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I'm missing the distinction.

Politicial Insider Column from The Jersey Journal

Some argue it's too early to be hailing Healy

Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Polls are considered a mathematical exercise. Some swear polling is a science and others say the results of these paid-for surveys are just the lies that politicians want to hear and then spread among the voting populace.

An example of the work by one of the world's first political pollsters was revealed by, of all people, William Shakespeare. The main character in the Bard's "Macbeth" was happy with his polling firm, the Three Witches, who work best "When the hurlyburly's done, When the battle's lost and won."

Of course they did not deal with percentages and simply told the future monarch: "All hail, Macbeth, thou shalt be king hereafter!" A declaration of polling results was good enough back then, but if one were to use percentages, it would no doubt be a 100 percent approval rating.

When the poll figures for Jersey City Mayor Jerramiah Healy were leaked Monday to the Web site PolitickersNj.com, the approval ratings of the chairman of the Hudson County Democratic Organization were not as good as Macbeth's, but still breathtaking.

Pollster Joel Benenson has Healy's approval rating at 71 percent to 25 percent, and a 66 percent to 22 percent favorability rating. One presumes we're talking about the higher figures in the range. It wants to make one say, "All hail Healy!"

At Monday evening's Lincoln Day Dinner hosted by the Hoboken Democratic Party, Carl Czaplicki, head of Jersey City's Department of Housing, Economic Development and Commerce, answered a cynical response to the poll by saying the results are a true reading of a popular mayor. "(Healy) is well-liked," he said.

Then again, what happened to Macbeth? More to the point, what happened to former Assemblyman Lou Manzo, whose pollster, the same Benenson, had him taking the 2005 mayoral race?

In Healy's case, there is always someone who does not believe the majority of city residents are ready to declare him "Imperator JerseyCitus."

One such person is city Councilman Steven Fulop, who questions high approval for a mayor whom he says has raised taxes by 35 percent since he has been in office.

"There isn't a politician in the state who has those (poll) numbers," said an incredulous Fulop, who is one of those most likely to challenge Healy in next year's city election.

He also questions why the administration feels they have to come out with polling results more than year before the municipal election.

Several sources say it became necessary once the administration got wind of another poll being done in the city. The Benenson poll may have been a pre-emptive strike.

"Trying to sell people on these approval ratings is an indication of someone who is concerned (about the city election)," said the Downtown councilman. "He can fool those around the state, but he can't pull the wool over the eyes of people who live here."

Perhaps, yet, were the city election held today, Healy would have to be cast as the favorite. Besides being an incumbent and having a rich campaign war chest, Healy has the mayoral pulpit from which to campaign each day. Also, the voter needs time to consider any opposition while the negative attacks are in full swing.

The Three Witches poll came with a caveat, which means people should be wary of polls. They should be quite wary of leaked polls because you don't get the bad news that may stick out like an ugly toad in a cauldron. Why not release all of the poll - if it's that good? How did other possible candidates do?

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While I think this line is funny and not altogether far-fetched given the mayor's documented shenanigans, it's still a dirty, unnecessary political jab. With classy attack instincts like these, it's no surprise that Fulop supports Sen. Clinton for president.

How do you reform a dirty political landscape by becoming it?

(Cue the torches and pitchforks to hunt me down and get me!)

Jersey City mayoral hopefuls doubt polling data

By Matt Friedman
www.politickernj.com
Tags: Steve Fulop, Lou Manzo, Jerramiah Healy

A poll showing Jersey City Mayor Jerramiah Healy?s approval rating at 71% has two of his rivals skeptical.

Former Assemblyman Lou Manzo and Jersey City Councilman Steve Fulop are both considering making a bid for the seat in 2009. And based on what they?ve seen across town, they don?t believe it?s possible for Healy to have an approval rating of 71%, or a favorability rating of 66%.

?Taxes are up 35%, crime is still an issue. A reasonable person would ask if that poll is valid,? said Fulop. ?It was likely conducted at the Astor Bar between the hours of 11 (p.m.) and 2(a.m.) ? then it would make sense.?

Manzo, who has run for mayor four times since 1992, has commissioned his own mayoral poll. While the numbers aren?t in yet, he?ll be shocked if they bare any resemblance to the poll released today. He said that Jersey City residents he talks to tend to find Healy likable, but feel the brunt of rising property taxes and don?t feel any safer, despite a statistical drop in crime.

Manzo pointed out that he used the same pollster, Joel Benenson, during his state Senate race last year. In that poll, Healy?s negatives were higher than his positives. This poll, Manzo suggested, is more of a fundraising tool than a measurement of public opinion.

?It?s kind of hard to believe those numbers unless it?s a push poll. Some pollsters will put a spin for you to go out and raise money,? he said. ?You can ask a question: if Jerry Healy lowers your taxes next year by 40% and there?s no murder, violent crime and your street gets paved in the next couple months, would you vote for him??

Manzo recently opened up a public advocacy office -- mainly, he said, to address the public?s concerns about Gov. Corzine?s fiscal restructuring plan. Many observers see the move as a way to get out in front of a potentially crowded pack of mayoral candidates.

Other politicians whose names have been floated as potential candidates in the non-partisan race include two Healy allies during last year?s legislative races: State Sen. Sandra B. Cunningham and Assemblyman L. Harvey Smith. Smith served as acting mayor for six months after the death of Sandra Cunningham?s husband, former Mayor Glenn Cunningham. Also named are former Mayor Bret Schundler, a conservative Republican who served from 1993 to 2001, and Councilman Steve Lipksi.

Healy could not immediately be reached for comment.

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