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Re: NY Times - When Does a Housing Slump Become a Bust?
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Not too shy to talk
 
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Dollar dropped like a rock to 79.889, soon to burn to the ground Hindenberg!
 Folks, what we're seeing here is a crash-up...if you don't know what that means, google it. Couldn't happen to a nicer idiocracy 
Posted on: 2007/9/7 22:15
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Re: NY Times - When Does a Housing Slump Become a Bust?
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Home away from home
 
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Well, you can kiss those BIG bonuses from Wall St. goodbye, the Party is *OVER*!!!
Why financials still look too risky ... Quote: I don't want to pull any punches: This is the worst environment for banks, mortgage lenders, and the general U.S. financial industry that I've seen since 1998!...In the beginning, Wall Street tried to tell us it was just subprime lenders having problems. But that has been proven false. Indeed, lenders in the Alt-A arena ? where loans are made to borrowers that fall between subprime and prime ? are now getting killed. Go ahead, try to get a liar-loan on that $900,000 Shore Club condo (that you over-bid at $1.1 million) in this environment, I double-dog dare you 
Posted on: 2007/8/4 6:33
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Re: NY Times - When Does a Housing Slump Become a Bust?
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Not too shy to talk
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Posted on: 2007/8/3 22:13
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Re: NY Times - When Does a Housing Slump Become a Bust?
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Home away from home
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2006/3/19 18:27 Last Login : 2019/10/21 14:19 From McGinley Square
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Quote:
P.S. I could buy several condos for cash in Jersey City, but I'm holding out until prices return to the mean, as they ALWAYS do after a mania induced bubble... And why would you? Nearly every one of your posts is negative towards this city. You think people are stupid for raising their kids here, and they are stupid to have paid so much for their property. Do you and your precious metals even live here? What interaction have you had with this city that is remotely positive?
Posted on: 2007/8/2 14:10
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Re: NY Times - When Does a Housing Slump Become a Bust?
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Home away from home
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I agree prices are cheap for condos, but I wouldn't look for them to plummet...at least not in the better parts of JC or Hoboken or NYC. Look at London, the market had a brief dip but came roaring back - that's an alpha city for you.
Posted on: 2007/8/2 5:53
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Re: NY Times - When Does a Housing Slump Become a Bust?
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Just can't stay away
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Brava for your post - sane and compassionate. Jamaica, South Jamaica and St Albans are historically black neighborhoods - I suspect that, in this part of the country, neighborhoods like these are the ones that will have people losing their homes. My experience with getting mortgages for myself and when I've sold property is that mortgage lenders are pretty demanding. Right now, I bet any freelancer, artist, etc. trying to buy in JC is undergoing a financial colonoscopy.
Posted on: 2007/8/1 22:58
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Re: NY Times - When Does a Housing Slump Become a Bust?
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Home away from home
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Au contraire mes petits moutons, I am a former property owner that opted to go liquid in 2006, as I can see the writing on the wall, i.e. the true direction the housing market is headed towards
A link for the economically naive among us... P.S. I could buy several condos for cash in Jersey City, but I'm holding out until prices return to the mean, as they ALWAYS do after a mania induced bubble...
Posted on: 2007/8/1 20:59
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Re: NY Times - When Does a Housing Slump Become a Bust?
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Home away from home
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So, I guess the answer is that you DON'T know anyone personally who is in, or fears, foreclosure.
Money pit?! Au contraire. My personal experience has been excellent with regard to Jersey City real estate, and I don't foresee that changing. I've bought and sold several properties. Maybe you should try it once and share your experience rather than throw out data that may or may not be relevant to someone (anyone) on this site. Queens is considered the ends of the earth in terms of proximity to NYC so I really wouldn't consider it a contender with Jersey City. The Bronx is not exactly popular in terms of commuters, either. Why you're even bringing up Long Island is beyond me. Most importantly: my heart goes out to anyone who is in, or fears being in, foreclosure. YOU, on the other hand, seem to wish it on people. So, basically, you own nothing and wish harm to those who do. Sounds like you're a resentful misanthrope. I suggest that you get therapy as it will be of far more beneficial use of your time than collecting data and trying to scare people with it.
Posted on: 2007/8/1 20:19
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Re: NY Times - When Does a Housing Slump Become a Bust?
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Home away from home
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With regard to all of your gloom and doom, do you know anyone (personally) who is going into foreclosure or fearing it? I don't. Regarding Hoboken...did it ever occur to you that prices going down a little in Hoboken may be partly due to people finding better deals in Jersey City and buying here?
I live in the Heights, and we have quite a few new neighbors who sold in Hoboken and Manhattan and bought here (in search of larger space for less money). Uh, I don't think they'll be foreclosing any time soon. I love Hoboken and Manhattan, so I live in Jersey City and go to both whenever I feel like it because I live so close to both. Then I come home to my very large condo in Jersey City.
Posted on: 2007/7/27 21:37
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You know that the housing market is bad when.....
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Home away from home
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Their throwing in a brand new vehicle with the purchase of a home!!!
http://newjersey.craigslist.org/rfs/379301382.html
Posted on: 2007/7/26 23:53
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Re: NY Times - When Does a Housing Slump Become a Bust?
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Home away from home
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Posted on: 2007/7/25 17:06
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Re: NY Times - When Does a Housing Slump Become a Bust?
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Home away from home
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Quote:
Posted on: 2007/6/23 6:15
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Re: NY Times - When Does a Housing Slump Become a Bust?
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Home away from home
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I'm sure you're very good at what you do, but it's hard for me to understand how you manage this much posting in between johns, unless you don't have that many clients.
Posted on: 2007/6/23 5:22
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Re: NY Times - When Does a Housing Slump Become a Bust?
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Home away from home
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Quote:
You go ahead and play the markets mate, I've got a real nice cash generating business to attend to and I'm really interested in sharing it with the boyz playing games on Wall St. Quote: When Does a Housing Slump Become a Bust? Right now! Avoiding a Falling Knife in the U.S. Mortgage Market Quote: Is the subprime mortgage crisis really just the tip of the iceberg? Bond ratings agencies seem to be playing catch up and some market participants suggest we have only just glimpsed the rising wave of downgrades poised to wash over the massive MBS and CDO markets.
Posted on: 2007/6/23 3:32
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Re: NY Times - When Does a Housing Slump Become a Bust?
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Just can't stay away
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tazmanio are you serious? so you have none of the biases you seem to think all the rest of us suffer from...hmmmmm.
must be great to be so perfect. it's really kind of humorous that you have any opinion at all since you don't particpate in owning real estate nor equities. hmmmm seems to me they are the foundations of wealth, no?
Posted on: 2007/6/22 16:13
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Re: NY Times - When Does a Housing Slump Become a Bust?
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Not too shy to talk
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2005/11/29 14:59 Last Login : 2011/8/11 19:06 From Paulus Hook
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Quote:
Why are naysayers more suspect than cheerleaders? They're not and there's no evidence, certainly on this board, to support that case. However, crackpot zealots - of either stripe - certainly are.
Posted on: 2007/6/22 13:22
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Re: NY Times - When Does a Housing Slump Become a Bust?
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Home away from home
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Actually, I don't have a dime in either the equities or RE markets...I do have some positions in commodities/precious metals, but only as an insurance policy against hyper-inflation. I've been watching the markets up close & personal now for over 11 years and I occassionally re-publish some of the info I gleen from my website watch of daily news sources to see just what the reaction of that particular demographic is... I'd have to rate "jclist" right up there with the biggest sheeple herd sites I've encountered to date, although I sense quite a bit of cognitive dissonance of the adolescent variety and a HUGE underlying dose of cognitive biases. Here 's the Wikipedia list of the 26 most studied and widely accepted cognitive biases: 1. Bandwagon effect - the tendency to do (or believe) things because many other people do (or believe) the same. Related to groupthink , herd behaviour , and manias . Carl Jung pioneered the idea of the collective unconscious which is considered by Jungian psychologists to be responsible for this cognitive bias. 2. Bias blind spot - the tendency not to compensate for one?s own cognitive biases. 3. Choice-supportive bias - the tendency to remember one?s choices as better than they actually were. 4. Confirmation bias - the tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one?s preconceptions. 5. Congruence bias - the tendency to test hypotheses exclusively through direct testing. 6. Contrast effect - the enhancement or diminishment of a weight or other measurement when compared with recently observed contrasting object. 7. D?formation professionnelle - the tendency to look at things according to the conventions of one?s own profession, forgetting any broader point of view. 8. Disconfirmation bias - the tendency for people to extend critical scrutiny to information which contradicts their prior beliefs and uncritically accept information that is congruent with their prior beliefs. 9. Endowment effect - the tendency for people to value something more as soon as they own it. 10. Focusing effect - prediction bias occurring when people place too much importance on one aspect of an event; causes error in accurately predicting the utility of a future outcome. 11. Hyperbolic discounting - the tendency for people to have a stronger preference for more immediate payoffs relative to later payoffs, the closer to the present both payoffs are. 12. Illusion of control - the tendency for human beings to believe they can control or at least influence outcomes which they clearly cannot. 13. Impact bias - the tendency for people to overestimate the length or the intensity of the impact of future feeling states. 14. Information bias - the tendency to seek information even when it cannot affect action. 15. Loss aversion - the tendency for people to strongly prefer avoiding losses over acquiring gains (see also sunk cost effects ) 16. Neglect of probability - the tendency to completely disregard probability when making a decision under uncertainty. 17. Mere exposure effect - the tendency for people to express undue liking for things merely because they are familiar with them. 18. Omission bias - The tendency to judge harmful actions as worse, or less moral, than equally harmful omissions (inactions). 19. Outcome bias - the tendency to judge a decision by its eventual outcome instead of based on the quality of the decision at the time it was made. 20. Planning fallacy - the tendency to underestimate task-completion times. 21. Post-purchase rationalization - the tendency to persuade oneself through rational argument that a purchase was a good value. 22. Pseudocertainty effect - the tendency to make risk-averse choices if the expected outcome is positive, but make risk-seeking choices to avoid negative outcomes. 23. Selective perception - the tendency for expectations to affect perception. 24. Status quo bias - the tendency for people to like things to stay relatively the same. 25. Von Restorff effect - the tendency for an item that ?stands out like a sore thumb? to be more likely to be remembered than other items. 26. Zero-risk bias - preference for reducing a small risk to zero over a greater reduction in a larger risk. Sorry to disturb the herd from its collective slumber, you can return back to your regularly scheduled mundanities  Quote: "Only a free and unrestrained press can effectively expose deception in government." - Hugo Black, Supreme Court Justice
Posted on: 2007/6/22 2:04
Edited by TaZMaNiO on 2007/6/22 2:29:10
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Re: NY Times - When Does a Housing Slump Become a Bust?
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Just can't stay away
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injcsince81 wrote
Quote: Short selling the RE market? Not to get in the middle of this, but I think you can short real estate through futures contracts. I think they break it down into several submarkets nation-wide.
Posted on: 2007/6/22 1:36
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Myth: Pancakes are for breakfast.
Fact: There are no rules when it comes to pancakes. |
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Re: NY Times - When Does a Housing Slump Become a Bust?
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Home away from home
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I trust neither. Same difference.
Posted on: 2007/6/22 0:57
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Re: NY Times - When Does a Housing Slump Become a Bust?
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Home away from home
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Why are naysayers more suspect than cheerleaders? Remember the tech stock "analysts" who never, ever gave a "sell" recommendation? Don't shoot the messenger saying that what goes up might not stay there.
Posted on: 2007/6/22 0:24
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Re: NY Times - When Does a Housing Slump Become a Bust?
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Just can't stay away
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Really Tazmanio......sigh
I also read an article in the Times stating that the avg. price of a one bedroom in NYC is 818K and two bedroom 1.2K. Of courses prices have become negotiable in this area. They were insane two years ago. But forelosures??? Most of the folks here could afford what they purchased. Perhaps in all your wisdom you could predict the stock market activity for the next six months.....or maybe the next president or maybe the end of the world
Posted on: 2007/6/21 21:40
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Re: NY Times - When Does a Housing Slump Become a Bust?
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Home away from home
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Whaaa, I'm scared!
Really, scared. Tazmanio, who the F are you? Short selling the RE market? Pray tell.
Posted on: 2007/6/21 19:33
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Re: NY Times - When Does a Housing Slump Become a Bust?
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Home away from home
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IRRATIONAL HOUSING:
INSIDERS OUT EARLY AND THE DUESENBERRY EFFECT - Markets operate under the assumption that key players act rationally in most circumstances. Their premise is such that market stability is based on people acting to a set of according rules. Much has been debated about this because economics as a science is cold and aloof; it is a matter of simply stating the facts. Yet we have learned in the recent housing mania that market psychology and behavioral economics play a large role in how people interpret risk and what constitutes an investment. As most bubbles in the past, such as John Law?s Banque G?n?rale and the South Sea Bubble, many bubbles burst and leap into another bubble. Why is this? The argument goes that in a bubble profit is a major driving force distorting stable growth for radical cancerous increases that are only supportable for a short time. After the glut of speculation is complete, those with a profit that cashed out on time feel the hunger for continued gains. This desire precipitates another bubble in whatever form it may be; technology stocks, real estate, commodities, or foreign investment. Either way, the pattern is such were a few successful insiders gut the system, leave burns on the psyche of a general public only to save up long enough to let the emotional scars to heal. Then they jump into the fire again with their resources ready to be distributed to those at the top again. WORST HOUSING MARKET SINCE THE DEPRESSION - The markets seem to be waking up to the fact that the housing market is nowhere near the bottom. Borrowers are being squeezed by the treasury markets' recent sell off, which has increased 30-year mortgage rates the most since 2004. The National Median Home price is poised for its first annual decline since the Great Depression. An executive at the giant bond fund PIMCO said it best: "It's a blood bath. We're talking about a two to three year downturn that will take a whole host of characters with it, from job creation to consumer confidence. Eventually it will take the stock markets and corporate profit." The U.S. housing market has provided the economy with support through the creation of wealth and the seemingly endless ATM of price increases. The recent increase in yields, along with the subprime mortgage meltdown is going to kick this support right out from under the economy, and the dollar is going to be drug down along with it.
Posted on: 2007/6/21 18:57
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Re: NY Times - When Does a Housing Slump Become a Bust?
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Not too shy to talk
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Posted on: 2007/6/18 21:49
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Re: NY Times - When Does a Housing Slump Become a Bust?
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Home away from home
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The subprime mortgage world has been reduced to rubble with no lasting impact on another, larger, credit market dancing on an equally fragile precipice: high-yield corporate debt. In this fast-growing arena of loans to business -- these days, mostly, private equity deals -- lending proceeds as if the subprime debacle were some minor skirmish in a little known, far away land.
How curious that so many in the financial community should remain blissfully oblivious to live grenades scattered around the high-yield playing field. Amid all the asset bubbles that we've seen in recent years -- emerging markets in 1997, Internet...Larry Fink, chief executive of BlackRock, say "we're seeing the same thing in the credit markets" that set the stage for the fall of the subprime loan market." Moody's Issues Subprime Reminder - In the earnings reports last week from Lehman Bros. (LEH 79.07), Goldman Sachs (GS 226.19) and Bear Stearns (BSC 150.09), it was readily apparent that their fixed income businesses weren't all they could be due to the problems in the subprime mortgage market. Today's Wall Street Journal has an article on the subprime woes that calls specific attention to a Moody's downgrade on Friday of 131 bonds backed by pools of subprime loans. The reporters were careful to point out that the downgrade affects only $3 billion worth of bonds out of the roughly $400 billion in subprime mortgage-backed bonds issued in 2006. Looking For Home Lender? Be Prepared Borrowers Shouldn't Get Too Aggressive With Mortgage - When lenders compete, borrowers might not always win...In fact, borrowers could lose big. 
Posted on: 2007/6/18 16:50
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Re: NY Times - When Does a Housing Slump Become a Bust?
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Just can't stay away
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2005/11/18 10:02 Last Login : 2014/8/4 14:09 From Journal Square, duh!
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Oh, who would believe that? Stupid and NYT together apparently make an oxymoron. Try "corrupt" for even more revolt between your readers. ... next time you will say something mean about Zagat, and everybody knows that, except NYT and Zagat, people's tongues are made from horse buttocks. BTW, Tazmanio, I think everybody got your main point. Housing prices are getting down, but interests are going up, or something like that... Probably this will affect rents too, although something is telling me that, no matter what happens, I will not be able to move to Pavonia or UES. Some of us worry about much simpler things that buying a house, some of us are so beyond the clouds that couldn't care less, but you keep reminding us these things. How about a more interseting description of the weather in Long Island? Could you at least refrain from starting a thousand threads?
Posted on: 2007/6/17 21:23
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Re: NY Times - When Does a Housing Slump Become a Bust?
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Home away from home
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News from Wall Street? ?Concerned that an internal hedge fund at Bear Stearns Cos. wouldn?t be able to meet a margin call, Merrill Lynch & Co., one of the fund?s biggest lenders, seized $400 million of its assets and is preparing to auction them off.?
?The auction, in the coming week, could trigger the fund?s dissolution, the second blowup in recent months of a hedge fund that made dicey bets on the market for risky home loans, known as subprime mortgages.? ?Everquest Financial, a company that filed plans for an initial public offering last month, has ties with a troubled hedge fund run by investment bank Bear Stearns Cos.? ??If the stories are correct about the problems at the fund, it sounds like they off-loaded the riskiest positions to Everquest,? said Josh Rosner, a managing director at research firm Graham Fisher & Co. ?It is not clear if this was before or after they were aware that those positions were hurting the hedge fund, but the decision seems to have happened before news leaked of the funds? supposed problems,? he added.?
Posted on: 2007/6/17 16:43
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NY Times - When Does a Housing Slump Become a Bust?
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Home away from home
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MANY Americans fear the consequences of a housing bust, but few know what one would really look like...In the 12 months that ended in March, for example, the median price of an existing single-family home in the Sarasota-Bradenton- Venice area of Florida fell by 12.4 percent, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). In Louisiana, in the area of New Orleans, Metairie and Kenner, the average price fell by 11 percent. And in the Reno-Sparks area of Nevada, the average decline was 8.8 percent, not far from Mr. Zandi?s threshold. So how far have prices actually fallen? The median price of an existing home has declined 4 percent, on average, since the peak in October 2005, according to the National Association of Realtors. Yet in some areas, by Mr. Zandi?s definition, at least, the market is already experiencing a bust. Over all, Mr. Zandi points out that 40 percent of metropolitan areas around the country are now experiencing declines in housing prices. But if the pessimists are right that there?s more to come, look out. A 10 percent decline in prices is likely to feel pretty awful. And then everyone might agree on what a housing bust is.
LOL, I can't believe how lazy and stupid this NY Times "reporter" is Using numbers from the NAR is like going to the mafia for statistics on crime! He should go to the HARD sales numbers: - YTD price drops - Sarasota-Bradenton - Venice area of Florida = -19.7% (not the fluffy -12.4% recorded by the NAR) New Orleans, Metairie and Kenner = Not able to tell due to the state/county blocking internet access, but I'm sure the "reporter" could have got the hard #s if he wasn't spinning for the NAR Reno-Sparks area of Nevada = Hey, the NAR actually reported the right number! Of course, who wants to live in Reno  Phoenix = -5.6% Hoboken = -6.9% (Coming soon to Jersey City once the new bldg. specualators depart) Another interesting point to mention about this econo-spin fluff is the curious lack of mention about house for sale (supply) being at all-time historic highs, which of course means this slide is just beginning, which of course is why this scared lil' rabbit of a reporter put out this happy talk to begin with Of course, I really can't blame the NAR, what with their profession about to go the way of the Dodo bird...
Posted on: 2007/6/17 16:35
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