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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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At long last, Yvonne and the NAs will get their wish - a city devoid of bars, restaurants and any signs of urban life. The VNA and HCNA won't have to worry about fighting businesses and sidewalk cafes for years, as they're no longer going to exist and after the current crop of anything that's broken ground finishes, they won't have to worry about any new developments for years.

Posted on: 4/21 22:45
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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Frinjc wrote:
Yup, and when people factor the 47% increase in their school taxes they may go see the light elsewhere - I believe that between this and the impact of covid on property value, we will hit the 2+% tax rate that people have been using as a "fairness" benchmark. I expect to appeal next year...


It might take longer than that for sales to reflect the new reality and then those comps can be used to generate new assessments. Property repricing downward moves at a glacial pace as only those who MUST sell do so, everyone else is waiting it out, hoping for recovery.

Posted on: 4/21 18:11
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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Yup, and when people factor the 47% increase in their school taxes they may go see the light elsewhere - I believe that between this and the impact of covid on property value, we will hit the 2+% tax rate that people have been using as a "fairness" benchmark. I expect to appeal next year...

Posted on: 4/21 13:15
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Re: The Pandemic
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RichMauro wrote:
Well,
since we're off the thread topic anyway, here's an interesting slant:

https://drop.space/watch/gravitas-wuha ... reak_4vpPz5FIotq799o.html


Sorry Rich, but worrying about being a little off topic when the site only has one active thread seems silly.

On topic: Today's Times had an article about the OP subject. What bothers me is the way they treat the high cost of cities as a fact of nature rather than an artifact of their desirability. They ignore feedback loops, like the notion that if less people are willing to compete for urban homes the prices will drop to a sustainable level as the market sets a new price. Unsustainable trends tend not to be sustained.

Posted on: 4/20 18:35
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Re: The Pandemic
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Well,
since we're off the thread topic anyway, here's an interesting slant:

https://drop.space/watch/gravitas-wuha ... reak_4vpPz5FIotq799o.html

Posted on: 4/18 23:27
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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TheBigGuy wrote:
You are funny... that is what risk management, emergency preparation and root cause analysis is all about. Of course the expectation is that all parties are open to process improvement and resilience. I do not get that sense of cooperation from the benevolent Chinese government hence my more nefarious view of their behavior... here are some fun facts to mull over in your self-isolation:

Around 2005 in response to SARS, WHO issued pandemic response protocol to integrate governments and businesses into a uniformed response; that all came crashing down when the swine flu hit Mexico. certain escalation triggers between the linear protocol phases failed. WHO released the new Pandemic Continuum Phases which is cyclical. Staying away from politics, a lesson learned from this is that WHO ignored their own phase escalation criteria and finally declared a pandemic in March, despite the obvious evidence acting globally. Most public/private sector pandemic plans had that WHO pandemic declaration as a trigger.

A critical risk to the WFH contingency was whether the ISPs could manage the additional network volume. Those companies should be commended... after 5 weeks at home, I have seen very little degradation in my service. Companies tested this with internal WFH requirements... but the risk was what happens when schools close and other companies activate?

A lot of media consternation about PPE stockpiles. They cost money to maintain and many of the products have a shelf life. In 2005 the Health and Safety SMEs provided recommended PPE list to their clients. Our Purchasing Team reported back there were 3 - 4 month backorders on regular and N95 masks. All the major companies and public sector were buying. Ventilators brought then are obsolete now, like most technology.

We spent $3M preparing on PPE alone. 4 years later, refreshing our supply, we could not find any public health agency that would take masks sitting unused after 4 years. They technically became a biohazard as we contacted companies to remove them... then with economic conditions at the time, restocking was not a consideration.

So yes... watching this all unfold is interesting. We never did foresee the level political and media grandstanding. But it is a joy listening to the armchair experts. Stay Safe and Isolate!


All very fascinating, but none of it explains why you would believe a ridiculous conspiracy theory about a Chinese lab just because the Chinese did as they have always done and initially tried to 'save face".

Posted on: 4/18 19:46
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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Yes. The original issue is the economic impact this will have and how it will effect the JC and urban real estate market. Interesting and not at all unrelated, Seton Hall University published a study that 72% of US citizens will not go to sporting events until there is a vaccine. I think that evidences how people are going to respond to this in other areas. Quote:

RichMauro wrote:
Might we get back on topic?

Posted on: 4/18 17:39
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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Might we get back on topic?

Posted on: 4/18 12:26
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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brewster wrote:
Quote:

TheBigGuy wrote:
You really are a dope... this is my professional risk management background and I have seen this coming for 20 years. I worked alongside seasoned professionals for a Fortune 10 company with a prominent presence in Latin America, MEA and Asia. Supporting the company and employees, we responded to SARS, Fukishima, Swine Flu in Mexico, MERS and Ebola.

A year ago I designed and facilitated a TTX for NYC Operations using a planning scenario based on the measles epidemic in Brooklyn. I am currently active in a corporate ICS framework responding to this incident in a WFH scenario as planned.

The professional planners are not surprised. In 2005 modelling mortality rates for NYC using data from SARS and 1918, we knew there were not enough ICU beds or ventilators and working with NYC Public / OEM, they knew catastrophe was looming just managing the bodies. You think these refrigerated city trucks just appeared out of the clear blue?

Your political nonsense is boring...


Lemme get this right, you claim all this professional risk management background and that of course you saw this coming, but then get behind a ridiculous chinese lab theory? Who's a dope?



You are funny... that is what risk management, emergency preparation and root cause analysis is all about. Of course the expectation is that all parties are open to process improvement and resilience. I do not get that sense of cooperation from the benevolent Chinese government hence my more nefarious view of their behavior... here are some fun facts to mull over in your self-isolation:

Around 2005 in response to SARS, WHO issued pandemic response protocol to integrate governments and businesses into a uniformed response; that all came crashing down when the swine flu hit Mexico. certain escalation triggers between the linear protocol phases failed. WHO released the new Pandemic Continuum Phases which is cyclical. Staying away from politics, a lesson learned from this is that WHO ignored their own phase escalation criteria and finally declared a pandemic in March, despite the obvious evidence acting globally. Most public/private sector pandemic plans had that WHO pandemic declaration as a trigger.

A critical risk to the WFH contingency was whether the ISPs could manage the additional network volume. Those companies should be commended... after 5 weeks at home, I have seen very little degradation in my service. Companies tested this with internal WFH requirements... but the risk was what happens when schools close and other companies activate?

A lot of media consternation about PPE stockpiles. They cost money to maintain and many of the products have a shelf life. In 2005 the Health and Safety SMEs provided recommended PPE list to their clients. Our Purchasing Team reported back there were 3 - 4 month backorders on regular and N95 masks. All the major companies and public sector were buying. Ventilators brought then are obsolete now, like most technology.

We spent $3M preparing on PPE alone. 4 years later, refreshing our supply, we could not find any public health agency that would take masks sitting unused after 4 years. They technically became a biohazard as we contacted companies to remove them... then with economic conditions at the time, restocking was not a consideration.

So yes... watching this all unfold is interesting. We never did foresee the level political and media grandstanding. But it is a joy listening to the armchair experts. Stay Safe and Isolate!

Posted on: 4/18 11:48
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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TheBigGuy wrote:
You really are a dope... this is my professional risk management background and I have seen this coming for 20 years. I worked alongside seasoned professionals for a Fortune 10 company with a prominent presence in Latin America, MEA and Asia. Supporting the company and employees, we responded to SARS, Fukishima, Swine Flu in Mexico, MERS and Ebola.

A year ago I designed and facilitated a TTX for NYC Operations using a planning scenario based on the measles epidemic in Brooklyn. I am currently active in a corporate ICS framework responding to this incident in a WFH scenario as planned.

The professional planners are not surprised. In 2005 modelling mortality rates for NYC using data from SARS and 1918, we knew there were not enough ICU beds or ventilators and working with NYC Public / OEM, they knew catastrophe was looming just managing the bodies. You think these refrigerated city trucks just appeared out of the clear blue?

Your political nonsense is boring...


Lemme get this right, you claim all this professional risk management background and that of course you saw this coming, but then get behind a ridiculous chinese lab theory? Who's a dope?

Posted on: 4/18 3:31
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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You really are a dope... this is my professional risk management background and I have seen this coming for 20 years. I worked alongside seasoned professionals for a Fortune 10 company with a prominent presence in Latin America, MEA and Asia. Supporting the company and employees, we responded to SARS, Fukishima, Swine Flu in Mexico, MERS and Ebola.

A year ago I designed and facilitated a TTX for NYC Operations using a planning scenario based on the measles epidemic in Brooklyn. I am currently active in a corporate ICS framework responding to this incident in a WFH scenario as planned.

The professional planners are not surprised. In 2005 modelling mortality rates for NYC using data from SARS and 1918, we knew there were not enough ICU beds or ventilators and working with NYC Public / OEM, they knew catastrophe was looming just managing the bodies. You think these refrigerated city trucks just appeared out of the clear blue?

Your political nonsense is boring...

Quote:

brewster wrote:
Your lack of cognitive ability is at least consistent. Pissing on your ridiculous conspiracy theories is not defending China's lack of openness or freedom in any respect.

What you're doing is insulting and denigrating science itself, consistent with your GOP brethren. Everyone from virologists and epidemiologists to Bill Gates has been warning this was coming for years. But when it comes, idiots like you need to be comforted by conspiracy theories because "no one saw this coming".

Quote:

TheBigGuy wrote:
LOL.... after the way the Chinese government behaved in this incident do you really believe their medical research is for the betterment of humanity? You must be very proud of how North Korea has had zero deaths.

There was a reason the Chinese government bounced the US media. And there is a reason they are publicly trying to deflect this on the US and the country's African population. They would blame it on the Uighers except they are all in concentration camps. You people defending China are amazingly stupid and dangerously naive.






Quote:

brewster wrote:
Quote:

TheBigGuy wrote:
The Chinese government can deny all it wants... but their research was about bio-weaponizing viruses and this was a lab experiment that backfired. Like a rocket blowing up on a launchpad.


Yeah, except that actual virus scientists have been warning about corona virus transfers from the wild to humans for decades. They've seen close relatives of Covid 19 in the wild, and SARS was a such a close relative that some virologists call this SARS 2. But be a moron believing conspiracy theories, it suits you.

Posted on: 4/18 1:39
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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Would love too.., though I am afraid it will take a little longer at least until we get a vaccine. I am optimist though, looking at the virus make-up and evolution, as well as the current approaches that whatever is found will provide at least partial immunity for the time being, once rolled out.

I am not optimist for Brewster winning the debate on the origin of this virus though. It is a cognitive reality that many people will prefer the predictibility of the herd to uncertainty, in addition to getting synaptic reinforcement for their beliefs each time the conspiracy is recalled. After a friend of mine repeatedly asked me to watch the series Homeland to confirm her beliefs, I decided not to debate science or even basic math with her and non scientists. You are right though Brewster, one can go back for ex to April of last year to find publications warning of what was yet to come based on coronavirus make up in species.

Going back to the title and the impact of this crisis on our local market I tend to agree with Sutherland. It goes back to predictability again, and once people start seing the impact of the fiscal crisis on their taxes, the disappearance of local businesses, and the lingering health risks, they may decide that they can practice safer distancing in the suburbs. We shall see whether we are wrong on that.

Posted on: 4/18 0:49
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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Let's go to the Winchester, have a nice cold pint, and wait for this all to blow over.

Posted on: 4/17 23:20
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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Your lack of cognitive ability is at least consistent. Pissing on your ridiculous conspiracy theories is not defending China's lack of openness or freedom in any respect.

What you're doing is insulting and denigrating science itself, consistent with your GOP brethren. Everyone from virologists and epidemiologists to Bill Gates has been warning this was coming for years. But when it comes, idiots like you need to be comforted by conspiracy theories because "no one saw this coming".

Quote:

TheBigGuy wrote:
LOL.... after the way the Chinese government behaved in this incident do you really believe their medical research is for the betterment of humanity? You must be very proud of how North Korea has had zero deaths.

There was a reason the Chinese government bounced the US media. And there is a reason they are publicly trying to deflect this on the US and the country's African population. They would blame it on the Uighers except they are all in concentration camps. You people defending China are amazingly stupid and dangerously naive.






Quote:

brewster wrote:
Quote:

TheBigGuy wrote:
The Chinese government can deny all it wants... but their research was about bio-weaponizing viruses and this was a lab experiment that backfired. Like a rocket blowing up on a launchpad.


Yeah, except that actual virus scientists have been warning about corona virus transfers from the wild to humans for decades. They've seen close relatives of Covid 19 in the wild, and SARS was a such a close relative that some virologists call this SARS 2. But be a moron believing conspiracy theories, it suits you.

Posted on: 4/17 21:44
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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LOL.... after the way the Chinese government behaved in this incident do you really believe their medical research is for the betterment of humanity? You must be very proud of how North Korea has had zero deaths.

There was a reason the Chinese government bounced the US media. And there is a reason they are publicly trying to deflect this on the US and the country's African population. They would blame it on the Uighers except they are all in concentration camps. You people defending China are amazingly stupid and dangerously naive.






Quote:

brewster wrote:
Quote:

TheBigGuy wrote:
The Chinese government can deny all it wants... but their research was about bio-weaponizing viruses and this was a lab experiment that backfired. Like a rocket blowing up on a launchpad.


Yeah, except that actual virus scientists have been warning about corona virus transfers from the wild to humans for decades. They've seen close relatives of Covid 19 in the wild, and SARS was a such a close relative that some virologists call this SARS 2. But be a moron believing conspiracy theories, it suits you.

Posted on: 4/17 21:23
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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TheBigGuy wrote:
The Chinese government can deny all it wants... but their research was about bio-weaponizing viruses and this was a lab experiment that backfired. Like a rocket blowing up on a launchpad.


Yeah, except that actual virus scientists have been warning about corona virus transfers from the wild to humans for decades. They've seen close relatives of Covid 19 in the wild, and SARS was a such a close relative that some virologists call this SARS 2. But be a moron believing conspiracy theories, it suits you.

Posted on: 4/17 16:02
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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Well, that's why we have yearly vaccinations. Why would you think it won't apply for Covid-19 and so on? Vaccinations help bolster immunity so that's the hope anyway.

"The Chinese government can deny all it wants..." Well you're right about that. They have a right to deny any allegation without evidence. At least that how our system works, right?

Posted on: 4/16 18:30
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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The vaccine is only good for this virus strain.Typically the "seasonal" flu shot is good for only specific strains in October... by March/April of the following year, the virus has mutated and eventually burns out. This is about immunity systems and effective epidemic/pandemic control protocols.

The Chinese government can deny all it wants... but their research was about bio-weaponizing viruses and this was a lab experiment that backfired. Like a rocket blowing up on a launchpad. Now that the bad actors have reliable data, this changes everything and that is the new norm. That means large companies leaving NYC area and employees working remotely where possible.


Quote:

drifterx wrote:
Even 9/11 had lasting impacts on RE. People moved out of Manhattan near the buildings. Chinatown is shell of its former self as many of the businesses moved to Queens.

This is a whole new level. The key is the vaccine. Without it, you can kiss normal goodbye.

Posted on: 4/16 18:16
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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Of course only time will tell. But I think a lot of people or at least some will just want to live in less dense areas. Some will suffer long term hits to their income, forcing them to sell or go into foreclosure. After after the social distance rules are lifted, some people won't rush to be in crowded or semi crowded venues, like restaurants, bars, sporting arenas, malls, office buildings, gyms, beaches. I have to suspect all of this will have a lingering effect on the economy and the real estate market. I've been wrong before. But in this instance I would be surprised if there's a quick bounce back.

Posted on: 4/16 17:33
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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Even 9/11 had lasting impacts on RE. People moved out of Manhattan near the buildings. Chinatown is shell of its former self as many of the businesses moved to Queens.

This is a whole new level. The key is the vaccine. Without it, you can kiss normal goodbye.

Posted on: 4/16 17:26
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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I think one big difference between this and 9/11 is that after 9/11, people went back to work in NYC after a few days and the rest of the country was still working. People haven't been working in earnest in NYC or the area in at last three weeks. It's not likely that people will be returning to real work for at least 4 months and probably longer. There are other factors as well that will be at play.

Posted on: 4/16 13:07
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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Quote:

Bike_Lane wrote:
*shrug*

The RE market in the NYC metro was declared dead after 9/11. And then after the recession. And again now.

I'm sure there will be a downturn in the market for the next year or two or three, but like always, it'll bounce back and then some.


Have to agree. While the NYC metro area/major cities will take a big hit, the suburbs won't be immune.

Job losses will hit across all geographic areas and income levels, this will push prices down, but the big cities will lead the recovery back, however long it takes.

Posted on: 4/16 2:57
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Re: The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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*shrug*

The RE market in the NYC metro was declared dead after 9/11. And then after the recession. And again now.

I'm sure there will be a downturn in the market for the next year or two or three, but like always, it'll bounce back and then some.

Posted on: 4/16 1:34
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The Pandemic's effect on the Jersey City and overall Urban Real Estate Market
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In the last several years, buyers have spent top dollar on purchasing older Jersey homes, and then poured as much as $600,000 on renovations. At the same time, developers have been building condo buildings with shiny new two bedroom condos, the market for which has already been sagging. Under the pressure of the pandemic, it's likely a lot of people will leave urban areas, many people will either lose jobs, or suffer direct pay cuts, reductions in bonuses or commissions, making meeting mortgage payments a significant challenge if not impossible. Developers will have to meet the call of the banks. The likelihood of a 30% drop in real estate market values is great. In this instance, the fall won't take long. As a homeowner, I take absolutely no joy in this. Unfortunately, it's a harsh reality. The impact of this is going to have a significant effect on our local economy and the larger economy. Still new opportunities will abound. However, I believe the urban real estate market is going to take an immediate hit. Only time will tell. But from an economic stand point, I believe this will be very much like the 70s.

Posted on: 4/16 1:15
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