Crime data is from JCPD UCR.

Population data was from various websites that had those random between-census-year estimates.

I'm trying to find the report that I have the 20 year data from. I believe it was a JCPD report, but I can't seem to find it now.

Quote:

Alright even if the JCPD was just counting Homicide, does that take away from how horrible the crime is? If a crime gets classified lets say as an armed burglary while the victim was home instead of an armed robbery does that change fact the crimes are virtually identical except for a minor detail. IF that is what the JCPD was attempting to do it is nothing more then a trick to misrepresent crime statistics.

Besides the JCPD site seems to be missing an equal number of "homicides" as well. If using them as a source is reliable when counting the stats why were these missing? So wouldn't that make your source unreliable.

***3.Michael Christopher- STRANGLED TO DEATH, A CLEAR CASE OF "HOMICIDE" THAT DID NOT SHOW UP BECAUSE THE CAUSE OF DEATH WAS NOT DETERMINED THE SAME MONTH.***

***18.Andre Scott- DIED FROM HEAD TRUAMA DURING A ROBBERY, FROM BEING BEATEN SO BAD. HE DIED MONTHS LATER SO IT DID NOT MAKE THE JCPD STATS ONLINE. ANOTHER CLEAR CASE OF "HOMICIDE".***

***19.Soveira Rojas- DIED FROM BEING SHOT IN THE CHEST AFTER A HEATED ARGUMENT WITH HER BOYFRIEND. A CLEAR CASE OF "HOMICIDE". THE REASON IT DID NOT SHOW UP IS IT TOOK MONTHS TO DETERMINE THE BOYFRIEND LIED TO DETECTIVES SAYING SHE COMMITED SUICIDE.***

***21.Lawrence Robertson- DIED FROM BEING SHOT TO DEATH BY HOOVER CRIP THAT FUEDS WITH LAWRENCE'S GANG THE BLOODS. DEFINATLEY A "HOMICIDE".***

***14.Shawn Huff- DIED FROM BEING SHOT TO DEATH, A CLEAR CASE OF "HOMICIDE". REASON FOR NOT MAKING THE JCPD STATS UNKNOWN.***



Also the UCR you seem to be so convinced does not count murders and only homicides just because you found some definition, does count both in their statistics.

This what you had because the JCPD has it on their website, you claim it is lower then every other statistic because they are following the UCR guidelines.

2007 16

Then why does the UCR have the same number on the stats as every other stat you claim adds them up different then the UCR? It clearly shows 20 not the 16 that are in the JCPD website.
http://www.njsp.org/info/ucr2007/pdf/2007-sect-6.pdf

If 2008 was on that UCR report I am sure that it's numbers would match every other statistic as well.

Quote:


The JCPD accounting is for Homicides, period, as defined by and in compliance with the FBI's CRIMESTAT Uniform Crime Reporting that thousands of municipalities participate in. This information is documented in great detail at the FBI website.

Your multi-sourced data contains a mixture of Murder and Homicide data as evident by my validity check. Therefore your analysis is faulty because the data is a heterogeneous mixture of crime data. Additionally, one must be sure that the two sets of data contain a consistent accounting of crime as well as a consistent taxonomy (e.g homogeneous data).

Your MULTIPLE data sources do not clearly specify that information. The same is true with the other poster in this thread, JC_DowntownRegular. It's more than just adding up numbers; one has to understand the underlying data they are handling. Unfortunately, for this discussion to be remotely of further interest, there is one other hurdle to get over, that being: innumeracy. That bar of has been set quite high.

Quote:
No problem, I will gladly point out my sources if you give me yours first. After all I did ask first. Once you do I will do the same and will respond to this post.

I completely understood what you were saying. However, I think saying that the murder rate is rising is a sensationalization of the facts - as many news reports do. I also do not see your "record breaking" either as the murder rate has been on average 23.68 +/- 5.80. With the exception of 2005 having 38 murders and 2007 having 17 murders, all the other years are within the average. Even if we use your data rather than what is in the UCR, it is still within average.

1996 was not a typo. Randomness is innate in statistics, though I used what data I could find for population. Here is what I have:


My math is not wrong, I think we are using different numbers.

1990 26 Murders Pop 228537 Rate 11.38
1996 26 Murders Pop 229039 Rate 11.35
2000 17 Murders Pop 240055 Rate 7.08
2003 24 Murders Pop 239097 Rate 10.03
2006 22 Murders Pop 241789 Rate 9.10
2008 22 Murders Pop 241114 Rate 9.12

Average Rate 9.68

Monthly rate
2005 18 3.6
2006 5 1.0
2007 7 1.4
2008 7 1.4

Average 1.85

Where did you get your data for 2007 and 2008 by month. I glanced at those websites, but did not see anything by month.

Regardless, I still don't see it as rising if it is within the average. If we use your numbers the average will be pushed slightly which pushed these numbers even more within the average range.

EDIT: I forgot to add: some years it goes up, some years it goes down. It's socially irresponsible IMHO to define trends on a year to year basis. (I find most news reports to be socially irresponsible.) With that logic, as an example, global warming isn't happening because this has been a cooler than normal year. I don't know if it actually is warmer or cooler, I'm just using this as an example - so no one out there start digging for the actual values.

Quote:
***YES I READ YOUR SOURCES. AS I SAID AND YOU SEEMED TO NOT CHECK THE FACT THAT I WAS RIGHT THAT THE JCPD LEAVES "HOMICIDES" OUT OF THE WEBSITE AS WELL SHOWS THE JCPD WEBSITE IS UNRELIABLE WHEN IT COMES TO SHOWING THE NUMBER OF HOMICIDES/MURDERS SINCE THEY SEEM TO BE MISSING AN EQUAL NUMBER OF BOTH. SINCE YOU SEEM TO BE IGNORING MY REASONS FOR WHY IT IS WRONG I BROKE IT DOWN FOR YOU TO SHOW YOU YOUR THEORY IS WRONG. ALSO THE REASON 05 AND 06 SEEM TO BE RIGHT IS THE JCPD DIDN'T START POSTING THE STATS UNTIL THE END OF 06 OR BEGINNING OF 07 MAKING IT EASY FOR THEM TO POST THE RIGHT STATS FOR THOSE YEARS WITH OUT MISTAKES. THAT IS WHY SEPTEMBER OF 06 TO JUNE OF 09 IS SET UP DIFFERENT THEN JANUARY OF 05 TO AUGUST OF 06. EVERY STATISTIC FOR CRIME RELEASED ON JERSEY CITY ADDS IN BOTH "HOMICIDES" AND "MURDERS" SO EVEN IF THE JCPD LEFT A FEW OUT FOR THOSE REASONS IT WOULD MAKE NO SENSE UNLESS THEY ARE PURPOSELY TRYING TO MISLEAD THE PUBLIC. IF YOU REMEMBER THE HIT & RUN ON FIRST AND WASHINGTON YEARS AGO THAT WAS COUNTED BY JCPD IN THE STATS "THEY" RELEASED TO THE JERSEY JOURNAL BACK THEN, SO IT WOULD MAKE NO SENSE TO COUNT A HIT & RUN THEN BUT NOT NOW.***

***EVERYTHING I TYPED IS IN ALL CAPS AND SUROUNDED BY STARS, EVERYTHING I COPIED AND PASTED IS NOT. I PASTED THE REST SO YOU CAN SEE WHAT I AM BASING THE ERRORS THE JCPD MADE ON.***



***2008***

***THE JCPD WEBSITE ONLY SHOWS 1 FOR THAT MONTH, THE REASON? THE AUTOPSY REPORT FOR MICHAEL CHRISTOPHER WAS NOT RELEASED UNTIL THE FOLLOWING MONTH WHEN THE JCPD WEBSITE ALREADY UPDATED JANUARY. SHARIFF WHITEHEAD JR. WAS NOT ON THE MONTH OF JANUARY BECAUSE IT WAS ALSO UPDATED BEFORE HE WAS DETERMINED TO OF DIED FROM ASPHYXIATION 11 MONTHS LATER.***

1. Christopher Rodas, 19, Old Bergen Road in Jersey City, was shot in the head on Jan. 6 during a robbery of his home near Linden Avenue, officials said. Arrested and indicted on the charge of felony murder were Jersey City residents Tyjuan Wilson, 22, Aquilla Roach, 21, Michael Graham, 20, and Rashawn Benekin, 22. They await trial.

2. Three-month-old Shariff Whitehead Jr. had multiple injuries when he died on Jan. 15, 2008 and his father, Shariff Whitehead Sr., 27, of New Heckman Drive, has been charged with aggravated manslaughter in the death, officials said. An autopsy determined the boy died of asphyxiation and had multiple rib injuries. Whitehead Sr. awaits trial.


3. Michael Christopher, 59, aka Michael Gatalla, of Brooklyn, was found dead in his parked vehicle on Kennedy Boulevard near Bond Street on Jan. 18, officials said. An autopsy determined he had been strangled. No one has been charged, but the investigation is pursuing leads to a potential suspect in Egypt.




***ALL 3 OF THESE SHOW UP ON THE WEBSITE FOR FEBRUARY.***

4. A 3-month-old Jersey City boy named Carlos died at Greenville Hospital on Feb. 8 due to hemorrhaging in the brain as a result of blunt force trauma to his head. The boy's 17-year-old father pleaded guilty to reckless manslaughter as a juvenile and was sentenced in November to three years probation.

5. Troy Gregory, 15, of Myrtle Avenue, was shot in the face on Feb. 17 at Oak Street near Martin Luther King Drive, officials said, adding that he had a gun in his pocket when found by police. Rashein Chandler, 19, of Dwight Street, and a boy were charged in his death as part of a gang roundup in October, officials said. The case awaits presentation to the grand jury.

6. Romana Pujols Gonzalez, 25, of Central Avenue, was found stabbed multiple times in the neck on Feb. 18 in her apartment near Leonard Street. Her boyfriend, William Davila, 36, of Delaware Avenue, was arrested and later indicted on the charge of murder, and he awaits trial.




***THIS MURDER SHOWS UP FOR MARCH.***

7. Michael Williams, 25, of Union Street, was fatally shot in the Montgomery Gardens housing complex on March 30, officials said. Charged in the killing were Jamonee Gantt, 19, Rashein Chandler, 19, Derrick Wallace, 20, Chajuan Hemingway, 20; Courtney Hemingway, 21; and a juvenile, officials said. The case awaits presentation to the grand jury.




***THESE 7 SHOW UP FOR APRIL.***

8. Darian White, 27, of Madison Avenue, was shot multiple times on April 3 at Clinton Avenue near West Side Avenue during what officials described as horseplay turned deadly. Andre DeBerry, 20, of Jersey City, was arrested and later indicted on the charge of murder, and he awaits trial.

9. Zulma Aviles, 55, of Queens, was stabbed in the neck and torso during what appears to have been a murder/suicide in the home of her boyfriend, Orlando Garced, 48, on Duncan Avenue off Kennedy Boulevard. Garced was also found dead in the home after cutting a vein near his elbow and stabbing himself in the neck and abdomen.

10. Damien Williams, 28, Ocean Avenue, died after being shot once in the chest near the corner of Grant and Rose avenues on April 19. The murder is still under investigation and no arrests have been made.

11. Ramon Francisco Morales, 21, of Glenwood Avenue, was shot during a robbery at West Side and Highland avenues on April 19. Quaheem Johnson, 21, of Duncan Avenue, was arrested after allegedly robbing two more people after the shooting and he pulled a gun on arresting officers. He has been indicted on the charge of murder and awaits trial.

12. Kawaun Martin, 24, of Claremont Avenue, was killed and two other people were injured in a shooting on Orient Avenue near Martin Luther King Drive on April 19. The investigation is ongoing. No one has been charged.

13. Naquan (aka "Nakwon") Jeter , 21, was shot at Warner Avenue near Kennedy Boulevard on April 26 during a triple shooting that also claimed the life of Terrence Sumpter. A handgun was found near his body. No arrests have been made.

14. Terrence Sumpter, 22, was gunned down in a triple shooting at Warner Avenue near Kennedy Boulevard on April 26 that also claimed the life of Naquan Jeter. Police say those involved may have been involved in a shootout. No arrests have been made.




***THESE 2 SHOW UP FOR MAY.***

15. Jason Sharpe, 24, of Wilkinson Avenue, was stabbed in the heart and lung on May 13 at Ocean Avenue and Wegman Parkway. Kason Hockett, 22, of Bartholdi Avenue, was arrested, indicted on the charge of murder and awaits trial. The stabbing followed an argument on the street.

16. Keith Clinton, 18, was found with a gunshot wound to his chest on May 25 at the corner of Oak Street and Bergen Avenue, and was rushed to the Jersey City Medical Center, where he was pronounced dead. No arrest has been made.




***THIS ONE SHOWS UP FOR JUNE.***

17. Terrell Martin, 24, of Claremont Avenue, was shot in the A. Harry Moore public housing complex on June 25 during a game of dice. Husain Booker, 27, of Armstrong Avenue, was wounded during the shooting, which might have been payback for a robbery. No one has been charged.




***THIS ONE DOES NOT SHOW UP FOR JULY, WHY? IT WAS NOT DETERMINED HE DIED FROM INJURIES FROM THE ROBBERY UNTIL MONTHS LATER, THE SUSPECT WAS CHARGED WITH "FELONY MURDER".***

18. Andre Scott, 49, of Armstrong Avenue, suffered a fractured nose and fatal head trauma during a robbery on Armstrong Avenue near Martin Luther King Drive on July 16. He died at the Jersey City Medical Center two days later. Angelo Williams, 28, aka "H," was charged with felony murder and robbery. The case awaits presentation to the grand jury.




***FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST THE ONLY 1 THAT SHOWS UP IS THE MURDER OF MARK KENDALL. THE MURDER OF SOVEIRA ROJAS DOES NOT SHOW UP BECAUSE THE BOYFRIEND SAID IT WAS SUICIDE AND IT TOOK A FEW MONTHS TO DETERMINE IT WAS MURDER AND NOT SUICIDE. THE MURDER OF LAWRENCE ROBERTSON DID NOT SHOW UP MOST LIKELY BECAUSE THIS IS ONE OF THOSE CASES I WAS SPEAKING ON WHERE THE JCPD SIMPLY "FORGOT" TO ADD IT TO THE STATS ONLINE. LAWRENCE ROBERTSON WAS A BLOOD AND THIS WAS A GANG HIT COMMITTED BY GREGORY MALLARD, A HOOVER CRIP.***

19. Soveira Rojas, 29, was found dead in her Webster Avenue bedroom on Aug. 10 with a gunshot to her chest. Her boyfriend, Leonardo "Lenny" Buccheri, 40, who shared the home, dialed 911. He was first arrested on the charge of possession of a firearm by a felon and was charged on Oct. 24 with her murder. The case awaits presentation to the grand jury.

20. Mark Kendall, 26, was found with multiple stab wounds between two parked cars in front of his home at Summit and Carlton avenues on Aug. 16. Darwin Rodriguez-Ferreira, 22, who lived nearby, was arrested at Newark Liberty International Airport on Aug. 21 after returning from the Dominican Republic. The case awaits presentation to the grand jury. His mother and sister were charged with helping him flee the country and they have since posted bail.

21. Lawrence Robertson, 19, of Fulton Avenue, was shot twice in the head during an Aug. 31 shootout at 15th Street and Jersey Avenue, officials said. Gregory Mallard, 19, of Parnell Place, was arrested and charged with the murder. Robertson was apparently killed when rival groups clashed at the Holland Gardens housing complex. The case is pending presentation to the grand jury.




***BOTH OF THESE SHOW UP FOR SEPTEMBER.***

22. Michael Fuccile, 36, of Metuchen, was stabbed to death at the Liberty State Park Light Rail Station the morning of Sept. 4 while commuting to work on the Jersey City waterfront. Elgin Louis Taylor Jr., 24, of Communipaw Avenue, was charged with the murder. He was later indicted and pleaded not guilty at his arraignment on Monday. Taylor has a history of mental illness.

23. Joseph Maske, 23, was stabbed to death on the street at Wegman Parkway near Ocean Avenue on Sept. 7 by the now-15-year-old brother of his girlfriend after the couple argued in their home. The boy was originally charged with murder but has pleaded guilty to manslaughter. On Jan. 5, he was sentenced to three years in the Jamesburg Youth Correctional Facility.




***THIS 1 SHOWS UP FOR OCTOBER.***

24. Adrell Bennett, 19, of Wade Street, was wanted by police on drug dealing charges related to a gang roundup when he was shot at a friend's home on Oct. 15 at Arlington and Myrtle avenues. Two men forced their way into the apartment and apparently chased him into a bathroom where he was later found dead in the bathtub. No one has been charged.




***THIS ONE SHOWS UP FOR NOVEMBER.***


25. Jose Tecson, 55, of Roosevelt Avenue, was stabbed to death during a Nov. 6 burglary of his home off Mallory Avenue. Tecson, who worked nights, was home during the daytime burglary and there were signs he was tied up and was trying to escape when killed. The burglar entered the apartment by removing the air-conditioner from an alley window. No arrests have been made.




***BOTH OF THESE SHOW UP FOR DECEMBER.***

26. Tyrone W. Counts, 43, was beaten with a baseball bat and stabbed to death on Dec. 11 in the apartment of Carmen Matos, 47, at Palisade Avenue and Waverly Street. Matos was arrested the next day after telling police about the body, and her 17-year-old son and the son's 18-year-old homeless friend, Christopher Gonzalez, were also charged with murder. The case is pending presentation to the grand jury.

27. Henry Molesky, 41, of Woodlawn Avenue, was shot on Dec. 12 at Clinton Street near West Side Avenue and he died at the Jersey City Medical Center two days later. Timothy Williams, 26, of Jersey City, has been charged with the murder, which police say was precipitated by a dispute earlier the night of the shooting. The case is pending presentation to the grand jury.




***5 DO NOT SHOW UP ON THE JCPD WEBSITE FOR THIS YEAR WHILE MAYBE YOU COULD ARGUE ONE OR TWO ARE NOT ON THERE BECAUSE OF YOUR ARGUMENT THE JCPD IS GOING BY THE "MURDER"/"HOMICIDE" DEFINITION WHEN PUTTING THEM ONLINE A FEW OF THESE CASES CONTRIDICT YOUR THEORY AND SHOW IT BE A CASE OF NOT MAKING CORRECTIONS WHEN MISTAKES ARE MADE.***

***3.Michael Christopher- STRANGLED TO DEATH, A CLEAR CASE OF "HOMICIDE" THAT DID NOT SHOW UP BECAUSE THE CAUSE OF DEATH WAS NOT DETERMINED THE SAME MONTH.***

***2.Shariff Whitehead Jr- DIED OF ASPHYXIATION, I CONSIDER THIS A "HOMICIDE" BUT SINCE THE PARENTS WERE CHARGED WITH AGGRAVATED MURDER I GUESS THAT WOULD PUT THIS IN YOUR "MURDER" CATAGORY.***

***18.Andre Scott- DIED FROM HEAD TRUAMA DURING A ROBBERY, FROM BEING BEATEN SO BAD. HE DIED MONTHS LATER SO IT DID NOT MAKE THE JCPD STATS ONLINE. ANOTHER CLEAR CASE OF "HOMICIDE".***

***19.Soveira Rojas- DIED FROM BEING SHOT IN THE CHEST AFTER A HEATED ARGUMENT WITH HER BOYFRIEND. A CLEAR CASE OF "HOMICIDE". THE REASON IT DID NOT SHOW UP IS IT TOOK MONTHS TO DETERMINE THE BOYFRIEND LIED TO DETECTIVES SAYING SHE COMMITED SUICIDE.***

***21.Lawrence Robertson- DIED FROM BEING SHOT TO DEATH BY HOOVER CRIP THAT FUEDS WITH LAWRENCE'S GANG THE BLOODS. DEFINATLEY A "HOMICIDE".***

----------------------------------------------------------------------------


***2009***

***NOW LETS LOOK AT 2009 SHALL WE...***


***ONLY 3 OF THESE CASES SHOW UP FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY, MOST LIKELY THE ONE THAT DOES NOT SHOW UP WAS SHIRLEY KITCHENS.***

January 22
1.Elisha Benjamin, 59, was shot in the arm and chest with a rifle in a robbery in his bodega. Two young men burst into the store, gathered up the employees and customers, and when Benjamin spoke up one of the robbers shot him, and used the rifle to rob the customers, the register, and the dying man. The bodega was also involved in an illegal numbers racket.

David Ashley, 25, was arrested in connection to the crime.


January 27
2.Kiritkumar Parikh, 57, was shot in an attempted robbery on his bodega in Jersey City, a few buildings down from a high school.

No suspects have been arrested so far in the investigation.


January 30
3.Nigel Gore of Bayonne, 21, was killed with multiple gunshot wounds in Jersey City. He was approached on the street by two masked gunmen who opened up with a hail of gunfire, damaging nearby buildings and cars.

A 16-year-old was arrested in connection to the crime, which was a possible gang attack.


January 30
4.Shirley Kitchens, 48, was killed in a hit and run in Jersey City. She was a mother of 7, and was crossing the street in a walker when a speeding car hit her and fled.




***BOTH OF THESE SHOW UP.***

February 10
5.Justin McNeil, 21, was shot multiple times in the chest in Jersey City.

No arrests have been made so far in connection to the crime.

February 24
6.Carlos Orlando Quinones, 27, was beaten to death by a gang of teenage boys in a robbery attempt in his Jersey City bodega. The gang bashed his head in with a brick, and Quinones died in a coma March 2.

Eight boys between the ages of 13 and 17 were arrested in connection with the murder.




***THIS ONE SHOWS UP.***

March 28
7.Antwan Baisden, 23, was shot in the head in Jersey City.

Motives and suspects are unclear in this case.




***ALL 3 OF THESE SHOW UP.***

April 1
8.Ormont Logan, 26, was shot multiple times in Jersey City's West Side.

Darryl Denmark, a romantic rival, turned himself in in connection to the crime. He was having trouble sleeping due to the guilt.

April 21
9.Pedro Roman Jr., 17, was shot in the chest and through the head in a dispute in Triangle Park, Jersey City.

Pashawn Holmes of Clifton was arrested in connection to the crime.


April 25
10.Jalil Spears, 22, was shot in the head in the Booker T. Washington projects.

No arrests have been made so far in the case, but Spears had committed a drive-by earlier that year.




***ONLY 4 OF THESE 6 SHOW UP. ONE OF THE WEST PRECINCT KILLINGS DOES NOT SHOW UP AND NEITHER DOES THE MURDER AT EXCHANGE PLACE.***

May 6
11.Manuel Reyes Sr, 48, was stabbed in his neck and shoulder in Journal Square, Jersey City, in the doorway of his apartment in a robbery gone wrong.

Esteban Gonzalez of Union City was charged for the murder.

May 14
12.Michael Pennetta of Bayonne, 23, was killed while riding a motorcycle in Jersey City. A felon fleeing in a stolen car struck him in a hit and run and continued speeding, being caught by the police up the road.

Dyrell Boatwright, 23, was arrested for the homicide.

May 17
13.Darrell Simmons, 43, was killed by choking in Jersey City Heights by a houseguest.

Leonardo Novoa of Jersey City was arrested and charged with the crime, which possibly was drug-related.


May 23
14.Shawn Huff, 19, was shot in the legs, chest, and abdomen in a drive-by shooting at Exchange Place. Another man in the group suffered a gunshot to the leg. After being in the hospital for several weeks, Huff died of his wounds on June 12.

Terrell Sandifer was arrested in connection to the shootings, though authorities believe that he was not the man that pulled the trigger, but only a driver.


May 25
15.Marion Ortiz, 25, was killed with a single gunshot to the head while standing on a street corner in the Bergen-Lafayette section of Jersey City.

No one has been arrested in the investigation.


May 25
16.Kareem Hilliard, 27, was killed with three gunshots to his back in Greenville, Jersey City.

No one has been arrested in the investigation.



***THESE 2 SHOW UP FOR JUNE***

June 8
17.Darius Burgess, 28, was shot in the back in a park in Journal Square, Jersey City.

No suspects have been arrested in the investigation. It's thought that the killer had mistaken him for another man, with whom he was arguing over a girl.

June 28
18.Kevin Miller, 28, was pistol whipped by a gang of men and shot in the eye in Jersey City. Miller was jumped after an argument with a female friend of the killers', and allegedly became violent with the woman.

Devon Carter, 25, was arrested and charged with firing the fatal shot, which went from Miller's left eyebrow through the back of his head.




***THESE 2 HAVE NOT BEEN PUT IN THE SYSTEM YET.***

July 16
19.Officer Marc Dinardo, 37, was killed by a shotgun blast to the face while storming an apartment of two armed criminals who had shot a civilian and police officer already in Jersey City.

He died of his wound four days later. Hassan Shakur, the shooter, died in a hail of gunfire seconds after mortally wounding Dinardo.


August 6
20.James Rhodes of Bayonne, 30, was shot once in the wrist and three times in the chest in an argument over a bicycle in Jersey City. He survived his injuries for almost a year, dying on July 29, 2009.

Derrick Stinson, 20 has been in jail since shortly after the incident, and has been charged with murder.




***NOW THATS 3 THAT DID NOT SHOW UP FOR THIS YEAR. TWO OF THESE, THE HIT & RUNS, FALL UNDER YOUR DEFINITION OF "MURDER" BUT ONE IS CLEARLY A HOMICIDE.***

***4.Shirley Kitchens- HIT & RUN***

***12.Michael Pennetta- HIT & RUN***

***14.Shawn Huff- DIED FROM BEING SHOT TO DEATH, A CLEAR CASE OF "HOMICIDE". REASON FOR NOT MAKING THE JCPD STATS UNKNOWN.***
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

***IN CASE YOU WERE WONDERING GROVEPATH I TYPED IN ALL CAPS TO LET WHAT I TYPED STAND OUT FROM WHAT I COPIED AND PASTED. ***

Quote:
I think you are misunderstanding me when I say the murder rate is increasing. I am talking about year to year not over a 20 year period. When any news report shows an increase or decrease in any crime category they are talking year to year as I am.

A rise from 22 murders in 07 to 27 in 08 is a rise from 07 to 08 (year to year). I was pointing out however that it is the second highest number of murders we have had in over 10 years since we had 26 in 1998 and the only year worst then that in that time period was 05 with 38 the highest since the late 80's. I was also trying to point out since we are at 20 so far this year when 18 were recorded for this time last year the possibility of passing 08's body count is increased. Making it possible we might have three record breaking years with in the last 5 compared to a period of over 10 years.

I am curious how you got your 20 year average? I can't seem to find any stats online that show every year for the past 20 only bits and pieces.

I can't find the year of 1996 online, so I am going to assume you are basing those years you compared to the Website I found and 1996 was a typo. If I am right about that then your math is wrong on the average murder rate for those years. I don't know why you picked such random years though.
Year-----Rate
1990----12.3
1996----11.0
2003----10.4
2006----09.2
2008----11.2

Total average=10.82 or 10.72 if you were going on the false stats on the JCPD Website.
Here are my sources.
http://www.disastercenter.com/newjersy/crime/8255.htm
http://www.city-data.com/city/Jersey-City-New-Jersey.html

Your math is wrong on the last 5 month average also it is not 1.85.

Murders------August-December-------Monthly Rate
2005------------------18------------------3.6
2006------------------05------------------01
2007------------------11------------------2.2
2008------------------12------------------2.4
Total------------------46------------------2.3

So if the pattern did continue it would mean another 11 or 12 bringing the total to 31 or 32 not 29. Honestly I hope we are both wrong and we have none for the rest of the year.

Misplaced quote tag. I should not be quoting myself. Sorry for the confusion. Below is my reply.


Your #s do not reconcile.

I listed #s from 2005 - 2008, from one source, for homicide. Comparing those #s with what you provided, over that same time period, sourcing figures from two different sources, the numbers match for 2005 & 2006, comprising of one source, but not from the other for 2007 & 2008.

In other words I am concluding that your #s are not consistent as in 2005 - 2006 are "homicide" numbers and the 2007-2008 are "murder" numbers. Murder and homicide are not one in the same - they are two different taxonomies when enumerating crime stats.

Not only does one need to be mindful of the crime taxonomy/classification but also the methodology in accounting for such crime. For instance, UCR and NCVS are two different methodologies. How data is accounted for and classified must be consistent.

Quote:

Your #s do not reconcile.

I listed #s from 2005 - 2008, from one source, for homicide. Comparing those #s with what you provided, over that same time period, sourcing figures from two different sources, the numbers match for 2005 & 2006, comprising of one source, but not from the other for 2007 & 2008.

In other words I am concluding that your #s are not consistent as in 2005 - 2006 are "homicide" numbers and the 2007-2008 are "murder" numbers. Murder and homicide are not one in the same - they are two different taxonomies when enumerating crime stats.

Not only does one need to be mindful of the crime taxonomy/classification but also the methodology in accounting for such crime. For instance, UCR and NCVS are two different methodologies.
How data is accounted for and classified must be consistent.

20 year average for murders in JC - 23.68 with a 5.8 standard deviation.

I'm still not buying the rising murder rate and will wait for the final numbers. I'm not going to say there is a trend up or down with just a few years worth of statistics.

I took a quick glance at some murder rate statistics and the JC population for 1990, 1996, 2003, 2006, and 2008.

The average murder rate per 100,000 people for these years is 9.68 (1.48 STD).

If the yearly murder rate hits 30 and the population remains constant, then we are looking at 12 murders/100000.

If we get the usual 1.85 murders per month for the last five months of the year (as calculated from 2005 to 2008), we will hit 29 murders by years end, which will put it just under statistically significant probably.

Plot out a trend line for murder since 1990 and the line is pretty flat.

Quote:

That's a nice assertion, but the numbers do not back it up. The East (District) which comprises downtown is always a contender for top crime spot among the 4 locations.

What is the over under, 30 ? What would be the one thing that would stop the crime rate in Jersey City, because, if you live outside of downtown, some of the neighborhoods are ignored, imporverished and with an even higher unemployment rate, crime would naturally rise, unfortunately.

Quote:
You are going off what is on the JCPD website correct? And you think that is why the numbers are off because lets say a hit and run, according to what you are trying to say the hit and run shouldn't show up on their site, because it wasn't a "willful killing" right? Well the one in Downtown does show up on that site the reason less are on there has nothing to do with the definition, homicide/murder are the same thing to the JCPD statistics and the ones I shown.

The reason the numbers are different is because some of the cases are not confirmed as a homicide/murder right away. For example last year a man that killed his girlfriend in the Heights and said she killed herself a couple months later it was determined it was murder, it did not make the site because it was updated before that could be determined. A few cases get left out like that and because they "forget" not because of the reason you are thinking. I follow that site as well and they left a few murders out that should have been in there but never fix any mistakes.

That's a commendable effort, JerseyCityNj, but you do realize the data you list contains a mixed bag of homicide and murder counts. From the numbers I furnished, it makes a material difference when doing the yearly comparison.

Quote:
For 1999-2007 scroll down to the chart crime in Jersey City by year.
http://www.city-data.com/city/Jersey-City-New-Jersey.html
2008

For 2008 go here for a numbered list of those murdered, it is post #9.
http://jclist.com/modules/newbb/viewt ... id=180485#forumpost180485

To see how many were murdered so far for 2009 go here it list 19 because the most recent one this topic is based on has not been added yet.
http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?gl=us& ... 461.00046c0c8bf50984defdd

Where are you sourcing your numbers? 2005 and 2006 are the same, but 2007 and 2008 differ from: the Jersey City Police Department's CRIMESTAT/UCR website (http://www.njjcpd.org/)


Year City Wide Homicide Count
2005 38
2006 22
2007 16
2008 22
2009 15 (through June 30th)


Perhaps it comes down to the definition of Homicide and Murder.

The homicide reported by the JCPD is really "criminal homicide" as defined by the UCR handbook here (starting @ page 15):

http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/handbook/ucrhandbook04.pdf

Definition: The willful (nonnegligent) killing of one human being by another.

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How do you not call that a rising murder rate? Every year is under 2009 in murders from what you shown except 2005 which had the highest murder rate since the 80's.


Murders in JC (January thru July) Murders(August-December)
2005 20------------------------------2005 18
2006 17------------------------------2006 05
2007 09------------------------------2007 11
2008 15------------------------------2008 12
2009 20------------------------------2009 **

Murder totals
1999 15
2000 17
2001 25
2002 21
2003 24
2004 23
2005 38
2006 22
2007 20
2008 27

Now looking at the rest of the years the stats show us their is a good chance the rest of the murders that will take place will be in the double digits. Only 7 more murders were committed last year compared to so far this year. Now I hope the rest of this year more closely resembles the second half of 2006 but that is very unlikely

Quote:

Murders in JC (January thru July)
2005 20
2006 17
2007 9
2008 15
2009 20

I wouldn't call this a rising murder rate. Sad yes, rising no.

I would also say that people are very diversified as to what they read and comment on (though I haven't worked on the statistics to back that up). There are a lot of issues, great and small, that this city has and all have an impact as to the quality of life.

Don't criticize people for what they take up as their issues. Better they take up a cause whatever it may be rather than sit idly by and say or do nothing.

Murder suspect's bail increased
Tuesday, August 04, 2009

Bail for a 20-year-old Jersey City man who allegedly shot a Bayonne man in the stomach last year has been increased in light of the victim's death on July 25.

Bail was set yesterday at $750,000 for Derrick Stinson, who now faces murder charges after the victim, James Rhodes, 30, died last month.

Stinson has been in jail since September. The shooting, on Aug. 6, took place on Fulton Street near Bayside Place.

According to police, Rhodes had been arguing with two men over a bicycle chained to a nearby fence before he was shot once in the wrist and three times in the torso.

Stinson was indicted on Feb. 9 for attempted murder, aggravated assault and firearm offenses.

The case against Stinson will be re-presented to a grand jury with the murder charge to reflect Rhodes' death, Hudson County Prosecutor Edward DeFazio said.

PAUL TAKAHASHI




This is the 20th homicide so far this year. At this time last year Jersey City had 18 homicides. Last years homicide total was 27 the second highest in ten years.