i said this a couple months back already, you have major layoffs on wallstreet, the crash of the stock market, a reccession confidence shaker, and on top of a frozen credit(lending). It doesnt take a rocket scientist to figure out what will happen to the real estate market here, not to mention the downtown JC real estate prices havent really fallen much compared to the rest of the country last year to mid this year.

I work in the financial sector, half of my coworkers in jersey city has already been laid off with more to come, everyone is miserable.

This was posted on Kannekt also...wanted to post it here too:

I've been watching real estate sales in JC in the $700k to $1.1 million range very closely over the past 90 days. Some of my personal observations are:

Almost none of the existing (resales) condos/brownstones/townhomes have sold (and I've personally looked at well over 25 units in that price range).

According to the assessors web site, here's what I'm seeing:

(Parameters: All sales, Jersey City, 90 days, $700k to $1.1 million)
Total 90 day sales: 30 (56 reported, but 26 of those appear to be parking spots)

Of those 30 sales, it appears to be broken down as:

1 at Shore Club
1 at 201 Marin Blvd (Gulls Cove)
17 at Trump Tower (88 Morgan)
5 at A Condos (389 Washington)
2 at Port Liberte (13 Half Moon Isle & 15 Intrepid Place)
1 at 215 Pavonia Ave (Unknown)
1 at 285 St. Pauls Ave
2 sales to JC redevelopment agency (unknown)

Now lets take that a little further and look at the last 60 days:

Of those 30 sales, only 6 Occured in the last 60 days:

3 were at Trump
1 at 201 Marin
1 at A Condos
1 at Port Liberte

It appears to take the assesor site about 3 to 4 weeks to update, but it's pretty alarming how much the sales volume in that price range appears to have dropped in September.

In addition, let's look at supply. How many units are unsold in that price range in Trump? Gulls Cove? A? 77 Hudson (which hasn't even started closing yet...that's going to be very interesting to watch!), etc. How about all of the existing re-sales? Unfortunately I don't have access to the hudson county MLS, but my guess would be close to 300 to 400 or more units for sale in that price range between resales and new construction.

At the snail slow sales pace that it appears to be moving at in this price range, we will soon have an unprecidented inventory in that price range. Let's explore some of the further negative factors that will influence it in the forthcomiong months:

Soon, the temporary FNMA loan limit will be reduced from $729k to what appears to be $650k, making institutional secondary market paper harder to obtain, requiring even larger down payments.

FNMA / FHLMC has already made it incredibly difficult to qualify for a loan in new construction condo buildings with much more stringent pre-sale / HOA requirements that ever before. It's going to be very difficult trying to qualify for a favorable rate on a property in new properties that are not 50%+ closed. Most will have to turn to the non-warrantable portfolio lending market, which often has rates of 7 to 8% or more!

Most of the people purchasing in this price range in JC have jobs that are tied to finance / i-banking / wall street. We all know how that job market / confidence level has been over the past few months. Increased worry over the prospect of continued employment and/or large bonuses equates to less people willing to pull the trigger on this price range.

With sales slowing down dramatically, it is going to become increasingly difficult to obtain an appraisal that adequately supports the value of these listings. Mortgage underwriters are very, very nervous these days and most are going to require at least 2 comps that have closed within the last 90 days to be analyzed in the appraisal report because Jersey City is in a declining market. As any of you can research on the Assessor page, this is going to be more and more of a monumental feat (finding good comps in 90 days in JC) as time progresses, which may make it very difficult to get an underwriter to accept an appraisal that is submitted.

It is my opinion that this particular price range is going to see a pretty dramatic hit in the next 6 to 12 months. Simple law of supply and demand. I wouldn't be a bit surprised if we get to a point of 18 to 24 month inventory in the $700k to $1.1mm range which is going to definetly put a hamper on prices. Prices come down, people get more interest, closings happen, inventory starts to balance out.

I think the lower price ranges of $450k to $600k will see a hit, but not nearly as bad as the $700k to $1.1mm range. the $450k to $600k range is more attainable with the area median income stats and the rent vs. own price point is more favorable there.

And for all of you skeptics on the board, I'm not some flake spewing out wishful numbers. I've personally been in real estate finance for over 16 years and have PERSONALLY closed more than 2,000 transactions. My client base and business is in the Midwestern / Southern US, but I have lived in JC for 8 years and spend most of my time in my home out here. I personally am ready to call JC my permanent home and have been watching the market very closely as I'm ready to buy when the time is right. This is my opinion and as we all know in this crazy market, anything could happen and this might not be as bad as I forecast, but my bets are on this scenario.