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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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bodhipooh wrote:
Even if you are making 400K+ as a couple, things can be tight, even without anything going wrong. People look at salaries like 200K per person and think it is a lot, but it really isn't all that much. In between federal and state income taxes, plus labor taxes like SS and Medicare, you are likely paying out close to 40% your income.

If you have a combined income of $400k, and you're paying a 40% effective tax rate, then you need to fire your accountant ASAP. It should be closer to 22%. That's the average for that income bracket (and includes payroll taxes, deductions etc)

A couple with that income could easily handle a $6,000/month mortgage. If we use the dreaded 30% rule, they could afford to spend up to $10,000 / month on housing.

Plus, the interest is a tax deduction, possibly worth $17,000 in the first year. So, that helps.

And when in doubt, use the good ol' NY Times Rent vs Own Calculators...
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/bu ... s/buy-rent-calculator.php

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/20 ... rent-calculator.html?_r=0

Posted on: 2015/10/27 0:41
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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SRhia wrote:
I understand prices can vary a lot depending on condition/size of the property. But I'm just trying to get a ball park so I know whether we can afford a brownstone on 1-income or 2-income. Sounds like it will most likely be a 2-income type of deal.


Once you find the property that interests you the realtor should be able to supply specifics not ball parks. Owners usually provide their heating bills, etc. My own take on how so many 30ish couples are paying the downpayment is the bank of M&D. Many 30 somethings are now 5th and 6th generation middle class. Money accumulates across generations.

Posted on: 2015/10/26 23:37
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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Sutherland wrote:
While I tend to suspect that we're in a real estate bubble, I have to say, I feel extraordinarily lucky that I bought my brownstone when I did 13 years ago. I certainly couldn't afford it today.

But with regard to the state of real estate, I just don't know how many families or individuals could afford $1.5mm for a brownstone and then to gut renovate it for anywhere between $300k to $500k.


Couple each making $200K+ year...it's doable. Plenty of people in the NYC area make that kind of $.


Even if you are making 400K+ as a couple, things can be tight, even without anything going wrong. People look at salaries like 200K per person and think it is a lot, but it really isn't all that much. In between federal and state income taxes, plus labor taxes like SS and Medicare, you are likely paying out close to 40% your income. Take out things like medical insurance costs, and 401K plan contributions, and you soon find yourself bringing home less than half of your salary, maybe close to 40%. If someone is looking at a brownstone, and they carry an 1.2 MM mortgage (assuming 1.5 MM with a 20% down) you are looking at a monthly payment of about 6K. Add full tax, particularly if/when the reval finally takes place, and you are looking at 30K in property taxes (~2,500/month) plus the 6K monthly mortgage payment, and whatever other responsibilities, and you soon realize that even at 400K/year, a 1.5 MM brownstone could be a bit of a stretch.

As I've said before, I think a surer bet is a new construction condo with a nice tax abatement. Your taxes are a known amount, for whatever period of time, and you are much less likely to run into surprise repairs that will cost you a bundle.


Totally agree. A couple making $400k should not be buying a $1.5M place (if they are relying on their salaries to support a 20% down mortgage). That's cutting it very close and doesn't seem financially responsible.

Posted on: 2015/10/26 20:59
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jcwalkingman wrote:
Well, at least one new building downtown has upped the ante and is now advertising two free months' rent. New construction studios in an amenity-rich building for under $2k/month. And there are still about 2,500 more apartments coming on the market in the next 4 months. Folks, we may very well be entering the rental market implosion (which is already hitting real estate investors who own rental condos downtown).


Which building is this?


Yes, please share. Also, is it an "advertised" deal, or something that was offered to you after much negotiation?

Posted on: 2015/10/26 20:34
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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jcwalkingman wrote:
Well, at least one new building downtown has upped the ante and is now advertising two free months' rent. New construction studios in an amenity-rich building for under $2k/month. And there are still about 2,500 more apartments coming on the market in the next 4 months. Folks, we may very well be entering the rental market implosion (which is already hitting real estate investors who own rental condos downtown).


Which building is this?

Posted on: 2015/10/26 19:24
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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Sutherland wrote:
While I tend to suspect that we're in a real estate bubble, I have to say, I feel extraordinarily lucky that I bought my brownstone when I did 13 years ago. I certainly couldn't afford it today.

But with regard to the state of real estate, I just don't know how many families or individuals could afford $1.5mm for a brownstone and then to gut renovate it for anywhere between $300k to $500k.


Couple each making $200K+ year...it's doable. Plenty of people in the NYC area make that kind of $.


Even if you are making 400K+ as a couple, things can be tight, even without anything going wrong. People look at salaries like 200K per person and think it is a lot, but it really isn't all that much. In between federal and state income taxes, plus labor taxes like SS and Medicare, you are likely paying out close to 40% your income. Take out things like medical insurance costs, and 401K plan contributions, and you soon find yourself bringing home less than half of your salary, maybe close to 40%. If someone is looking at a brownstone, and they carry an 1.2 MM mortgage (assuming 1.5 MM with a 20% down) you are looking at a monthly payment of about 6K. Add full tax, particularly if/when the reval finally takes place, and you are looking at 30K in property taxes (~2,500/month) plus the 6K monthly mortgage payment, and whatever other responsibilities, and you soon realize that even at 400K/year, a 1.5 MM brownstone could be a bit of a stretch.

As I've said before, I think a surer bet is a new construction condo with a nice tax abatement. Your taxes are a known amount, for whatever period of time, and you are much less likely to run into surprise repairs that will cost you a bundle.

Posted on: 2015/10/26 19:17
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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SRhia wrote:
I understand prices can vary a lot depending on condition/size of the property. But I'm just trying to get a ball park so I know whether we can afford a brownstone on 1-income or 2-income. Sounds like it will most likely be a 2-income type of deal.


Not trying to be dismissive, or disrespectful, but I feel this is one of those situations where "if you have to ask, you can't afford it".

Personally, I *like* the idea of owning a brownstone. All of it, all to myself. I appreciate the workmanship that went into so many of them (all the little details and such) but realize that buying such a place will require a lot of time, money, effort, and dedication. One is left to wonder if it would be a smart decision, or just a vanity proposition. Perhaps both.

Besides the initial HUGE investment (the few TRUE brownstones I have seen come onto the market seem to start at 1 MM, and up) I think it is not at all unreasonable to expect huge cooling and heating bills during Summer and Winter months. Imagine trying to control the temperature on such a large space! Most brownstones are about 3K square feet, some even exceed 4K. I am sure it can be really expensive. Another HUGE problem, as you presume, is the matter of insurance. After Irene and Sandy, flood insurance is an almost certain requirement in DTJC. That's also very costly.

Posted on: 2015/10/26 18:55
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I understand prices can vary a lot depending on condition/size of the property. But I'm just trying to get a ball park so I know whether we can afford a brownstone on 1-income or 2-income. Sounds like it will most likely be a 2-income type of deal.

Posted on: 2015/10/25 22:45
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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SRhia wrote:
For all your brownstones owners: in addition to property taxes, water/sewage, how much is the average cost per year for the following items for owning a brownstone?

- heating - I've seen numbers in the 3.5K - 4K per year?
- insurance - around 3K? Does this include flood insurance?
- average repair costs? Given brownstones are old buildings, how much should one budget for repairs every year (on average)?
- any other major expenses?

Just want to get an idea...


Heating - is that gas, oil or electric? How many cubic feet in the house and how many floors? How much insulation? How many windows, and are they single or double-pane glass? Is it a corner house or attached on both sides?

Insurance - Depends on house value. Replacement-cost coverage or fair market value coverage? Deductible? Flood insurance depends on location and the willingness of your lender. Many lenders in Downtown require it...

Repair costs - WIDE range! Depends on the current condition of the big items, like boiler(s), water heater(s), kitchen and laundry appliances, and the roof. As a rule of thumb, it usually costs more than you hope it will...

Others - depends a lot on how handy you are for DIY. If you need to call an electrician for something as simple as installing a new light switch, then you'd better have a bunch of disposable income...


Posted on: 2015/10/25 19:04
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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For all your brownstones owners: in addition to property taxes, water/sewage, how much is the average cost per year for the following items for owning a brownstone?

- heating - I've seen numbers in the 3.5K - 4K per year?
- insurance - around 3K? Does this include flood insurance?
- average repair costs? Given brownstones are old buildings, how much should one budget for repairs every year (on average)?
- any other major expenses?

Just want to get an idea...

Posted on: 2015/10/25 17:08
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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Well, at least one new building downtown has upped the ante and is now advertising two free months' rent. New construction studios in an amenity-rich building for under $2k/month. And there are still about 2,500 more apartments coming on the market in the next 4 months. Folks, we may very well be entering the rental market implosion (which is already hitting real estate investors who own rental condos downtown).

Posted on: 2015/10/25 17:01
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Sutherland wrote:
While I agree there are a substantial number of households with a combined family income of approximately $400,000. However, it's been my anecdotal observation that in most instances, it's one party earning the lion's share of that income, much of which is bonus or commission. If there's one little trip up, things could get a little tight.

But again, I'm thrilled the market is presently booming. Still, IMHO, we've had excessive development in JC, increasing density to excess.


I think the excessive development is on the rental side not the sales side. I asked a realtor why this is, he said there is less paperwork and less work having to work with state regulators.

Posted on: 2015/10/25 15:15
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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While I agree there are a substantial number of households with a combined family income of approximately $400,000. However, it's been my anecdotal observation that in most instances, it's one party earning the lion's share of that income, much of which is bonus or commission. If there's one little trip up, things could get a little tight.

But again, I'm thrilled the market is presently booming. Still, IMHO, we've had excessive development in JC, increasing density to excess. Quote:

BobNesta wrote:
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Sutherland wrote:
While I tend to suspect that we're in a real estate bubble, I have to say, I feel extraordinarily lucky that I bought my brownstone when I did 13 years ago. I certainly couldn't afford it today.

But with regard to the state of real estate, I just don't know how many families or individuals could afford $1.5mm for a brownstone and then to gut renovate it for anywhere between $300k to $500k.


Couple each making $200K+ year...it's doable. Plenty of people in the NYC area make that kind of $.

Posted on: 2015/10/25 14:50
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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Sutherland wrote:
While I tend to suspect that we're in a real estate bubble, I have to say, I feel extraordinarily lucky that I bought my brownstone when I did 13 years ago. I certainly couldn't afford it today.

But with regard to the state of real estate, I just don't know how many families or individuals could afford $1.5mm for a brownstone and then to gut renovate it for anywhere between $300k to $500k.


Couple each making $200K+ year...it's doable. Plenty of people in the NYC area make that kind of $.

Posted on: 2015/10/25 14:39
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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While I tend to suspect that we're in a real estate bubble, I have to say, I feel extraordinarily lucky that I bought my brownstone when I did 13 years ago. I certainly couldn't afford it today.

But with regard to the state of real estate, I just don't know how many families or individuals could afford $1.5mm for a brownstone and then to gut renovate it for anywhere between $300k to $500k.

Posted on: 2015/10/25 14:16
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jcguy05 wrote:
For the 5 years I rented out in a 15 year old higrise condo by the waterfront, my average total upkeep cost was less than $1000 a year. My math factored in 1 month of rent profit a year for upkeep cost.


I wasn't really trying to argue with you. Obviously, every situation is unique. And, I did notice the 11 (instead of 12) but wasn't sure if it was what you describe above, or a typo. Regardless, 5 years is a very short timespan upon to which to base calculations for total cost of ownership and renting out a place. At about 10 years of use, many washers and dryers will give up the ghost. The same is true of some water heaters. Some fridges will last about the same amount of time. All I'm saying is that it can get costly to maintain all those appliances and replace them every 10 - 12 years.

Posted on: 2015/10/25 6:50
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For the 5 years I rented out in a 15 year old higrise condo by the waterfront, my average total upkeep cost was less than $1000 a year. My math factored in 1 month of rent profit a year for upkeep cost.

Posted on: 2015/10/25 5:09
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SRhia wrote: Thank you @jcguy05 for the long reply! I'm curious though (and this is for all real estate investors): what is the advantage/disadvantage of cashing out? Assuming someone brought a property for investment (renting out) 5 years ago, and is currently breaking even (or making money) on rent. Why (or why not) would you cash out now? I can think of: Advantage: - cashing out to get cash on hand. - Cash can be available for next investment property when market crashes. Or cash available to make other investments (eg stocks, etc); - less to worry about (no tenants calling about problems!!!) Disadvantage (??? Or perhaps rather "reasons to keep it"???): - Tenant is already paying rent, so you're building equity. Why not keep it??? In 30 years (or length of mortgage), you'll own the property. And given it's a long time horizon, the property will appreciate in value by then anyway. - no need to go through the hassle of selling (probably not a legit reason So - did I miss something? Why are some others reasons to sell vs. keep an investment property knowing the market is going down? Trying to learn here (since looks like there're some pros here)
Disadvantage: Taxes, unless you can make a 1031 exchange work (which is not easy and you are then buying at the peak) you lose a good chunk of equity that is currently working for you.
THIS. By the time you factor out original closing costs, realtor fees, whatever other fees associated with selling, and all the federal real estate taxes, you may have VERY LITTLE to show for your investment unless the property has really appreciated A LOT. If you are talking about a 10% gain, you haven't made any money, really. True story: a friend of mine is about to clear 100K on an investment property (after owning it for 10 years) and his take on the whole experience is "NEVER AGAIN". Once you factor in all the associated costs and headaches from the past 10 years, along with costs I mentioned above, the "gain" is reduced to almost nothing. All these TV shows make it look like an easy thing to do, but the market can be tricky (and fickle) and unless you are flipping for huge immediate gain, your long term investment must really, really appreciate for it to be worthwhile or profitable.
You lose 10% the second you buy a property, like a new car. So yes need a lot more than 10%, the price appreciation in dtjc from low (2010) to the high (now) is 70-100%. The taxes are only on the net profit also, and for condos, there is not a lot you need to do or pay in term of upkeeps, it pretty much runs itself, especially in those waterfront highrises where you have quality tenants. So the numbers become easy to crunch: (price paid*1.1) / ((rent - condo fees - tax)*11). Usually anything <25 years is ok, provided the prices are reasonable (it is not right now). For multi-families, it's a lot more work and cost. But when i did the numbers you can get the return down to close to 15 years if you know what you doing in term of renovating old houses and all the **** that comes with - getting it certified, tenants, upkeep, etc.. It's more work for more reward, and you need to know a lot more.
Your math is overly simplified to the point of being useless. You leave out the costly aspect of regular maintenance. Even in new construction condos in luxury buildings, you will have the issue of appliances you OWN going bad, or dying. Things die or stop working, while others reach their useful life (think water tanks) and you also have the very basic and very real issue of wear and tear. Even a quality tenant will result on wear and tear to your unit. That's money you will need to spend every time there is a change of tenants.

Posted on: 2015/10/24 10:36
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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i saw went to an apt in brooklyn where occupants are paying ~$7,000 for a duplex that barely has a functional living room and two small bedrooms. one of the bedrooms can barely hold a full size bed. now that's insane...and the finishes looked furmulaic and cheap. and it was about 1 10-15 minute walk to the L train.

if jc real estate is in a bubble, what the heck is brooklyn in?


High rents are not an indicator of a bubble! A bubble is when the actual value of housing stock is rising persistently and away from its fundamental value. In fact, high rents are in direct contradiction of a bubble. Some economists would tell you that a "bubble" happens when an increase in housing prices is higher than the rise in rents. As such, high rents in BK are indicative that a bubble is not afoot over there. Over here, we have the opposite situation: a rapid rise in housing value without the corresponding rise in rents. We have seen properties double in value, but we haven't seen a correlated rise in rents. Yes, rents in DTJC have increased a lot, but they haven't doubled.

Posted on: 2015/10/24 4:14
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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i saw went to an apt in brooklyn where occupants are paying ~$7,000 for a duplex that barely has a functional living room and two small bedrooms. one of the bedrooms can barely hold a full size bed. now that's insane...and the finishes looked furmulaic and cheap. and it was about 1 10-15 minute walk to the L train.

if jc real estate is in a bubble, what the heck is brooklyn in?

Posted on: 2015/10/24 1:35

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You're the most bitter guy on JClist. Congrats.

Wait a minute! According to Dr. Bodhipooh, I'm the most bitter guy on JCList. I guess I have to up my game to hold on to my title...


Dude, I dont think I ever pronounced you the most bitter guy in all of JCList, but even you have to admit your previous posts have always come across as incredibly bitter. Perhaps with good reason, but still.

In any case, it seems you are now less focused on that stuff. Or, refrain from making those types of posts.

Posted on: 2015/10/23 21:53
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bunny22 wrote:
An attached one-family with parking on Summit near Lincoln just sold for $550,00. It's renovated but only 2 bedrooms and 1 1/2 baths and the backyard is more like a small courtyard not particularly pretty. That seems like a lot to me. But it's cool because I've been waiting over 12 years for the Heights to take off (the Riverview area--now an arts district is where I've holed up waiting and waiting for gentrification...and waiting...


Probably bought by some excited Brooklyner who had seen the equivalent in Bed-Sty for $2m.

Posted on: 2015/10/23 21:08
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An attached one-family with parking on Summit near Lincoln just sold for $550,00. It's renovated but only 2 bedrooms and 1 1/2 baths and the backyard is more like a small courtyard not particularly pretty. That seems like a lot to me. But it's cool because I've been waiting over 12 years for the Heights to take off (the Riverview area--now an arts district is where I've holed up waiting and waiting for gentrification...and waiting...

Posted on: 2015/10/23 21:02
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Wow, who says there's no bubble here!!! Even the shell of a building - literally - is asking $900,000 in JC: 261 5th str.

Between this and the Gannon, I'm not sure who is more ridiculous.


Asking doesn't mean it's a bubble. Sale prices do.

Posted on: 2015/10/23 20:44
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But wait wait wait everyone - wait!!! I have a real bridge to sell, and it's in Manhattan!!! Now give me all your cash!!!

Real bridge for sale!

Posted on: 2015/10/23 20:11
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SRhia wrote:
Wow, who says there's no bubble here!!! Even the shell of a building - literally - is asking $900,000 in JC: 261 5th str.

Between this and the Gannon, I'm not sure who is more ridiculous.


They can ask! That's a pretty small lot too, 20x60.

Posted on: 2015/10/23 19:49
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Wow, who says there's no bubble here!!! Even the shell of a building - literally - is asking $900,000 in JC: 261 5th str.

Between this and the Gannon, I'm not sure who is more ridiculous.

Posted on: 2015/10/23 19:31
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From Heights
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You're the most bitter guy on JClist. Congrats.

Wait a minute! According to Dr. Bodhipooh, I'm the most bitter guy on JCList. I guess I have to up my game to hold on to my title...

Posted on: 2015/10/23 18:40
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
Home away from home
Home away from home


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jcguy05 wrote:
I LOLed everytime i walk by the building or one of their signs. Lets see...low rise... with little amenities...not waterfront, or even a very well laid out area. Asking for how much?

But i bet they will manage to sell them to some fools at the price they are asking lol


The layouts are poor, if you are asking $1.4 M there should not be any windowless rooms, AKA Dens which really are big walk in closets. The long narrow livingrooms are another minus.

Posted on: 2015/10/23 17:52
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
Home away from home
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From Hamilton Park
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SRhia wrote:
Thank you @jcguy05 for the long reply!

I'm curious though (and this is for all real estate investors): what is the advantage/disadvantage of cashing out? Assuming someone brought a property for investment (renting out) 5 years ago, and is currently breaking even (or making money) on rent. Why (or why not) would you cash out now? I can think of:

Advantage:
- cashing out to get cash on hand.
- Cash can be available for next investment property when market crashes. Or cash available to make other investments (eg stocks, etc);
- less to worry about (no tenants calling about problems!!!)

Disadvantage (??? Or perhaps rather "reasons to keep it"???):
- Tenant is already paying rent, so you're building equity. Why not keep it??? In 30 years (or length of mortgage), you'll own the property. And given it's a long time horizon, the property will appreciate in value by then anyway.
- no need to go through the hassle of selling (probably not a legit reason

So - did I miss something? Why are some others reasons to sell vs. keep an investment property knowing the market is going down?

Trying to learn here (since looks like there're some pros here)


My stock speech supporting "buy and hold rental" is this:

The main difference between rental RE and any other form of investing for us mere mortals who aren't hedge funders is that this is the only market we can take serious advantage of borrowing leverage. If you buy a rental with 25% down on a 15 year note that pays all it's expenses and mortgage the whole time, and nothing more, at the end of the mortgage you've made 9.4% on your 25% down. That's considered great in most investments over that long. Had you bought a stock that didn't go up with that down payment, at the end of that time you'd have lost a significant chunk to inflation. Now consider that rents usually go up over 15 years, as do values. Even if you have no cashflow at the start of the mortgage you likely will by the end.

Of course true RE players keep their equity leveraged to the max, always acquiring property. But that's how you end up underwater and in trouble too, like several sellers we dealt with in 2012.

Posted on: 2015/10/23 16:07
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