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Just can't stay away
 
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2007/8/1 16:17 Last Login : 2011/5/18 20:12 From Harsimus Cove
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Yeah, Bewster, those "fantasy cities" are certainly the product of boundless wealth. And what really makes that type of clock tick is the nearly limitless disposable income amounts being shoveled offshore. Hey, if you can afford to fearlessly invest in some foreign beachfront paradise where property values seem to remain untouchably secure - I can't see why some Silicon Valley CEO wouldn't. And the developers may even throw in political upheaval or the threat of revolution for free
Posted on: 2008/1/22 15:48
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We are what we pretend to be. So we must be careful what we pretend to be - Vonnegut
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Home away from home
 
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Geoff, I know this is near your area of expertise, but I would have thought the deluge of cash raining on oil producers would have to go offshore again immediately, they can't domestically invest anywhere near that much, no? That's why there's pictures in the paper of sheiks planning fantasy cities, because they have more cash than they know what to do with.
Posted on: 2008/1/22 2:31
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Just can't stay away
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Recovery in the real estate depends almost solely on the availability of liquidity and credit in the market. The sources of both appear to be drying up world-wide in the nearest term. Time will tell how deep the pause will be.
Posted on: 2008/1/21 20:26
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Home away from home
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Just a reminder from the past about the lengths to which the powers that be will lie to keep the sheeple grazing on pastures of ignorant bliss...
The Great Depression 1929-1932 Headlines: September 1929 ?There is no cause to worry. The high tide of prosperity will continue.? - Andrew W. Mellon, Secretary of the Treasury. October 14, 1929 ?Secretary Lamont and officials of the Commerce Department today denied rumors that a severe depression in business and industrial activity was impending, which had been based on a mistaken interpretation of a review of industrial and credit conditions issued earlier in the day by the Federal Reserve Board.? ? New York Times October 29 1929 Stock market crash December 5, 1929 ?The Government?s business is in sound condition.? ? Andrew W. Mellon, Secretary of the Treasury December 28, 1929 ?Maintenance of a general high level of business in the United States during December was reviewed today by Robert P. Lamont, Secretary of Commerce, as an indication that American industry had reached a point where a break in New York stock prices does not necessarily mean a national depression.? ? Associated Press dispatch. January 13, 1930 ?Reports to the Department of Commerce indicate that business is in a satisfactory condition, Secretary Lamont said today.? ? News item. January 21, 1930 ?Definite signs that business and industry have turned the corner from the temporary period of emergency that followed deflation of the speculative market were seen today by President Hoover. The President said the reports to the Cabinet showed the tide of employment had changed in the right direction.? ? News dispatch from Washington. January 24, 1930 ?Trade recovery now complete President told. Business survey conference reports industry has progressed by own power. No Stimulants Needed! Progress in all lines by the early spring forecast.? ? New York Herald Tribune. March 8, 1930 ?President Hoover predicted today that the worst effect of the crash upon unemployment will have been passed during the next sixty days.? ? Washington dispatch. May 1, 1930 ?While the crash only took place six months ago, I am convinced we have now passed the worst and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover. There is one certainty of the future of a people of the resources, intelligence and character of the people of the United States ? that is, prosperity.? ? President Hoover June 29, 1930 ?The worst is over without a doubt.? ? James J. Davis, Secretary of Labor. August 29, 1930 ?American labor may now look to the future with confidence.? ? James J. Davis, Secretary of Labor. September 12, 1930 ?We have hit bottom and are on the upswing.? ? James J. Davis, Secretary of Labor. October 16, 1930 ?Looking to the future I see in the further acceleration of science continuous jobs for our workers. Science will cure unemployment.? ? Charles M. Schwab. October 20, 1930 ?President Hoover today designated Robert W. Lamont, Secretary of Commerce, as chairman of the President?s special committee on unemployment.? ? Washington dispatch. October 21, 1930 ?President Hoover has summoned Colonel Arthur Woods to help place 2,500,000 persons back to work this winter.? ? Washington dispatch.
Posted on: 2008/1/21 19:37
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I think the low point for the Manhattan and surrounding area real estate market will be in 2009, and after that regardless of the direction of the rest of the country, New York and Co., will be back to increasing property values. That said, doubt Manhattan will lose value over the next 24 months, but will probably slow its appreciation rate considerably, and Brooklyn and Queens and Jersey City may temporarily lose a small bit of value off of the peak, it will quickly come back by 2010/11
Posted on: 2008/1/21 19:24
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Home away from home
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This is the hope of all bitter renters. Welcome to 2008! 
Posted on: 2008/1/21 19:02
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You make an excellent point, and one that I ignored by focusing on what a rational person would do. If someone lacks the disciple to save then they will simply blow the money they could save and invest better by renting instead of owning. That's why the main assets that most people in the U.S. will have as they approach retirement are their house and their pension/401K. People who are going to live in the same place indefinitely and always run out of money before they run out of "month" perhaps should buy despite likely losses over the next couple years. It's a form of forced savings.
One can easily buy REIT mutual funds but they usually own apartments and office space (which are doing a lot better than houses, BTW). One can also buy futures and options on single home prices based on the S&P Case-Schiller Index, even one specific to NYC. That's the real way to profit if one is so sure/insane to believe that they can predict short term changes in housing prices. So there are ways to obtain exposure to real estate even if one rents and the main problem, from an investment standpoint, of buying is that home ownership usually makes a leveraged bet on local real estate a huge part of one's portfolio. That's risky, even if it sometimes works out. Finally, I don't see any reason that a big decline in house prices would lead to an even bigger decline in equities. Quote:
Posted on: 2007/10/5 2:18
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Actually, the bottom was 97, 92 was merely the end of the freefall. There was continued price stagnation, which means inflation losses in real dollars through the end of 96. Those banks may have croaked here, but there was a nationwide boom and bust cycle closely matching the recent one. It's simply what markets do. Check out this page, it's a compilation of news abstracts chronicling the rise & fall of that market. http://njrereport.com/80sbubble.htm The real lesson is if you want safety don't bet you can time a market, any market! residential RE is usually a good investment, as long as you're in it for the long run of at least 5-10 years, not the short flip. The advantages of taxes and leverage are usually left out in the returns comparisons to equities.
Posted on: 2007/10/4 21:21
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Home away from home
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Quote:
What really happened in the early 90's that mattered to the real estate market was that several investment banks went out of business: Drexel Burnham Lambert, Kidder Peabody, etc. The bottom of the NYC real estate market was 1992. Quote:
The financial services industry is in much better shape today than it was in the late 80's. They have learned a few lessons. Quote:
Deficits are irrelevant for economic growth (or interest rates for that matter): the economy grows when budget deficits are increasing or decreasing. There have been recessions when budget deficits were increasing or decreasing.
Posted on: 2007/10/4 19:40
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a) I hope the economy does really well. If the economy does well, houses might cost more, but I'll probably earn more, too, so things will equal out. b) The trillion-dollar question is, obviously, what the mortgage market problems and other problems are going to do to the financial services community as a whole. Example: the Asian markets slump in the late 1990s and the post-9/11 slump didn't do much to hurt the real estate market here, but, of course, the 1987-1992 real estate tax form bill/savings and loan crisis hurt the market here quite badly. One good thing is that most financial people remember the 1987-1992 and understand how we got out of it, and I think that increases the odds that we'll muddle through this time around. On the other hand, what we had going for us in the late 1990s and in 2002 is that Clinton and Congress were doing a good job of controlling budget deficits, which gave us extra wiggle room. Now, we're running up a lot of debt, and I think it's hard to know how all of that extra debt is affecting the mortgage markets and the rest of the economy.
Posted on: 2007/10/4 16:29
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What I could buy/when: Of course, it's hard to know what I could buy (or where I could safely locate my cardboard box) during a deep recession. Right now, I think I could afford to buy something fine in the Heights. Why I talked about the recession: I'm not bitter at all. I live a miraculously comfortable life, and I rent mainly because of sloth. But I was just trying to convey the idea that, even if someone DOES believe the housing market will crash, buying a house to live in is probably a better choice than renting for anyone who ought to be buying a house in the first place. If someone is making $20,000 a year, plans to move to Alaska in 2 years, and would be taking out a weird wacky mortgage loan to buy the house, clearly, that person shouldn't be buying a house today -- and shouldn't have been buying a house 5 years ago. But if someone is making $100,000, wants to stay in Jersey City for 10 years, and would be getting a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage or some other sensible mortgage, and that person can come up with a 10% down payment and meet the other requirements imposed by a responsible mortgage lender, then that person probably ought to buy a house. The exception would be if the person making $100,000 is an ultra-responsible person who really would use an automatic withdrawal system to "save the difference" between the rent and the mortgage, then would invest the money saved in some kind of great, diversified, low-expense stock fund. Ultra-responsible people who really would invest the difference probably ought to go with their gut feelings, or consult a Ouija board or flip a coin or something like that. My guess is that even the typical ultra-responsible person who would save the difference would really be better off buying a house. One fact we're not including in this discussion is that, of course, it's more fun to own a house. You can paint the walls however you want and decorate the garden and all that, and you might feel a lot more as if you're part of your community, not just a long-term visitor. So, once you factor the psychic benefits in, I think the home buyer who uses a fixed-rate mortgage will usually come out ahead. The one exception is if you, say, buy a home downtown, and the economy is so bad that people flee and your neighborhood turns into a terrible ghost town populated mainly by street gangs. But, if we go back to the kind of desolation that occurred in the 1970s, then I think a lot of other things will also be wrong with the economy, and it will be very hard to know whether stocks, bonds and commodities will do any better than housing.
Posted on: 2007/10/4 16:13
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Home away from home
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There are many things that make the NYC metro area different than the rest of the country. First and foremost is the fact that the number one driver of the economy here are the financial markets. With most market indices hitting or close to new highs, one can't make the argument that it's in bad shape. Also, interest rates are relatively low. The low dollar means foreign companies will continue buying US companies. The credit market issues are a negative factor, but not an overriding factor.
The financial industry generates more wealth than practically any other industry in the US. This wealth makes its way (dare I say trickles?) through the entire NYC metro economy, including Jersey City. Yes, investment bankers won't buy in Jersey City, but someone who works for or owns a business providing services to a company that provides services to investment bankers might. In my opinion, if you want to know what's going to happen to JC real estate in the near term, look at the financial markets first and manhattan real estate prices next. If both of these look strong, there isn't much risk in our neck of the woods. Those of you wishing for a real estate market crash better wish for major financial industry debacle, not just a problem here or there.
Posted on: 2007/10/4 14:38
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Just can't stay away
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Mike_55s: I don't think it makes me cool, I just happen to like Caddyshack and My-T-Fine Pudding. If you haven't tried either I think you ought to.
Regarding both of th articles you post, they do paint a very rosey picture for the Manhattan market, and I agree that we benefit from it's success, but they both acknowledge that there is already a national housing slump going on, and try to suggest that Manhattan is different. First of all, we're not Manhattan, the bonuses and foreign dollars won't be as influential over here. There are also fears that the bonuses won't be as big this year, meaning that there would be even less to go around. Second, one of the articles points to the co-op boards contribution to maintaining "value" by restricting riskier buyers. That's not going on over here so much. We're going to have a lot of inventory come into this market in the next few years, just as the credit rug is getting pulled out from under a lot of buyers. In the last few years, our heads have been filled with the notion that our houses are "investments" and that they will continue to gain value and be a source of leverage indefinatly. Where are all the buyers going to come from? How are they going to pay for a half million 1 br walkup? Wages aren't climbing as fast as prices did.
Posted on: 2007/10/4 11:50
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Myth: Pancakes are for breakfast.
Fact: There are no rules when it comes to pancakes. |
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Newbie
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Um Jako - Definitely not a fan of your footer signature thingy or whatever that is. WTF is that suppose to mean as if it has some sort of coolness factor to you.
"I've sentenced boys younger than you to the gas chamber. Didn't want to do it. I felt I owed it to them. " k sure guy. Also not sure if you renters got a chance to see the most recent articles, but thought you might be interested in the following: Manhattan housing boom continues MANHATTAN CONDOS $KYROCKET
Posted on: 2007/10/4 3:13
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Just can't stay away
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Nothing about alb's post was bitter or had a hint of schadenfreude (love the big words). I understand that the state of the housing market hits pretty close to home for many of us, but dismissing someone's opinion of what's down the road as simply the words of a "bitter renter" isn't going to change what may or may not happen, and doesn't really offer much in the way of dialogue. I think alb's numbers may be a bit extreem, but at least she's offering some reasoning behind her statements.
Personally, I'd be surprised if we didn't see some sort of correction in the near term. Credit's probably going to tighten and the notion that the housing market is invincible seems to finally be losing steam. I think alot of what we've seen recently hasn't been appreciation in housing value, so much as inflation due to easy money and hype. Prices ought to drop for awhile. Granted, we all seem to have short memories, so who knows when things might get crazy again.
Posted on: 2007/10/4 1:43
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Myth: Pancakes are for breakfast.
Fact: There are no rules when it comes to pancakes. |
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This is the hope of all bitter renters. If this really happens we would be in a deep recession and you'd lose your job so you still wouldn't be able to buy anything.
Posted on: 2007/10/4 1:11
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I'm a renter who thinks that the national housing market will go through a terrible crash that will last for years and that the local market will do better, but a lot worse than it's been doing these past few years. But, anyhow, I agree that there might be better investments in the next year or two than real estate. The problem is that people are often better at talking about saving the difference between the rent payment and the mortgage payment than they are about actually saving the difference. Another concern is that, even if real estate does poorly, other investments could do a lot worse. If real estate here went down 30 percent, for example, it seems to me that the stock market could go down 50 percent. If people want to put money in real estate as an investment, I think they should figure out a way to dollar cost average money into real estate (is there such a thing as an exchange-traded REIT? if so, maybe that), not dump a $500,000 lump sum into a hideous pinkstone apartment in the Heights today. But if someone has down payment money and has a real choice between renting an apartment and buying a comparable home with a 30-year fixed mortgage, I think buying a home probably makes more sense, even if the home still seems overpriced. If nothing else, owning a home with a fixed mortgage can be a great hedge against inflation, and our federal government has good reason to want to try to "just go out and print money" to pay for the Iraq war. The worst thing that could happen would be that home buyers will lose their jobs and go through foreclosure proceedings, but, if they lost their jobs, they'd probably be evicted from their apartments, too, if they were renting. If anything, maybe the government is more likely to figure out some kind of program to help people avoid foreclosure than it is to help people avoid eviction.
Posted on: 2007/10/3 21:23
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There are actually people moving to Bergen Avenue?
Posted on: 2007/10/3 20:57
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Not too shy to talk
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Look, our decision to move to Jersey City involved a lot of factors none the least of which was that renting in Brooklyn for a family of 5 involved forking over $4200 a month (Prospect Heights). A $5500 a month mortgage payment here is actually a savings after the tax write off, even with the property taxes. We also have a place to cook out and I don't have to set my internal clock for Alternate Side Parking. AND the commute to midtown for my wife is 30 minutes shorter and I don't have to suffer on the MTA to Penn Station to go to New Brunswick to teach. Now if only the kids from across Bergen Ave wouldn't roll in a wolfpack on Friday nights looking to kick ass on yuppies.
Posted on: 2007/10/3 1:59
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A correction followed by a long period of no gains, which seems a reasonable guess at the future, amounts to a pretty bad investment when one considers inflation and the opportunity costs of not using one's money to invest elsewhere.
Rather than predicting short term trends, I think people should consider the costs of owning vs. renting a similar place. It's a lot cheaper to rent now and as long as these fundamentals are so out of whack it's hard to not see ownership prices coming down and/or renting costs going up (most likely both) so that they converge at some unknown point in the future. Also in terms of predicting the future, the supposed immunity of the greater NYC market is due to a booming Wall Street and how it drives the economy here. That will be a double edged sword if (when) there's a big downturn in the earnings of financial firms. Quote:
Posted on: 2007/10/2 23:28
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I'm sure that in almost every 'burb in the country you can see the same headlines:
REAL ESTATE PRICES DROP EVERYWHERE BUT HERE! Newspapers owe a lot of their revenue to real estate sales and they put the "proper" spin on these stories. Yes, they are dropping/will drop in Jersey City just like they will drop in Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, Bronx. Staten island and Morristown.
Posted on: 2007/9/29 13:31
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My "Foxton is bankrupt" post got moved from its own header into the "which broker would you pick?" thread.
Anyhow, if you have any interest in Foxton or real estate brokers in general, you should be looking on Google News for articles about Foxton.
Posted on: 2007/9/28 18:33
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Just can't stay away
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I gotta say, Taz's posts aren't all that bad when he's actually writing, and not just posting links and snappy one-liners.
Posted on: 2007/9/28 18:05
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Myth: Pancakes are for breakfast.
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But at least they're charging reasonable enough rents relative to the foot traffic that they have some of the sorts of shops that Newport people needs. All poor Paulus Hook has is Downtown Pharmacy and a liquor store. Quote: Having kept an eye on RE broker & banker trends, I assure you that the lender rules changed drastically as the going got tougher to keep the real estate express on task. This is clearly true. Did you see the articles about Foxtons going down the tubes? Quote: In the mean time, back at the ranch, the Chinese, Koreans, East Indians, etc. etc. have jumped square in the middle of capitalism and produce products for pennies on the dollar vs. CURRENT U.S. production costs. On the one hand, you're sort of right. On the other hand, in my opinion, this is the sort of thing that will sort of work itself out, over the long run. One important factor is that the Indians and Chinese are not superhuman and have all sorts of problems and costs of their own. Once all of the walk-on-water-level Chinese and Indians who used to be oppressed start their businesses, and the regular Chinese and Indians get into the game, they will look more like regular folks. Example: my friend's husband went straight to India to hire Indian engineers for an outsourcing project (for sentimental reasons, not cost-cutting), and he had a very hard time finding qualified engineers. I think the big problem is if sea levels rise 10 or 20 feet in a few years. That would cause some serious systemic real estate market problems.
Posted on: 2007/9/28 17:28
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Home away from home
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Quote:
"Tortoise" landlords like the LeFraks, who are willing to accept lower rents to keep space filled with local companies, probably will collect about as much rent in the long run as "hare" companies that insist on collecting high rents from national chains but end up with empty storefronts about half of the time. Actually the LeFraks are quite pricey compared to other areas in JC  IMHO the national chain-store phenom is turning communities into a corporate hell-holes with no individual cultural difference... Strip malls from see to shining sea! Oh BTW, nice non-sequitur response to the bankrupt *GAME-OVER* post I made I'm not surprised that's the only response to my apropos comment on what's REALLY going in the US Economy... I know that I keep going here, but?the housing downturn and the fact that a rebound is not appearing on the even distant horizon, goes much further than housing. Wages have not kept up with home prices; by a lot. Having kept an eye on RE broker & banker trends, I assure you that the lender rules changed drastically as the going got tougher to keep the real estate express on task. Not so many years ago, a buyer could not exceed 25% of gross monthly income for a house payment. That was after putting 20% down!! Today. . .some folks in the USA are north of 65% gross income to home debt service, with no, -0- skin in the game. In the mean time, back at the ranch, the Chinese, Koreans, East Indians, etc. etc. have jumped square in the middle of capitalism and produce products for pennies on the dollar vs. CURRENT U.S. production costs. (I?m getting to the point). At this juncture, what are the chances that wages will be increased (called inflation) for the American worker? As we westerners say , Slim and None, and Slim left town. This being said, where are the QUALIFIED BUYERS going to come from to absorb the new construction? China? Don?t count that possibility out. America is for sale. Ask the 210,000 people who lost their jobs in industry thus far this year (which of course doesn't count the est. 1-2 million illegal immigrants in RE construction). 
Posted on: 2007/9/28 16:16
Edited by TaZMaNiO on 2007/9/28 17:00:26
Edited by TaZMaNiO on 2007/9/28 17:05:11 |
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One example of the effects of this is the thread about shops that should/could go into Grove Pointe. Someone pointed out that, in real life, if Grove Pointe wants to make decent money with the retail space and not just improve residents' quality of life, it has to rent the space to a Starbuck's, a chain drug store, or a bank branch, or maybe some other chain store. That's because national companies can get cheap, easy money from Wall Street, and local companies have to borrow through credit cards at exorbitant rates, even when the local companies are well run and profitable. To some extent, that's normal, but, if this keeps up, the chain stores will become lazier and lazier. More and more of their "profits" will be the result of creative accounting. At some point, we'll go through a correction, and a lot of the national retailers will shut down entirely or merge. "Tortoise" landlords like the LeFraks, who are willing to accept lower rents to keep space filled with local companies, probably will collect about as much rent in the long run as "hare" companies that insist on collecting high rents from national chains but end up with empty storefronts about half of the time. Residential communities like Paulus Hook and (apparently) downtown that are dominated by commercial landlords with a hare mentality will suffer, because they won't have the kinds of toy stores, pet shops, card shops, etc. that you need to support an acceptable quality of life.
Posted on: 2007/9/28 15:03
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Home away from home
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Actually, RE prices have ALWAYS been tied to incomes...if incomes drop in JC so will RE prices.
Of course the late great RE bubble was a complete speculative nightmare and had nothing to do with wage inflation, except in NYC where "to the moon" took on a whole new meaning... Specifically, the NYC area (which sort of includes JC) has been living high on the credit bubble party since Sir Greedscum and his banker buddies decided to give everyone with a heartbeat access to easy money. Always nice to be the top parasite and NYC thoroughly plundered the inflationary market and unfortunately for the money for nuthin', chicks for free generation, those dayz are over. They forgot to actually reinvest in "capital investments" that would carry the economy forward past fraudulent get-rich schemes and now a HUGE bill is coming due with no one left to pay it! Personally I think it couldn't happen to a better bunch of folks... The question is, what does the future truly hold for sheeple that don't have a clue how to compete in the global marketplace?  The Senate voted 53-42 to raise the debt ceiling to $9.815 trillion, the fifth increase in the U.S. credit limit since President George W. Bush took office in January 2001. The U.S. House of Representatives approved the higher debt limit earlier this year as part of the overall budget resolution and the legislation now goes to Bush for his signature. "We have no choice but to approve it. If we fail to raise the debt ceiling soon, the U.S. Treasury will default for the first time in its history," said Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus. Can you say B-A-N-K-R-U-P-T, I knew you could
Posted on: 2007/9/28 5:54
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Re: JC Real Estate Market Recent Activity
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Not too shy to talk
Joined:
2007/7/2 22:44 Last Login : 2012/10/8 4:55 From Hidden Valley
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Registered Users
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This is a different story for every different area of the country.
I understand the cost of a mortgage now vs 2 years ago and that is a reasonable concern..for the people who can't afford their mortgage. I however think there are a lot more people who can't afford what they got themselves into in other parts of the country than here. Even if they did they would be much more likely to get themselves out here as apposed to other parts. Now JC has different areas, but I think as a whole it is going to be GREAT. Like I said before. Jersey City is just now becoming a viable and attractive location to live for the biggest city in the country....I think that will offset any increase in typical buying deterrents.
Posted on: 2007/9/28 3:30
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Re: JC Real Estate Market Recent Activity
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Quite a regular
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The JC real estate market is really two markets, downtown and the rest of the city. I live in Paulus Hook and realtors are calling me begging to sell my apartment because the demand for apts in my neighborhood outstrips supply.
Posted on: 2007/9/27 11:25
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Re: JC Real Estate Market Recent Activity
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Newbie
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Jersey City can't be put in the same category as the rest of the country and RE prices will probably not drop but rather remain flat for a few reasons.
Take the 20 - 30 something generation right now. 10 years ago they would never consider living in Jersey City if it were a choice between JC, Manhattan, Hoboken or elsewhere. There are enough people that are being priced out of those areas and now are having a "second think" about living in Jersey City. That will sustain enough demand to buy places. Jersey City has been behind the curve when it comes to prices for a number of years and over the past 10 years has been catching up so to speak. In 2000 a 750 square foot, 2 bedroom apartment in Hoboken would so for about $280,000 whereas you could get a simular one downtown for about $150,000. Now the prices are a lot closer (maybe $400k v's $300k). Jersey City still has an element of added value on prices per sf which is still enough to attract folks here not that wouldn't consider JC a few years back. While existing market conditions (ie countrywide flat RE market, rising interest rates etc) may be contributing factors to prices being flat of downwards slightly my first 2 points above should be factors why Jersey City RE prices will be stronger than most other places.
Posted on: 2007/9/27 10:38
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