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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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Home away from home
 
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4-5 years ago valuations were way off. They've improved a lot in the last couple of years. My bet is they've started parsing the building descriptions on the property cards like - 2S-F-D-2U-H - which tells a lot about the property. You're right about sq footage - and putting that against every property should be an essential part of the reval. Hit those ones in the first round - easy to guess which are under assessed. Zoom in on the Zillow map and you'll find valuations for virtually every property. Zillow Hamilton Park A gov agency using private company data? The reval itself is contracted out to a private firm. Third-party data would only be used to figure the sequence - each property would still need to be appraised as part of the process.
Posted on: 2015/12/2 23:30
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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Home away from home
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That's not the point! It's not that the city would be rewarding people who let their homes fall into disrepair. The matter is one of fair taxation. In EVERY OTHER CITY IN THE US, property taxes are assessed by applying a given percentage (the "property tax rate") to the market value of the home. This is not rocket science.
Posted on: 2015/12/2 22:50
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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So you should be rewarded with lower property taxes by letting your house fall into disrepair. Are zip codes outside of 07302 using less city services?
Posted on: 2015/12/2 22:08
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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Home away from home
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bodhipooh, I don't' see why you bother. It's not that they actually dispute the numbers as far as I can tell, it's that they don't see a need to do anything about it. It works for them. Or you get people like Yvonne who bring up unrelated stuff like abatements into the discussion to cloud the issue. That's like someone saying the boiler could be more efficient when you tell them to shut the freaking door and stop letting in the cold.
Posted on: 2015/12/2 21:40
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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Here you go. This is something I had posted in another thread. It includes properties recently sold in 07302 and then a few from 07304. I am sure this list could be enlarged to include at least 20 properties in each zip code, but I am afraid you will find more or less the same disparity shown below. DTJC (non abated properties) 220 Columbus Sold: 1.05 MM Tax: 11K Effective rate: 1.05% 342 5th St Sold: 714 K Tax: 8.6K Effective rate: 1.2% 317 10th St Sold: 907 K Tax: 10K Effective rate: 1.1% 222 Grand Ave Sold: 1.35 MM Tax: 9K Effective rate: 0.67% (!! talk about criminally low assessment!) 656 Jersey Ave Sold: 1.6 MM Tax: 14.6K Effective rate: 0.91% (another winner!) A handful of properties in 07304: 249 Randolph Avenue (bought and flipped after extensive renovations) Sold in April 2015 for 98,4000 Taxes on that value were $4,669 The effective rate: 4.74% 363 Randolph Ave (similarly as the one above, bought and flipped for profit) Sold in December 2012 for 84,000 Taxes on that value were $3,161 Effective tax rate: 3.76% 145 Harrison Ave Sold: $207,500 Taxes: $4,542 Effective tax rate: 2.19%
Posted on: 2015/12/2 20:03
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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They're so far off on any property I've looked at it's ludicrous, particularly multifamilies. And they don't even have listings for many properties. Most of the time they don't even know that they ARE multifamilies. Even rudimentary appraisals need number of rooms and bathrooms, plus gross sq footage. Trulia & Zillow do not have that info. Perhaps recent construction condos are more accurate, I don't know. And that's totally sidestepping the issue of a government agency using data derives by private companies using proprietary algorithms.
Posted on: 2015/12/2 18:36
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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Pick any JC address. Trulia or Zillow give a reasonable estimate of current value - irrespective of when they were last sold. A staggered plan is no more complex than moving to a more frequent reval - which is what we should be doing. A safety net would be good - but it's more about getting assessment valuations right factoring in the impact of higher taxes. Also politically - no-one is going to lose any sleep over those massively under-assessed properties being hit first.
Posted on: 2015/12/2 17:47
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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This would only capture recent sales. A property sold 25 years ago paying 1% of current value would be missed. The whole point of the reval is to capture current valuations of the whole city. I'll say again, if you want an elaborate plan to ease the pain and keep people in their homes, bonding tax liens on the increase would work just fine. It would allow homeowners to kick the can down the road till sale or death, and still give the city it's cashflow.
Posted on: 2015/12/2 16:46
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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I did a tiny, microscopic version of that in a post a week or two ago. The difference in effective rates is quite clear and shocking, even. Anyone could pull data for the 100 most recent sales in 07302 and compare to 07304 and 07305. There are a few properties in the 07304 and 07305 area that, at first look, seem to be paying an appropriate tax rate, but that's only after extensive renovations that brought the current market value to a level that matches the tax that was being paid on a property that was worth a lot less.
Posted on: 2015/12/2 16:04
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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Logistically - it would mean taking a feed of data from Trulia or Zillow, and targeting the top 10% of under-assessed properties - then picking an equal value of over-assessed properties. Net income to the City should be close to zero. That should wipe out a huge part of the problem - those $10k+ underpayers would be caught in the first round. A rough plan might be: Year 1 - 10%/10% over/under Year 2 - 20%/20% over/under Year 3 - 20%/20% over/under + reset equalization rate to ~1. That way - you can spread out the pain a little - the assessments, the forced sales, the price swings and the appeals process. The market value at a single point in time doesn't factor in the impact of increased/decreased taxation post-reval - if your own affordability formula is correct. With a phased approach - house prices citywide would start moving to a post-reval norm after year 1. On the lack of activism - I wish someone would map the discrepancies. It's easy to pull valuation and tax data on properties. Even a simple under/over by zip would be shocking.
Posted on: 2015/12/2 12:47
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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Don't let your fellow Conservatives hear you saying such Socialist things! Actually was just listening to a podcast interview this evening partly about how delusional Americans are when it comes to what gets subsidized and what doesn't, including how we massively subsidize roads with non gas tax funds (socialism). As for the PA, they've spent a century looking for cashflow to expand their empire rather than creating service. That they reluctantly own the PATH is an unusual artifact, I expect nothing from them. Strong Towns is an often great podcast by a guy who is a road engineer apostate, who now preaches through the nonprofit he founded that sprawl development drains small cities rather than aids them. Most of these places wish they had our development problems, but we share a lot of the same problems, like overemphasis on parking. http://shoutengine.com/StrongTownsPodcast/who-pays-for-roads-10138
Posted on: 2015/12/2 4:08
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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Actually, we DON'T have a regional TRANSIT authority. The Port Authority is only in the transit business because of the PATH, and that wasn't their choice. If we had a regional transit authority, things would be much better. As things stand, we have a series of agencies, some with competing interests, none of which can seem to bring themselves to cooperate with each other. And, I am not sure why you think Brewster heard wrong. The 4/5/6 line *is* a royal mess in the mornings. You get packed in worse than the PATH. And, the L train is another shitshow during commuting hours. That was the point he was trying to make. Of course, the PATH can also be a mess at times. I find that, often times, space IS available in the cars, but people act like assholes by choosing to stand by the doors, not moving into the cars to allow room for others. Maybe three doors per side would have been a better design choice, instead of the current two door setup. Also, the PA should consider adding "standing room only" cars to some trains. They could install multiple poles to which people could hold on during the ride.
Posted on: 2015/12/2 3:59
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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You heard wrong. At rush hour, many PATH trains are literally filled to capacity and you have to wait for a new train to come. And it's only going to get worse as the thousands of new units become occupied. Agreed about the government being stupid about not subsidizing ferries, but part of that is because they look at it as not their job (don't we have a regional transit authority that everyone hates who is supposed to do that?), with another part being they won't be around long enough to face any real consequences for their inaction. But it's not hyperbole, the PATH situation is going to get really bad in the next couple years.
Posted on: 2015/12/2 3:04
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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Didn't say that, but there's a lot of variables in that one. It would take a full blown crisis to affect values, the frog in the pot scenario causing it seems less likely. From what I've heard the Lex subway makes the PATH look roomy at rush hr. I like to think that enough demand on the waterfront will change governmental attitude towards subsidizing ferry service. I see no reason why we subsidize roads and rails to lubricate the economy, but not ferries. It's simply scaling up the concept of all these outlier developments having free shuttle vans to the PATH. Access is good for business. Developers are being smart, but government stupid and short sighted.
Posted on: 2015/12/2 2:49
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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The PATH problem is in doubt? Let us see, my pretty! And your little dog too.
Posted on: 2015/12/2 2:31
Edited by jmcee on 2015/12/2 2:47:57
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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I have my doubts about this often repeated theory. It would make perfect sense if we were a self contained market, but we're not. There's tremendous pressure coming from across the river where the rents in Brooklyn and Queens are skyrocketing. Thousands of new units here is a drop in that bucket 32x our size. Now, they're building over there too, but the demand is huge. I can't see the already lower rents here going down without a market wide correction.
Posted on: 2015/12/2 1:46
Edited by brewster on 2015/12/2 2:05:47
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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I forgot to include the thousands and thousands of (abated) new rental units coming up for rent in DTJC putting downward pressure on rents at least temporarily for the next few years and the impending PATH problems at Grove and Xchange.
Posted on: 2015/12/2 1:31
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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I have to say that this thought has crossed my mind. It is definitely uncertain to try and divine what will happen, and when it will happen. I am sure some people would appeal to the government to postpone the reval until the interest rate uncertainty is cleared up, but that is just another excuse to keep the status quo in place and avoid dealing with the inevitable. The reval needs to happen. Wishing it doesn't is pure folly: after 27 years, we are WAY OVERDUE. Since the county has looked the other way, the state is now stepping in. The city will be forced to do the reval in the next year or two. Perhaps the city will try to delay the court proceedings into 2017 to avoid any impact on Fulop's expected run for governor, or re-election campaign for mayor.
Posted on: 2015/12/1 20:02
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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The prospect of interest rates going up at the same time as a reval could be the double whammy on prices as these folks who have been under-paying rush to sell. Will the all cash buyers (I'm looking at you Dixon) come in and save the day. We shall see.
I moved to Hoboken right after the reval and I must say the air smells cleaner there. Good luck with your lawsuit Steve.
Posted on: 2015/12/1 18:10
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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I understood your question, but was confused by the idea you suggested. I am not sure how it could be done logistically. And, ethically, it seems to be on shaky ground. Protecting a group of homeowners by shafting others seems rather uncool. Particularly in light of the fact that the homeowners being protected have already benefited for many, many years by the inefficiencies of the current system. In fact, the current homeowners that have benefited (to the tune of $10,000+ per year!) should be elated that the reval and tax situation has gone on for so long without much noise from other groups. As I said before, I am really, really surprised by the lack of attention from so called community activists (and elected representatives) in the areas that would benefit most from a reval. The suggestion that going through with a reval now would upend the market and lead to serious devastation sounds like a lot of FUD. It is no different than when the economy crashed and the banks responsible for the crash declared "well, we kinda screwed up, but you can't hold us responsible and punish us, because then the economy could crash even more." It's time to bite the bullet and just get it done. It would bring much clarity to the local RE market and give some areas a fighting chance to see improvements and gentrification.
Posted on: 2015/12/1 16:49
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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I would never say there's no sharks in RE, but most of them are sellers. It seems to me to be pretty hard to game as a buyer, especially a non-corporate one. Certainly advocating for a reval after 27 years is not much of an aggressive business plan. When you buy a property, at least it's physically there, you can hire an inspector to look at it, an appraiser to price it. Stocks and bonds you are just taking their word on it's health and buying on an ephemeral market valuation. Can I interest you in buying a 2005 vintage AAA rated CDO? Shares in Enron? How do you see this issue and/or the general market being manipulated by RE interests, and what regulation would you like to see?
Posted on: 2015/12/1 16:08
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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And under-regulation in the property markets makes it no less of a shark tank?
Posted on: 2015/12/1 4:35
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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Tee hee, you think I'm a shark because I've bought 3 properties in 18 years? Hardly. I have no plans to buy another soon, especially Downtown where rentals would have to halve in value before GRM's were rational. In fact, the reval will cost me a lot in taxes, but better get it over with now than later, since I have no plan to cash out and run like Yvonne did. My view of the stock market is it's a shark tank where everyone but the banks and hedge funds is the meat. I'm utterly unimpressed with the captive regulators and their "too big to jail" overlords. Insider trading has now been legalized in all but name, after being the not so secret business model of the hedge funds for decades. High frequency trading is so obviously scamming everybody in the market but the big players, and does nothing to provide liquidity to industry. I stay out of casinos like that, in fact I avoid casinos.
Posted on: 2015/12/1 4:22
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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Nope. Different market, better investor protection, IRS doesn't pull the rug that often. You're positioned better than most to profit from the disruption of a JC reval... that's a red flag. Put it another way. Most average Joe's wealth is tied up in their home and not the stock market. Where's their CFPB? FINRA? Market regulators? Who protects average Joe from sharks like you?
Posted on: 2015/12/1 3:48
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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You may be right that a slow approach could be better, but that's not how the system is set up, and it's asking thousands of homeowners to keep paying way higher taxes than others to protect the value of those others property. Blame the people who have kicked the can down the road for so long till the can is thermonuclear. I don't buy the "go boom" theory of RE markets where a market drop for tax reasons in one area would hurt the market that has seen it's taxes drop. RE is number driven and operates at glacial speeds compared to equities where herds spook and run in milliseconds. People look at what they can get for their money. After a tax driven drop, for the buyers nothing changes, it costs the same as before to own the home. The area is still just as desirable. That market will cool for a while as sellers are slow to adjust their prices to the new reality, but they will, just as prices eventually adjusted post 2008. Also, I know a lot of the people who have lost bidding wars to the cash players will cheer if they get driven from the DTJC market. Quote: knowing how you invest - you'd be happy to pick the carcass of other people's losses. Right? Buy low, sell high. Do you keep out of the stock market after a "correction" out of empathy for the investors who just lost their money?
Posted on: 2015/12/1 3:10
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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Home away from home
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2005/6/8 3:24 Last Login : 2022/11/28 0:04 From New Urbanist Area
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Yet another anonymous hit job.
The "Fulop favors downtown" meme has ran out of gas. Yes, downtown has had a large increase in values and many properties go up, particularly on properties that were owned people who gamed the tax appeal process and paid ridiculously low taxes for a brownstone on Van Vorst Park. But there are undervalued and overvalued properties throughout the city. Most notably the Mayor's own residence in the Heights (which the anonyblogger talks a lot about, apparently not concerned that it undercuts his "Fulop only cares about downtown conclusion). If the reval were exclusively concentrated downtown, it may have favored the Mayor if he let it go through immediately. Most people would realize that this was just one more f.u. that prior administrations gave us, and given that this is his base he probably could have weathered a political hit a few years later. But there will be people in the Heights, Journal Square, and even Greenville that in for a nasty shock. But there is no doubt that the reval is disruptive and toxic for whoever is caught holding the hot potato. People whose taxes will go up will blame whomever is in power. People whose taxes will go down will simply say "I was entitled to it anyway" I still think allowing the reval to go through, despite potential flaws, was better than putting it off yet again. Nevertheless it was at the very least questionably done, with the prior Mayor begging to delay it after the 2013 election, and then the council awarding it to a firm where the former B.A. landed.
Posted on: 2015/12/1 3:06
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Home away from home
Joined:
2004/2/6 23:13 Last Login : 2021/7/30 1:08 From Jersey City
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of course the reval will be disruptive and may cause hardship for those that were not proactive, but it will only get worse the longer we wait. we are becoming the "best mid-size city" for lack of equitable property taxes, surely, not a "just" city.
this post says it all. Quote:
Posted on: 2015/12/1 2:54
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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And what you don't get - is the economics of house valuations aren't a simple math equation of affordability to an individual buyer. What's the covariance between property tax rates and house valuations in JC? Don't know? Neither do I. What I do know - if you can make a change iterative and incremental - like Fed tapering - you can adapt, respond and improve the process - rather than punching taxpayers in the face with one hit. Higher taxes in the "hot" sections of JC may kill off REIT, cash buyer and developer interest across ALL of JC. A higher tax shock - double in many cases - mean properties will get dumped - lower values - lower total cash chasing new properties. That's how markets can crash. But knowing how you invest - you'd be happy to pick the carcass of other people's losses. Right?
Posted on: 2015/12/1 2:30
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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What you don't seem to get is that it doesn't need to be more desirable for values to go up. They go up as function of taxes going down and therefore affordability going up, followed by prices, till equilibrium is once again reached at a higher price point but the same cost to own.
Posted on: 2015/12/1 1:44
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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Do we really have to start giving "credit" to every byline we come across in order to share something that is valuable information ?
Posted on: 2015/12/1 0:33
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Get on your bikes and ride !
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