A 2008 report put out by the Policy Research Board at Princeton points out that most of the out-migrants go to states with higher state income taxes, and says that tax rates don't explain the patterns. They believe it's the cost of living in NJ pushing out poorer people. Few people left after a tax hike on the wealthy in 2004, and between 2006 and 2008 the number of high earners in NJ increased.

Contrary to what you may assume (as I did), senior citizens are less likely to leave. People aged 18-24 are over 6 times more likely to move out of NJ than someone over age 65. Presumably this is because senior citizens have ties to their community.

http://www.leg.state.vt.us/jfo/Tax%20 ... Study%20-%20Princeton.pdf


It's rather telling that the Regent paper has a few anecdotes about fleeing high earners, and is devoid of demographic information about what groups are actually leaving. It's also unlikely that when moving from NJ to PA or FL, that all the variables they list in their scenarios will stay the same -- e.g. home value, income, cost of living.

Their report does have some factually accurate points, e.g. Florida basically doesn't have an estate tax. But overall, it looks like a conservative hit job, which conveniently fails to back up its key claim -- that high income / affluent individuals are fleeing in droves.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03 ... -regentatlantic-says.html

Here's a little more on the report. 41% moved to Florida and 20% moved to PA. I'm curious to know how many of the exodees were also retirees.

Born to Run Away From High Taxes. Report: New Jersey residents fleeing high tax burdens in the state : New Jersey?s high taxes may be costing the state billions of dollars a year in lost revenue as high-earning residents flee, according to a recent study.

The study, Exodus on the Parkway, was completed by Regent Atlantic last year but held for publication until after the November 2013 elections. The study stated it ?intentionally? held its results ?as 2014 is not an election year for state legislators? and it will ?hopefully encourage a serious and objective dialogue aimed at addressing and solving the challenges that New Jersey currently faces.?

The study shows the state has been steadily losing high-net-worth residents since 2004, when Democratic Gov. Jim McGreevey signed the millionaire?s tax into law. The law raised the state income tax 41 percent on those earning $500,000 or more a year.



So goes our attempt to tax ourselves into prosperity.