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JCRealist

Re: McGinley Square Revitalization - Will anything ever happen?

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None of these areas will be developed unless the city stops these abatements downtown.

Posted on: 2013/3/2 23:10

getz011

Re: McGinley Square Revitalization - Will anything ever happen?

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Hi vindication,

though I often disagree with you, I do think you often make some good points. What I tried to point out was that your claim of 40%-60% drops in value at the Beacon wasn't supported by the data in the article you quoted. T-Bird pointed out below, much more articulately than I, the reasons why.

If you have data based on sales between 2007-10 at the Beacon, or McGinley Square, or wherever that show a 40%-60% drop in square-foot value for comparable properties, please post it. I'd love to see it and promise to be the first to admit my error. (BTW, in analysis we usually look for a minimum sample of 30 cases before trying to draw any meaningful conclusions, but 20-25 cases in this context would certainly seem enough to suggest a trend.)

True story: for the past few years a raccoon has been showing up on my deck and eating food that I put out for feral cats. I've written up the fake newspaper story below to be analogous to the snippet of the nj.com article you quoted:

When getz looked out the back window of his home in Lafayette one night in 2009, he was alarmed to see, for the first time, a feral raccoon foraging dementedly for food on his deck. Four years later, he says, it's sometimes possible to look out and see a feral raccoon there 5 times a month. Asked if it was the same raccoon foraging on his deck all these years, getz said, 'You know, I can't tell. Feral raccoons look pretty similar to me.'

"Other residents of Lafayette had almost never seen a feral raccoon foraging in their yard; now, however, some say they spot one about 2 or 3 times monthly. They're pinning their hopes on Jersey City animal control to end the pattern of feral raccoon foraging in their neighborhood.

Based on these two paragraphs, one might argue that there's sufficient data there to prove that the feral raccoon population of Lafayette is up 500% since 2009, and that my neighbors and I are now overrun. That's not the case, of course. The raccoon has learned where there's food and he keeps coming back; some others on my street have seen him, too.

Enjoy the weekend!

Posted on: 2013/3/2 18:49

T-Bird

Re: McGinley Square Revitalization - Will anything ever happen?

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Quote:

vindication15 wrote:

Really? Really? It's one single data point from paragraph 2 because it's ONE example from ONE paragraph of the MANY paragraph article...

Let me re-paste another paragraph because even though you might do data analysis, reading comprehension is not your strong point:

"Residents, some of whom have seen the value of their condos plummet from almost $500,000 to about $200,000, are pinning their hopes these days on a Connecticut-based company that bought the troubled complex from Filopoulos."

Residents is plural meaning more than a single resident which implies more than a single unit.

500k to 200k is more than a 50% decrease in value hence my earlier stats.

Look, either you think the paragraph I am talking about is FALSE or there is no help for you.

Why be nasty? I've found Getz to be a thoughtful poster who is considerate in his/her treatment of others. Why not return the kindness? I'm not interested enough to do a tax records search but based on the article you put up, I don't see how you can argue with Getz.

"Some residents" is FOX News-type laziness/overstatement. The article cites only two actual sales. So of the 28 sales that are discussed, you have 26 with an average drop of 26%, one at 38% and one that fits your claim but is suspect because they are using the purchase price of one unit and comparing it to the sales price of another. Even better, the one sale you cite might be included in the 26 sales that experienced a 26% drop because there is no date given for its sale!

The fact is, a 26% drop during the timeframe they focused on (2007 to 2010) is not really that different from what the downtown condo market experienced in general - but that would make for a much less interesting article. Fortunately, the market has rebounded pretty sharply over the past year+ and hopefully the Beacon will experience a similar recovery.

Posted on: 2013/3/2 11:07

vindication15

Re: McGinley Square Revitalization - Will anything ever happen?

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Quote:

getz011 wrote:
Quote:

vindication15 wrote:
Quote:

getz011 wrote:
Quote:

vindication15 wrote:

Fine, most units lost 40%-60%. And no, downtown jersey city did not lose 40%-60% when beacon homeowners lost 40%-60% of their value

From the article:

"Residents, some of whom have seen the value of their condos plummet from almost $500,000 to about $200,000, are pinning their hopes these days on a Connecticut-based company that bought the troubled complex from Filopoulos."

"He bought his 1,000-square-foot condo for $484,600, records show. Two years later, a similar unit on the floor below his sold for $190,000."

"In 2007, the Beacon sold 191 condominiums, when most buyers paid $458 a square foot or more. By 2010, records show, there were only 26 sales, and the average price per unit was $339 a square foot."

1) Article paragraph 2 is anecdote; a single data point. Interesting, but not evidence of a pattern.

2) A drop from $458/sq.ft. to $339/sq.ft. represents a 26% reduction. Not pretty, but nowhere near the 40%-60% you cite.

Can you read this sentence for me, I have bolded important words for you:

"Residents, some of whom have seen the value of their condos plummet from almost $500,000 to about $200,000, are pinning their hopes these days on a Connecticut-based company that bought the troubled complex from Filopoulos."

Can you also now define singular for me. kthnx

Paragraph 2 of the article is the one that begins, "He bought his 1,000-square-foot condo...."

'He' is singular. And that's a single data point. "Some residents" who have seen a reduction from "almost $5000,000" to "about $200,000" is anecdotal.

I do data analysis for a living. Show me good data and you have my attention. You claimed a pattern of 40%-60% losses based on, as far as I can tell, two sentences. One that amounts to a 26% loss when you do the math, and a second that alludes to 'some people' who lost 'about' a lot of money.

I reread my post and didn't see snark, but thanks for yours.

Really? Really? It's one single data point from paragraph 2 because it's ONE example from ONE paragraph of the MANY paragraph article...

Let me re-paste another paragraph because even though you might do data analysis, reading comprehension is not your strong point:

"Residents, some of whom have seen the value of their condos plummet from almost $500,000 to about $200,000, are pinning their hopes these days on a Connecticut-based company that bought the troubled complex from Filopoulos."

Residents is plural meaning more than a single resident which implies more than a single unit.

500k to 200k is more than a 50% decrease in value hence my earlier stats.

Look, either you think the paragraph I am talking about is FALSE or there is no help for you.

Posted on: 2013/3/2 7:03

getz011

Re: McGinley Square Revitalization - Will anything ever happen?

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Quote:

vindication15 wrote:
Quote:

getz011 wrote:
Quote:

vindication15 wrote:

Fine, most units lost 40%-60%. And no, downtown jersey city did not lose 40%-60% when beacon homeowners lost 40%-60% of their value

From the article:

"Residents, some of whom have seen the value of their condos plummet from almost $500,000 to about $200,000, are pinning their hopes these days on a Connecticut-based company that bought the troubled complex from Filopoulos."

"He bought his 1,000-square-foot condo for $484,600, records show. Two years later, a similar unit on the floor below his sold for $190,000."

"In 2007, the Beacon sold 191 condominiums, when most buyers paid $458 a square foot or more. By 2010, records show, there were only 26 sales, and the average price per unit was $339 a square foot."

1) Article paragraph 2 is anecdote; a single data point. Interesting, but not evidence of a pattern.

2) A drop from $458/sq.ft. to $339/sq.ft. represents a 26% reduction. Not pretty, but nowhere near the 40%-60% you cite.

Can you read this sentence for me, I have bolded important words for you:

"Residents, some of whom have seen the value of their condos plummet from almost $500,000 to about $200,000, are pinning their hopes these days on a Connecticut-based company that bought the troubled complex from Filopoulos."

Can you also now define singular for me. kthnx

Paragraph 2 of the article is the one that begins, "He bought his 1,000-square-foot condo...."

'He' is singular. And that's a single data point. "Some residents" who have seen a reduction from "almost $5000,000" to "about $200,000" is anecdotal.

I do data analysis for a living. Show me good data and you have my attention. You claimed a pattern of 40%-60% losses based on, as far as I can tell, two sentences. One that amounts to a 26% loss when you do the math, and a second that alludes to 'some people' who lost 'about' a lot of money.

I reread my post and didn't see snark, but thanks for yours.

Posted on: 2013/3/2 6:03

vindication15

Re: McGinley Square Revitalization - Will anything ever happen?

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No matter how much you shine a turd, it's a turd. The beacon is a turd because it is located in an undesirable location full of housing projects, crime, and away from things that matter - namely transportation and restaurants that don't contain mice.

Posted on: 2013/3/2 5:35

vindication15

Re: McGinley Square Revitalization - Will anything ever happen?

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Quote:

getz011 wrote:
Quote:

vindication15 wrote:

Fine, most units lost 40%-60%. And no, downtown jersey city did not lose 40%-60% when beacon homeowners lost 40%-60% of their value

From the article:

"Residents, some of whom have seen the value of their condos plummet from almost $500,000 to about $200,000, are pinning their hopes these days on a Connecticut-based company that bought the troubled complex from Filopoulos."

"He bought his 1,000-square-foot condo for $484,600, records show. Two years later, a similar unit on the floor below his sold for $190,000."

"In 2007, the Beacon sold 191 condominiums, when most buyers paid $458 a square foot or more. By 2010, records show, there were only 26 sales, and the average price per unit was $339 a square foot."

1) Article paragraph 2 is anecdote; a single data point. Interesting, but not evidence of a pattern.

2) A drop from $458/sq.ft. to $339/sq.ft. represents a 26% reduction. Not pretty, but nowhere near the 40%-60% you cite.

Can you read this sentence for me, I have bolded important words for you:

"Residents, some of whom have seen the value of their condos plummet from almost $500,000 to about $200,000, are pinning their hopes these days on a Connecticut-based company that bought the troubled complex from Filopoulos."

Can you also now define singular for me. kthnx

Posted on: 2013/3/2 5:30

jcguy05

Re: McGinley Square Revitalization - Will anything ever happen?

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The article is actually quite well written and reflect the reality of the area, a simple tax record search confirms the numbers. Beacon's price drop was one of the largest in jc for the simple reason it was selling at the same price as the downtown highrise condos during the height of the bubble but not located in such area. But it is not the only building, canco loft also experienced a large price drop (not as bad as the beacon though).

I was surprised to learn Filopoulos was under such financial stress, knew the complex wasnt doing well at the time, when they flipped condos to mercury loft after much fanfare then flipped to rentals again.

But there is hope for the current owners underwater, with the rental market already red hot and condos starting to come back. If you are a resident not an investor then time is on your side.

This is a lesson on location, many will not soon forget.

Posted on: 2013/3/2 5:28

getz011

Re: McGinley Square Revitalization - Will anything ever happen?

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Quote:

vindication15 wrote:

Fine, most units lost 40%-60%. And no, downtown jersey city did not lose 40%-60% when beacon homeowners lost 40%-60% of their value

From the article:

"Residents, some of whom have seen the value of their condos plummet from almost $500,000 to about $200,000, are pinning their hopes these days on a Connecticut-based company that bought the troubled complex from Filopoulos."

"He bought his 1,000-square-foot condo for $484,600, records show. Two years later, a similar unit on the floor below his sold for $190,000."

"In 2007, the Beacon sold 191 condominiums, when most buyers paid $458 a square foot or more. By 2010, records show, there were only 26 sales, and the average price per unit was $339 a square foot."

1) Article paragraph 2 is anecdote; a single data point. Interesting, but not evidence of a pattern.

2) A drop from $458/sq.ft. to $339/sq.ft. represents a 26% reduction. Not pretty, but nowhere near the 40%-60% you cite.

Posted on: 2013/3/2 5:07

vindication15

Re: McGinley Square Revitalization - Will anything ever happen?

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Quote:

billc wrote:
Quote:

vindication15 wrote:
Quote:

SammyTheT wrote:
There's a couple of hundred million dollars of development going on at The Beacon right now - this is McGinley Square.

The Beacon? Really? One of the most failed projects in Jersey City history. A lot of people lost more than 70% of their value after purchasing....

The Beacon is not a failed project. There is a new development company in place that is finishing up the Orpheum building after very successfully finishing and renting out the Mercury. They are also finishing the Paramount building and expect to complete an 830 car parking structure by this Summer. There hasn't been this much activity at the Beacon site since 2008. I know, I live there.
While almost all property around the country have lost value since 2007-2008, and the Beacon is no different in that regard, I don't know anyone that lost 70% of their value. I know I lost a about 35 to 40% initially, but values have improved a bit in the last year.

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2012 ... ern_marvel_beacon_in.html

Fine, most units lost 40%-60%. And no, downtown jersey city did not lose 40%-60% when beacon homeowners lost 40%-60% of their value

From the article:

"Residents, some of whom have seen the value of their condos plummet from almost $500,000 to about $200,000, are pinning their hopes these days on a Connecticut-based company that bought the troubled complex from Filopoulos."

"He bought his 1,000-square-foot condo for $484,600, records show. Two years later, a similar unit on the floor below his sold for $190,000."

"In 2007, the Beacon sold 191 condominiums, when most buyers paid $458 a square foot or more. By 2010, records show, there were only 26 sales, and the average price per unit was $339 a square foot."

Posted on: 2013/3/2 4:04

PlainSlice

Re: McGinley Square Revitalization - Will anything ever happen?

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Quote:

billc wrote:
The Beacon is not a failed project.

The Beacon is a pretty good symbol for the reality of the Jersey City as it is. It's not failed. It will get re-developed. It will take a lot longer than expected. And it has not delivered on its promises - for the developer, for its original owners, for its neighborhood.

They're great buildings. George did a fine job with certain parts of the restoration, and in carrying out part of his vision, financial realities notwithstanding.

There are a couple of failures in my opinion. I don't care for the gated nature of the project. You get how Newport has worked that way. But this takes historic buildings in a great neighborhood location and purposely walls itself off, except for the shuttle bus corridor to downtown and the PATH. The developers designed against the promise of revitalizing the neighborhood. A better vision could have opened the property up to the neighborhood in a different way.

The second failure, which I won't put on the Beacon, is how low our sights have fallen. When built, it was not a vision of luxury residences for NY commuters and global business trekkers. It was a vision of accessible medical care for the community. Now we're fighting over scraps between hospitals struggling to survive while seeing revenue streams that are beyond belief. Would that someone could today have a vision for community transformation on the same grand scale.

Stepping off my soapbox to point back to McGinley Square. A lot needs to happen for the neighborhood to upgrade. There's stuff on the horizon - but it's the far horizon.

Posted on: 2013/3/2 3:57

jsqfunk

Re: McGinley Square Revitalization - Will anything ever happen?

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the st pete's thing looks like it has a starbucks rip-off on one of its levels, I assume it won't be locked or ID only to get in?

Posted on: 2013/3/2 3:32

billc

Re: McGinley Square Revitalization - Will anything ever happen?

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Quote:

vindication15 wrote:
Quote:

SammyTheT wrote:
There's a couple of hundred million dollars of development going on at The Beacon right now - this is McGinley Square.

The Beacon? Really? One of the most failed projects in Jersey City history. A lot of people lost more than 70% of their value after purchasing....

The Beacon is not a failed project. There is a new development company in place that is finishing up the Orpheum building after very successfully finishing and renting out the Mercury. They are also finishing the Paramount building and expect to complete an 830 car parking structure by this Summer. There hasn't been this much activity at the Beacon site since 2008. I know, I live there.
While almost all property around the country have lost value since 2007-2008, and the Beacon is no different in that regard, I don't know anyone that lost 70% of their value. I know I lost a about 35 to 40% initially, but values have improved a bit in the last year.

Posted on: 2013/3/1 20:11

PlainSlice

Re: McGinley Square Revitalization - Will anything ever happen?

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Quote:

SammyTheT wrote:
Why do people say that nothing is happening?

Let's recall the recent history.

1. The Beacon. It's a gated community. You never see any of the people who live there interact with the neighborhood, other than the occasional call for food delivery - usually to a downtown restaurant. A variety of

2. St. Peter's McGinley "redevelopment." After the city had to back down from its initial support for stealing residents' property through eminent domain, the project is completely stalled. St. Peters' student center is not exactly an amenity for the community.

3. JCHA Montgomery Gardens project lost at lost of steam when it lost out on its application for HUD funding. Let's say that this on no longer on the fast track. Don't hold your breath waiting for a visible impact on the neighborhood.

4. Home to what is probably the city's least visible, least effective SID.

5. Jersey City man robbed of school supplies, cell phone by armed men near McGinley Square

Otherwise, Sammy, McGinley Square is doing fine. If you didn't need to paint a Healy-influenced rosy hue over reality, we might agree that the neighborhood has some pluses, but is challenged.

Posted on: 2013/3/1 19:59

Dahood

Re: McGinley Square Revitalization - Will anything ever happen?

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JC is not a square mile city like Hoboken, where all points have easy accessibility to PATH or NYC bound buses. The driver for growth in Mcginley Square should be St Peters and not NYC.

Posted on: 2013/3/1 18:54

ripple

Re: McGinley Square Revitalization - Will anything ever happen?

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Other than the St. Peter's project, I wouldn't expect to see anything happen in McGinley sq until two "downtownish" businesses (you know it when you see it) open on Bergen Ave between Sip and Academy.

Posted on: 2013/3/1 18:32

vindication15

Re: McGinley Square Revitalization - Will anything ever happen?

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Quote:

SammyTheT wrote:
There's a couple of hundred million dollars of development going on at The Beacon right now - this is McGinley Square.

The new Saint Peter's University Student Center is a great new amenity for McGinley Square.

The Jersey City Housing Authority's redevelopment of Montgomery Gardens will be a major change in the feel of McGinley Square.

Why do people say that nothing is happening?

The Beacon? Really? One of the most failed projects in Jersey City history. A lot of people lost more than 70% of their value after purchasing....

Posted on: 2013/3/1 15:30

SammyTheT

Re: McGinley Square Revitalization - Will anything ever happen?

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There's a couple of hundred million dollars of development going on at The Beacon right now - this is McGinley Square.

The new Saint Peter's University Student Center is a great new amenity for McGinley Square.

The Jersey City Housing Authority's redevelopment of Montgomery Gardens will be a major change in the feel of McGinley Square.

Why do people say that nothing is happening?

Posted on: 2013/3/1 15:13

Pamrapo

Re: McGinley Square Revitalization - Will anything ever happen?

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Agree that McGinley Square is further away than its boosters would like. Journal Square development will help it long-term, but not do too much for it short-term - because the JSQ developments will be the focus. Why build at McGinley (or move there) if you've got a better opportunity right on top of a PATH station?

Posted on: 2013/3/1 13:37

nafco

Re: McGinley Square Revitalization - Will anything ever happen?

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Quote:

vindication15 wrote:
all areas eventually improve.

0-5 years till downtown is developed
5-10 yrs till journal square is developed
10-15 years till the heights is developed
15-20 years till mcginley square

I would put some money on those estimates

i think the last two are switched. if journal square is next in line, which i agree with, then mcginley sq would naturally follow by proximity to path. heights would be last bc its further from the path. development is based purely on proximity to mass transit.

Posted on: 2013/3/1 12:56

vindication15

Re: McGinley Square Revitalization - Will anything ever happen?

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all areas eventually improve.

0-5 years till downtown is developed
5-10 yrs till journal square is developed
10-15 years till the heights is developed
15-20 years till mcginley square

I would put some money on those estimates

Posted on: 2013/3/1 4:58

Sam112

McGinley Square Revitalization - Will anything ever happen?

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Haven't heard anything about the McGinley Sq Redevelopment ever since St. Peter's pulled out of the deal. What do you think? Is it down for the count? Any sense if the area will ever improve ... or even get a decent supermarket?

Posted on: 2013/3/1 4:51

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