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Re: Coronavirus is now in Hudson County
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Taped four years ago:

https://youtu.be/6Af6b_wyiwI

Posted on: 3/23 12:50
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Re: Coronavirus is now in Hudson County
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https://www.theguardian.com/environmen ... ponsible-for-covid-19-aoe


I was talking to my friend last night who just finished her undergrad in anthropology and international politics. In an exercise of sharing conspiracy theories of the Corona virus, she suggested the Gaia hypothesis - are you familiar with it? It was developed in the 1970s by a chemist and microbiologist. In short, it suggests that organisms co-evolve with their environment and Earth may be considered a single organism. So humans create the man-made stuff (cars, factories, planes, and so on) which directly impact the chemicals and gases in our atmosphere which directly effect our water, light, radiation, temperature, soil. Then those impact our natural world (plants, animals) over time.


That being considered, viruses like Ebola or Sars or most recently, COVID-19, can be considered Mother Nature fighting back. Confining us to our homes, shifting the way we work over night, shutting down harmful manufacturing plants, lifting smog from entire cities, bringing tourism to a grinding halt, clearing up traffic jams on every continent....all so Mother Nature can take a breath of fresh, clean air and show the world how harmful our daily, normal activities are to her health. As drastic as the measures now being taken by governments all over the world may seem, she knew a deadly virus would be the only way to get the kind of attention needed to address human ignorance. The deaths caused by COVID-19 or any other virus actually, is the Earth's immune system trying to clean itself. To add a layer of satire, Mother Nature transmits the virus through the animals we are killing to feed people. Overpopulation is the biggest threat to our world after all. For example, sustaining a food supply for billions of people poses an enormous threat to the atmosphere and ultimately, the livability of the Earth.

Posted on: 3/23 12:41
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Re: Coronavirus is now in Hudson County
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jerseymom wrote:
Okay, poll question for the day:
What do you miss most since moving to Coronaville?
Me?
1. Walking without abject fear of contamination.
2. Gino's pizza.
You? Begin.


Seriously, "abject fear"? Get a grip woman. Your odd of getting hit by a crappy JC driver while on a stroll on a given normal day are probably higher than catching Covid while walking outdoors, never mind dying from it.

I miss just sitting down at a local eatery for lunch.

Posted on: 3/22 22:06
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Re: Coronavirus is now in Hudson County
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Okay, poll question for the day:

What do you miss most since moving to Coronaville?

Me?

1. Walking without abject fear of contamination.

2. Gino's pizza.

You? Begin.

Posted on: 3/22 17:33
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Re: Coronavirus is now in Hudson County
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Yvonne wrote:
Quote:

robotdisko wrote:
Quote:

Yvonne wrote:
What is in that medical journal is what schools receive all the time in NYC. My principal would display NYC health department notices all the time where the teachers picked up their mail. I have been reading about this for years. People with immune problems are the ones at risk, but who cares about them? It is more important that the left push open the borders for potential voters down the road.


you love being an idiot, carry on!


No, I love showing the hypocrisy of people like you.


you don't know anything about me. so your statement shows how empty your head is.

carry on. we all need a clown to entertain us

Posted on: 3/22 0:40
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Re: Coronavirus is now in Hudson County
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This is the easy part. With the aftermath will come the real pain!

Posted on: 3/22 0:23
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Re: Coronavirus is now in Hudson County
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MDM wrote:
A dissenting opinion on Covid (just for FYI):

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/e ... ria-covid-19-1b767def5894


Excerpt:

The results of their research show that COVID-19 doesn’t spread as easily as we first thought or the media had us believe (remember people abandoned their dogs out of fear of getting infected). According to their report if you come in contact with someone who tests positive for COVID-19 you have a 1–5% chance of catching it as well. The variability is large because the infection is based on the type of contact and how long.

The majority of viral infections come from prolonged exposures in confined spaces with other infected individuals. Person-to-person and surface contact is by far the most common cause. From the WHO report, “When a cluster of several infected people occurred in China, it was most often (78–85%) caused by an infection within the family by droplets and other carriers of infection in close contact with an infected person.



Another one from Richard Epstein of the Hoover Institute:

Podcast

https://www.hoover.org/research/coronavirus-isnt-pandemic


It is what it is. The fact that so many caregivers who were taking reasonable precautions have caught it shows to me that it's contagious enough to warrant the current situation. I personally don't want to roll a 20 sided die with every contact on whether I end up on a ventilator.

Posted on: 3/21 22:45
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Re: Coronavirus is now in Hudson County
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robotdisko wrote:
Quote:

Yvonne wrote:
What is in that medical journal is what schools receive all the time in NYC. My principal would display NYC health department notices all the time where the teachers picked up their mail. I have been reading about this for years. People with immune problems are the ones at risk, but who cares about them? It is more important that the left push open the borders for potential voters down the road.


you love being an idiot, carry on!


No, I love showing the hypocrisy of people like you.

Posted on: 3/21 20:58
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Re: Coronavirus is now in Hudson County
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A dissenting opinion on Covid (just for FYI):

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/e ... ria-covid-19-1b767def5894


Excerpt:

The results of their research show that COVID-19 doesn’t spread as easily as we first thought or the media had us believe (remember people abandoned their dogs out of fear of getting infected). According to their report if you come in contact with someone who tests positive for COVID-19 you have a 1–5% chance of catching it as well. The variability is large because the infection is based on the type of contact and how long.

The majority of viral infections come from prolonged exposures in confined spaces with other infected individuals. Person-to-person and surface contact is by far the most common cause. From the WHO report, “When a cluster of several infected people occurred in China, it was most often (78–85%) caused by an infection within the family by droplets and other carriers of infection in close contact with an infected person.



Another one from Richard Epstein of the Hoover Institute:

Podcast

https://www.hoover.org/research/coronavirus-isnt-pandemic

Posted on: 3/21 20:39
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Re: Coronavirus is now in Hudson County
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Yvonne wrote:
What is in that medical journal is what schools receive all the time in NYC. My principal would display NYC health department notices all the time where the teachers picked up their mail. I have been reading about this for years. People with immune problems are the ones at risk, but who cares about them? It is more important that the left push open the borders for potential voters down the road.


you love being an idiot, carry on!

Posted on: 3/21 18:20
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Re: Coronavirus is now in Hudson County
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More info on infection rates based on genetics, hormones, health....



https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202003.0191/v1




Abstract:

The COVID19 coronavirus SARS-CoV2 spreading in Wuhan and now worldwide has been shown to use angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 ACE2 as its host cell receptor, like the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV). Epidemiology studies found different sex and age groups have different susceptibility to infection, and very skewed severity and mortality of the virus infection, with male, old age, and comorbidity being the most inflicted. Here by analyzing GTEx and other public data in 30 tissues across thousands of individuals, we found significantly higher expression in Asian females compared to males and other ethnic groups, an age dependent ACE2 expression decrease and a highly significant decrease in type II diabetic patients. Consistently, the most significant expression quantitative loci (eQTLs) contributing to high ACE2 expression are close to 100% in East Asians, >30% higher than other ethnic groups. Together with the shockingly common enrichment of viral infection pathways among ACE2 anti-expressed genes, binding of virus infection-related transcription factors at ACE2 regulatory regions, the repression of ACE2 expression by inflammatory cytokines and by type 2 diabetes, and the induction by estrogen and androgen (both decrease with age) established a negative correlation between ACE2 expression and CovID19 fatality at both population and molecular levels. Our results will be instrumental when designing potential prevention and treatment strategies for ACE2 binding coronaviruses in general.

Posted on: 3/20 18:25
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Re: Coronavirus is now in Hudson County
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.
JCParking@JCParking (3/20/2020 twitter)

UPDATE: Parking regulations are suspended until further notice. That means street cleaning, residential zone parking, and meter rules will not be enforced during the current COVID-19 health emergency.

**

About the sound of silence. I will never forget the days after 9/11 and how still everything was. I always describe it as going outside right after a blizzard. No sound no movement. After 9/11 the only very appreciated sounds were from the F-16’s that circled NYC 24/7 for a few days protecting us from further harm.


.

Posted on: 3/20 17:37

Edited by neverleft on 2020/3/20 17:56:05
Edited by neverleft on 2020/3/20 17:57:07
Edited by neverleft on 2020/3/20 17:58:04
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Re: Coronavirus is now in Hudson County
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Same. I'm sitting on my patio right now, and I hear birds and breeze, and almost none of the typical traffic, helicopters, daytime drunkards' shenanigans, etc. that I usually hear.

Posted on: 3/20 16:55
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Re: Coronavirus is now in Hudson County
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You know what's weird, I never realized how noisy my neighborhood was until it got very, very quiet over the last few days. It's not my neighbors - it's a total reduction of car, bus, plane and helicopter traffic that's my usual soundtrack all day long. It hit me yesterday when I took a moment to sit still for a minute. I don't think I've heard this level of quiet since I lived upstate.

Posted on: 3/20 15:55
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Re: Coronavirus is now in Hudson County
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What is in that medical journal is what schools receive all the time in NYC. My principal would display NYC health department notices all the time where the teachers picked up their mail. I have been reading about this for years. People with immune problems are the ones at risk, but who cares about them? It is more important that the left push open the borders for potential voters down the road.

Posted on: 3/20 15:23
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Re: Coronavirus is now in Hudson County
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What a disgraceful misuse of a legitimate medical journal.

Posted on: 3/20 1:34
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Re: Coronavirus is now in Hudson County
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An example of what migrants bring when they cross the border: TB, syphilis, measles, leprosy, and a changing list of current threats such as polio, cholera, diphtheria, smallpox, or severe acute respiratory syndromes.
https://sma.org/illegal-immigration-an ... at-of-infectious-disease/

Posted on: 3/20 0:20
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Re: Coronavirus is now in Hudson County
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MDM wrote:
Quote:

brewster wrote:


My favorite economic sideshow is how this is going to affect the shale plays. I've been hearing for years none of it was ever actually profitable, that it was all basically a debt fueled Ponzi scheme. So while right now energy prices are in freefall, the recovery may be with no fracking and virtual banking subsidy of energy prices. Great for alternative energy in the long run, but no the short.

WTF has happened to American Capitalism? Milton Friedman basically destroyed it. We've become of nation of grasshoppers, having no idea how to save for a rainy day on an institutional level.


Fracking: Yes and no. Gas is for the most part barely or unprofitable. About 35% to 40% of all the gas pulled out of the ground in the USA is burned off as a waste product (comes up with the oil). Gas just got too cheap and will probably stay that way for years.

Oil is for many producers profitable. The Saudis already tried to kill the US domestic drillers back in 2016 and failed. The Saudis dropping the price of oil ended up accelerating the pace of innovation. New wells now are approaching break even cost to that of Saudi Arabia itself.

As for WTF happened: Private profits / socialized costs. There is a disincentive to be fiscally prudent when the government bails you out (i.e. Citibank) and an incentive to boost stock price artificially (bonuses , paying compensation in stock or stock options). You have to get rid of the former (my preference.. I prefer "the stupid will be punished" approach) or heavily regulate / ban the latter.


What I've heard is the production falloff on shale wells is so much faster than traditional that the capital is not recaptured. But like the subprime mess, there's so much smoke and mirrors on the books that money keeps flowing in like a Ponzi.

I don't recall if I've linked this here yet or not, but one of my favorite podcasts of all time is 2 Libertarian economists arguing over whether Big Capitalism is inevitably corrupt and rent seeking, and they found they could find no way way out. There's always a point where the next dollar spent is more profitable buying influence, protection and subsidy than investing in the business. You know I believe in capitalism, it's central to the rental RE game, but our Capitalists don't seem to.

https://www.econtalk.org/michael-munger-on-crony-capitalism/

Posted on: 3/19 22:35
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Re: Coronavirus is now in Hudson County
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(I posted this before, but I think it bears repeating as we see more cases here:)

Diarrhea and other digestive symptoms are the main complaint in nearly half of coronavirus patients, Chinese researchers report. Most patients with the coronavirus have respiratory symptoms, but these findings from the early stages of the outbreak show that digestive problems are prevalent in many patients with COVID-19.

"Clinicians must bear in mind that digestive symptoms, such as diarrhea, may be a presenting feature of COVID-19, and that the index of suspicion may need to be raised earlier in these cases rather than waiting for respiratory symptoms to emerge," wrote the investigators from the Wuhan Medical Treatment Expert Group for COVID-19.

The researchers analyzed data from 204 COVID-19 patients, average age nearly 55, who were admitted to three hospitals in the Hubei province between Jan. 18 and Feb. 28, 2020. The average time from symptom onset to hospital admission was 8.1 days.

More

Posted on: 3/19 21:20
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Re: Coronavirus is now in Hudson County
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brewster wrote:


My favorite economic sideshow is how this is going to affect the shale plays. I've been hearing for years none of it was ever actually profitable, that it was all basically a debt fueled Ponzi scheme. So while right now energy prices are in freefall, the recovery may be with no fracking and virtual banking subsidy of energy prices. Great for alternative energy in the long run, but no the short.

WTF has happened to American Capitalism? Milton Friedman basically destroyed it. We've become of nation of grasshoppers, having no idea how to save for a rainy day on an institutional level.


Fracking: Yes and no. Gas is for the most part barely or unprofitable. About 35% to 40% of all the gas pulled out of the ground in the USA is burned off as a waste product (comes up with the oil). Gas just got too cheap and will probably stay that way for years.

Oil is for many producers profitable. The Saudis already tried to kill the US domestic drillers back in 2016 and failed. The Saudis dropping the price of oil ended up accelerating the pace of innovation. New wells now are approaching break even cost to that of Saudi Arabia itself.

As for WTF happened: Private profits / socialized costs. There is a disincentive to be fiscally prudent when the government bails you out (i.e. Citibank) and an incentive to boost stock price artificially (bonuses , paying compensation in stock or stock options). You have to get rid of the former (my preference.. I prefer "the stupid will be punished" approach) or heavily regulate / ban the latter.

Posted on: 3/19 20:53
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Re: Coronavirus is now in Hudson County
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brewster wrote:


If we're going to pick about numbers, lets start with the absurdity of those "mortality rates".


Late January I was incensed of the "it's just the flu" response to talk of shutting down travel from China and other countries early affected by it. I we-worked my schedule to travel as little as possible a month ago (my wife is in the 'at risk' group) to not be a vector for getting people at home sick.

I still think it is worse than the flu, based on the mortality figures, which for my age group and younger is about 100% more than the typical flu. It is double a very small number though.

Now we have gone into the over-reaction zone. Wouldn't it be more prudent at this point to isolate the 'at risk' people (diabetics, elderly, severely overweight, people on immune suppressants) instead of shutting down the whole damn country?

Posted on: 3/19 20:44
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Re: Coronavirus is now in Hudson County
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Read an update from the guy working an ER in Miami. The key points:

Traffic is way down. The number of people who come in with minor issues has evaporated. New cases of people with Covid symptoms is also way down. He surmised the people with mild cases are just staying home.

Their intensive care units are full, but the overflow tent setup at the hospital remains empty.

Posted on: 3/19 20:39
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Re: Coronavirus is now in Hudson County
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bodhipooh wrote:
Now, imagine we were experiencing a mortality rate like that of Spain (5%) or Italy (8%)


If we're going to pick about numbers, lets start with the absurdity of those "mortality rates". The infection rates used are mostly for confirmed cases. Tested cases. In a situation where there's been nowhere near the kind of testing to get reliable numbers.

Most epidemiologists say there's something north of 4 unreported subclinical/subcritical cases for every confirmed. So if you took the number around for a while of 2.5%, in reality it's 0.5%. Bad, a lot of people unnecessarily dead, but not an 8% fatality rate.

Posted on: 3/19 20:26
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Re: Coronavirus is now in Hudson County
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Anyone fluent in Italian? Here is a breakdown of deaths in Italy.

https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavir ... OVID-2019_17_marzo-v2.pdf

Per a Bloomberg article, 99% of the fatalities were already suffering from some other illness.


Thanks for the link! It's actually a pretty nice doc in that it lays out a lot of data in very simple terms. What the document describes is that they took data from 355 deceased (out of the 2003 that have died so far) and they presented a breakdown that shows 99% of that sample had other pre-existing conditions. They don't explain if the sample was random, or what else, but the breakdown indicates that of those 355 deceased patients, almost half (172, or 48.5%) had 3 or more pre-existing conditions, while one quarter had 2 pre-existing conditions, and another quarter had one pre-existing condition.

More interesting/telling is that the median age of diagnosed is 63, and that of the deceased is 80.5. People younger than 60 are hardly represented in recorded deaths, accounting for only 3.5%.

Posted on: 3/19 20:24
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Re: Coronavirus is now in Hudson County
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The point being, no one cared when this happened in 2009. No one cares when public schools get notices that children coming from immigrant homes are bringing in measles and TB among other diseases but for some reason the world goes ballistic over corona. Why were they silent on other health matters?


I know math is not your thing, and common sense seems to be lacking as well, so any further explanation is probably a waste oof time. But, I will try again: if we were to suffer a similar outbreak (~61 MM people infected) and the current mortality rate holds, we are looking at close to a million people dead. That's a HUGE number. That's why people (and, the world) are going "ballistic".

Now, imagine we were experiencing a mortality rate like that of Spain (5%) or Italy (8%) and we would be looking at total deaths between 3 and 5 million people if this thing was to spread to 61 MM people.

That's why people are panicking and why governments all over the world are reacting with such strict measures. Other health matters haven't seen those kind of numbers when it comes to mortality.

Posted on: 3/19 20:07
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Re: Coronavirus is now in Hudson County
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Anyone fluent in Italian? Here is a breakdown of deaths in Italy.

https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavir ... OVID-2019_17_marzo-v2.pdf

Per a Bloomberg article, 99% of the fatalities were already suffering from some other illness.

Posted on: 3/19 18:08
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Re: Coronavirus is now in Hudson County
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Yvonne wrote:
The point being, no one cared when this happened in 2009. No one cares when public schools get notices that children coming from immigrant homes are bringing in measles and TB among other diseases but for some reason the world goes ballistic over corona. Why were they silent on other health matters?


you will never get it. but keep us entertained with your empty head pecking at the keyboard.

Posted on: 3/19 16:36
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Re: Coronavirus is now in Hudson County
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I am getting worried the economic fallout is going to be worse than Covid itself.


My favorite economic sideshow is how this is going to affect the shale plays. I've been hearing for years none of it was ever actually profitable, that it was all basically a debt fueled Ponzi scheme. So while right now energy prices are in freefall, the recovery may be with no fracking and virtual banking subsidy of energy prices. Great for alternative energy in the long run, but no the short.

The other big story is how irresponsible corporate America has been with it's 'boom money", making Trump happy by raising stock prices at all cost. They not only put their tax windfall money into buybacks, they actually borrowed deeply to buy back stocks and give dividends to make the usual suspects wealthier. That's not what rational Capitalists do, it's the MO of corporate raiders. WTF has happened to American Capitalism? Milton Friedman basically destroyed it. We've become of nation of grasshoppers, having no idea how to save for a rainy day on an institutional level.

Posted on: 3/19 15:30
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Re: Coronavirus is now in Hudson County
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Breakdown of the deaths / recoveries in Wuhan, if you feel like getting into the statistical weeds....


https://www.thelancet.com/action/showP ... KvchBRDSxFRMpBuQeKyuBj6OU

Posted on: 3/19 15:13
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Re: Coronavirus is now in Hudson County
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The point being, no one cared when this happened in 2009. No one cares when public schools get notices that children coming from immigrant homes are bringing in measles and TB among other diseases but for some reason the world goes ballistic over corona. Why were they silent on other health matters?

Posted on: 3/19 14:55
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