

Group:
Registered Users

Posts: 124

F the snow
F abortions
A tax paying, business owner was killed in the middle of the day on a busy street

Does anyone have any f'n clue what is going on with this case?

Posted on: 2015/12/30 20:22

Monroe

Re: 24th Homicide Today in JC - 905 Bergen Ave at 5:50pm

#42

Home away from home

Joined:
2013/5/15 14:11
Last Login :
2020/10/5 21:44

Group:
Registered Users

Posts: 4652

Quote:

bodhipooh wrote:
Quote:

AlexC wrote:
Legalizing abortions in 1973 is one theory about the drop in crime in the 90's:

"The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Crime".[4] Donohue and Levitt point to the fact that males aged 18 to 24 are most likely to commit crimes. Data indicates that crime in the United States started to decline in 1992. Donohue and Levitt suggest that the absence of unwanted children, following legalization in 1973, led to a reduction in crime 18 years later, starting in 1992 and dropping sharply in 1995. These would have been the peak crime-committing years of the unborn children.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legalized_abortion_and_crime_effect

This theory was featured/highlighted in the Freakonomics documentary. I think many people find it appalling to even try and connect the two, but it would seem to be a logical link. For the religious right, abortion is an unseemly and unforgivable choice, but what community/public good is achieved or furthered by forcing women into an unwanted pregnancy and birth? Yet, on the other hand, the very groups that oppose abortions are also usually the "tough on crime" groups. It would seem logical that allowing women to not have unwanted babies would reduce the amount of maladjusted individuals who grow up to become criminals.

Sadly, the fact that the children that are brought to term in the inner city are raised in poverty, since the 75% rate of unwed mothers and absentee fathers leads to disaster in many or most cases.

Posted on: 2015/12/30 18:00

bodhipooh

Re: 24th Homicide Today in JC - 905 Bergen Ave at 5:50pm

#41

Home away from home

Joined:
2008/8/12 18:31
Last Login :
2020/4/26 22:05

Group:
Registered Users

Posts: 3932

Quote:

AlexC wrote:
Legalizing abortions in 1973 is one theory about the drop in crime in the 90's:

"The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Crime".[4] Donohue and Levitt point to the fact that males aged 18 to 24 are most likely to commit crimes. Data indicates that crime in the United States started to decline in 1992. Donohue and Levitt suggest that the absence of unwanted children, following legalization in 1973, led to a reduction in crime 18 years later, starting in 1992 and dropping sharply in 1995. These would have been the peak crime-committing years of the unborn children.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legalized_abortion_and_crime_effect

This theory was featured/highlighted in the Freakonomics documentary. I think many people find it appalling to even try and connect the two, but it would seem to be a logical link. For the religious right, abortion is an unseemly and unforgivable choice, but what community/public good is achieved or furthered by forcing women into an unwanted pregnancy and birth? Yet, on the other hand, the very groups that oppose abortions are also usually the "tough on crime" groups. It would seem logical that allowing women to not have unwanted babies would reduce the amount of maladjusted individuals who grow up to become criminals.

Posted on: 2015/12/30 17:53

Re: 24th Homicide Today in JC - 905 Bergen Ave at 5:50pm

#40

Home away from home

Joined:
2012/8/6 22:56
Last Login :
2019/11/14 1:56

Group:
Registered Users

Posts: 1058

Quote:

Yvonne wrote:
There was a sharp decrease crime in the first four months of 2014 due to the massive amounts of snow on the ground. That was the winter that Fulop apologize for not being able to clear the roads. During that four months. There was a significant drop in crime. It was not due to his policies. As we can see this year, The true numbers start to reveal themselves.

Comedy gold!

In case you forgot, JC got totally dumped on in January, February and March of 2015. According to your own theory, the first half of this year should also have low crime rates.

The weather has been abnormally warm and snowless the past few months. Per your own theory, that should lead to abnormally high crime rates. Was there a secret crime wave that I didn't hear about?

I doubt it. Looking at November and December COMPSTATs going back to 2010, there are almost never any homicides in those months; assaults are consistent (around 55); burglaries and robberies dropped about every year; motor vehicle theft, including attempts, followed a similar trajectory.

And of course, you show no indication whatsoever of sitting down with 5 years worth of COMPSTAT reports, and cross-referencing it with monthly snowfall and temperature reports.

Weather may account for a small drop in crime. It cannot justify your anti-Fulop bias.

Posted on: 2015/12/30 17:39

Re: 24th Homicide Today in JC - 905 Bergen Ave at 5:50pm

#39

Home away from home

Joined:
2012/8/6 22:56
Last Login :
2019/11/14 1:56

Group:
Registered Users

Posts: 1058

Quote:

AlexC wrote:
Legalizing abortions in 1973 is one theory about the drop in crime in the 90's:

IIRC, that theory has been largely discredited, and some of the criticisms discussed in the Wikipedia entry.

Posted on: 2015/12/30 17:03

Yvonne

Re: 24th Homicide Today in JC - 905 Bergen Ave at 5:50pm

#38

Home away from home

Joined:
2004/6/17 2:16
Last Login :
3/21 23:34

Group:
Registered Users

Posts: 5375

There was a sharp decrease crime in the first four months of 2014 due to the massive amounts of snow on the ground. That was the winter that Fulop apologize for not being able to clear the roads. During that four months. There was a significant drop in crime. It was not due to his policies. As we can see this year, The true numbers start to reveal themselves.

Posted on: 2015/12/30 14:54

AlexC

Re: 24th Homicide Today in JC - 905 Bergen Ave at 5:50pm

#37

Home away from home

Joined:
2006/9/14 18:57
Last Login :
2020/1/27 22:17

From Hamilton Park

Group:
Registered Users

Posts: 1053

Legalizing abortions in 1973 is one theory about the drop in crime in the 90's:

"The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Crime".[4] Donohue and Levitt point to the fact that males aged 18 to 24 are most likely to commit crimes. Data indicates that crime in the United States started to decline in 1992. Donohue and Levitt suggest that the absence of unwanted children, following legalization in 1973, led to a reduction in crime 18 years later, starting in 1992 and dropping sharply in 1995. These would have been the peak crime-committing years of the unborn children.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legalized_abortion_and_crime_effect

Posted on: 2015/12/30 14:32

Re: 24th Homicide Today in JC - 905 Bergen Ave at 5:50pm

#36

Just can't stay away

Joined:
2007/5/30 0:05
Last Login :
2018/11/7 2:57

Group:
Registered Users

Posts: 124

regarding this particular case, it is insane given the following
Location and circumstances, busy store, busy street, daytime that there are no suspects
Currently there is an electronic sign asking for help
Cameras?
Did the police even interview people working in nearby stores?

Posted on: 2015/12/30 14:26

Re: 24th Homicide Today in JC - 905 Bergen Ave at 5:50pm

#35

Home away from home

Joined:
2012/8/6 22:56
Last Login :
2019/11/14 1:56

Group:
Registered Users

Posts: 1058

Quote:

Yvonne wrote:
I was watching one of the NYC's new show which featured the story about the child being injured. The reporter said there were 87 shooting in JC this year, compared to 76 last year. Yes, shootings are at an increase. There is no police presence.

*rolleyes*

At the end of 2014, Fulop put out a press release, stating that shootings were down 17.5% city-wide. Crime was down in every major category. Did you congratulate him for contributing to those outcomes? After all, if he's to blame for an unconfirmed increase (with unknown causality), why doesn't he get credit for a drop?

http://www.cityofjerseycity.com/uploa ... ine%20Press%20Release.pdf

Posted on: 2015/12/30 2:59

Re: 24th Homicide Today in JC - 905 Bergen Ave at 5:50pm

#34

Home away from home

Joined:
2012/8/6 22:56
Last Login :
2019/11/14 1:56

Group:
Registered Users

Posts: 1058

Quote:

JerseyCityNj wrote:
For example when Cunningham took office car theft was on the rise in JC particularly in Downtown. The way he was able to address this was instead of going after the juveniles and young adults who were simply being caught and released when caught was to go after the chop shops. Once he did this car theft continued on a downward trend..... [Another example] we got an uptick in robberies after 9-11....

Yeah, about that.

The trend in auto thefts over the years is clear, but the causality? Not so much. Auto thefts dropped dramatically between 2000 and 2009, but then flattened out at around 800. The most substantial drops happened years after Cunningham left office. Crediting Cunningham for this outcome doesn't make sense.

We also see big drops in other crimes during those time frames -- e.g. rapes, robberies, assaults, burglaries, all dropped roughly in half, as did the overall crime rate. Did the city also target rapists and fences for stolen goods? Can we attribute this to changes in LEO methods and mayoral announcements, too?

By the way, I don't have 1999-2000 numbers, but the 2000-2013 numbers don't suggest Cunningham made a dent in robberies. It wasn't until 2009 that the numbers dropped precipitously:

2001: 1,301
2002: 1,381
2003: 1,416
2004: 1,418
2005: 1,642 (Healy's 1st year in office)
2006: 1,553
2007: 1,248
2008: 1,252
2009: 871
2010: 943
2011: 961
2012: 880
2013: 717

http://www.city-data.com/crime/crime- ... Jersey.html#ixzz3vlVUUEFR

So unless someone developed and/or implemented a fantastic anti-robbery policing tactic in 2008-2009, it is not clear that a specific law enforcement method is responsible for what we see.

And of course, that's a big problem here. We're not dealing with a type of scientific experiment where we can control the variables, or directly observe LEO tactics and draw a clean empirical conclusion. We have to look at dozens of cities, of different sizes, with different training, different resources, and different local challenges, and make our best guess about what works.

Quote:

He didn't just let crimes go on with out forming strategies to adapt and combat them as they happened.

Yes, but it takes a lot of research and knowledge to figure out what works -- and few LEO tactics seem to help. You certainly cannot look at one city, even over the course of 15 years, and draw definitive conclusions about the causal factors in crime rates.

And again, I'm arguing not against any strategies at all. I'm saying we need to collect and analyze the evidence; when we do that, we see that Yvonne's simplistic "put cops on the streets!" idea does not work.

Quote:

He also targeted the gangs because one gang at the time that was new to JC "Sex Money Murder" was responsible for a lot of the shootings and murders....

That's a nice theory, but the numbers don't seem to bear that out. Again, homicides did not drop during or immediately after his tenure; between 2001 and 2015, Jersey City averages 23 homicides per year; and a significant portion of homicides are connected with domestic violence or a garden-variety fight escalating to a homicide.

I.e. I don't see any evidence that specific LEO tactics genuinely influenced JC homicide rates.

Quote:

In general increases and decreases in murders over the last 10 years have to do with gang wars....

I'm not aware of the slightest bit of evidence for that -- nor does it explain why crime rates started dropping nationally in the early 1990s.

We should also recall that despite a lot of low-quality media reporting, crime rates did NOT shoot through the roof nationally in 2015. Crime rates went up in a handful of cities (and fell in others), and almost all of those increases were moderate. Perceptions about crime are, as per usual, largely out of whack with reality.

Quote:

Healy wasn't a great mayor but he even had a few major gang bust during his administration and that lead to a decline in murders once he figured that out.

Yet again, the numbers do not bear that out. JC homicides, with rates in parentheses:

2001: 25 (10.3)
2002: 21 (8.6)
2003: 24 (9.9)
2004: 23 (9.6)
2005: 38 (15.9)
2006: 22 (9.2)
2007: 20 (8.3)
2008: 25 (10.3)
2009: 28 (11.6)
2010: 25 (10.2)
2011: 18 (7.2)
2012: 11 (4.4)
2013: 20 (7.8)
2014: 23 (8.7)
2015: 24

There is no clear trend here, and it is very clear that 2011 and 2012 were outliers (as was 2005).

As for Fulop seeming like he doesn't care, I'm not sure what you think he's supposed to do. Subjectively, I certainly don't recall Healy doing anything more than Fulop. And frankly, I'm not interested in poring over 15 years of mayoral press releases to see who made more pointless, feel-good, I-look-like-I'm-doing-something statements. Especially since those pronouncements do not seem to do anything to actual crime rates.

Posted on: 2015/12/30 2:49

Yvonne

Re: 24th Homicide Today in JC - 905 Bergen Ave at 5:50pm

#33

Home away from home

Joined:
2004/6/17 2:16
Last Login :
3/21 23:34

Group:
Registered Users

Posts: 5375

I was watching one of the NYC's new show which featured the story about the child being injured. The reporter said there were 87 shooting in JC this year, compared to 76 last year. Yes, shootings are at an increase. There is no police presence.

Posted on: 2015/12/30 0:24

Re: 24th Homicide Today in JC - 905 Bergen Ave at 5:50pm

#32

Home away from home

Joined:
2006/11/8 20:49
Last Login :
2022/4/26 19:42

From Chilltown, NJ

Group:
Registered Users

Posts: 836

Quote:

Dolomiti wrote:
Just to be clear about something....

No one truly understands why crime rates rise and fall. No one.

Community policing improves citizen satisfaction with the police, but there is no solid evidence that it reduces crime.

To wit: In JC, the number of homicides averaged 24 per year since 2001. Cunningham (2001-2004) averaged 23 per year. In 2005, homicides increased to 38; then it fell back to 22 in 2006.

Similarly, it was 18 in 2011, then 11 in 2012, then 23 in 2013. I don't recall any major changes in city or police policies that explains these fluctuations. Anyone got a theory?

Sure, the city can waste money making itself look busy. But it's not clear that, other than operate the police department as efficiently and cleanly as possible, the city can actually do anything to reduce crime rates.

Yes crime rates are complex and it is hard to explain increases and decreases in general but usually they have local reasons for small increases and decreases in certain catagories that can not be ignored. For example when Cunningham took office car theft was on the rise in JC particularly in Downtown. The way he was able to address this was instead of going after the juveniles and young adults who were simply being caught and released when caught was to go after the chop shops. Once he did this car theft continued on a downward trend.

He also had police focus on the main high crime area of Greenville installing CCTV on trouble corners and having them monitored to the point a crime could be called in while in progress cutting down response time. The cameras worked so well the way they were being used the criminals didn't operate as often in these areas and tried moving to the side blocks. So when they adapted so did his strategy, undercover detectives patrolled and watched these areas while the cameras watched the MLK, Ocean and Bergen. When he was mayor their was far less murders in Greenville. The whole mood in Greenville was different at the time.

He didn't just let crimes go on with out forming strategies to adapt and combat them as they happened. One of the main things people liked about him was he would be upfront and inform the public of why certain crimes were happening and how he planned to combat them. For example we got an uptick in robberies after 9-11 which were a result of drug dealers not making any money because of anti terrorism efforts were affecting the flow and price of drugs being brought to NYC which at the time was the main supplier for drugs in JC. The robbery rate still rose but it was obvious he was doing all he could and most importantly keeping the public updated.

He also targeted the gangs because one gang at the time that was new to JC "Sex Money Murder" was responsible for a lot of the shootings and murders. Fast forward now to present day their are way more gangs in the streets that weren't around when he was a live that really started to take hold in 2004 and 2005. West Coast based Blood and Crip sets along with NY based now are the main people committing murders in the city.

In general increases and decreases in murders over the last 10 years have to do with gang wars and decline when someone important in a gang is arrested and increase when someone important in the gangs is murdered or released from prison. The gang related murders usually follow semi predictable paterns. That is why people are upset with Fulop he isn't adapting or changing his strategy or going after the root of these murders, gangs. He is also remaining silent and giving off a vibe he doesnt care. We have had a few instances where the gangs have gone back and forth unchecked a month or two straight during the Full administration and their hasn't been one major gang bust since he has taken office. Healy wasn't a great mayor but he even had a few major gang bust during his administration and that lead to a decline in murders once he figured that out. A three year straight increase in murder hasn't happened in JC in decades and I think everyone can agree we do not want a fourth year of increased murders.

Posted on: 2015/12/30 0:18

Re: 24th Homicide Today in JC - 905 Bergen Ave at 5:50pm

#31

Just can't stay away

Joined:
2007/5/30 0:05
Last Login :
2018/11/7 2:57

Group:
Registered Users

Posts: 124

Nothing

Posted on: 2015/12/29 18:33

Re: 24th Homicide Today in JC - 905 Bergen Ave at 5:50pm

#30

Just can't stay away

Joined:
2007/5/30 0:05
Last Login :
2018/11/7 2:57

Group:
Registered Users

Posts: 124

Either my Google skills are way off or it has been a week without any report of the description of the killer... Man, woman, anything???!!

Posted on: 2015/12/28 15:34

HeightsBrat

Re: 24th Homicide Today in JC - 905 Bergen Ave at 5:50pm

#29

Home away from home

Joined:
2011/12/12 0:13
Last Login :
2018/7/28 23:29

From Right here!

Group:
Registered Users

Posts: 847

Quote:

Lima17 wrote:
Quote:

iGreg wrote:
The amount of cops on construction duty is a fcking joke.

I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure by law cops need to be there. I also think it's the contractor paying for the cops overtime. Theyre not there as part of their regular duty.

You are correct Lima17. You will see police at construction sites & major road works throughout the state. The construction company, or whomever, then pays the city ($5 per officer) to act as administrator.

Also the rules governing how long an officer can work at a site, per day, is monitered.

Posted on: 2015/12/27 13:58

Re: 24th Homicide Today in JC - 905 Bergen Ave at 5:50pm

#28

Just can't stay away

Joined:
2007/5/30 0:05
Last Login :
2018/11/7 2:57

Group:
Registered Users

Posts: 124

have descriptions of the killer(s) been reported?

Posted on: 2015/12/27 3:30