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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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Sommerman wrote:
++ I couldn't make any sense of the post, so happy to read that someone else found it senseless. Does anyone have any facts on what % of condos in DTJC are being used as investment rentals?

Isn't it time we developed a bit more self-esteem and stopped thinking of a JC real estate market and accept that we are part of the peripheral market surrounding Manhattan, a market where for more and more people JC neighborhoods appears on the same "need to check out" list as parts of Brooklyn, Queens, etc.


I agree, we need to have a regional view of the JC RE market. We are still the most affordable option in the metro area that is close to Manhattan. People who have been priced out of DTJC will have to consider Greenville, B/L and the Heights which is great for those areas. Rising values in those areas will push DT values higher.

Posted on: 2015/7/13 12:36
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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kingster wrote:
What do you guys think of the Downtown Jersey City home prices given all these new rentals opening up? I recall seeing a 1 bedroom apt last year that was asking for $480k. Now a comparable apt is asking for $550k. Seems like the prices will have to go down when all the rentals open up since residents will have more options to choose from? Thoughts?


What in da fuk are you talking about? Obviously, you have a tenuous grasp (at best!) on how real estate works. All those rentals are, well, exactly that: rentals. Condos and other "for sale" real estate properties are in very tight supply, and will continue to be in tight supply precisely because developers are building rental towers. Real estate prices will continue to climb for the foreseeable future. Right now, in DTJC, there are *two* condo buildings slated for construction, so that will not even make a dent on the tight supply and high demand situation. And, despite the ever increasing supply of rental units, the rents being commanded continue to rise. It's not at all uncommon to find apartments renting downtown for over 4 and 5 thousands.

Why do you even think that an abundance of rental units will impact condo prices? If anything, as rents continue to rise, you will see condo prices go up. An investor looking to buy properties that he would then rent to others is probably more willing to pay more for those properties if he knows he can rent them out for more.

Is your post an indication of some wishful thinking? Were you perhaps hoping to buy something in DTJC and found yourself priced out?


++ I couldn't make any sense of the post, so happy to read that someone else found it senseless. Does anyone have any facts on what % of condos in DTJC are being used as investment rentals?

Isn't it time we developed a bit more self-esteem and stopped thinking of a JC real estate market and accept that we are part of the peripheral market surrounding Manhattan, a market where for more and more people JC neighborhoods appears on the same "need to check out" list as parts of Brooklyn, Queens, etc.

Posted on: 2015/7/13 11:26
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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kingster wrote:
What do you guys think of the Downtown Jersey City home prices given all these new rentals opening up? I recall seeing a 1 bedroom apt last year that was asking for $480k. Now a comparable apt is asking for $550k. Seems like the prices will have to go down when all the rentals open up since residents will have more options to choose from? Thoughts?


What in da fuk are you talking about? Obviously, you have a tenuous grasp (at best!) on how real estate works. All those rentals are, well, exactly that: rentals. Condos and other "for sale" real estate properties are in very tight supply, and will continue to be in tight supply precisely because developers are building rental towers. Real estate prices will continue to climb for the foreseeable future. Right now, in DTJC, there are *two* condo buildings slated for construction, so that will not even make a dent on the tight supply and high demand situation. And, despite the ever increasing supply of rental units, the rents being commanded continue to rise. It's not at all uncommon to find apartments renting downtown for over 4 and 5 thousands.

Why do you even think that an abundance of rental units will impact condo prices? If anything, as rents continue to rise, you will see condo prices go up. An investor looking to buy properties that he would then rent to others is probably more willing to pay more for those properties if he knows he can rent them out for more.

Is your post an indication of some wishful thinking? Were you perhaps hoping to buy something in DTJC and found yourself priced out?

Posted on: 2015/7/13 5:47
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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What do you guys think of the Downtown Jersey City home prices given all these new rentals opening up? I recall seeing a 1 bedroom apt last year that was asking for $480k. Now a comparable apt is asking for $550k. Seems like the prices will have to go down when all the rentals open up since residents will have more options to choose from? Thoughts?

Posted on: 2015/7/13 0:53
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It's also depressing at the same time, actually...

I guess my dreams of living in a brownstone where my kids can run wild without my neighbor knocking on my door is over

Posted on: 2015/6/15 1:46
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SRhia wrote:
I went to see a 1bedroom condo in Paulus hook in 2009 for $375K (could have gotten it for $340K at the end, it was a short sale). Now it's back on the market for $575K.

The rate of price increases in the last few years is a bit scary, in my opinion.


Why do you think it's scary? Scary for some, payday for others, I guess. Do you think the 1BR in Paulus Hook will sell or is that an unrealistic price?


I think the "rate of increase" is scary - $200k in 6 years, that's $33K per year increase, whereas salaries remain (almost) flat within the same time frame.

And it doesn't matter what I think - I won't be surprised if someone brought it already.



It's only scary if you are trying to buy in this market and you realize you have been priced out of the places you want to live.

Posted on: 2015/6/14 23:16
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SRhia wrote:
I went to see a 1bedroom condo in Paulus hook in 2009 for $375K (could have gotten it for $340K at the end, it was a short sale). Now it's back on the market for $575K.

The rate of price increases in the last few years is a bit scary, in my opinion.


Why do you think it's scary? Scary for some, payday for others, I guess. Do you think the 1BR in Paulus Hook will sell or is that an unrealistic price?


I think the "rate of increase" is scary - $200k in 6 years, that's $33K per year increase, whereas salaries remain (almost) flat within the same time frame.

And it doesn't matter what I think - I won't be surprised if someone brought it already.


Posted on: 2015/6/14 21:13
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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SRhia wrote:
I went to see a 1bedroom condo in Paulus hook in 2009 for $375K (could have gotten it for $340K at the end, it was a short sale). Now it's back on the market for $575K.

The rate of price increases in the last few years is a bit scary, in my opinion.


Why do you think it's scary? Scary for some, payday for others, I guess. Do you think the 1BR in Paulus Hook will sell or is that an unrealistic price?

Posted on: 2015/6/14 18:30
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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I went to see a 1bedroom condo in Paulus hook in 2009 for $375K (could have gotten it for $340K at the end, it was a short sale). Now it's back on the market for $575K.

The rate of price increases in the last few years is a bit scary, in my opinion.

Posted on: 2015/6/14 17:51
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Man, a $1300 two bedroom would solve like, 90% of my life problems.


Did you mean to say "a $1300 two bedroom Downtown"? Because you can easily hit that in the Height or other areas. I rented out a 3BR railroad near the reservoir last fall for $1200, heat included.

Posted on: 2015/6/14 17:19
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Man, a $1300 two bedroom would solve like, 90% of my life problems.

Posted on: 2015/6/14 13:16
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The roughly one-third of New Jersey households comprised of tenants face rents that rank among the most costly in the nation, according to a new report, which shows only California, the District of Columbia, Hawaii and New York are less affordable than the Garden State.

A renter in New Jersey must earn $25.17 an hour ? or $52,347 a year ? to afford the average fair-market rate of $1,309 for a two-bedroom rental, according to the annual report from the National Low Income Housing Coalition.

The report, which defines affordability as a tenant not spending more than 30 percent of their income on rent and utilities, has ranked New Jersey among the top five most expensive places to rent in the country for years.

Arnold Cohen, senior policy coordinator for the Housing and Community Development Network of New Jersey, said many in the state fall under the income threshold needed to afford a two-bedroom apartment.

"People that are taking care of our children, people that are taking care of our elderly, people that are taking care of us as we go shopping in stores on a daily basis, folks who we depend upon for our very livelihood, cannot afford a place to live here," he said.

Story

Posted on: 2015/5/19 23:42
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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Sommerman wrote:
Can there really be a bubble as long as interchangeable neighborhoods in Brooklyn, and now Queens, remain more expensive?

With the exception of bi-coastal couples where someone needs a car to get to a NJ job and the other works in Manhattan how often is DTJC just the cheapest choice?

The only people who think JC RE is in a bubble are the people who have been priced out of DTJC. We are still still the lowest priced option with good proximity to Manhattan.

Posted on: 2015/5/19 14:35
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Sommerman wrote:
Can there really be a bubble as long as interchangeable neighborhoods in Brooklyn, and now Queens, remain more expensive?

With the exception of bi-coastal couples where someone needs a car to get to a NJ job and the other works in Manhattan how often is DTJC just the cheapest choice?


I don't think it's in a bubble. It's just seeing rampant, and long overdue, investment due to a confluence of factors.

- A reversion to the mean in terms of "back to the city" living. The rest of the world doesn't generally have decaying inner cities like the US, in part because the US' experience was spurred by decades of bad govt. policy.
- A secular overall drop in urban crime rates nationwide encouraging urban-o-philes to stay put longer.
- Decent (if not great) transit access to the nearest urban core.
- Proximity to a major global (and growing) employment hub.
- NYC's destination for massive amounts of foreign capital driving up real estate prices across the board.
- Western Queens and much of Brooklyn, the traditional alternatives to Manhattan are getting out of reach for many buyers and renters.
- And even if you bake in a substantial PATH/PA "crappy transit" discount, the nicest assets in JC are trading for approximately half the price of comparably-priced property in Manhattan and parts of Bk. That is a huge arbitrage that *has* to narrow in short order.

Buy and hold I say.

Posted on: 2015/5/19 14:23
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Can there really be a bubble as long as interchangeable neighborhoods in Brooklyn, and now Queens, remain more expensive?

With the exception of bi-coastal couples where someone needs a car to get to a NJ job and the other works in Manhattan how often is DTJC just the cheapest choice?

Posted on: 2015/5/19 13:54
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Everyone is quick to point out that jitneys are plentiful, but many people don't like jitneys, some are even afraid of them.


Some of my younger neighbors before the lightrail came here had never been to New York City can you imagine? but the rail has now introduced them to a whole new world.


I have come across this before and it BAFFLES me. It is hard to believe that there are people in Bayonne and JC that have NEVER been to NYC.

The Light Rail has definitely done wonders for development and real estate that is along its path or close to stations (look at all the development happening at the Southern tip of Bayonne) but I am not a big fan. I think it is slow and takes a while to get you places. I much prefer to ride my bike. But, whenever I ride the light rail, it has been pleasant enough. Certainly, it is much better (to me) than riding a bus or a jitney. I despise the jitneys: they drive like maniacs, and some of them look like they are one bad road bump away from falling apart.

Posted on: 2015/5/19 13:13
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Everyone is quick to point out that jitneys are plentiful, but many people don't like jitneys, some are even afraid of them.


Exactly, I prefer trains and rails. I don't do well on buses or jitneys. I have taken the 120 a few times from Wall street to Bayonne and riding my bike back and its pretty dreadful.

Some of my younger neighbors before the lightrail came here had never been to New York City can you imagine? but the rail has now introduced them to a whole new world.

I am a big fan of the lightrail and glad to have access to it. The lightrail opens up opportunities for the community with easy access to New York City.


Posted on: 2015/5/19 12:33
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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Wishful_Thinking wrote:
I'm always dismayed by how low the sales prices are on Heights properties; good sized, late 19th century single-family frame rowhouses (with some nice woodwork inside) selling for just over $300K.


So what does it tell us when one poster is kvetching about high prices and another is bemoaning low sales prices?

Perspective is everything.



Bingo. Perspective IS everything. Personally, I find some areas of the Heights to be full of potential, and others dreary. But, overall, I think it will not fully take off because of the mass transit options currently available. Everyone is quick to point out that jitneys are plentiful, but many people don't like jitneys, some are even afraid of them. And, some point out being able to walk to the Hoboken PATH, or the Congress Ave station, but let's be honest: we have bitter winters, and grueling summers. The weather is not always great around here, and when it is snowing, raining, or particularly cold or hot, walking a mile, or two, is not fun. If NJT ever gets the light rail extended INTO The Heights, I think you would finally see mass gentrification happen at a quicker pace. Until then, the Heights residents are stuck with a messy patchwork of mass transit consisting of unreliable bus service, jitneys, and a lot of walking.

But, again, there is no arguing there is some great housing stock if you look around and do your homework.

Posted on: 2015/5/19 12:15
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Wishful_Thinking wrote:
I'm always dismayed by how low the sales prices are on Heights properties; good sized, late 19th century single-family frame rowhouses (with some nice woodwork inside) selling for just over $300K.


So what does it tell us when one poster is kvetching about high prices and another is bemoaning low sales prices?

Perspective is everything.


Posted on: 2015/5/18 20:00
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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Agreed...and exactly my point.

There are also so many nice streets up here with beautiful victorians. Is it all great? Of course not. But as a whole, not a bad place to live, and getting better by the day.

Posted on: 2015/5/18 19:16
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Jcpaddy wrote:
A real estate agent tried to convince me to buy in the Heights 20 years ago.

I went with my gut and bought.

3 houses later it is unequivocally the greatest decision of my life.

You will not find a better place to get yourself going on the real estate ladder. Take it for what it's worth.

This new boom is just starting...



I did 3 houses Downtown, but the 10 years between when I started and you did saw a LOT of changes going on in JC. And I'd agree with you that the next boom is just starting (other than Downtown), especially for the areas in closest proximity to light rail and PATH.

People from the trendy places in Brooklyn or just about anywhere in Manhattan come over here and they think prices are cheap! It's just a matter of time...


Posted on: 2015/5/18 19:03
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A real estate agent tried to convince me to buy in the Heights 20 years ago.

I went with my gut and bought.

3 houses later it is unequivocally the greatest decision of my life.

You will not find a better place to get yourself going on the real estate ladder. Take it for what it's worth.

This new boom is just starting...


Posted on: 2015/5/18 18:15
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30 years ago a real estate agent was trying to convince me to buy in the Heights (JSQ was WAAY worse than it is now), saying it was the next great place that was "happening". I went with my gut and declined...

I live in the Heights, having bought my condo 6 years ago. Recently I signed up to get regular e-mail messages from www.trulia.com when properties in the Heights either come on the market or are sold. I'm always dismayed by how low the sales prices are on Heights properties; good sized, late 19th century single-family frame rowhouses (with some nice woodwork inside) selling for just over $300K. I think the lack of a dedicated parking spot really works against you in the Heights, as 2br renovated condos and newer 2 family houses (with garages) tend to sell for upwards of $500K.

Still, one has to wonder why if Manhattan is in hyper-bubble mode, and DTJC appears to be approaching bubble mode, why does the Heights not "take off"?

Posted on: 2015/5/18 18:08
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greenville wrote:
LOL! Just compare the stats, the Heights is over hyped. http://www.areavibes.com/jersey+city-nj/the+heights/crime/


What are you trying to say? The Heights crime stats are only slightly better than Greenville, but so what? Is that the only metric you use? Most people use many more, and have their own preferences in mind when weighing the factors.


Exactly. That's why they make chocolate and vanilla (and a whole lot more). DTJC wasn't exactly a picnic 30 years ago - cars stolen, houses broken into, needles all over the parks, bikes that wouldn't last 30 minutes parked on the street and even gunshots in the night. Home prices were cheap but enough people had the vision and determination to buy here and stay here and VOTE here and make it better and now it's priced at a premium.

Neighborhoods will always change. It's just a matter of time but nobody has the miracle crystal ball. 30 years ago a real estate agent was trying to convince me to buy in the Heights (JSQ was WAAY worse than it is now), saying it was the next great place that was "happening". I went with my gut and declined...


Posted on: 2015/5/18 17:56
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greenville wrote:
LOL! Just compare the stats, the Heights is over hyped. http://www.areavibes.com/jersey+city-nj/the+heights/crime/


What are you trying to say? The Heights crime stats are only slightly better than Greenville, but so what? Is that the only metric you use? Most people use many more, and have their own preferences in mind when weighing the factors.

Posted on: 2015/5/18 17:14
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Jcpaddy wrote:
Greenville,
How clueless are you?
"Knowing how things are in the Heights"...
Do you mean nice and safe?
Do you mean great location to New York and Hoboken?
Do you mean more bang for your dollar per square foot than any other place in the city? Where you can purchase a house with a garage and yard and actually how room to move around?
Do you mean where you can buy a brownstone that would be over a million dollars in Brooklyn, Hoboken and downtown JC for half the price in a nice neighborhood?

Is this what you mean?

Don't be jealous as to what's going on up here. The Heights has always been one of the nicest and most underrated parts of the city and it's finally getting it's due.

If you had any sense at all, you should've bought up here.
You didn't, so stay in Greenville and be bitter.

Unbelievable,... get a clue, please.


LOL! Just compare the stats, the Heights is over hyped. http://www.areavibes.com/jersey+city-nj/the+heights/crime/

Posted on: 2015/5/18 16:17
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Just a quick look in the market and it seems to me some real estate agents are out of their mind with asking prices for the Heights. Knowing how things in the Heights are you have to be a complete fool to pay even 75% of what they're asking for.


Selling prices are far more useful to see where the market actually is. Use one of the many tools like Zillow or http://tax1.co.monmouth.nj.us/cgi-bin ... h_type=0&out_type=0&adv=2 and see what they're selling for.

Posted on: 2015/5/18 15:06
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Greenville,
How clueless are you?
"Knowing how things are in the Heights"...
Do you mean nice and safe?
Do you mean great location to New York and Hoboken?
Do you mean more bang for your dollar per square foot than any other place in the city? Where you can purchase a house with a garage and yard and actually how room to move around?
Do you mean where you can buy a brownstone that would be over a million dollars in Brooklyn, Hoboken and downtown JC for half the price in a nice neighborhood?

Is this what you mean?

Don't be jealous as to what's going on up here. The Heights has always been one of the nicest and most underrated parts of the city and it's finally getting it's due.

If you had any sense at all, you should've bought up here.
You didn't, so stay in Greenville and be bitter.

Unbelievable,... get a clue, please.

Posted on: 2015/5/18 14:12
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Just a quick look in the market and it seems to me some real estate agents are out of their mind with asking prices for the Heights. Knowing how things in the Heights are you have to be a complete fool to pay even 75% of what they're asking for.

Posted on: 2015/5/18 13:04
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Re: Is Jersey City Real Estate in a bubble?
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Quote:

Dolomiti wrote:
The Najjar Group mails out JC/Hoboken summaries of MLS data, which indicates that for all of 2014, 935 condos were listed and 624 sold.


Is this just for zipcode 07302? Or all of Jersey City? Because this thread has centered around zipcode 07302, and those 1,350 units are being (or planned to be) built in zipcode 07302.

Quote:

Dolomiti wrote:
IIRC the Gannon is only 16 units, and the general agreement here is that the units weren't optimally designed, and they're asking too much. It's not a good bellwether.


Just FYI - the Gannon has 25 units.

Quote:

Dolomiti wrote:
You also don't recognize that in many cases, adding units will make an area more desirable. E.g. right now, JSQ is not a particularly hot real estate market, but once a big luxury tower opens, the people who live there will want fancy markets and shops and other amenities. This gentrifies the neighborhood, which in turn increases interest and demand.


Just because property values in JC went up considerably after the first sprouts of gentrification blossomed doesn't mean that they'll continue on an upward linear or exponential trajectory of price growth. For one thing (as others have already mentioned), prices may already have the value of many years of future gentrification factored into them. For another, alot of residents liked the JC of 2008, where there was a "comfortable" number of nice new buildings all over downtown, meaning that there were quite a few new buildings but roads, PATH stations (with the exception of Newport), and parks weren't overcrowded. I think it's safe to say that people generally like neighborhoods where they can get to know others more than they like overcrowding. If you look at Manhattan, the priciest neighborhoods aren't the most crowded ones lol (with the exception of billionaire's row perhaps, but those new buildings are selling for their one-of-a-kind views of Central Park).

Quote:

Dolomiti wrote:
I'm fairly confident JC's real estate market will do just fine in the long term, even with all the units coming on the market. At worst, prices will flatten for a few years.


I agree with you on this. But that doesn't mean prices right now accurately reflect current value and aren't going to drop. For the long-term, however, most of the key fundamental factors that encouraged people to flee to the suburbs are becoming a thing of the past (smog, a high rate of violent crime, abandoned graffiti-covered buildings, an abundance of cheap land in suburbs close to NYC). And for these reasons I agree that yes, JC real estate will do fine in the long term (but not in the short-term for reasons already mentioned many times).

Posted on: 2015/5/7 0:20
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