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Re: 2 Jersey City shooting incidents 30 minutes apart
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And it's useless to look at a study and instantly dismiss it.
Knowing about what they found in Richmond and Chicago makes me extremely curious about what the answer to that question looks like in JC: What proportion of the population is actually engaged in violent behavior, specifically gun violence? And who are they?

There was no causal study involved in those 2 statistics. The researchers simply used existing data to determine the proportion of people who engaged in those behaviors.

And if it is in fact a very small proportion of the population, and if you can identify who these people are, and if you can use those indicators to prevent more violence (a lot of 'Ifs' I know, but they have done in the cure violence programs), then that would be very useful.

If the big marketing companies can use 'big data' to find shopping patterns, and public health programs can study social networks help prevent illnesses, why not use the same techniques to predict/prevent violence?

Posted on: 2015/5/19 19:13
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Re: 2 Jersey City shooting incidents 30 minutes apart
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bodhipooh wrote:
And, by the way, an stagnating murder rate is not something to crow about, when just about every other major city has seen declining murder rates for the past decade, and year on year.

Among the 10 largest cities in the US, Chicago is second only to Philadelphia. Among the 20 largest cities in the US, it is third, surpassed only by Detroit (duh!) and Philadelphia. In that top 20 group, the next closest city has a murder rate that is a full third lower.


Whose crowing about anything? I simply pointing out that you said the hellhole Chicago 'has become'. 'Has become' has a connotation that things have gotten worse in Chicago, and that is simply not true, unless your time frame for 'gotten worse' is the late 60s.

Chicago clearly has issues, and it not nearly as safe as many other large cities in the US, but those issues aren't new and haven't been getting worse. They also haven't been getting better in the last decade, which is certainly a problem.

Posted on: 2015/5/19 18:20
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Re: 2 Jersey City shooting incidents 30 minutes apart
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marullos88 wrote:
Here's the evaluation of the Cease Fire/Cure Violence program in Chicago, and other neighborhoods in other cities. I didn't say that the program was implemented across all Chicago.
http://cureviolence.org/results/scientific-evaluations/


The story about Richmond is one case study that can help others, myself included, give some more thought to how, why, where gun violence occurs. Similar statistics have been found in other cities, where the gun violence can be attributed to very small groups of people. Another example, from Chicago, "70 percent of nonfatal injuries occur within networks containing 6 percent of the city's population." http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277953614000987

The fact that the cities are different doesn't make it useless, unless you say learning and thinking is useless. It helps us ask different questions, such as, who is actually doing this, how many of them, and how can this be prevented?



It is useless to pick an example, or case study, read the conclusions and then try to apply the lessons without actually understanding how the results came about. That's what I am trying to say. Knowledge is most useful when applied with a full understanding of the context from where it was derived. When you fail to understand the actual mechanics of something, you tend to reach the wrong conclusions. This concept is best illustrated by the logical fallacy of "post hoc ergo propter hoc" (Y happened after X, therefore X caused Y).

Stop me if you have heard this before: more kids are being vaccinated, and more kids are being diagnosed with autism. Therefore, the vaccines are causing autism. Yup, that's the whole logic to the anti-vaxxers position. Well, that, and a disproven study by a quack doctor. The point is that trying to gleam some knowledge from the results of a study without fully understanding how those results came about is a (common) mistake.

Posted on: 2015/5/19 17:18
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Re: 2 Jersey City shooting incidents 30 minutes apart
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bodhipooh wrote:

There is SO MUCH WRONG with your post. There is no such thing as a successful program to reduce gun violence in Chicago.

Just this past weekend, they had 47 people shot and wounded, and 2 homicides. That's 1 person per hour. You call that a success?? If anyone wants to see what a hellhole Chicago has become (which shows no sign of improving, or abating) check out this site, which is tracking the mayhem in the Windy City:
.


And yet that hellhole is not even in the top ten in the US, nor is it really getting worse (kind of stagnated at about the same level in 04 and half of the highest rate, with '12 ticking up a bit but subsequent years back down to that 04 baseline).

Saying it's become a hellhole is a bit inflammatory when it's hovering right around the lowest murder rate it has had in the last 45 years or so.

Chicago has a lot of issues, but it's hard to make the case that it has been getting significantly worse in recent years.

http://heyjackass.com/yearly-murder-trend-1957-2013/




I guess it is all about perspective, and what you choose to believe. Chicago has one third time the population of NYC, yet it managed to have 33% more total murders, making it 4 times more likely to get murdered there as compared to NYC. When compared to JC, you are twice as likely to be murdered in Chicago. So, Chicago manages to not break into the esteemed club of veritable murder capitals in the US and you see that as proof that it is not a hellhole? Whatever works for you.

And, by the way, an stagnating murder rate is not something to crow about, when just about every other major city has seen declining murder rates for the past decade, and year on year.

Among the 10 largest cities in the US, Chicago is second only to Philadelphia. Among the 20 largest cities in the US, it is third, surpassed only by Detroit (duh!) and Philadelphia. In that top 20 group, the next closest city has a murder rate that is a full third lower.

Posted on: 2015/5/19 16:57
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Re: 2 Jersey City shooting incidents 30 minutes apart
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moobycow wrote:
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bodhipooh wrote:

There is SO MUCH WRONG with your post. There is no such thing as a successful program to reduce gun violence in Chicago.

Just this past weekend, they had 47 people shot and wounded, and 2 homicides. That's 1 person per hour. You call that a success?? If anyone wants to see what a hellhole Chicago has become (which shows no sign of improving, or abating) check out this site, which is tracking the mayhem in the Windy City:
.


And yet that hellhole is not even in the top ten in the US, nor is it really getting worse (kind of stagnated at about the same level in 04 and half of the highest rate, with '12 ticking up a bit but subsequent years back down to that 04 baseline).

Saying it's become a hellhole is a bit inflammatory when it's hovering right around the lowest murder rate it has had in the last 45 years or so.

Chicago has a lot of issues, but it's hard to make the case that it has been getting significantly worse in recent years.

http://heyjackass.com/yearly-murder-trend-1957-2013/

maybe they should have the national guard on every corner in chicago, isntall cctv cameras and lock those with illegal guns up for life (after 2nd violation - similar to california's 3 strikes law)

Posted on: 2015/5/19 16:37
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Re: 2 Jersey City shooting incidents 30 minutes apart
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bodhipooh wrote:

There is SO MUCH WRONG with your post. There is no such thing as a successful program to reduce gun violence in Chicago.

Just this past weekend, they had 47 people shot and wounded, and 2 homicides. That's 1 person per hour. You call that a success?? If anyone wants to see what a hellhole Chicago has become (which shows no sign of improving, or abating) check out this site, which is tracking the mayhem in the Windy City:
.


And yet that hellhole is not even in the top ten in the US, nor is it really getting worse (kind of stagnated at about the same level in 04 and half of the highest rate, with '12 ticking up a bit but subsequent years back down to that 04 baseline).

Saying it's become a hellhole is a bit inflammatory when it's hovering right around the lowest murder rate it has had in the last 45 years or so.

Chicago has a lot of issues, but it's hard to make the case that it has been getting significantly worse in recent years.

http://heyjackass.com/yearly-murder-trend-1957-2013/


Posted on: 2015/5/19 16:11
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Re: 2 Jersey City shooting incidents 30 minutes apart
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Here's the evaluation of the Cease Fire/Cure Violence program in Chicago, and other neighborhoods in other cities. I didn't say that the program was implemented across all Chicago.
http://cureviolence.org/results/scientific-evaluations/


The story about Richmond is one case study that can help others, myself included, give some more thought to how, why, where gun violence occurs. Similar statistics have been found in other cities, where the gun violence can be attributed to very small groups of people. Another example, from Chicago, "70 percent of nonfatal injuries occur within networks containing 6 percent of the city's population." http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277953614000987

The fact that the cities are different doesn't make it useless, unless you say learning and thinking is useless. It helps us ask different questions, such as, who is actually doing this, how many of them, and how can this be prevented?


Posted on: 2015/5/19 15:54
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Re: 2 Jersey City shooting incidents 30 minutes apart
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marullos88 wrote:

There are some programs that have been successful in reducing gun violence, look up cease fire in Chicago. They use public health tactics, including marketing campaigns, street outreach, community awareness and mentorship to target the very specific people, usually very young,who engage in this violence.?

In Richmond California the y found that 70% of shootings came from the same 17 individuals. Which makes sense to me because I've met a lot of my neighbors and they're great, so I was wondering who the hell are the people who are engaged in the shootings?? It's a very, very small minority. And they seem to benefit from targeted social work interventions. Would love to see something like that here. But wonder how innovative the city is willing to be.



There is SO MUCH WRONG with your post. There is no such thing as a successful program to reduce gun violence in Chicago.

Just this past weekend, they had 47 people shot and wounded, and 2 homicides. That's 1 person per hour. You call that a success?? If anyone wants to see what a hellhole Chicago has become (which shows no sign of improving, or abating) check out this site, which is tracking the mayhem in the Windy City:

Hey, Jackass

Here is a quick snapshot of the numbers:

May To Date
Shot & Killed: 15
Shot & Wounded: 158
Total Shot: 173
Total Homicides: 19

Last Week (Sun ? Sat)
Shot & Killed: 6
Shot & Wounded: 73
Total Shot: 79
Total Homicides: 6

Year To Date
Shot & Killed: 121
Shot & Wounded: 721
Total Shot: 842
Total Homicides: 142


As for using the stats from Richmond (CA) and overlaying your (singular) personal experience to that, you have made a classic logic blunder: a generalization based on a small sample size. First of all, Richmond has TWICE the land area of JC, but less than 40% the population of JC. JC has a population that is 8 TIMES that of Richmond, CA. In other words, they are completely different cities, with completely different compositions and dynamics at play. Comparing the two is useless.

Posted on: 2015/5/19 12:58
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Re: 2 Jersey City shooting incidents 30 minutes apart
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marullos88 wrote:

There are some programs that have been successful in reducing gun violence, look up cease fire in Chicago. They use public health tactics, including marketing campaigns, street outreach, community awareness and mentorship to target the very specific people, usually very young,who engage in this violence.?

In Richmond California the y found that 70% of shootings came from the same 17 individuals. Which makes sense to me because I've met a lot of my neighbors and they're great, so I was wondering who the hell are the people who are engaged in the shootings?? It's a very, very small minority. And they seem to benefit from targeted social work interventions. Would love to see something like that here. But wonder how innovative the city is willing to be.



if your theory and numbers are right, the targeted social intervention should be upon arrest for felony gun charges, no bail, quick trial and consequently long prison sentences.

Posted on: 2015/5/19 3:08
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Re: 2 Jersey City shooting incidents 30 minutes apart
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There are some programs that have been successful in reducing gun violence, look up cease fire in Chicago. They use public health tactics, including marketing campaigns, street outreach, community awareness and mentorship to target the very specific people, usually very young,who engage in this violence.?

In Richmond California the y found that 70% of shootings came from the same 17 individuals. Which makes sense to me because I've met a lot of my neighbors and they're great, so I was wondering who the hell are the people who are engaged in the shootings?? It's a very, very small minority. And they seem to benefit from targeted social work interventions. Would love to see something like that here. But wonder how innovative the city is willing to be.


Posted on: 2015/5/19 1:52
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Re: 2 Jersey City shooting incidents 30 minutes apart
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Monroe wrote:
Another drive by was reported last month as I recall. It's too bad, because if the area cleaned up it could be quite nice.
i agree the area could be quite nice..but nothing will change until the government stats locking away these felons for 20-30 years


Then we will hear more cries of racism.
i think the police need to respect everyone's consitutional rights, but if one is caught with weapons (maybe they get sometype of approval before stop and frisk) or have metal detectors or body scanners)...anyway, i read somehwere that 70% of the murders in chicago are committed by african-americans who comprise only 33% of chicago's population, and we knew that it is mostly men who commit murders..so 17% of the population doing 67% of the killing


So we'd put the "body scanners" in the park?
why not? they do it at clubs, city hall, police stations

Posted on: 2015/5/19 1:49
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Re: 2 Jersey City shooting incidents 30 minutes apart
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hero69 wrote:
Quote:

JCMan8 wrote:
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hero69 wrote:
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Monroe wrote:
Another drive by was reported last month as I recall. It's too bad, because if the area cleaned up it could be quite nice.
i agree the area could be quite nice..but nothing will change until the government stats locking away these felons for 20-30 years


Then we will hear more cries of racism.
i think the police need to respect everyone's consitutional rights, but if one is caught with weapons (maybe they get sometype of approval before stop and frisk) or have metal detectors or body scanners)...anyway, i read somehwere that 70% of the murders in chicago are committed by african-americans who comprise only 33% of chicago's population, and we knew that it is mostly men who commit murders..so 17% of the population doing 67% of the killing


So we'd put the "body scanners" in the park?

Posted on: 2015/5/19 0:59
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Re: 2 Jersey City shooting incidents 30 minutes apart
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JCMan8 wrote:
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hero69 wrote:
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Monroe wrote:
Another drive by was reported last month as I recall. It's too bad, because if the area cleaned up it could be quite nice.
i agree the area could be quite nice..but nothing will change until the government stats locking away these felons for 20-30 years


Then we will hear more cries of racism.
i think the police need to respect everyone's consitutional rights, but if one is caught with weapons (maybe they get sometype of approval before stop and frisk) or have metal detectors or body scanners)...anyway, i read somehwere that 70% of the murders in chicago are committed by african-americans who comprise only 33% of chicago's population, and we knew that it is mostly men who commit murders..so 17% of the population doing 67% of the killing

Posted on: 2015/5/19 0:35
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Re: 2 Jersey City shooting incidents 30 minutes apart
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hero69 wrote:
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Monroe wrote:
Another drive by was reported last month as I recall. It's too bad, because if the area cleaned up it could be quite nice.
i agree the area could be quite nice..but nothing will change until the government stats locking away these felons for 20-30 years


Then we will hear more cries of racism.

Posted on: 2015/5/19 0:22
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Re: 2 Jersey City shooting incidents 30 minutes apart
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Monroe wrote:
Another drive by was reported last month as I recall. It's too bad, because if the area cleaned up it could be quite nice.
i agree the area could be quite nice..but nothing will change until the government stats locking away these felons for 20-30 years

Posted on: 2015/5/18 22:29
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Re: 2 Jersey City shooting incidents 30 minutes apart
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Another drive by was reported last month as I recall. It's too bad, because if the area cleaned up it could be quite nice.

Posted on: 2015/5/18 22:24
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Re: 2 Jersey City shooting incidents 30 minutes apart
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This is the fourth shooting in Arlington park since February but the only to have made the news. The neighborhood association is meeting with the police captain to strategize. Hope we can come up with something good because this is crazy. A week ago the shooting happened on a Friday night with the park full o children playing.

Posted on: 2015/5/18 22:04
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2 Jersey City shooting incidents 30 minutes apart
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Ron Zeitlinger | The Jersey Journal

Less than 30 minutes later, police responded to the intersection of Bramhall and Ocean avenues on reports of shots fired. Police eventually found shell casings from two different guns on Grand Street, police said.

One of the shots struck and got lodged in the windshield of a car parked on Grand Street.

Story

Posted on: 2015/5/18 20:42
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