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Re: Governor of NY Warning of Worst Economy in Decades...
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One other thought,

The pollsters are telling us that the reason Obama does not have a clear lead is that he is not doing well with white women over 40.

As long as money donations remain private or at least not available to the public, it will never be able to tell us something like that.

Posted on: 2008/7/30 17:53
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Re: Governor of NY Warning of Worst Economy in Decades...
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ianmac47 wrote:
Quote:


Simply put, you are wrong.



As you, yourself, have pointed out there is no empirical data.
We will have to agree to differ.

Quote:

Money is still the best indicator of future performance as an aggregate data set. It is not one hundred percent accurate, but it is a pretty good indicator.


Because money helps to determine the outcome. Near election day, is money a better indicator over recent poll data? No.

Posted on: 2008/7/30 17:38
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Re: Governor of NY Warning of Worst Economy in Decades...
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Quote:

sinik wrote:
I dont believe the internal campaigns are more accurate in their polling than the large polling organizations which are not part of the media. For local areas, sure the internal campaigns are likely to be more precise.


Simply put, you are wrong.

Quote:

A lot more people are going to vote than give money. Money is only an indicator of those that give money to campaigns. Money also effects the outcome but it wasn't much of an indicator in the last few democratic primaries.


Money is still the best indicator of future performance as an aggregate data set. It is not one hundred percent accurate, but it is a pretty good indicator.

Posted on: 2008/7/30 17:22
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Re: Governor of NY Warning of Worst Economy in Decades...
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Quote:

trp3 wrote:
I'm simply telling you why polls are worthless.


I am not particularly impressed with the way they are carried out.
However, I have to judge them on their results. Despite the seemingly feeble methods, they are surprisingly accurate when it comes to the last few days of an election (there is no way of evaluating interim polls). Not only do they get the result right many more times than not, they also are good in predicting the margin.

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This fact alone completely alters the demographic of who is participating in these polls.


Not really, and certainly not 'completely'. You only really want to poll people that are likely to participate in an election. Excluding a group of people who coincidentally vote the least would actually improve your result.

Posted on: 2008/7/30 16:39
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Re: Governor of NY Warning of Worst Economy in Decades...
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"So we should prefer your 'finger in the air' method over any polling data, then?"

uuuhhhmmmm......no buddy. And I'm not suggesting I have a better method for this or am more knowledgable. I'm simply telling you why polls are worthless.

Quote:
Landlines are called also, and many young adults have cell phones only.


it is illegal for a pollster to call a cellphone. the only line they CAN call is a landline. BUT, I'm glad you mentioned this, because it yet again displays how unreliable these polls are.

This fact alone completely alters the demographic of who is participating in these polls.

Posted on: 2008/7/30 16:00
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Re: Governor of NY Warning of Worst Economy in Decades...
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ianmac47 wrote:
Media polls are mostly irrelevant. The only polls with enough accuracy to make a difference are the internal campaign polls that the public never sees.

The better indicator anyway, is money raised and cash on hand, both in Obama's favor.


I dont believe the internal campaigns are more accurate in their polling than the large polling organizations which are not part of the media. For local areas, sure the internal campaigns are likely to be more precise.

A lot more people are going to vote than give money. Money is only an indicator of those that give money to campaigns. Money also effects the outcome but it wasn't much of an indicator in the last few democratic primaries.

Posted on: 2008/7/30 14:21
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Re: Governor of NY Warning of Worst Economy in Decades...
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Pollsters conduct plenty of telephone interviews, but don't hold your breath. For a typical AP-Ipsos poll, about 1,000 adults are interviewed.


Landlines are called also, and many young adults have cell phones only.

BACK TO Thread: Worst economy in decades. Definitely bad, but it's all relative. Politicians use doom and gloom to insulate themselves when their own solutions and policies prove to be ineffective before the next election cycle.

Posted on: 2008/7/30 14:13
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Re: Governor of NY Warning of Worst Economy in Decades...
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trp3 wrote:
Quote:
If you dont pay attention to polls, I am not sure how you can know what 'most people' in any particular group are thinking.


Taken from The Associated Press, the last two sentences being of highest importance:

"Q: How can I believe polls when I never get called?

A: Pollsters conduct plenty of telephone interviews, but don't hold your breath. For a typical AP-Ipsos poll, about 1,000 adults are interviewed. The Census Bureau says there are about 228 million adults in the U.S., so the odds of getting one of those calls are one in 228,000. That's about twice as likely as the one in 500,000 odds the National Safety Council says a person has of dying by accidentally falling from a building in a year. Also, remember political polls are not predictions of who will be elected. They are snapshots of sentiment in a long campaign."

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5j2 ... jKzR8x7N96phLg7QD92817400

with that said, consider how polling is actually done. you know as well as I do that presidents are elected when they win the right states, meaning those states with the largest number of electoral votes. is this factored into polling results? are they making more phone calls to California, NJ, Florida, Ohio, etc.?

our voting system itself is corrupt, meaning a poll to predict the results of a corrupt voting system is senseless.


So we should prefer your 'finger in the air' method over any polling data, then?

Posted on: 2008/7/30 14:09
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Re: Governor of NY Warning of Worst Economy in Decades...
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Quote:
If you dont pay attention to polls, I am not sure how you can know what 'most people' in any particular group are thinking.


Taken from The Associated Press, the last two sentences being of highest importance:

"Q: How can I believe polls when I never get called?

A: Pollsters conduct plenty of telephone interviews, but don't hold your breath. For a typical AP-Ipsos poll, about 1,000 adults are interviewed. The Census Bureau says there are about 228 million adults in the U.S., so the odds of getting one of those calls are one in 228,000. That's about twice as likely as the one in 500,000 odds the National Safety Council says a person has of dying by accidentally falling from a building in a year. Also, remember political polls are not predictions of who will be elected. They are snapshots of sentiment in a long campaign."

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5j2 ... jKzR8x7N96phLg7QD92817400

with that said, consider how polling is actually done. you know as well as I do that presidents are elected when they win the right states, meaning those states with the largest number of electoral votes. is this factored into polling results? are they making more phone calls to California, NJ, Florida, Ohio, etc.?

our voting system itself is corrupt, meaning a poll to predict the results of a corrupt voting system is senseless.

Posted on: 2008/7/30 13:51
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Re: Governor of NY Warning of Worst Economy in Decades...
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Quote:

sinik wrote:
Are they? Obama is still below 50% in all polls despite his visit to EAME. McCain is even ahead in some polls


Media polls are mostly irrelevant. The only polls with enough accuracy to make a difference are the internal campaign polls that the public never sees.

The better indicator anyway, is money raised and cash on hand, both in Obama's favor.

Posted on: 2008/7/30 13:42
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Re: Governor of NY Warning of Worst Economy in Decades...
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I think the nicer brownstones in downtown JC are the barometer to watch. Most single family buyers are looking to plant roots and thus will think about pricing a lot more than these couple years in and out condo buyers. A lot of brownstones around Mercer/nicer part of Wayne were hitting 1.2mm mark in 2006. Now seems like they've peeled back a bit to shy of 1.1mm. My guess is that given recent rate upticks, you may start seeing them move around 1mm.

It seems the brownstone craze that has gripped Brooklyn since 2000 was slow to start here. My sense is last up is first to roll back over. If schools were good, better govt , PATH service decent, etc I'd have more confidence...

Posted on: 2008/7/30 13:31
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Re: Governor of NY Warning of Worst Economy in Decades...
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If you dont pay attention to polls, I am not sure how you can know what 'most people' in any particular group are thinking.

Myabe you didnt mean 'most people', but 'most people that I know'

Posted on: 2008/7/30 11:21
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Re: Governor of NY Warning of Worst Economy in Decades...
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sorry, I have been misunderstood.

what I was saying was "most of the people that are supporting Obama are supporting him because....."

as far as what the polls say, I have no idea. i hardly ever pay attention to them, they change every day.

Posted on: 2008/7/30 11:10
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Re: Governor of NY Warning of Worst Economy in Decades...
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trp3 wrote:
let's face it......most people are really supporting Obama


Are they? Obama is still below 50% in all polls despite his visit to EAME. McCain is even ahead in some polls

Posted on: 2008/7/30 10:40
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Re: Governor of NY Warning of Worst Economy in Decades...
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"My main concern is that America is SO besotted with "Comrade Obama" at the moment."

let's face it......most people are really supporting Obama because they are terribly afraid of McCain, which would be another 4 years of GWB politics/economics/foreign relations/Iraq War tactics.

Posted on: 2008/7/30 9:50
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Re: Governor of NY Warning of Worst Economy in Decades...
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A lot of speculators have over extended themselves for sure - (it's called financial Darwinism in action, folks!)

All the smart money that I know is buying at the moment. Miami and Vegas are down 30% from 2007. Jersey City has always been undervalued compared to the 5 boroughs - so although volume is down, the lights aren't even flickering here. But in some regions the real estate market is finally getting interesting. After a 5 year hiatus - I'm finally looking to buy something, because great deals are actually starting to appear in the suburbs. I'm looking at deals in Westfield and Montclair that are down 50% in 12 months! Residential demand is huge there but people don't have either the balls or the financial backing to buy. This is making the rental market very strong.

My main concern is that America is SO besotted with "Comrade Obama" at the moment. I just don't get it? This socialist bimbo has nothing to offer entrepreneurs, investors or basically anyone making in excess of $200k.

Obamas proposed capital gains taxes are going to kill any reason to buy property. The real estate market is going to be pretty flaky between now and November.

Posted on: 2008/7/30 9:09
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Re: Governor of NY Warning of Worst Economy in Decades...
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So what exactly is your point? Yes, i agree, the $9.4 trillion in federal debt is a huge problem that NO ONE talks about - but you can make that point without mangling everything else...no?


So sorry, but from my vantage point this is a systemic problem...I call it the iFraud Generation

While it is true that the current POTUS has taken the ship down the river to the edge of the falls, I predict that whatever politico is elected in November, whether crony capitalist party (R) or (D), the result will be the same - We've reached the point of no return & the good ship USS Lollipop is going over the falls...

"We Da People" have been acting like drunken sailors with hyper-extended lines of credit for FAR, FAR TOO LONG.


Posted on: 2008/7/29 4:36
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Re: Governor of NY Warning of Worst Economy in Decades...
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Sounds like the governor is doing the smart thing. Revenues have gone down, expenses such as education and health care have gone up. Well its time to be fiscally responsible and tighten up the belts. This happens all the time in the private sector, the government should do the same thing also. Its better then the alternative, they could just raise everyone's taxes to make up for the short fall in revenue. I think that would just compound this economic slowdown.

Posted on: 2008/7/29 3:50
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Re: Governor of NY Warning of Worst Economy in Decades...
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I've said it before - We are heading for a DEPRESSION not a recession (if we aren't already there)

Plan for the worst and pray for the best !

Posted on: 2008/7/29 3:38
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Re: Governor of NY Warning of Worst Economy in Decades...
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So let me see if i follow...you posted a story about NY's state Deficit and in your response you're pretty much only talking about the national debt. And to tie things all together, you make some sort of vague relationship between all that and the democratic candidate's middle name?

I'm not sure, but if we are talking FEDERAL deficits and you want to point fingers at people, perhaps you should look to the current inhabitant of the White House, who has seen his budget deficits balloon in each subsequent year he has been in office. Indeed he passed one of the largest entitlement spending increases on record with the "Medicare Perscription Drug Benefit." And having our army deployed half way around the world is certainly not helping with fiscal responsibility as that costs a ton of cash.

But if you want to talk about STATE budgets, I'd be curious to know what this "medding" you're referring to is? Patterson's trying to slash spending... when you have record budget shortfalls isn't that what you're supposed to do?

Your comments about the GSEs are nonsensical.

So what exactly is your point? Yes, i agree, the $9.4 trillion in federal debt is a huge problem that NO ONE talks about - but you can make that point without mangling everything else...no?

Posted on: 2008/7/29 3:16
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Governor of NY Warning of Worst Economy in Decades...
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ALBANY - Gov. Paterson, convinced the state faces its worst fiscal crisis since the mid-1970s, will deliver the grim news in an unprecedented special address to New Yorkers as soon as tomorrow night, The Post has learned.

The governor's address - which his aides hope will be televised by public and cable news stations - will say that plunging state revenues will force painful cuts in state services, necessitate a reduction in the state work force, possibly through layoffs, and require other difficult economic measures, source said.

Paterson is also expected to announce that he's ordered state agencies to slash spending beyond the relatively modest 3.3 percent cuts he ordered in late spring.

City 'Kitty' Bound for Crisis Too

Fall Fashions Show Depression-Era Chic

He may also call a special session of the Legislature to propose reducing some of the record-high levels of spending that were approved as part of the state's new budget in April.

"The situation is worse than anyone realizes," said a source close to Paterson.

"The governor has said he's tired of the state going from deficit to deficit, spending like it has a credit card that never has to be paid, and that he's prepared to take action," the source said.

Paterson in recent days has huddled with budget planning officials from the administrations of former Govs. Mario Cuomo and Hugh Carey "to get their ideas on how to manage a fiscal crisis," the source said.

To make his concern even clearer, Paterson will hold a private meeting today with Columbia University's Nobel prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz, the former head of the World Bank, who has called the current worldwide financial crisis the worst since the Great Depression.

"The governor has been impressed with Stiglitz's work, and there have been staff discussions leading to the meeting Monday," said an administration source.

Paterson warned last week that Wall Street bonuses - a major source of state tax revenue - will likely drop by 20 percent or more this year.

A day later the state Financial Control Board said New York City's projected two-year deficit had grown by a whopping $4 billion because of Wall Street losses and the economy's overall decline.

The governor's own budget experts are slated to present an updated financial plan with sharply lower projected revenues on Wednesday.

Spendthrift New York City almost went bankrupt in 1975-76 and the state defaulted on some of its bonds at the same time in the worst fiscal crisis to face New York since the Great Depression.

While state and city leaders pledged to assure the prudence of future fiscal practices, that pledge was largely abandoned during the past 20 years as officials ran up state spending at two or three times the inflation rate because of sharp increases in education and health-care spending.


And you think RE prices are reasonable now?!?

You ain't seen nothing yet, we're only in the second inning of a game that now looks like it's going into overtime thanks to gubermint meddling

P.S. The monthly interest charges on the national debt just passed $42 BILLION avg., that means we'll be breaking 1/2 TRILLION $$$ just to service the debt on the books for 2008, just wait until the GSEs programs start guzzling taxpayer bailout funds under Prez Hussein "We Are Da World" Obama!!!


Posted on: 2008/7/29 2:28
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