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Re: Considering a move from DT to JSQ or Heights - any tips here?
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Home away from home
 
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It's not always about the buck or the drive. Location, location, location. DT is nice, not denying that but I like the Heights it has more for me here along with what DT has. Downtown can be congested, confusing, crowded, confined, and at times impulsive.
Posted on: 2014/11/2 13:50
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Get on your bikes and ride !
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Re: Considering a move from DT to JSQ or Heights - any tips here?
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It's so hot down there in DTJC, you could even say it's on fire. The next rain storm will flood the place and cool it all back down to normal soon.
Posted on: 2014/11/1 13:53
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Re: Considering a move from DT to JSQ or Heights - any tips here?
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Oh I see! You are talking about money! So I guess if you don't live in hot DTJC, your existence isn't as important as the hot people who live there. It must be nice to live in what you consider Nirvana. (I guess I should be jealous?)
Posted on: 2014/11/1 6:49
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Re: Considering a move from DT to JSQ or Heights - any tips here?
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It's hot because 1) Price per sq ft in DTJC is much higher than in other neighborhoods (Exception being Newport) 2) Most of the new construction in JC has and will still continue to occur in DTJC 3) Most of the new businesses (excluding liquor stores and bail bond stores) in JC are opening in DTJC 4) Most of the press in the mainstream media (ie. NYT) mention DTJC So for those reasons, I would categorize DTJC as being hot.
Posted on: 2014/11/1 4:01
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Re: Considering a move from DT to JSQ or Heights - any tips here?
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What makes you think downtown is the ""hot" spot right now"? That is PR and realtor's talking. IMHO , of course.
Posted on: 2014/11/1 2:40
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Re: Considering a move from DT to JSQ or Heights - any tips here?
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I've done this walk too many times and it took me 20 minutes. I find google maps estimates to be conservative, and they estimate it to be 22 mibutes from Ogden to Hoboken Path.
Posted on: 2014/11/1 1:51
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Re: Considering a move from DT to JSQ or Heights - any tips here?
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Posted on: 2014/11/1 1:37
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Re: Considering a move from DT to JSQ or Heights - any tips here?
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Yes. As I said, it's based on neutral cashflow model, in which the building pays it's bills but no more. a 4x return (owning 100% after 15 years) is 9.4% (compounding monthly). That's ignoring the fact that the dollars paid at the end of the mortgage are worth less, and rents always go up, even if values stagnate.
Posted on: 2014/10/31 22:46
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Re: Considering a move from DT to JSQ or Heights - any tips here?
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Newbie
 
Joined:
2014/10/21 17:00 Last Login : 2015/11/13 20:45 From Riverview Fisk
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My house to the Hoboken PATH is 1 mile. Are people in downtown that decrepit that a mile takes > 20 minutes.
Here's a handy Google map: 1 mile people! And on a bike it is literally downhill all the way. https://www.google.com/maps/dir/100+Steps/Hoboken/@40.7379901,-74.054916,14z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m14!4m13!1m5!1m1!1s0x89c257430b039527:0x3c9a91639ce4c0c2!2m2!1d-74.0445065!2d40.7404778!1m5!1m1!1s0x89c259e21289d317:0x27bcceec83114acf!2m2!1d-74.02922!2d40.73586!3e2
Posted on: 2014/10/31 19:35
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Re: Considering a move from DT to JSQ or Heights - any tips here?
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20 minutes from 100 steps to Hoboken PATH? Maybe if you are running. The Heights doesn't have the 24/7 transportation that JSQ or DTJC have.
Also I agree DTJC isn't fully gentrified, there are plenty of sad looking blocks especially west of Jersey, the whole area by Pathmark still waits, there's new buildings by the tunnel and Powerhouse but still plenty of vacancies as well.
Posted on: 2014/10/31 19:27
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Re: Considering a move from DT to JSQ or Heights - any tips here?
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Some reasons to entertain moving to the Heights:
1. No floods - very significant 2. An amount of space not available downtown and never will be 3. Value has plenty of room to go up over time 4. Several properties have NY skyline views from the top 5. Much lower taxes and maintenance fees The area by Riverview is undergoing brisk changes as I write this. You should see for yourself instead of relying on anything else. It is all about what suits YOU. All areas of JC have pros and cons.
Posted on: 2014/10/31 18:31
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Re: Considering a move from DT to JSQ or Heights - any tips here?
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Just can't stay away
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Well I'll miss your lovely optimistic sunny face Monday morning vind-guy. I have a good nose and the jitney's I've been on do not smell and the bus drivers of the 87, the 123 etc are WAY MORE SCARY in their speeding--I mean driving habits than the jitneys. I've never seen one that I've been on do anything wrong driving-wise. It must be tough to navigate New York if you're that afraid of speeding because you must avoid all NYC cabs as well.
I believe in statistics but show me statistics for the Riverview area of the Heights specifically and then I'll take heed.
Posted on: 2014/10/31 18:02
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Re: Considering a move from DT to JSQ or Heights - any tips here?
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Is the OP still following this? I am not overly savvy about real-estate, so I'm not going to opine on the forecasts and what to expect in terms of the value of your investment appreciating if you choose to buy, but I'll share my experience - I bought a 650 s.f. "loft" condo in one of the better established conversions in the Heights in '08. According to Wells Fargo, it's less worth than my mortgage balance; according to Zillow it's worth less than what I paid for it - so be careful if you and the GF are considering buying a condo.
If you will be traveling a lot to Manhattan, take heed of a variety of comments. If you are ONLY going to midtown Manhattan for work and nothing else, than your experience will be closer to Bunny's, and you will probably never complain about your commute. If your work, like mine, takes you to City Hall in Manhattan, or go into other neighborhoods on weekends, your experience will be more like vindication15's and mine. Door (Sherman Avenue and Franklin Street) to desk (Chambers and Centre Street) is easily 50 minutes to 1 hour. Weekends, door to barstool (Boxers, 50th & 9th) is also over 45 minutes. IMO, the biggest thing holding the Heights back is the mass transit issue. So think about how important access to ALL of Manhattan is to your lifestyle.
Posted on: 2014/10/31 17:41
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Re: Considering a move from DT to JSQ or Heights - any tips here?
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http://www.zillow.com/research/zestimate-forecast-methodology/
Geographical Coverage and Historical Forecast Accuracy Currently the Zestimate forecast is available for more than 50 million individual properties spanning 550 counties across the United States. The predictive accuracy of these one-year forecasts was assessed by back-testing the model over the past five years. Back-testing consists of running forecasts on historical data where the forecasted value is produced from out-of-sample data. The below table summarizes the average absolute percentage error of the 12-month forecast. The average is taken over all properties. This forecast error is compared to a naive forecast based on a simple random walk model, and to simply extending our county forecast to individual properties. The construction of a property-specific forecast significantly improves accuracy. Model Average Absolute % Error Improvement over Na?ve Na?ve Forecast 7.35% 0% County Forecast 6.47% 11.9% Zestimate Forecast 5.84% 20.5% Less than 10% error. I'm sure 5 years ago the same argument you are making now for DTJC, people made for NYC. They would be wrong now and in 5 years, I believe you will be too. I don't know the exact growth but I know DTJC has not yet peaked - far from it.
Posted on: 2014/10/31 16:51
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Re: Considering a move from DT to JSQ or Heights - any tips here?
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Brewster, I'm curious. Do your calculations factor in all costs such as NJ's enormous property taxes and maintenance?
Posted on: 2014/10/31 16:48
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Re: Considering a move from DT to JSQ or Heights - any tips here?
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Zillow is utterly unreliable as far as our area, as far as I can tell. It has no idea how to price multifamilies, and the "Zestimates" are extremely unstable. You are correct The Heights will never be more valuable than DT, but you just don't understand the relative rate of change thing. from roughly 86 to 2006 Downtown doubled every 7 years for 20 years, that rate will never be seen again. But other less gentrified areas might.
Posted on: 2014/10/31 16:44
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Re: Considering a move from DT to JSQ or Heights - any tips here?
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I'm talking to a person who doesn't believe in statistics or averages and thinks the jitneys don't smell and the drivers of the jitneys obey all traffic laws. I think I'm going to end there.
Posted on: 2014/10/31 16:40
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Re: Considering a move from DT to JSQ or Heights - any tips here?
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I'm going to pass. I don't think I would take the jitney if the ride was free. Hell, I wouldn't even take it if they paid me.
Posted on: 2014/10/31 16:38
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Re: Considering a move from DT to JSQ or Heights - any tips here?
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Just can't stay away
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A death machine that smells of urine? Really? First, they don't smell and they're not dangerous but I suppose you never take the subway either because THAT smells like urine. And I suppose you must avoid walking down the streets of midtown in humid August when EVERYTHING smells like garbage. Maybe you're not cut out for urban living.
Posted on: 2014/10/31 16:36
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Re: Considering a move from DT to JSQ or Heights - any tips here?
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I'm specifically speaking of the Riverview area of the Heights so screw your averages and your statistics. It's actually Zillow's statistics and averages but nice to know what type of discussion you want about this. If we are not basing anything on actual numbers than let me state for the record that every home in DTJC will be worth 10 million dollars more than what it is worth today. I didn't think of the jitneys as a viable method of transportation since you know - I would assume no one would want to sit in a vehicle that smells like urination. I was talking about commute to a PATH station or a NJ transit bus but yes, if you want to ride in a death machine that smells of urine then it may take you less time to reach your destination, if you live through the ride.
Posted on: 2014/10/31 16:32
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Re: Considering a move from DT to JSQ or Heights - any tips here?
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Just can't stay away
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Hey vind guy. I'll meet you Monday morning at the bus stop at Riverview Park and you can test it for yourself!
Posted on: 2014/10/31 16:29
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Re: Considering a move from DT to JSQ or Heights - any tips here?
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Just can't stay away
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I am not lying about 30 minutes door to desk. THE JITNEY IS ALWAYS 20 MINUTES TOTAL AT THE HEIGHT OF RUSH HOUR. Today, I caught the 8:30 and arrived 3 minutes before 9 am. My offices happen to be at 40th and Broadway. The jitney lets me out at 40th and 8th avenue. My house is a 4 minute walk to the park. . Getting home takes 5 minutes longer. I leave the office at 5 and am home at 5:35. The jitneys go straight thru the bus lane and avoid all that traffic.
I'm specifically speaking of the Riverview area of the Heights so screw your averages and your statistics. The heights will be worth more because they have further to go than downtown. People used to say the sun never shines in Hoboken. Brownstones sold for $50,000 in the 70's. It takes time but being pioneering gentrifier requires patience.
Posted on: 2014/10/31 16:25
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Re: Considering a move from DT to JSQ or Heights - any tips here?
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One other thing - DTJC has not peaked or reached maximum gentrification.
Liberty Harbor North and the Powerhouse Arts District is still being developed and far from being gentrified. Newark Ave is far from being gentrified, not as far from it than central ave though. DTJC has not yet peaked until it reaches the same occupancy levels as Manhattan. This is good for the heights though as your property values will rise along with DTJC
Posted on: 2014/10/31 16:20
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Re: Considering a move from DT to JSQ or Heights - any tips here?
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Let's go to the numbers - you know those factual things everyone hates. http://www.zillow.com/downtown-jersey-city-nj/home-values/ http://www.zillow.com/the-heights-jersey-city-nj/home-values/ The median home value in Downtown Jersey City is $566,700. Downtown Jersey City home values have gone up 5.5% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 3.1% within the next year. The median home value in The Heights is $311,200. The Heights home values have gone up 2.5% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will fall -0.1% within the next year. I do admit I was exaggerating with the commute time. However, it takes at least 30 mins to get from the heights to midtown via public transportation. I live in DTJC and my commute to midtown is 30 minutes so no - anyone who tells you it takes less than 30 minutes door to door to midtown is not telling you the truth. And yes, it takes like 10 minutes to get to NY from the heights - if you are commuting at 3AM on a weekday. There are benefits to living in the heights but as far as it being a better investment than DTJC, no, it is not. That is factual, not subjective. I do concede you get more space at less cost though. DTJC's fate and property values are tied to NYC. The Heights fate is tied to DTJC. The heights will never, ever (sorry taylor swift) be worth more or appreciate faster than DTJC. The good news is at least you are not GV or BL.
Posted on: 2014/10/31 16:13
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Re: Considering a move from DT to JSQ or Heights - any tips here?
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Newbie
Joined:
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I have to say that the myriad parks, combo of Pershing Field pool/rink, all the little martial arts studios and the kids-related businesses in Hoboken make this a super easy place to raise kids. My husband and I walk my niece and nephew around to all this stuff because I'm always giving my in-laws gift certificates for local kids classes for Christmas/birthdays.
Posted on: 2014/10/31 15:46
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Re: Considering a move from DT to JSQ or Heights - any tips here?
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Newbie
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Living in Riverview (or the tail end of Union City) is pretty much the same as living in the back half of Hoboken, but at half the price, which makes/made it more accessible to a more diverse crowd than Hoboken. Most people in the new, hilariously named "Upper Grand" neighborhood of Hoboken are also taking the bus or HBLR, not walking 20 to 25 minutes to the single PATH station. The Heights, at least, has the advantage of the jitneys over NJ Transit...the 123 and 126 bus lines at PABT (filled with Weehawkenites and Hobokenites) are awful and I'm glad I don't have to stand in them regularly. The HBLR is pretty much choked these days if you get on past 8:30 am/2nd Street.
Also, if you live within a 5 minute walk of the 100 steps, your walk to the Hoboken PATH is actually sub 20 minutes. It also happens to be a 5 minute bike ride, another option I like in the summer. Did anyone see that the awesome single family house right next to Modcup was on sale this year? We don't need the space, or another house, but we came so close to buying it just for the view. I really envy whoever nabbed it. I'm calling first dibs on the Van Vorst farmhouse as soon as it comes on the market, though. The Heights has a friendly, relaxed, artsy vibe (for now). The houses are actually really nice...on the inside. Too much garbage on Palisade, still. And the schools are still crap, except 1, which crept into the range of mediocre. If you move in, consider joining the RNA, it's a good place to get involved and meet others. The other neighborhoods I was very tempted by were Astor Place and Weehawken.
Posted on: 2014/10/31 15:37
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Re: Considering a move from DT to JSQ or Heights - any tips here?
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Yeah, V has no idea what he's talking about with relative appreciations. Gentrification's like when you start a sport or game, you can increase your score tremendously at first, but then you hit a long tail where gain comes much slower. A partially gentrified area has more growth potential than a fully gentrified, in part exactly because it also has risk of loss or poor growth potential. Lafayette and lovely nearby areas like Astor and Monticello and has been breaking investors for decades now with stubborn refusal to get over the hump. I'm sure it's day will come, but that's why the gentrifying game is speculation.
Is the Height's "over the hump" yet? I'm hoping, but my 2004 purchase has not yet definitely risen past purchase price. But "buy and hold" rental investing actually works without appreciation. I calculate over a 9% return on cash for a property that flows no cash with 25% down on a 15 year note. And that's not accounting for depreciation and interest deductions, and rising rents over that time.
Posted on: 2014/10/31 14:46
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Re: Considering a move from DT to JSQ or Heights - any tips here?
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Quite a regular
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Vindicaton - WTF are you talking about?
Some reality check points: 1) Your downtown house will not appreciate faster than your house in the Heights. Downtown is at top scale. Buy now and the best you will do is break even. Maybe a small profit. You want to make some real money, buy in the Heights. Extremely affordable houses with back yard space and parking. I?ve already flipped two properties and have put over six figures in my pocket. You will never see that again downtown. EVER. 2) 45 min to NYC...What?? Do you even know where the Heights is? I can walk from Ogden Ave. to the path station in 18 min. I?m in my office in midtown in 30 minutes. If the 87 bus shows up on time, I can get there in 20. 3) Drive everywhere? Are you serious? How about you can walk everywhere. I?m one minute to Hoboken off Ogden. Pershing field right up the street. Ice skating, swimming, baseball, yep, we got it. Stop and Shop around the corner, Supremo down two blocks. Now granted, Central Ave is not in any way, shape or form, Grove Street, but is has all the essentials for quick shopping. 4) Lastly, the Heights right now is booming. I?m a 25 year resident who moved up here out of school and never left. It was never bad before, it?s not bad now and will not be bad in the future. It?s haters like Vindication who have no idea of the area yet comment like they are experts. I now live in a brownstone that would?ve cost over a million dollars in Hoboken/Paulus Hook, $800,000 in Hamilton Park/Van Vorst. I?m too embarrassed to tell you what I paid for it. I will put another $100,000 in my pocket when I sell it. Yes we have all the problems that come with living in a city but it?s also as safe as Jersey City can be. That?s what the Heights has done for me. And outside of the filth of our streets (which is citywide). I love it up here. Not everyone can afford to live downtown. If you are looking to buy property, this is the place.
Posted on: 2014/10/31 13:47
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Re: Considering a move from DT to JSQ or Heights - any tips here?
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Home away from home
Joined:
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On present, I agree that the house Downtown has more value. However, the growth potential still remaining downtown is not as exponentially possible as those outside of it. The ?value buys? are out there. I?ll also add that with Uber, a bicycle, bus, etc, getting downtown really isn?t that terrible. Heck, the walk could be as short as 30 minutes. Personally, I?m not in the Heights as I didn?t see what I liked there. However, I took the same approach that many here are talking about? buying low in an emerging area. I?ve been pleased with my investment. I?m sure many of those that did the same are equally pleased.
Posted on: 2014/10/31 13:29
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Dos A Cero
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Re: Considering a move from DT to JSQ or Heights - any tips here?
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Just can't stay away
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I love the jitney. They come like clockwork on Palisade every 25 minutes. I walk 2 blocks to Riverview Park and I'm at 40th and 8th Avenue in 20 minutes--door to door from my house to my desk it's literally 30 minutes. And there's Stop and Shop and if you venture down the elevator to Hoboken there's that massive Shop Rite so in my section of the heights you don't need a car at all unless you're too old and sedentary to get some fresh air and move your body a little bit.
Posted on: 2014/10/31 13:12
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