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Re: Property values in the Heights (post Sandy)
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Home away from home
 
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There is nothing special about artists that revitalize an area. I am aware of the "research" that shows artists once inhabited areas that were undesirable that are now desirable. My argument is that just because artists were there before, it's not a cause and effect relationship. Why not contribute the revitalization to the drop of crime in that area or the exodus of homeless people out of the area? Even if it was due to the artists, what research shows that doctors or money managers, when given economic incentives, don't also bring about the same revitalization? One could argue they have more money to eat out and contribute to the local economy right? It's a principle of fairness. Artists don't deserve special treatment. I rather have a doctor in my neighborhood than an artist any day of the week and twice on sundays.
Posted on: 2012/12/3 21:07
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Re: Property values in the Heights (post Sandy)
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Yes, but there is NYC personal income tax to add to the mix. If your married joint income is $90k it's $3,071. doesn't eliminate the RE tax difference, but helps towards leveling it. http://www.tax.ny.gov/pdf/current_for ... nyc_tax_rate_schedule.pdf As for "value", one needs to define the term. Obviously it's easy to chart the relative values in a neighborhood in absolute $/sf. But as a homeowner or investor, the real value is what you get for your money. For a homeowner, that can be a little mushy, "do you like being near the theater more than having a garden?". But for an investor, there's 2 clear metrics. The price/earnings, and the growth potential. The PE of the Heights is generally far lower than Downtown, you have a much harder time Downtown finding a rental property that would pay all it's expenses, or allow you to live in a multifamily and get much of the expenses paid by tenants. Anyone trying to rent out a downtown condo they bought in the boom knows this. Then there's what's a realistic growth expectation. What made the bubble so obvious was that you had solid suburban communities that were skyrocketing in value, but the same people were buying there with the same incomes. There was no demographic change. The same could not be said of JC, where there were tremendous demographic changes Downtown, and to a lesser extent in the other areas. It creates a real reason for prices to go up and stay up when a neighborhood changes it's income pattern. So the question for buyers is do you want to be a gentrifyer trying to get more for your money, an investor who's trying to guess what will happen and get a bargain, or do you want to follow, and pay much more for a sure thing? None are wrong, it's just personal choices involving value and risk. Thor: V15 doesn't deal with facts & numbers, he just "knows" things.
Posted on: 2012/12/1 17:16
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Re: Property values in the Heights (post Sandy)
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V15 - you disagree that artists revitalize blighted areas ?
Do you have any research to back that up ? My point was that lawyers and doctors don't move into shitty areas and clean them up; thus resulting in real estate value increases. Young professionals the same. They are a lagging indicator. http://realestate.msn.com/slideshow.aspx?cp-documentid=27746032#1
Posted on: 2012/12/1 16:13
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Re: Property values in the Heights (post Sandy)
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Keep in mind that taxes in NYC are a lot lower than surrounding areas which may account for part of the reason why Brooklyn is so much more expensive than Hudson County. I think even the Bronx is more expensive than JC
Posted on: 2012/12/1 2:56
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Re: Property values in the Heights (post Sandy)
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Home away from home
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Bubble, no bubble, its all sort of immaterial. Its not like there was a localized bubble in the Heights or downtown or the tristate area. It was a national trend, and one that is in the process of normalizing anyway.
The real question should be is the relative value of Heights growing as a percentage of the price per square foot to surrounding communities. Its probably making marginal gains, but not faster than the downtown. The top price per square foot is still Manhattan. Lets call Manhattan south of 110th Street 100X, with some neighborhoods costing more than that and others costing less. Downtown Jersey City is probably in the neighborhood of 50X or 60X when it comes to price per square foot. That's a gain from a decade ago, where downtown Jersey City was in the arena of 30X to 40X, but not the same kind of value of places like downtown Brooklyn which was about 90X to 95X. The Heights is nowhere near any of that in terms of value.
Posted on: 2012/12/1 0:41
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Re: Property values in the Heights (post Sandy)
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The "bubble" started in 02 huh? And YOU get to decide when a boom becomes a bubble. Look at the red line, that's the inflation adjusted price. Bottomed in 97 and climbed like a rocket. Note, it took nearly 10 years after the 87 peak to start it's rise, everybody needs to relax for the ride. Had the guys who were selling the Downtown properties I mentioned stuck it out instead of panicking, they'd have made millions.
Posted on: 2012/11/30 22:31
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Re: Property values in the Heights (post Sandy)
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The bubble is different than the bull market..... The bubble started in 02 (where home prices were rising by double digits in many markets) and ended in 06. - I did correct my earlier year - I meant to say 02. Before then, home prices were rising but not at the levels seen in 02-06. You said the housing bubble was well underway in 02 - not true. So now I have to buy multiple properties to know real estate? Can you be my agent? Where will you show me properties? In the heights? Or better yet, maybe in GV or BL? How about Camden - great potential. lol
Posted on: 2012/11/30 22:06
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Re: Property values in the Heights (post Sandy)
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You haven't a clue what you're talking about, same as the gentrification topic. Prices rose significantly starting around 99 and accelerating after the tech stock crash as people looked for better investements. The bull market in RE only lasted 2 years?!! Have you only read about this, is it "history" to you? When did you buy YOUR 1st property?
Posted on: 2012/11/30 22:02
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Re: Property values in the Heights (post Sandy)
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Absolutely correct. I saw your statement about physicians and lawyers from a study published by a think tank - Out of Your Ass Institute. They do unbiased research and publish weekly. Did you get your info from that source?
Posted on: 2012/11/30 21:34
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Re: Property values in the Heights (post Sandy)
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Nice back tracking here. The housing boom didn't start until 02 (corrected) and peaked in 06. Prices before this were depressed. It's all relative isn't it? You give me a longer than 5 yr timespan and I'll show you that Newport and Downtown are a much better return on investment than the heights. Zillow aggregates data instead of someone cherry picking data from tax records...
Posted on: 2012/11/30 21:31
Edited by vindication15 on 2012/11/30 21:50:24
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Re: Property values in the Heights (post Sandy)
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You see how that IS NOT what brewster said? Good for you that YOUR house doubled. For the average person deciding to buy in 2002, they could have made a colossal mistake buying in the heights (seeing a depreciation in 10 yrs) or they could have made almost double their return buying in downtown. Yes, brewster will be correct that prices in the heights will double and even triple. I'm sure if you bought land in 1900 in the heights, prices have quadrupled many times over. It's just that downtown was, is, and will always be a better investment in the long run. There is an hierarchy in Jersey City in home prices and it's wise to know where you are in that hierarchy if you don't want to lose money.
Posted on: 2012/11/30 21:24
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Re: Property values in the Heights (post Sandy)
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When I said "before" I mean way before 12/2002, like 1997. The boom was well underway by 02. In 97 we saw numerous brick multifamily properties Downtown for under $200. One 6 family on 8th btw Brunswick & Monmouth, already condo-ed, was for sale at $190k. The 4 unit place on the NW corner of Jersey & 6th was similarly priced.
Given these prices how could you be shocked that many properties in the Heights sold for well under $150k? Just now I picked a random street, Charles, a pretty typical Heights block, and looked at the tax records till I found one sold before 98: a 2 family, #128, sold for $135k. There's plenty more in that range if you're willing to do the legwork rather than depend on Zillow. http://tax1.co.monmouth.nj.us Just enter any address and the record will show what it's last sale price was.
Posted on: 2012/11/30 21:20
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Re: Property values in the Heights (post Sandy)
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I can afford to live in Manhattan - that doesn't mean I have to live there or am stupid because I don't. As Brewster mentioned, its a personal preference to value more space, less congestion, and the potential for future appreciation.
I just bought a condo in DTJC and am already looking in BL, Heights, Communipaw, etc and realizing what I paid could probably buy a whole 3/4 floor building. Artists revitalize areas because of their community development instincts. They aren't inspired by living in dumpy areas and want to increase the visual qualities as well as the inspiring characteristics (music, food, activities). Physicians and lawyers dont give a shit about this and wont move anywhere just because the city offers them an incentive.
Posted on: 2012/11/30 21:13
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Re: Property values in the Heights (post Sandy)
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Just can't stay away
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Prices doubled--not tripled--in the Heights during the boom, for me at least. I bought a loft for $150,000 in 2002 and sold it for $290,000 in December of 2007 (essentially 2008). I did cosmetic renovations and did the stainless steel appliances etc but still--nice rise in value. That same loft probably wouldn't sell for more than $200,000 right now--so the price is not double what is before. Prices here just like most of America are back at 2003 values. That bubble hurts but I still think someday Brewster will be correct if I hold on long enough.
Posted on: 2012/11/30 21:10
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Re: Property values in the Heights (post Sandy)
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There is no problem with the presentation of data. Look at brewsters original post:
"Prices tripled in the Heights over the course of the boom, and they're still double what they were before." There has been no tripling, not even a doubling, in the heights since the most recent boom unless brewster was talking about a boom from the 1900s.....
Posted on: 2012/11/30 20:34
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Re: Property values in the Heights (post Sandy)
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Home away from home
Joined:
2012/1/11 18:21 Last Login : 2019/12/26 15:30 From GV Bayside Park
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The problem with this chart you presented is that you left out 2005-2008 when prices were higher all over JC. For example where I live 07305 the med prices for homes in 2008 were 405k and are now 205K.
Posted on: 2012/11/30 20:27
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Re: Property values in the Heights (post Sandy)
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Easily disproven. http://www.zillow.com/local-info/NJ-J ... 73483%252C275730%26el%3D0 Median Sale Price Heights Dec 1 2002: 212K Median Sale Price Heights Sept 1 2012: 193K In a ten year period, prices have remained flat, if not depressed Compare that to downtown Median Sale Price downtown Dec 1 2002: 256K Median Sale Price downtown Sept 1 2012: 480K You can say that you live in an area that is made of Gold but people who know facts will absolutely laugh in your face.
Posted on: 2012/11/30 20:15
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Re: Property values in the Heights (post Sandy)
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Just can't stay away
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Brewster---I wish what you said about values doubling and tripling were true but not in my case and I live on a very pretty and quiet stretch of street in the Riverview Fiske area very close to the Bakery Lofts. I bought a Victorian 2-family in December of 2007 and put 20 percent down but still can't refinance due to comps. Sigh...
Posted on: 2012/11/30 17:44
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Re: Property values in the Heights (post Sandy)
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I like living in the Heights it is comfortable living. For me I do not have to commute to the city nor do I have a constant interest In doing so. If need be there is always JSQ. There are plenty of food options to my liking. Two bike shops and easy access out of the area and the city itself. It is not congested with apartments and transients, resident homeowners keep watch over their property, and more families mean a quieter and safer neighborhood.
Posted on: 2012/11/30 15:37
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Get on your bikes and ride !
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Re: Property values in the Heights (post Sandy)
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It's worth what someone will pay. Values don't depend on construction, they rise as people with more money to spend are willing to live there and they and speculators bid up the prices. Prices tripled in the Heights over the course of the boom, and they're still double what they were before. It requires no actual physical upgrade, but it does precipitate such. Before the boom,you had to be crazy to put money into renovating a habitable house that was only worth $125k and wasn't a teardown. You'd never get the money out and if it was a rental you could not get a proportional increase in rent.
Posted on: 2012/11/29 23:14
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Re: Property values in the Heights (post Sandy)
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For those of you who who believe property values will rise, how do you see this happening? The Heights, unlike downtown is pretty much built out isn't it? Will values rise as people buy houses and upgrade them? That's a pretty slow process. Condo conversion of rental buildings? What about rent control and other forms of tenant protection?Rezoning of non-residential?
Posted on: 2012/11/29 22:35
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Re: Property values in the Heights (post Sandy)
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Hoboken? You've been watching too much Jersey Shore.
Posted on: 2012/11/29 21:11
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Re: Property values in the Heights (post Sandy)
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NYC/Brooklyn is so much about branding and marketing. If all the hipsters were moving to hudson county, many wannabee hispters would be coming in droves. besides, hoboken is sort of hip in a bougeouis sense
Posted on: 2012/11/29 3:14
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Re: Property values in the Heights (post Sandy)
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I'd love to agree but I dunno. Red Hook has crappy transit and is very hot. I'll go as far as saying when you combine the great PA bus terminal access with the HBLR stop and walkable PATH from the south end, the Heights has better transit than a fair chunk of Brooklyn & Queens. Though you do get hosed with multiple fares here, you make it back with cheaper housing. I have a buddy in Astoria whose little 2 bedroom house at Astoria & 44th is worth $650k. That's about Downtown prices for a neighborhood not nearly as gentrified and as far from the train as Division & Newark to Grove St. You could buy his house in the Heights for half that at most. Even the lower NYC taxes doesn't compensate for the prices.
Posted on: 2012/11/29 2:03
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Re: Property values in the Heights (post Sandy)
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well, i'm bAAAck. well, i say be careful because sometimes that ugly little stepdaughter can steal mama's hot lover-on-the-side if mama ain't careful. Remember NYC rushed to developed MetroTech and Long Island as a cheaper alternative to Jersey City. Those office building incentives were working too bad.
Also, I say that the lack of mass transit in Hudosn county holds back the area.
Posted on: 2012/11/28 23:29
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Re: Property values in the Heights (post Sandy)
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Home away from home
Joined:
2010/7/7 17:29 Last Login : 2023/11/10 14:36 From Downtown Jersey City
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I was born in the heights. I think that the housing stock in the heights is great. If we had a smart local government (read Fulop) or private entrepeneur who would run a shuttle from the western slope and outlying blocks to the Ogden Ave elevator, the value of real estate in the heights would soar. Come on...The Beacon runs shuttles farther to Grove Street than the Heights shuttles would need to run!
Posted on: 2012/11/28 23:24
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Re: Property values in the Heights (post Sandy)
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Ian - special programs do bring about development. I am not against special programs. I am highly against special programs aimed at one group of people - its prejudice these "affordable units" and need to be eliminated. That was my point. You can probably bring about the same development in an area if you gave physicians a 50% discount on buying property or set aside special affordable units for them. Physicians would come in flocks!
Yes, tourists go to Paris for the artwork. So what, is JC going to compete with Paris? We are in the "tri-state" and we can't even compete with NYC. We cannot succeed by doing what NYC does. We will always be the ugly stepchild. Just accept it. No amount of programs aimed at artists will bring about development in JC. JC has never, does not, and will never pose any threat to NYC in any way, shape, or form. JC is close to NYC geographically. Any other closeness is imagined in the heads of crazy people. The success of Newport was brought about by special programs - abatements! And what do JCliseter's fight against? abatements! lol It's frightening how some are in favor of JC's own destruction. JC would not be what it is now without Lefrak and yet he is given no credit. And the market for luxury condos in DTJC is very high. The reason why condo development has stalled is the lending...banks aren't lending. brewster, sorry if the truth offends you.
Posted on: 2012/11/28 22:42
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Re: Property values in the Heights (post Sandy)
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Obviously it just depends on what their situation is. If their rent control apartment was destroyed, they're going to have a hard time replacing that price point in Hoboken, and may look elsewhere. Free market renters with destroyed apartments will probably find demand & rents increasing for dry apartments, so staying will depend on their budgets. But if they own, and are insured, then they most likely will stay. Not least because it's likely going to be hard to find a buyer for a garden apartment. Ian, nice post, though you're talking to a wall. There were educated people once who seriously believed that flies emerged spontaneously from piles of shit. V-15 would have been at home with them.
Posted on: 2012/11/28 21:40
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Re: Property values in the Heights (post Sandy)
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No.
Posted on: 2012/11/28 21:34
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Re: Property values in the Heights (post Sandy)
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This thread really started as a post-Sandy discussion. Will people in Hoboken consider moving to the Heights after this major flood? I honestly wondered the same thing. Not everyone that lives in Hoboken is near the PATH and many have to hop on the 126 or catch a cab to get home. I see a lot of people who live in the higher number streets catching the bus on Willow Ave (pre-storm) in the morning to get into the city. So, I wonder, why not just add 5-10 minutes to your commute AND get the added bonus of living on higher ground?
Posted on: 2012/11/28 21:23
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