Orlando was down so much really had no where to go but up...

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America's 5 Best Performing Housing Markets

By Venessa Wong, Bloomberg Businessweek
July 8, 2011

Home sale prices in the U.S. are expected to fall a further 2.4
percent in the second half of 2011, compared to the first half, as
bank-owned properties drive down prices, unemployment remains high,
and consumer confidence stays weak, according to a report released
Friday by Truckee, Calif.-based data and valuation firm Clear Capital.
Of 50 U.S. markets tracked for the report, only five metro areas are
forecast to produce home-price gains in the second half: Washington,
New York, Orlando, Dallas, and San Francisco.

U.S. home prices fell by 3.2 percent in the first six months of 2011
compared to the previous half, with median home prices dropping to
$170,000, despite a 0.9 percent increase in the second quarter,
estimates Clear Capital. The peak of the market was in summer of 2006,
at $240,000, indicating a median price decline of nearly 31 percent
since then.

The modest increase in the second quarter may be seasonal, as
homebuying typically picks up in the warmer months. It is nonetheless
encouraging, says Alex Villacorta, director of research and analytics
at Clear Capital. "That?s not bad, as we?re under heavy inventory
levels, high unemployment, and consumer confidence levels are not
where they need to be," he says. "It?s not the type of increase that
signifies a V-shaped recovery. It will be more muted."

A Boom in Distressed Sales

Before the housing collapse, the number of distressed sales
historically made up a small percentage of the market. In the first
half of 2011, however, bank-owned homes represented more than 30
percent of total sales, which is far above pre-2006 levels of less
than 5 percent, according to Clear Capital. "A lot of the decline is a
result of distressed sales," says Celia Chen, senior director of the
Moody?s Analytics research staff, specializing in housing economics.
In 2010 there were 1.7 million distressed sales, up from an average of
450,000 per year during the pre-collapse period from 2000 to 2005,
according to data from Moody?s.

The rate of decline has tapered off in recent months, following a slow
winter homebuying season and a double dip earlier this year. Prices
are expected to be less volatile, though "it is unlikely national home
prices have reached a true and sustainable bottom," states Clear
Capital?s report. The firm expects national home prices to drift
slightly downward until next year because of such factors as the
financial crisis in Europe and jammed discussions regarding the debt
ceiling in Washington. By May, the unemployment rate stood at a high
9.1 percent, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

Clear Capital projects the Virginia Beach, Va., metropolitan area will
be the weakest-performing market over the next six months, followed by
the metros of Cleveland, Minneapolis, Chicago, and Fresno, Calif.

Under current conditions, and presuming continued job growth,
Villacorta and Chen both say home prices may reach bottom in the first
quarter of 2012. In its most recent economic projection, the Fed
expects the jobless rate in 2012 to fall to between 7.8 percent and
8.2 percent, with gross domestic product growth anticipated at from
3.3 percent to 3.7 percent. "Those [price] upticks from April are
being sustained," says Villacorta. "Albeit slim, it?s a step in the
right direction."

Here are America's 5 next best performing housing markets:

No. 5: San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, Calif.
Forecast price change, July to December 2011: 0.2%
Observed January to June 2011: -3.9%

No. 4: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Tex.
Forecast price change, July to December 2011: 0.3%
Observed January to June 2011: -5.1%

No. 3: Orlando, Fla.
Forecast price change, July to December 2011: 0.7%
Observed January to June 2011: -0.1%

No. 2: New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, N.Y
Forecast price change, July to December 2011: 2.6%
Observed January to June 2011: 1.9%

No. 1: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, D.C.-Va.-Md.-W.V.
Forecast price change, July to December 2011: 2.8%
Observed January to June 2011: 4.4%

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