TheBigGuy wrote:
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JCMan8 wrote:
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stillinjc wrote:
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Monroe wrote:
Latest Quinnipiac poll has Trump leading crooked Hillary in PA, Florida, and tied in Ohio.

Old Ruthie seems to have lost it, hasn't she? Is there a way to remove a SC justice who's clearly addled?

She did lose it. Said something about emigrating to New Zealand if Donald wins. I guess Canada is too cold for her. I won't miss her.

Funny that these liberals who always threaten to move inevitably choose very white countries.

You never see them threaten to move to Mexico, anywhere in South America or Africa or Asia or the Middle East. Curious case.

Couldn't move to France like the old days ... to much anti-Semitism in Europe!

JCMan8 wrote:
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stillinjc wrote:
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Monroe wrote:
Latest Quinnipiac poll has Trump leading crooked Hillary in PA, Florida, and tied in Ohio.

Old Ruthie seems to have lost it, hasn't she? Is there a way to remove a SC justice who's clearly addled?

She did lose it. Said something about emigrating to New Zealand if Donald wins. I guess Canada is too cold for her. I won't miss her.

Funny that these liberals who always threaten to move inevitably choose very white countries.

You never see them threaten to move to Mexico, anywhere in South America or Africa or Asia or the Middle East. Curious case.

stillinjc wrote:
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Monroe wrote:
Latest Quinnipiac poll has Trump leading crooked Hillary in PA, Florida, and tied in Ohio.

Old Ruthie seems to have lost it, hasn't she? Is there a way to remove a SC justice who's clearly addled?

She did lose it. Said something about emigrating to New Zealand if Donald wins. I guess Canada is too cold for her. I won't miss her.

Monroe wrote:
Latest Quinnipiac poll has Trump leading crooked Hillary in PA, Florida, and tied in Ohio.

Old Ruthie seems to have lost it, hasn't she? Is there a way to remove a SC justice who's clearly addled?

Monroe wrote:
Latest Quinnipiac poll has Trump leading crooked Hillary in PA, Florida, and tied in Ohio.

Old Ruthie seems to have lost it, hasn't she? Is there a way to remove a SC justice who's clearly addled?

Atsushi wrote:
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SOS wrote:
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Atsushi wrote:
Bernie Sanders endorses Hilary Clinton:

http://www.vox.com/2016/7/12/12160214 ... hillary-clinton-statement

Meanwhile Anxiety Replaces Excitement Over Upcoming GOP Convention:

http://www.redstate.com/sweetie15/201 ... -upcoming-gop-convention/

GOP looks like a winning party!
(Go to hell, GOP!)

Let's not celebrate yet. Trump has a 1 in 5 chance as of today and lots can happen between now and November.

That's true. Unthinkable has happened this year. But I'm reasonably confident that people whose opinions I respect, are indeed confident.

SOS wrote:
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stillinjc wrote:
Btw, Ruth Bader Ginsburg needs to STFU. She is unfit for SCOTUS. I don't see how she can continue serving.

The majority of Americans feel that Trump should STFU.

There?s a good reason the Code of Conduct for United States Judges flatly states that a ?judge should not .?.?. publicly endorse or oppose a candidate for public office.? Politicization, real or perceived, undermines public faith in the impartiality of the courts.

Monroe wrote:
Weeks ago, Bernie said Hillary was unfit to become POTUS. Now, he endorses!

stillinjc wrote:
Btw, Ruth Bader Ginsburg needs to STFU. She is unfit for SCOTUS. I don't see how she can continue serving.

WhoElseCouldIBe wrote:
Like I already said, 538 has Trump with a 1 in 4 chance of winning.

If this doesn't worry you, you have your head in the sand.

stillinjc wrote:
Btw, Ruth Bader Ginsburg needs to STFU. She is unfit for SCOTUS. I don't see how she can continue serving.

For once, a respite from my strongly held opinions on Trump. Let me just break down for you what I see happening and ask someone to make the contrary case.

Right now, Clinton is ahead of Trump by 4.3% in the polling averages. She has led Trump in all but eight of the last seventy polls. Of those eight, four were Rasmussen polls and Rasmussen continues to be about the worst pollster in the United States, as it has been since 2012.

Trump has good news today from Quinnipiac, which has him competitive with Clinton in Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania. But competitive is not winning. At the same time, there are more Republican states competitive for Clinton than there are Democrat states competitive for Trump.

On top of that, Clinton has an overwhelming fundraising advantage. Republican donors have decided to sit on the sidelines and are neither funding Trump nor the RNC. Because of Trump, corporate sponsors have pulled out of the convention, so the RNC is going to have to cover those costs. Because of limited funds, neither the Trump nor the RNC can hire ground games in swing states.

In fact, the Trump campaign lacks a significant ground game in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, New Hampshire, and Nevada. The Trump campaign has likewise eschewed big data operations to identify persuadable voters. On top of that, the Trump campaign and RNC are probably going to have to spend resources in Arizona and Missouri, two states they should not have to worry about, and might have to spend resources in Georgia. On top of that, North Carolina looks less and less winnable for Trump in terms of ground operations and polling. The GOP will probably even lose the North Carolina Senate seat.

The Trump response has been that by force of personality and hatred of Hillary Clinton, he is going to move voters to his camp.

But most of Clinton?s negatives are fully baked in. Benghazi has been known for a long time. All the Clinton scandals are known. The email situation is most likely to hurt her, but Democrats will stick with her and there are more of those than there are Republicans. Her negatives remain lower than Trump?s even after the email scandal and even if Trump and the RNC wanted to make it an issue, they don?t have a ton of resources.

On the issue of Trump?s force of personality, I am at a loss to think who now will convert to Trump that has not already converted to Trump. If the same shtick did not work before now, how now will it work? On top of that, the Trump shtick was able to work because the media ran his speeches uncritically and wall to wall in a primary season where he battled 17 candidates, none of whom could compete against the wall to wall free, mostly uncritical media Trump received. Since he became the presumptive nominee almost all of the media has taken a negative and highly critical turn against Trump.

Add into this that most of the negatives about Clinton are already known and most of the negatives about Trump are not as widely known. There is a lot more ground to explore with Trump and the Clinton operation and Democrats combined have several hundred more million dollars to use to explore that ground with the American people. For a reference point, Trump?s Republican opponents and anti-Trump outside groups spent $42.7 million against Trump in the primaries total. That will amount to one month of negative ads against him by the Democrats in the thirty days after his nomination is secured. For even more reference, that $42.7 million is for the total campaign primary season where in 2012 Mitt Romney spent $15 million for just Florida. In other words, compared to prior years, the GOP really did not spend a great deal of money on Trump and even then did so well after the momentum was fully in his direction. Democrats are not going to make that same mistake.

Lastly, a chunk of evangelical, conservative, and even moderate Republicans will not vote for Trump. The Democrats are the larger of the two parties and more Democrats are backing Clinton than there are Republicans backing Trump. Right now, Clinton has over 90% Democrat loyalty and Trump only has around 70% loyalty within the GOP. But even if he had 100% loyalty in the GOP that number would still be smaller than the 90% loyalty from Democrats. Trump has to persuade moderate and independent voters, but is losing every demographic except non-college educated white voters to Clinton. In fact, for the first time since 1952 the Democrats are winning white college educated voters.

So I?m honestly curious to know what Trump Republicans see as his path to victory. All I hear is ?he is not Hillary.? And they are right. He has higher negatives, worse polling, less party loyalty, less money, and more states on defense. To win he must hold all of Romney?s states with 206 electoral college votes and find 64 more electoral college votes. Even if Trump wins all of Romney?s states and wins Pennsylvania and Florida, he would still lose to Clinton and on top of that he is more likely than not going to lose North Carolina while having to spend resources just to play defense in Arizona and Missouri.

So strategically, how does Trump win?

The best I get from Trump partisans is that the polling is wrong. But it has been pretty accurate so far except Rasmussen. And I get that he is a new style of candidate, but what worked in a field of 17 Republicans in a primary does not seem like it will work in a general.

So what does he do? I am genuinely curious and made more curious by the reality that if you swapped Trump with just about any one of the other seventeen Republicans next week, they would start the general election with more willing donors, better favorability, better odds in Romney won states, and a more enthusiastic party operation.

WhoElseCouldIBe wrote:
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Atsushi wrote:
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WhoElseCouldIBe wrote:
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Atsushi wrote:
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SOS wrote:
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Atsushi wrote:
Bernie Sanders endorses Hilary Clinton:

http://www.vox.com/2016/7/12/12160214 ... hillary-clinton-statement

Meanwhile Anxiety Replaces Excitement Over Upcoming GOP Convention:

http://www.redstate.com/sweetie15/201 ... -upcoming-gop-convention/

GOP looks like a winning party!
(Go to hell, GOP!)

Let's not celebrate yet. Trump has a 1 in 5 chance as of today and lots can happen between now and November.

That's true. Unthinkable has happened this year. But I'm reasonably confident that people whose opinions I respect, are indeed confident.

Opinions are irrelevant. The election is months away, so it's too soon to feel confident.

Btw, 538 has a 1 in 4 chance of a Trump victory.

If you read broadly, then you begin to recognize who are top tier analysts and political scientists who back their arguments with data. Their analysis has values. But someone's opinions may not. If you know any top tier analysts or strategists from both sides that Trump has a higher chance of winning, I would like to know. There is no one (at least, I haven't been able to find one). Sure, there are plenty of people argue Trump's vicotry, including self-claimed experts on this forum, but like you say, their opinions are indeed irrelevant.

Like I already said, 538 has Trump with a 1 in 4 chance of winning.

If this doesn't worry you, you have your head in the sand.

WhoElseCouldIBe wrote:
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Atsushi wrote:
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WhoElseCouldIBe wrote:
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Atsushi wrote:
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SOS wrote:
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Atsushi wrote:
Bernie Sanders endorses Hilary Clinton:

http://www.vox.com/2016/7/12/12160214 ... hillary-clinton-statement

Meanwhile Anxiety Replaces Excitement Over Upcoming GOP Convention:

http://www.redstate.com/sweetie15/201 ... -upcoming-gop-convention/

GOP looks like a winning party!
(Go to hell, GOP!)

Let's not celebrate yet. Trump has a 1 in 5 chance as of today and lots can happen between now and November.

That's true. Unthinkable has happened this year. But I'm reasonably confident that people whose opinions I respect, are indeed confident.

Opinions are irrelevant. The election is months away, so it's too soon to feel confident.

Btw, 538 has a 1 in 4 chance of a Trump victory.

If you read broadly, then you begin to recognize who are top tier analysts and political scientists who back their arguments with data. Their analysis has values. But someone's opinions may not. If you know any top tier analysts or strategists from both sides that Trump has a higher chance of winning, I would like to know. There is no one (at least, I haven't been able to find one). Sure, there are plenty of people argue Trump's vicotry, including self-claimed experts on this forum, but like you say, their opinions are indeed irrelevant.

Like I already said, 538 has Trump with a 1 in 4 chance of winning.

If this doesn't worry you, you have your head in the sand.

Atsushi wrote:
Quote:

WhoElseCouldIBe wrote:
Quote:

Atsushi wrote:
Quote:

SOS wrote:
Quote:

Atsushi wrote:
Bernie Sanders endorses Hilary Clinton:

http://www.vox.com/2016/7/12/12160214 ... hillary-clinton-statement

Meanwhile Anxiety Replaces Excitement Over Upcoming GOP Convention:

http://www.redstate.com/sweetie15/201 ... -upcoming-gop-convention/

GOP looks like a winning party!
(Go to hell, GOP!)

Let's not celebrate yet. Trump has a 1 in 5 chance as of today and lots can happen between now and November.

That's true. Unthinkable has happened this year. But I'm reasonably confident that people whose opinions I respect, are indeed confident.

Opinions are irrelevant. The election is months away, so it's too soon to feel confident.

Btw, 538 has a 1 in 4 chance of a Trump victory.

If you read broadly, then you begin to recognize who are top tier analysts and political scientists who back their arguments with data. Their analysis has values. But someone's opinions may not. If you know any top tier analysts or strategists from both sides that Trump has a higher chance of winning, I would like to know. There is no one (at least, I haven't been able to find one). Sure, there are plenty of people argue Trump's vicotry, including self-claimed experts on this forum, but like you say, their opinions are indeed irrelevant.

Monroe wrote:
Weeks ago, Bernie said Hillary was unfit to become POTUS. Now, he endorses!

neverleft wrote:
Quote:

Monroe wrote:
Weeks ago, Bernie said Hillary was unfit to become POTUS. Now, he endorses!

Trump is already having a field day with that endorsement. The ads with Bernie ripping into Hillary are brutal.

PS - the email scandal DID hurt her....

July 13, 2016 - Clinton Losing On Honesty In Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds

FLORIDA: Trump 42 - Clinton 39
OHIO: Clinton 41 - Trump 41
PENNSYLVANIA: Trump 43 - Clinton 41

With a drop in grades on honesty and moral standards, Democrat Hillary Clinton loses an 8-point lead over Republican Donald Trump in Florida, and finds herself in too-close-to-call races in the three critical swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today.

Clinton loses ground on almost every measure from a June 21 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. The Swing State Poll focuses on Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania because since 1960 no candidate has won the presidential race without taking at least two of these three states.

The presidential matchups show:

Florida - Trump at 42 percent to Clinton's 39, compared to a 47 - 39 percent Clinton lead June 21;

Ohio - Clinton and Trump tied 41 - 41 percent, compared to a 40 - 40 percent tie June 21;

Pennsylvania - Trump at 43 percent to Clinton's 41 percent, compared to June 21, when Clinton had 42 percent to Trump's 41 percent.

With third party candidates in the race, results are:

Florida - Trump leads Clinton 41 - 36 percent, with 7 percent for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 4 percent for Green Party candidate Jill Stein;

Ohio - Trump at 37 percent to Clinton's 36 percent, with Johnson at 7 percent and Stein at 6 percent;

Pennsylvania - Trump over Clinton 40 - 34 percent with 9 percent for Johnson and 3 percent for Stein.

Monroe wrote:
Weeks ago, Bernie said Hillary was unfit to become POTUS. Now, he endorses!

WhoElseCouldIBe wrote:
Quote:

Atsushi wrote:
Quote:

SOS wrote:
Quote:

Atsushi wrote:
Bernie Sanders endorses Hilary Clinton:

http://www.vox.com/2016/7/12/12160214 ... hillary-clinton-statement

Meanwhile Anxiety Replaces Excitement Over Upcoming GOP Convention:

http://www.redstate.com/sweetie15/201 ... -upcoming-gop-convention/

GOP looks like a winning party!
(Go to hell, GOP!)

Let's not celebrate yet. Trump has a 1 in 5 chance as of today and lots can happen between now and November.

That's true. Unthinkable has happened this year. But I'm reasonably confident that people whose opinions I respect, are indeed confident.

Opinions are irrelevant. The election is months away, so it's too soon to feel confident.

Btw, 538 has a 1 in 4 chance of a Trump victory.

Atsushi wrote:
Quote:

SOS wrote:
Quote:

Atsushi wrote:
Bernie Sanders endorses Hilary Clinton:

http://www.vox.com/2016/7/12/12160214 ... hillary-clinton-statement

Meanwhile Anxiety Replaces Excitement Over Upcoming GOP Convention:

http://www.redstate.com/sweetie15/201 ... -upcoming-gop-convention/

GOP looks like a winning party!
(Go to hell, GOP!)

Let's not celebrate yet. Trump has a 1 in 5 chance as of today and lots can happen between now and November.

That's true. Unthinkable has happened this year. But I'm reasonably confident that people whose opinions I respect, are indeed confident.

Atsushi wrote:
http://www.politico.com/magazine/stor ... est-accomplishment-213157

What Is Hillary?s Greatest Accomplishment?

Quote:

?If you want to stump a Democrat, ask them to name an accomplishment of Hillary Clinton,? Carly Fiorina quipped at Wednesday?s Republican debate. The line got hearty applause?but it also cut to the core of one of the defining lines of attacks against the former first lady and Democratic presidential frontrunner. After nearly forty years in public life, what exactly has she accomplished?

It?s a question that even, at times, has tripped up Clinton herself: During her 2014 book tour, when ABC?s Diane Sawyer asked her about her ?marquee achievement,? Clinton changed the subject and she fumbled over a similar question during a women?s forum in Manhattan last year. ?I see my role as secretary?in fact leadership in general in a democracy?as a relay race. You run the best race you can run, you hand off the baton. Some of what hasn?t been finished may go on to be finished,? she told Thomas Friedman. ?I?m very proud of the [economic] stabilization and the really solid leadership that the administration provided that I think now leads us to be able to deal with problems like Ukraine because we?re not so worried about a massive collapse in Europe.?

The question Fiorina posed has also tripped up members of the Obama administration. When State Department spokesperson Jen Psaki was asked last year to ?identify one tangible achievement? accomplished through one of Hillary Clinton?s key projects as Secretary of State?the first-ever audit of the department?Psaki punted, ?I am certain that those who were here at the time, who worked hard on that effort, could point out one.?

Hillary?s supporters have been stumped too. When Bloomberg Politics? Mark Halperin asked a focus group of Iowans this summer about Hillary Clinton?s accomplishments, one Democratic supporter said, ?I honestly can?t say I followed along [with] everything that was going on.?

So is Fiorina right? Are Democrats really unable to defend Clinton?s record on the merits? To find out, Politico Magazine on Thursday asked the nation?s top Democratic leaders and thinkers to name Hillary Clinton?s biggest accomplishment.

What is the most impressive item on Clinton?s record? Which legislative or policy triumph from her many years in office will be most important on the campaign trail? Not surprisingly, those surveyed all came up with an answer to defend their party?s likely presidential nominee. Whether these count as ?marquee,? ?significant,? or ?tangible?? You be the judge.

***

?It?s kind of hard to pick one accomplishment?

By Bill Burton, former senior strategist for Priorities USA Action, a super PAC in support of President Barack Obama.

It?s kind of hard to pick one accomplishment for Hillary Clinton. Personally, I?m sure she?d say her daughter and grandchild are her greatest accomplishments. Professionally, how about these three?

1. Her China speech on women.
2. Her role in killing Osama bin Laden.
3. Management of the State Department during which time we saw a 50 percent increase in exports to China, aggressive work on climate (particularly at Copenhagen), and the effort to create and implement the toughest sanctions ever on Iran?helping to lead us to the agreement currently on the table.

***

?The sanction on Iran that brought them to the table?

Howard Dean is the former governor of Vermont and the former chair of the Democratic National Committee.

Hillary Clinton was the principal author of the sanction on Iran that brought them to the table. We cannot afford any Know Nothings like Carly in the White House.

***

?Nearly every foreign policy victory of President Obama?s second term has Secretary Clinton?s fingerprints on it?

By Harry Reid, Senate Democratic leader.

American foreign policy was stronger when Hillary Clinton left the State Department than when she arrived. She took the reins from a Bush administration that had left America?s reputation deeply damaged and planted the seeds for the foreign policy successes we see today. From the agreement to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, to the landmark normalization of relations with Cuba, nearly every foreign policy victory of President Obama?s second term has Secretary Clinton?s fingerprints on it.

Her accomplishments extend to health care, as well. As First Lady, she helped create and guide through Congress Children?s Health Insurance Program, a key program that brought health care coverage to millions of children. As a Senator, she worked across the aisle to provide full military health benefits to reservists and National Guard members.

Secretary Clinton was also an outspoken champion for women around the world. She set records for travel while leading the State Department and used every trip to empower the women of the 112 countries she visited. She made gender equality a priority of U.S. foreign policy. And she created the ambassador at large for global women?s issues, a post charged with integrating gender throughout the State Department.

***

?The SCHIP program ? which expanded health coverage to millions of lower-income children?

By Anita Dunn, Democratic political strategist.

After universal health care failed in 1994, the Clinton Administration was reluctant to go anywhere near healthcare again?Democrats lost the Senate and the House in 1994, and losing the house was for the first time in 40 years. Then-First Lady Hilary Clinton ended up being the White House ally and inside player who worked with Ted Kennedy and Orrin Hatch to create the SCHIP program in Clinton's second term, which expanded health coverage to millions of lower-income children. She has other accomplishments but this one made a huge difference, and came at a time when politically the Administration was cutting deals with Newt Gingrich on the budget and not necessarily all that enthusiastic about revisiting health care.

This obviously isn't her only accomplishment but it is meaningful because she took a political battering after the failure in 1994 but came back to fight again, and was able to work on a bipartisan basis during a very polarized time to get this done. Seems relevant!

***

?Clinton is one of the most accomplished people ever to run?

By Chuck Schumer, U.S. Senator for New York, Democratic party.

Hillary Clinton is one of the most accomplished people ever to run for the Presidency. I?m lucky enough to have seen those accomplishments up close from her time as Senator from New York and as Secretary of State. Hillary Clinton was instrumental in helping secure $21 billion in federal aid to help New York rebuild after 9/11. She fought tooth and nail to protect the first responders who rushed into danger when the towers collapsed and was pivotal in the passage of legislation that helped those first responders who got sick get the care and treatment they deserved. She worked night and day to protect and create jobs in New York, whether that was at the Niagara Falls Air Force base or the Center for Bioinformatics at the University of Buffalo. She also led the charge on the Lilly Ledbetter Pay Equity Act, which is now the law of the land.

As Secretary of State, Secretary Clinton was not only inspirational figure for billions of women around the globe, she also did much to restore the shattered credibility of the United States, which had lost so much influence following the failed foreign policies of the previous administration. She negotiated the cease-fire in Gaza that stopped the Hamas from firing rocket after rocket into Israel. She helped secure the START treaty?s ratification, and has advanced women?s rights in countries around the globe. That?s just a snapshot of what Hillary Clinton has accomplished over a lifetime of public service to New York and the country. If you really want to stump a Democrat, you should ask them which of Hillary?s accomplishments is your favorite?there are too many to choose from

***

?Rebuilding America?s leadership and prestige overseas after the Bush years?

Bill Richardson is a former secretary of energy and governor of New Mexico.

As Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton was key in rebuilding America?s leadership and prestige overseas after the Bush years. She restored our alliances with the EU and key Asian allies as well as key relationships in Africa and Latin America.

***

?The Pediatric Research Equity Act?

By Chris Dodd, former U.S. Senator for Connecticut, Democratic party.

Having worked with her in the Senate and on the HELP Committee, the first thing that came to mind was her authorship of the Pediatric Research Equity Act. This law requires drug companies to study their products in children. The Act is responsible for changing the drug labeling of hundreds of drugs with important information about safety and dosing of drugs for children. It has improved the health of millions of children who take medications to treat diseases ranging from HIV to epilepsy to asthma. Millions of kids are in better shape and alive because of the law Senator Clinton authored.

***

?Crippling sanctions against Iran?

By Paul Begala, political analyst for CNN and counselor to President Bill Clinton.

Easy: Iran sanctions. Sec. Clinton accomplished the nearly impossible mission of getting China, Russia, the European Union and the civilized world on board with crippling sanctions against Iran. This is what brought Iran to the negotiating table.

Ms. Fiorina may not see that as an accomplishment, since while she was CEO of Hewlett-Packard the firm sold hundreds of millions of dollars of computer products the the terrorist regime in Tehran, evading US sanctions.

Sounds like people have plenty of positive things to say about Hilary Clinton's accomplishments as Secretary of States.

SOS wrote:
Quote:

Atsushi wrote:
Bernie Sanders endorses Hilary Clinton:

http://www.vox.com/2016/7/12/12160214 ... hillary-clinton-statement

Meanwhile Anxiety Replaces Excitement Over Upcoming GOP Convention:

http://www.redstate.com/sweetie15/201 ... -upcoming-gop-convention/

GOP looks like a winning party!
(Go to hell, GOP!)

Let's not celebrate yet. Trump has a 1 in 5 chance as of today and lots can happen between now and November.

Atsushi wrote:
Bernie Sanders endorses Hilary Clinton:

http://www.vox.com/2016/7/12/12160214 ... hillary-clinton-statement

Meanwhile Anxiety Replaces Excitement Over Upcoming GOP Convention:

http://www.redstate.com/sweetie15/201 ... -upcoming-gop-convention/

GOP looks like a winning party!
(Go to hell, GOP!)