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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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JC_Man wrote:

Which past two winter storms would that be - the (non)- Blizzard of 2015. How quickly we forget.


I said winter forecasts.. not winter storms. NOAA had last winter as milder than usual. These guys had it much much colder than normal.

As for the two winter storms.. the prediction was a right turn out to sea.. which is what happened, dumping snow only on eastern Long Island.

Anyway.. we will all have a pretty good idea what is going to happen on Friday.

Posted on: 2015/9/29 23:47
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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JC_Man wrote:
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MDM wrote:
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JCMan8 wrote:
What are the odds that "the bad" actually happens? I'm thinking very small.



Not small. There is a lot of warmer than normal water off the East coast. There are a number of factors with high pressure systems over North America. The models are showing two possibilities:

* The storm takes are hard right turn and goes out to sea.

* It combines with another low (think 'Perfect Storm') and nails us with a combination of a lot of rain (7+ inches), storm surge, and very high winds. The intensity of each will depend on the final track.

Major hurricanes are rare here, but they do happen. Last was the 1938 storm that wrecked Long Island. In 1821 one hit that drove storm surge clear up to Canal street in Manhattan.

The sources I am using are the ones that got Sandy and the past two winter forecasts correct.


Which past two winter storms would that be - the (non)- Blizzard of 2015. How quickly we forget.


Exactly. At a minimum I don't pay any attention at all to these forecasts until 2 days before, as they are entirely unreliable/subject to change this far back. And as you pointed out, they can be dead wrong even the night before.

Posted on: 2015/9/29 23:42
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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Quote:

MDM wrote:
Quote:

JCMan8 wrote:
What are the odds that "the bad" actually happens? I'm thinking very small.



Not small. There is a lot of warmer than normal water off the East coast. There are a number of factors with high pressure systems over North America. The models are showing two possibilities:

* The storm takes are hard right turn and goes out to sea.

* It combines with another low (think 'Perfect Storm') and nails us with a combination of a lot of rain (7+ inches), storm surge, and very high winds. The intensity of each will depend on the final track.

Major hurricanes are rare here, but they do happen. Last was the 1938 storm that wrecked Long Island. In 1821 one hit that drove storm surge clear up to Canal street in Manhattan.

The sources I am using are the ones that got Sandy and the past two winter forecasts correct.


Which past two winter storms would that be - the (non)- Blizzard of 2015. How quickly we forget.

Posted on: 2015/9/29 23:39
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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Canadian model updated and it got worse. The European model is still showing the storm going out to sea. It updates again at 1:45 AM. If all three models show this storm turning West chances are we are going to get seriously curb stomped.


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Posted on: 2015/9/29 23:11
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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GFS just flipped back and is now showing 135+ mph wind storm slamming into into Delaware / South Jersey on Sunday.



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Posted on: 2015/9/29 23:03
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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jerseymom wrote:
Thanks all for posting these updates. Any idea of when (day/time) this may make landfall? I know it's this weekend, just wondering the time windows.


Right now around Monday if (BIG IF) the storm takes a left turn.

Posted on: 2015/9/29 20:31
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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jerseymom wrote:
Thanks all for posting these updates. Any idea of when (day/time) this may make landfall? I know it's this weekend, just wondering the time windows.


If you take a look at the center/top of the .gif it gives you the Valid dates for the forecast.

Posted on: 2015/9/29 20:29
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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Thanks all for posting these updates. Any idea of when (day/time) this may make landfall? I know it's this weekend, just wondering the time windows.

Posted on: 2015/9/29 20:21
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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Latest Canadian GEM model shows us taking a big hit, with land fall in South Jersey and the eye passing right over us.

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Posted on: 2015/9/29 19:48
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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Hello fellow storm watchers and flood survivors, I believe 4 pm is when they'll have some more data from them flying into the system.

The next week is gonna be a mess, but it's all about the rate of rainfall too... and since the ground could use some saturation and we are shy 8 inches for the month, let's hope no one sees any major issues.

Posted on: 2015/9/29 17:38
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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Latest GFS model (just updated) shows the storm taking a right turn out to sea. However it does show a big rain maker coming up the coast. Total rainfall estimates over the next 10 days:

Brewster... man your bilge pumps! The JC sewer system as usual probably won't handle it all...

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Posted on: 2015/9/29 17:21
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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GLOBAL WARMING!!!! AAAAAHHHHH!!!!

Posted on: 2015/9/29 16:54
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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JCMan8 wrote:
What are the odds that "the bad" actually happens? I'm thinking very small.



Not small. There is a lot of warmer than normal water off the East coast. There are a number of factors with high pressure systems over North America. The models are showing two possibilities:

* The storm takes are hard right turn and goes out to sea.

* It combines with another low (think 'Perfect Storm') and nails us with a combination of a lot of rain (7+ inches), storm surge, and very high winds. The intensity of each will depend on the final track.

Major hurricanes are rare here, but they do happen. Last was the 1938 storm that wrecked Long Island. In 1821 one hit that drove storm surge clear up to Canal street in Manhattan.

The sources I am using are the ones that got Sandy and the past two winter forecasts correct.

Posted on: 2015/9/29 16:41
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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JCMan8 wrote:
What are the odds that "the bad" actually happens? I'm thinking very small.


Yup. Gas up, but don't get your panties in a twist over this.

Posted on: 2015/9/29 16:18
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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What are the odds that "the bad" actually happens? I'm thinking very small.

Posted on: 2015/9/29 16:13
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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Below is one of the model showing 'the bad'. Basically us taking a direct hit with 100+ mph winds.





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Posted on: 2015/9/29 16:10
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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One of the weather models has it going out to sea. Others are showing it combing with another storm and hitting our area as a strong Cat 2 or weak Cat 3. The latter is the worse case scenario which would make Sandy appear mild.

Posted on: 2015/9/29 15:57
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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I will gas up the cars tomorrow, but I'm not making a milk and egg run just quite yet. Maybe buy a case of wine though!

Posted on: 2015/9/29 15:48
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Re: Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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OMG!!!! CAN SOMEONE DRIVE ME TO SHOP-RIGHT?

Posted on: 2015/9/29 15:22
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Joaquin could impact N.J., pose biggest threat since Sandy
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Tropical Storm Joaquin formed east of the Bahamas Monday night and could impact New Jersey this weekend, posing the most acute threat from a tropical system since Hurricane Sandy.

According to the National Hurricane Center, Joaquin is expected to meander in the Atlantic Ocean for a few days before turning north. If it maintains its forecast track, Joaquin would be in the vicinity of New Jersey on Sunday.

A landfall somewhere on the East Coast, including New Jersey, is not out of the question, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Read the rest:

http://www.nj.com/weather/index.ssf/2 ... ml#incart_most-readhudson

Posted on: 2015/9/29 15:10
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