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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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07310 wrote:
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thor800 wrote:

But will the milennials want to buy in high cost areas or gtavitate towards up and coming affordable ones ?


They will buy at whatever level they can afford, they are the same as everyone when buying RE.


Their standards of affordability are warped tho.

Posted on: 2016/6/12 2:21
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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thor800 wrote:

But will the milennials want to buy in high cost areas or gtavitate towards up and coming affordable ones ?


They will buy at whatever level they can afford, they are the same as everyone when buying RE.

Posted on: 2016/6/11 16:58
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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It's also a matter of time before the Snake People (Millennials, for those of you not in the know) start buying homes.


Really? All the millennials I know are lucky to pay their student loans & rent, if they're not living in their parents basement. I've had several tenants with over $100k in loans.

The oldest Millennials are 34, and they won't be stuck in those basements forever. Even if they are just renting, that's still going to put pressure on all housing costs.


But will the milennials want to buy in high cost areas or gtavitate towards up and coming affordable ones ?

Posted on: 2016/6/11 13:44
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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Frinjc wrote:
Thanks for your insight. You may arguably be right (after all, hasn't Toronto defied correction prognosis for a while?). The definition of a bubble vs correction is arguable though. That being said, I can't forget the recent brochure I got from a realtor recently showing a 13% appreciation in price but also 13% longer time to sale for properties on the market (36 days). Higher ends properties can linger quite a bit on the market isn't it. How do you think it will play out in the next couple of years once you include the new assessments?


Well, I would think that some properties are lingering longer as buyers price them way too high (hoping for some gullible nincompoop that has bought into the "JC is the new Brooklyn!" mantra) and they then stubbornly drag their feet on adjusting prices until convinced by reality, or their realtor.

Posted on: 2016/6/10 15:31
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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Dolomiti wrote:
It's also a matter of time before the Snake People (Millennials, for those of you not in the know) start buying homes.


Really? All the millennials I know are lucky to pay their student loans & rent, if they're not living in their parents basement. I've had several tenants with over $100k in loans.

The oldest Millennials are 34, and they won't be stuck in those basements forever. Even if they are just renting, that's still going to put pressure on all housing costs.

Posted on: 2016/6/10 13:26
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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What I've noticed is a lot of millennials opt for multi-family units, with parents moving in to help with their kids.

Posted on: 2016/6/10 0:50
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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Dolomiti wrote:
It's also a matter of time before the Snake People (Millennials, for those of you not in the know) start buying homes.


Really? All the millennials I know are lucky to pay their student loans & rent, if they're not living in their parents basement. I've had several tenants with over $100k in loans.

Posted on: 2016/6/10 0:40
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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Thanks for your insight. You may arguably be right (after all, hasn't Toronto defied correction prognosis for a while?). The definition of a bubble vs correction is arguable though. That being said, I can't forget the recent brochure I got from a realtor recently showing a 13% appreciation in price but also 13% longer time to sale for properties on the market (36 days). Higher ends properties can linger quite a bit on the market isn't it. How do you think it will play out in the next couple of years once you include the new assessments?

Suggested answers: a) don't worry and go smell the rose in Van Worst Park; b) Take your Citibike and run!; c) don't worry, the aussies will take care of it; d) don't worry, the chinese will take care of it; e) don't worry, Donald will take care of it; f) don't worry, Hillary will take care of it; g) don't worry, Steve will take care of it; h) don't worry Christie, you are not part of the discussion.

Posted on: 2016/6/10 0:09
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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Frinjc wrote:
It is pretty apparent looking at the for sale curve and property below that we are in a bubble...

No, it isn't.

People have claimed that JC is in another real estate bubble for over a year now (if not longer), based on no fundamentals or evidence whatsoever, regardless of any changes in RE values.

What's really going on is that inventory in desirable neighborhoods of JC is very limited. Most of JC is rentals (at least 70%); a lot of the new units in JC are also rentals; after the 2007 bubble burst, the market overcorrected by underbuilding new housing; people are still getting priced out of Manhattan and Brooklyn, and JC is just one of many places that gets the overflow.

It's also a matter of time before the Snake People (Millennials, for those of you not in the know) start buying homes.

Drastic increases in property values won't "pop the bubble," because there is no bubble. What it will do is ding RE values for a brief time, perhaps a year. During that year, the New York Times will continue to run RE fluff pieces about how Dorian and Ayumi who think Paulus Hook is "exotic" and "undiscovered," while Manhattan gets more expensive and more people want to live in NYC.

Posted on: 2016/6/9 14:53
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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JCGuys wrote:
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Think of all the poor, black families that were forced to move when downtown JC no longer was affordable. It sucks. NJ needs better laws to protect homeownership.

(I haven't owned long, and I still expect to get socked. Anyway:)

You mean, better laws so that people don't have to pay their real estate taxes? Seems like an odd request.


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I would love to see something in Florida where property tax assessments are capped to 3 percent a year, or inflation, whatever is lower, if the property is your homestead. It discourages renting and promotes homeownership, and keeps taxes low for long term residents.

Yes, because that worked so well in California. ;)

I'm also not sure how well it works when a city only does a reval once every 30 years.

Socking landlords with a full force tax bill, while homeowners get a huge break, is deeply unfair. Everyone who lives here benefits from city services, and ought to pay their taxes. Homeowners should not get a tax break by foisting their tax bill onto renters.

In terms of reducing renters (in a city that is 70% or more rental): Landlords are not going to do a condo conversion and/or sell their buildings because they have a bigger tax bill. They're going to pass on the costs to their tenants. That's going to drive out low-income residents.

Or, let's say that there is a sudden wave of landlords selling their units. How many low-income families will be able to afford what they're selling?

At the risk of stating the obvious:

1) The real issue here is that JC hasn't done a reval in almost 30 years, and this leaves homeowners unprepared for a big change.

2) If you want to pay lower property taxes, then we should pass laws reducing property tax rates. Not play games with rate increases.

Posted on: 2016/6/9 14:18
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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brewster wrote:
One must assume they think it's a better investment than other options. Might be in the long run. But there's no way they're getting enough rent to justify the cost in strict business terms. Assuming a cash investment they'd have to be NETTING $8,300/mo just to make a 5% cap rate. Any idea what those houses actually rent for?


I don't know about all of them but the last I looked (about a month ago) they had several houses listed at rents north of that - two were above $12,000/month.

Posted on: 2016/6/9 13:04
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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I have talked with a friend on that and we agree. The more ruckus we can do to make people aware the better for the curve adjustment - I intend to stay. What is really puzzling is the aussies that keep buying $2M houses. Regardless of steady income why would one do this right now?


One must assume they think it's a better investment than other options. Might be in the long run. But there's no way they're getting enough rent to justify the cost in strict business terms. Assuming a cash investment they'd have to be NETTING $8,300/mo just to make a 5% cap rate. Any idea what those houses actually rent for?


Are they still actually buying $2M houses ? I can see them buying 4 fam units downtown which might come close to breaking even but seemed like they were more active a year or two ago.

Posted on: 2016/6/9 1:06
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Frinjc wrote:
I have talked with a friend on that and we agree. The more ruckus we can do to make people aware the better for the curve adjustment - I intend to stay. What is really puzzling is the aussies that keep buying $2M houses. Regardless of steady income why would one do this right now?


One must assume they think it's a better investment than other options. Might be in the long run. But there's no way they're getting enough rent to justify the cost in strict business terms. Assuming a cash investment they'd have to be NETTING $8,300/mo just to make a 5% cap rate. Any idea what those houses actually rent for?

Posted on: 2016/6/9 0:59
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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I have talked with a friend on that and we agree. The more ruckus we can do to make people aware the better for the curve adjustment - I intend to stay. What is really puzzling is the aussies that keep buying $2M houses. Regardless of steady income why would one do this right now?

Posted on: 2016/6/9 0:25
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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Lots of properties in small geographic area tho.

Last reval before cancelled had "years of data". City hasnt even awarded a contract for reval that supposedly done in little over a year.

Posted on: 2016/6/9 0:01
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hudson57 wrote:
impossible. 2 years seems to be realistic time frame to do the actual appraisal. city will ask and get extension(s).


Well, yes, if they keep dragging their feet it would be impossible to get ANYTHING done. But, honestly, geographically, JC is not THAT big, so getting this reval done in a year should be readily doable.

Posted on: 2016/6/8 21:01
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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impossible. 2 years seems to be realistic time frame to do the actual appraisal. city will ask and get extension(s).

Posted on: 2016/6/8 20:38
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thor800 wrote:
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If this whole mess starts november 2017 (?) wouldn't it take at least a year or two to appraise every single property in the city and figure out changes in taxes ?

...


Nov 2017 is completion date - and will impact tax bills from Jan 2018.

Posted on: 2016/6/8 20:29
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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If this whole mess starts november 2017 (?) wouldn't it take at least a year or two to appraise every single property in the city and figure out changes in taxes ?


The state ordered the reval to be completed by Nov. 2017.

Posted on: 2016/6/8 20:28
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By the time the reval is complete - the market should price concerns about higher property taxes into account.

If this whole mess starts november 2017 (?) wouldn't it take at least a year or two to appraise every single property in the city and figure out changes in taxes ?

Thats at least a good amount of time for the market to sort itself out although I do see some volatility as the reality sets in short term.

Posted on: 2016/6/8 20:13
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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So, what happened to real estate downtown during 2014, right before Fulop canceled the revaluation?

If I remember correctly it was canceled at the last minute, after two years of "work" by the reval firm. Unfortunately, I was not paying attention to sales volume or pricing then, and I didn't notice any consequences, separate from nyc or national trends.

Posted on: 2016/6/8 17:39
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Frinjc wrote:
It is pretty apparent looking at the for sale curve and property below that we are in a bubble and people are starting to get out. The sooner potential sellers and buyers know about the reval and their presumed rate around 2.5% the better. Hopefully it will be a buyer market for a few years to neutralize the recent years excesses and it will significantly impact the appraisals. If this happens, I see no reason to appeal. Otherwise...


You know, it might actually be good for JC to get ahead of the curve on the bubble, having a slow and partial market retraction now might ease the pain of a larger pop later. Kinda putting us out of phase with the rest of the area markets. JC sellers will be through the denial and on to acceptance while other markets are still in the 1st steps of "market crash grief". This will make JC look cheap by comparison.

Unless of course the regional bubble pops at the same time as the reval tax bills hit. That will look like the apocalypse, and thank Fulop for the timing.

Posted on: 2016/6/8 0:17

Edited by brewster on 2016/6/8 0:35:40
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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It is pretty apparent looking at the for sale curve and property below that we are in a bubble and people are starting to get out. The sooner potential sellers and buyers know about the reval and their presumed rate around 2.5% the better. Hopefully it will be a buyer market for a few years to neutralize the recent years excesses and it will significantly impact the appraisals. If this happens, I see no reason to appeal. Otherwise...

Posted on: 2016/6/7 23:26
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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brewster wrote:
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You must have bought young if you're not 62 yet and can't qualify for a reverse mortgage.


5 months to go until I hit 62. And yes, it's one of my options-

Part of the decision is my estimate/guess of to what extent DTJC properties will DECLINE in value as hundreds(?) of homeowners sell before or after the reval. When my taxes go up by $20k or so it's a safe bet the value of my home will decline accordingly.

Selling now and taking the one-time capital gains exemption for real estate is another option. Feedback welcome; my crystal ball is a little foggy on this one...


I'd look to Hoboken for comparison. I'd say it will be no more than a short term price blip. For comparison - what would a 1% increase in mortgage rates do to house prices. In a hot market - not much.

Posted on: 2016/6/7 21:07
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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brewster wrote:
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You must have bought young if you're not 62 yet and can't qualify for a reverse mortgage.


5 months to go until I hit 62. And yes, it's one of my options-

Part of the decision is my estimate/guess of to what extent DTJC properties will DECLINE in value as hundreds(?) of homeowners sell before or after the reval. When my taxes go up by $20k or so it's a safe bet the value of my home will decline accordingly.

Selling now and taking the one-time capital gains exemption for real estate is another option. Feedback welcome; my crystal ball is a little foggy on this one...

Posted on: 2016/6/7 20:45
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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jcneighbor wrote:
Wow, +2,111% appreciation in 28 years! But that is one Butt-Ugly house IMO and the Realtor-Speak description as:
"Beautiful rare 1 Family house in Jersey City Downtown! Updates needed" is just ridiculous.

I may be forced to sell and move because of my likely tax bill post-reval. Kinda sucks after being here 30 years, starting when Downtown was kind of a dump...


You must have bought young if you're not 62 yet and can't qualify for a reverse mortgage.

Posted on: 2016/6/7 20:23
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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But that is one Butt-Ugly house IMO and the Realtor-Speak description as:
"Beautiful rare 1 Family house in Jersey City Downtown! Updates needed" is just ridiculous.


No kidding! $1 million for that place - mind bending!

Posted on: 2016/6/7 20:21
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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jcneighbor wrote:
Wow, +2,111% appreciation in 28 years! But that is one Butt-Ugly house IMO and the Realtor-Speak description as:
"Beautiful rare 1 Family house in Jersey City Downtown! Updates needed" is just ridiculous.

I may be forced to sell and move because of my likely tax bill post-reval. Kinda sucks after being here 30 years, starting when Downtown was kind of a dump...


Think of all the poor, black families that were forced to move when downtown JC no longer was affordable. It sucks. NJ needs better laws to protect homeownership. I would love to see something in Florida where property tax assessments are capped to 3 percent a year, or inflation, whatever is lower, if the property is your homestead. It discourages renting and promotes homeownership, and keeps taxes low for long term residents.

Posted on: 2016/6/7 20:19
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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Wow, +2,111% appreciation in 28 years! But that is one Butt-Ugly house IMO and the Realtor-Speak description as:
"Beautiful rare 1 Family house in Jersey City Downtown! Updates needed" is just ridiculous.

I may be forced to sell and move because of my likely tax bill post-reval. Kinda sucks after being here 30 years, starting when Downtown was kind of a dump...

Posted on: 2016/6/7 20:07
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Re: Jersey City mayor-elect orders end to citywide reval
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Frinjc wrote:
For sale signs seem to have percolated up recently from what I have seen though I may be misreading typical end of school activities.


I don't think you are misreading at all. Two weeks ago, there were 60 properties for sale in 07302 with asking prices of 750K and higher. Today, there are 79. That's a 30% increase in just two weeks. I think that part of the increase is tied to regular seasonal fluctuations, but I also believe that some of it is due to people being proactive about the reval.

The sad part in all this is that some homebuyers are jumping into the market and snapping properties completely oblivious to the upcoming reval. Those will be the people that will get shafted the most: bought high, zero to little equity in their new home, and likely bought too much house because it was affordable given the ridiculously low taxes.


It's now been almost two weeks since I last checked, and there are now 84 homes for sale that meet the criteria of being in 07302 and with an asking price of 750K. I am pretty sure there will be much more soon.

And, btw, for those who still want to claim that taxes in DTJC are not all that unfairly low, check out this property... an unabated property paying less than 0.6%. I am sure the owner will try to unload that property before it gets revalued and assessed north of 20K in taxes.

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/80- ... y-NJ-07302/38888586_zpid/

Posted on: 2016/6/7 19:52
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