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I think there's a lot of truth to that, particularly since it all gets phased in over a multi-year period. The bigger issue, in my opinion, is going to be the opening of the Freedom Tower.

There is no doubt that PATH crowding will be an issue, but just like the Pulaski closing didn't turn out to be a disaster increased commuters to NYC will not be the disaster people expect. It turns out demand is a lot more elastic than most people think. More people can work from home, adjust their hours, take the bus etc.

Plus, at some point, the PATH is supposed to increase the capacity. Theoretically they say 20% in 2015, but lets give them 10% and put it in 2017 or 2018. 10% is an extra 12,000 one way trips.

Maybe the percentage of NYC commuters is too high, but 250 new residents in a tower is waaaaaaayyyy too low (the first of the three towers at Journal Squared is 540 units. And that's the smallest of the three...) There are a bunch of buildings with 400 to 750 units mentioned in the article.

Also - off the top of my head, there are projects missing:

Fisher is going to build two 40-story residential towers surrounding the Marriott hotel that will be built alongside - breaking ground likely this year - in Liberty Harbor just south of 18 Park

There are two other buildings that will get built alongside 235 Grand - not as big, but still substantial.

LeFrak has a building at 10th and Coles that could/should start in the very near term.

And there are a dozen developers poised to build in the area above 14th street - only Cast Iron Lofts 2 is mentioned in the Curbed article.

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Ack 1,875 more an hour? Let's see divide by the 40 trains per hour that leave and you wind up with 47 people. Divide by the 8 cars and you wind up with 6 people per car. That's a lot for a crowded system, but I think your numbers are actually aggressive at 75% of the people working in NYC and commuting every day on the PATH at rush hour. I'd say maybe 50% of my friends in JC commute to NYC via the PATH.

No doubt it will be an issue, but the system carried 241,725 a day during commuting times (let's say 120k each way). An extra few thousand a day is actually a pretty small percentage increase.

i counted the number of units listed as related to those only living around the DTJC area (i.e., Grove St): 7,610 in total not including 110/111 First street (not mentioned in curbed) which is supposed to have about 450 units each. That will be a lot of bodies at the Grove St PATH station

20 buildings over the next five years. If we assume 250 new residents per building (probably higher, but let's keep it conservative for this exercise) and we assume that three quarters (75%) of those new residents are commuting to NYC, we are talking about 3750 more people riding the PATH, most of them during rush commuting hours. If you figure that number is spread out over two hours, that's 1875 more people riding PATH per rush hour. That's a whole lot of people to absorb. The PATH commute is about to get a lot worse over the next five years. Even if you assume 18 trains per hour (I think that number is about right when counting WTC and 33rd) you are looking at over 100 more people per train, or almost 15 more per car. Sometimes, the cars at Grove are already filled up and people need to wait for the next train. Most of these buildings will likely house 300 or more people. The numbers are just not sustainable with the current infrastructure.

When we moved to JC in the mid '90s, we were told Lefrak had planning permission(?) for Newport (the Pavonia bit is now silent) which involved 11 towers on it from the PATH down to the Hoboken border...

Dunno how far they have got, but if they have less than 11... we'll see more as they believe the market can support it

Mapping Jersey City's Tower-Tastic Residential Building Boom

Wednesday, April 30, 2014, by Curbed Staff

In five years, the Jersey City skyline will look very different than it does today. More than 20 residential buildings are currently under construction in the 15-square mile city, and most of them are not on the waterfront like they have been in the past, thanks to new tax abatement rules to spur greater investment farther inland. Major real estate developers that traditionally focused on Manhattan and Brooklyn have set their sights on the other side of the Holland Tunnel; everyone from Toll Brothers to the Kushners (the architect and the developer) are eager to break ground in JC and take advantage of the strong rental market while stratospheric rates continue to push Manhattanites out of the city.

Following the leads of neighboring Hoboken and the old, artist-filled Brooklyn it calls its muse, still-rugged Jersey City is undergoing a swift transformation that is both market-driven and politically motivated. Brownstones are being restored, new restaurants and caf?s are popping up throughout town, and MANA Contemporary is actively luring priced-out painters, photographers and other "makers" to its massive and growing compound that offers the holy grail of cheap rents and huge space. To track the building boom, we mapped 19 new residential developments. Most are in the planning stages or under construction, but a few have recently opened. If you see one we missed, please let us know in the comments section or on the tipline.
? M. Lorenzo

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