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Re: JC Real estate Ar·ma·ged·don - Supply glut!
#13
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Rents exist in a rental market, not a vacuum. If a landlord trying to recoup his raised taxes brings rent up past market, he will have zero income. The tenants hurt will be the ones that the less realistic landlords learn this on.

On the other hand, taxes elsewhere in town will go down, making them even more competitive for tenants should they choose to reduce rents. But they probably won't, since DT will be overpriced anyway.

Posted on: 2/9 12:33
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Re: JC Real estate Ar·ma·ged·don - Supply glut!
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Quote:

JSleeze wrote:
Quote:

HeightsNative wrote:
Quote:

JSleeze wrote:
Quote:

HeightsNative wrote:
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pizzaboye wrote:
Downtown renter here. My landlord said he's raising the rent by $300/mo due to the re-val. So, now we're moving out of JC. Bye!


That's not that bad. Some are seeing $1000+ increases.


"Some" who? Give specific examples.


It's anecdotal but a friend of mine is an owner downtown. his costs are going by more than $1000 a month and he doesn't know if he can pass it through to his tenant or not, legally.


So you don't know of anyone who has received a $1,000+ rent increase. Let's stick to facts, please.


Yes, forgive me; it should have said "some MAY see" based on cost increases to owners I know. Apologies. Either way, it ain't good.

Posted on: 2/9 10:44
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Re: JC Real estate Ar·ma·ged·don - Supply glut!
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Quote:

JCResidente wrote:
I noticed that JC real estate listings on Zillow and other sites have sky rocketed. I am talking about 1000% plus supply flooding the market.

Yeah, not so much.

For all JC, listings that are 7 days old or less: 76 homes
Listings 14 days old or less: 141
Listings 30 days: 244
Listings 90 days: 452

Oh, and there are 113,000 housing units in Jersey City.

I'm pretty sure that:
a) adding 76 new listings in a week is not a "1000% increase"
b) 76 new listings is a drop in the bucket
c) this is not going to make a dent in the JC market

Also, here in the real world, the reval is not all negative; thousands of homes will see property tax cuts, which means the value of those homes is about to increase.


Quote:
My prediction, We are venturing into 10+ years of Jersey City real estate depression.

<< rolleyes >>

Sorry, but that is sheer nonsense.

1) The economy is fine
2) The worst economic and real estate downturn in 70 years didn't cause a "10 year RE depression"
3) Inventory in JC (especially DTJC) is incredibly tight
3a) JC is still 75% or more rentals
4) Interest rates will not get so high that it destroys the JC market
5) JC doesn't rely heavily on foreign buyers, certainly nothing compared to the high end NYC RE market
6) JC is still a bargain compared to NYC
7) As mentioned, it's not like every single home in JC is about to get whacked with a 300% property tax increase
8) Anyone who sells right now still has to live somewhere, and if they want to live in the same area, that's going to maintain prices on mid-range properties (e.g. if you own a $2m home, and want to live in JC, you will now go after $1.5m homes, whose prices will go up if there's competition for it)


Quote:
Everyone invests for one reason, Returns!!!! There is no meat left in our RE market.

Returns is only one of many reasons to buy. They want to live in a specific area; renting is less secure, costs more every year, and does not build equity; they want more latitude to modify the home.

But hey, if you want to dump everything you own at a cut-rate price, who are we to stop you?

Posted on: 2/9 10:30
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Re: JC Real estate Ar·ma·ged·don - Supply glut!
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HeightsNative wrote:
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JSleeze wrote:
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HeightsNative wrote:
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pizzaboye wrote:
Downtown renter here. My landlord said he's raising the rent by $300/mo due to the re-val. So, now we're moving out of JC. Bye!


That's not that bad. Some are seeing $1000+ increases.


"Some" who? Give specific examples.


It's anecdotal but a friend of mine is an owner downtown. his costs are going by more than $1000 a month and he doesn't know if he can pass it through to his tenant or not, legally.


So you don't know of anyone who has received a $1,000+ rent increase. Let's stick to facts, please.

Posted on: 2/9 10:23
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Re: JC Real estate Ar·ma·ged·don - Supply glut!
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if downtown is going to plummet due to reval, shouldn't other areas at least flatline or rise due to it?Quote:

JCResidente wrote:
I noticed that JC real estate listings on Zillow and other sites have sky rocketed. I am talking about 1000% plus supply flooding the market.

JC RE Honeymoon over! My prediction, We are venturing into 10+ years of Jersey City real estate depression. Don't expect foreigners to bail us out, nor our next door multi-millionaire investors. Everyone invests for one reason, Returns!!!! There is no meat left in our RE market.

Multiple blows - Reval & Property Taxes, 10 Years plus Equity Market run-up coming to an end, Bond Yields negatively impacting other investments, Rising interest rates, Problem with our schools and most importantly - Artificially inflated asset prices...

Vulture investors sit on the sideline - 60% plus downside.

Posted on: 2/9 9:54
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Re: JC Real estate Ar·ma·ged·don - Supply glut!
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Quote:

JSleeze wrote:
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HeightsNative wrote:
Quote:

pizzaboye wrote:
Downtown renter here. My landlord said he's raising the rent by $300/mo due to the re-val. So, now we're moving out of JC. Bye!


That's not that bad. Some are seeing $1000+ increases.


"Some" who? Give specific examples.


It's anecdotal but a friend of mine is an owner downtown. his costs are going by more than $1000 a month and he doesn't know if he can pass it through to his tenant or not, legally. Someone on the other thread brought this up. It is an unreasonable increase of your costs went up by as much?

Can any lawyers weigh in?

Posted on: 2/9 9:46
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Re: JC Real estate Ar·ma·ged·don - Supply glut!
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HeightsNative wrote:
Quote:

pizzaboye wrote:
Downtown renter here. My landlord said he's raising the rent by $300/mo due to the re-val. So, now we're moving out of JC. Bye!


That's not that bad. Some are seeing $1000+ increases.


"Some" who? Give specific examples.

Posted on: 2/9 9:19
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Re: JC Real estate Ar·ma·ged·don - Supply glut!
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pizzaboye wrote:
Downtown renter here. My landlord said he's raising the rent by $300/mo due to the re-val. So, now we're moving out of JC. Bye!


That's not that bad. Some are seeing $1000+ increases.

Posted on: 2/9 9:09
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Re: JC Real estate Ar·ma·ged·don - Supply glut!
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Downtown renter here. My landlord said he's raising the rent by $300/mo due to the re-val. So, now we're moving out of JC. Bye!

Posted on: 2/9 9:08
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Re: JC Real estate Ar·ma·ged·don - Supply glut!
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JSleeze wrote:
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JCResidente wrote:

Vulture investors sit on the sideline - 60% plus downside.


Tap the breaks there, Chief. 60+%?? Not remotely likely.

What seems to be forgotten is for the chunk of the market that pays its taxes under PILOTs, nothing much has changed. Sure, the land tax is being raised astronomically (as much as ten times), but that is a very small piece of the overall bill. Rising interest rates and the new tax bill will soften the market, to be sure, but otherwise it's business as usual.


For newer, long term abatements, sure. But many are already midway through shorter abatement cycles. Any smart investor sees the bigger picture and would stay far away. On a net basis, this is a disaster for DTJC.

Posted on: 2/9 9:03
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Re: JC Real estate Ar·ma·ged·don - Supply glut!
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JCResidente wrote:

Vulture investors sit on the sideline - 60% plus downside.


Tap the breaks there, Chief. 60+%?? Not remotely likely.

What seems to be forgotten is for the chunk of the market that pays its taxes under PILOTs, nothing much has changed. Sure, the land tax is being raised astronomically (as much as ten times), but that is a very small piece of the overall bill. Rising interest rates and the new tax bill will soften the market, to be sure, but otherwise it's business as usual.

Posted on: 2/9 8:56
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Re: JC Real estate Ar·ma·ged·don - Supply glut!
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you missed the plug for your doomsday newsletter subcription

Posted on: 2/9 8:55
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JC Real estate Ar·ma·ged·don - Supply glut!
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I noticed that JC real estate listings on Zillow and other sites have sky rocketed. I am talking about 1000% plus supply flooding the market.

JC RE Honeymoon over! My prediction, We are venturing into 10+ years of Jersey City real estate depression. Don't expect foreigners to bail us out, nor our next door multi-millionaire investors. Everyone invests for one reason, Returns!!!! There is no meat left in our RE market.

Multiple blows - Reval & Property Taxes, 10 Years plus Equity Market run-up coming to an end, Bond Yields negatively impacting other investments, Rising interest rates, Problem with our schools and most importantly - Artificially inflated asset prices...

Vulture investors sit on the sideline - 60% plus downside.

Posted on: 2/9 0:26
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