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Re: Coronavirus is now in Hudson County
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Home away from home
 
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If we're going to pick about numbers, lets start with the absurdity of those "mortality rates". The infection rates used are mostly for confirmed cases. Tested cases. In a situation where there's been nowhere near the kind of testing to get reliable numbers. Most epidemiologists say there's something north of 4 unreported subclinical/subcritical cases for every confirmed. So if you took the number around for a while of 2.5%, in reality it's 0.5%. Bad, a lot of people unnecessarily dead, but not an 8% fatality rate.
Posted on: 2020/3/19 20:26
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Re: Coronavirus is now in Hudson County
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Thanks for the link! It's actually a pretty nice doc in that it lays out a lot of data in very simple terms. What the document describes is that they took data from 355 deceased (out of the 2003 that have died so far) and they presented a breakdown that shows 99% of that sample had other pre-existing conditions. They don't explain if the sample was random, or what else, but the breakdown indicates that of those 355 deceased patients, almost half (172, or 48.5%) had 3 or more pre-existing conditions, while one quarter had 2 pre-existing conditions, and another quarter had one pre-existing condition. More interesting/telling is that the median age of diagnosed is 63, and that of the deceased is 80.5. People younger than 60 are hardly represented in recorded deaths, accounting for only 3.5%.
Posted on: 2020/3/19 20:24
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Re: Coronavirus is now in Hudson County
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I know math is not your thing, and common sense seems to be lacking as well, so any further explanation is probably a waste oof time. But, I will try again: if we were to suffer a similar outbreak (~61 MM people infected) and the current mortality rate holds, we are looking at close to a million people dead. That's a HUGE number. That's why people (and, the world) are going "ballistic". Now, imagine we were experiencing a mortality rate like that of Spain (5%) or Italy (8%) and we would be looking at total deaths between 3 and 5 million people if this thing was to spread to 61 MM people. That's why people are panicking and why governments all over the world are reacting with such strict measures. Other health matters haven't seen those kind of numbers when it comes to mortality.
Posted on: 2020/3/19 20:07
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Re: Coronavirus is now in Hudson County
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Anyone fluent in Italian? Here is a breakdown of deaths in Italy.
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavir ... OVID-2019_17_marzo-v2.pdf Per a Bloomberg article, 99% of the fatalities were already suffering from some other illness.
Posted on: 2020/3/19 18:08
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Just can't stay away
 
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you will never get it. but keep us entertained with your empty head pecking at the keyboard.
Posted on: 2020/3/19 16:36
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Re: Coronavirus is now in Hudson County
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My favorite economic sideshow is how this is going to affect the shale plays. I've been hearing for years none of it was ever actually profitable, that it was all basically a debt fueled Ponzi scheme. So while right now energy prices are in freefall, the recovery may be with no fracking and virtual banking subsidy of energy prices. Great for alternative energy in the long run, but no the short. The other big story is how irresponsible corporate America has been with it's 'boom money", making Trump happy by raising stock prices at all cost. They not only put their tax windfall money into buybacks, they actually borrowed deeply to buy back stocks and give dividends to make the usual suspects wealthier. That's not what rational Capitalists do, it's the MO of corporate raiders. WTF has happened to American Capitalism? Milton Friedman basically destroyed it. We've become of nation of grasshoppers, having no idea how to save for a rainy day on an institutional level.
Posted on: 2020/3/19 15:30
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Breakdown of the deaths / recoveries in Wuhan, if you feel like getting into the statistical weeds....
https://www.thelancet.com/action/showP ... KvchBRDSxFRMpBuQeKyuBj6OU
Posted on: 2020/3/19 15:13
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The point being, no one cared when this happened in 2009. No one cares when public schools get notices that children coming from immigrant homes are bringing in measles and TB among other diseases but for some reason the world goes ballistic over corona. Why were they silent on other health matters?
Posted on: 2020/3/19 14:55
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And who are you talking to shit for brains?
Posted on: 2020/3/19 14:44
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Just can't stay away
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like talking to a wall it was explained to you. are you not getting enough oxygen to your head? ????
Posted on: 2020/3/19 4:48
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What's your point? That nobody do anything and let Coronavirus spread to millions of people and kill even more?
Well yeah, 60 million infected and over 12 thousand dead is the result of inaction and unpreparedness. Here's to hoping history won't repeat itself.
Posted on: 2020/3/19 2:34
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Home away from home
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60 plus million people is one in five people infected in the US. That is a lot, especially those with compromised immune systems. H1N1 infected many children, too.
Posted on: 2020/3/19 2:00
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And to add to your smart explanation; the medical infrastructure is not prepared to deal with the extreme symptoms of this particular virus. When it goes bad, it goes bad fast requiring intubation. Combine that with a bad flu year and our medical resources are seriously strained. Just stay home please. And stop complaining if you can stay home in relative comfort. There are people who are really suffering out there - and will continue to suffer well after this is over.
Posted on: 2020/3/18 23:15
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Re: Coronavirus is now in Hudson County
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Sigh. Lately, I find myself having to tell (and, explain) why numbers without context mean next to nothing. Yes, in the US 61 MM were infected, but only 12.5K died from it. That puts its mortality rate at 0.02%. By comparison, at a global level, the coronavirus mortality rate currently stands at 4%. Domestically, so far, the coronavirus mortality rate has held steady at about 1.5%, which means it is 75 times more deadly than H1N1. THAT is why containment is important.
Posted on: 2020/3/18 22:15
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Why was H1NI that infected 60 million in the US and 14,000 died was considered no bid deal in 2009? Nothing shut down.
Posted on: 2020/3/18 20:42
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Millennials may be at a higher risk for catching coronavirus, official says
MDM - I think the mall is shuttered. Call the store to see if they'll deliver for you. Folks - if you aren't already, please take the self-isolation warning seriously. The more we do now, the quicker this will be over. I'm watching what's happening in Paris right now (we have family there). Police are on the street issuing $135 tickets to people who walk outside. You have to actually get a permission slip to go outside or risk the fine. I saw this one video where a woman started confronting police and coughing on them. It shouldn't get to be like that!
Posted on: 2020/3/18 19:04
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I tell people on my side of the political spectrum to back off on the conspiracy stuff and look at the fact in reality (SARS epidemic), science fiction, and 'disease war games' by the CDC, China is often 'the source' of a flu like outbreak: Terrible pollution coupled with the fact the Chinese smoke like fiends (increases chances for respiratory infections) Unsanitary conditions, people often living with their livestock in the same building 'Wet Markets' with wild animals sold I am getting worried the economic fallout is going to be worse than Covid itself. My wife's employer (fashion) is in a crisis right now. Their customers are invoking Force Majeur clauses in their contracts to cancel orders, delay orders, and re-schedule payments. There is $millions in inventory on ships, waiting to dock, that now has nowhere to go. Even if it did have someplace to go, there is not enough staff as the ports are basically shutdown to unload it. Meanwhile factories have to be paid, banks have insured those payments with irrevocable letters of credit, and the shipping companies have to keep paying their crews and fuel bills. Basically it's a collapse of capital flows similar to what happened during the beginning of the Great Depressions. Side note: Is Newport Mall completely closed? I got a pair of glasses I need to pick up at Lenscrafters.
Posted on: 2020/3/18 18:42
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JC shopping times for frail, people with special needs, seniors, and pregnant women https://jcnj.org//UserFiles/Servers/Se ... ermarketShoppingTimes.jpg City of Jersey City @JerseyCity twitter Please share this list of parking spaces from available Jersey City Public Schools that can be used by the public during this health-related school closure. https://twitter.com/JerseyCity/status/1240029147969224704/photo/1
Posted on: 2020/3/18 15:03
Edited by neverleft on 2020/3/18 15:23:32
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You can expect schools not to reopen for the rest of the year. Bank on it. I hope I'm wrong, but I've heard from multiple people in the know.
Posted on: 2020/3/17 1:49
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That can't be right, according to my insane sister with a DVM and PhD, Covid is a Russian bioweapon with HIV DNA and they're releasing it sequentially in world cities to keep the hysteria going. No end to crazy shit going around the net.
Posted on: 2020/3/17 1:34
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3/16/2020 7:20 pm robo call. JC public schools will be closed now for two weeks hopefully reopening on March 30th.
Posted on: 2020/3/16 23:21
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I went to the dentist this morning and I was the last patient the dentist saw. He got the email from the city and he is concerned about patients who have emergencies.
Posted on: 2020/3/16 23:10
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Interesting thanks. Too bad the world couldn't sue China for SARS and COVID-19 damages. .
Posted on: 2020/3/16 22:57
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Posted on: 2020/3/16 21:56
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Steven Fulop@StevenFulop (3/16/2020 twitter) 1/2 We?ve tried to be proactive w/thoughtful policy guidelines for #JerseyCity . This AM we?ll be reaching out to all of the local grocery stores (3 registers or more) + we?re going to be setting aside hours for elderly residents, ppl w/disabilities, pregnant residents 2/2.. so that only these residents will be in the stores from 9-11am starting tomorrow. The stores have been receptive as this needs to be an effort where we all work together. These are the most vulnerable residents + crowded supermarkets are a challenge for these residents
Posted on: 2020/3/16 21:08
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Home away from home
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Governor Phil Murphy@GovMurphy (twitter) To slow the spread of #COVID19, I'm ordering: ?Closure of ALL pre-K, K-12 schools, higher ed insts. beginning 3/18 ?Closure of ALL casinos, racetracks, theaters, gyms ?Closure of ALL non-essential retail, recreational, & entertainment bizs after 8pm ?Banning gatherings of 50+
Posted on: 2020/3/16 16:49
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Re: Coronavirus is now in Hudson County
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nj com 3/16/2020 ?In an unprecedented move, all movie theaters, gyms and casinos in New Jersey, New York and Connecticut will be ordered closed at 8 p.m. Monday, March 16, and will remain closed until further notice to protect against the coronavirus pandemic, the states? governors announced. Restaurants and bars will no longer be allowed to accept dine-in customers after 8 p.m., but will still be permitted to offer takeout and delivery. The establishments will be provided a waiver for carry-out alcohol, officials said. The governors are also banning all public gatherings of 50 people or more in all three states. And Gov. Phil Murphy said New Jersey is ?strongly discouraging? residents from making ?non-essential? travel between 8 p.m. and 5 a.m. for the foreseeable future. Murphy New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, and Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont made the announcement just after 10 a.m. during a joint conference call.
Posted on: 2020/3/16 16:12
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Re: Coronavirus is now in Hudson County
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Dental and physical therapy are not "non urgent" medical facilities. If you don't keep up on your physical therapy modalities for brain injuries, for instance, your mobility can be impacted forever. And dental care? What about emergencies?
I'm glad we're taking precautions, but there must be some consideration here for chronic and serious medical issues. There should also be a consistent message and implementation county wide, not town by town.
Posted on: 2020/3/16 13:49
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www.jcnj.org/coronavirus (Updated 3/16/2020) Yesterday evening we had our 4th positive case and we recognize where this can trend if we don?t get ahead of it. We were the first in the country (last week) to implement any restrictions on any sort of establishments in the city, and being that social distancing is the best solution, we will be expanding our limitations to different establishments. This morning we are taking the steps via executive order to expand our restrictions that were implemented last week. Effective noon today the following establishments will be closed: - Bars and nightclubs that do not serve food - Movie theaters, performance centers - Gyms; fitness centers; barber shops; day care centers; nail salons; and non-urgent medical offices including, dental offices, physical therapy clinics, chiropractor offices, and all state licensed cosmetology establishments. The following restrictions will also apply: All restaurants are prohibited from providing dine-in services, but will be allowed to have take-out, delivery, and drive-through services. These restrictions do not apply to: - grocery stores, cafeterias within nursing homes or similar facilities. Mayor's Daily Updates: Beginning March 16th, we will do a daily update for residents in Jersey City via Facebook Live on the Jersey City Facebook Page. We will do this at 2 p.m. every day for the next week. This seems like the best way for us to keep residents directly totally informed. If you have ?specific questions you want us to answer, please email fulops@jcnj.org. We will aggregate the most frequently asked questions, and do our best to answer them.
Posted on: 2020/3/16 12:25
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3/15/2020 4:14 pm robo call about JC Public Schools free breakfast and lunch program meal pickup https://www.jcboe.org/apps/news/article/1185690
Posted on: 2020/3/15 21:11
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