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Re: WTC and JC home prices/rents
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Interesting. Looks like they acquired at least 50 in the last year.

Posted on: 2012/9/26 18:37
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Re: WTC and JC home prices/rents
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Here is the company buying up the housing:

http://dixonleasing.com/

This is the financial company that owns them.

http://www.dixon.com.au/Home.aspx

Doesn't seem like a Hedge Fund, but it is a big financial company buying up the stock of single families. Talked to a Realtor about it (looking to rent one of the houses) and she thinks the plan is to just rent and not resell down the road, but I got the impression she was just guessing.

Posted on: 2012/9/26 17:35
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Re: WTC and JC home prices/rents
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Quote:

vindication15 wrote:
Nice try but on zillow, you can't sort the difference between coops and condos and coops are notoriously hard to sell which pulls down the price of condo units.


Do you know what percent of the market the co-ops are and why YOY they are not recovering while condos and single family houses are?

Quote:

I was talking about "The Grove" on columbus. The upper units have sold and the lower units have not - they will be rentals.


The Grove does not have only a few units left, the whole 2nd floor is available for rent.

Quote:
The natural progression of a real estate transaction:

Homeowners put the units on the market at above what they expect to get

Buyers offer below what the homeowners expect to sell for

Unit gets bought at some in-between price.

When units are closer to the homeowner's asking price, homeowners win.

Many units have sold very close, if not at, asking price.


Maybe in the old days, but I think for condos in the current market it goes like this
Developer/Owner puts unit on market
No bids
Developer/Owner lowers price
No bids
Developer/owner pulls listing
Wait a few weeks
Repeat until ask gets low enough to bid that it trades near ask.

Posted on: 2012/9/26 17:31
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Re: WTC and JC home prices/rents
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Quote:

bill wrote:

Seriously, you are a riot. Writing these blanket statement with nothing to back it up.

You are telling me a regional bank that gives out mortgages is going to base their lending rules based on the whole country vs local? LOL


Actually Vindication is pretty much right about this. Even most local lenders don't hold a large percentage of loans in their portfolio and end up reselling them. Since Fannie and Freddie buy most of these loans, and their standards are essentially national, there isn't all that much variation in underwriting standards across regions.

Posted on: 2012/9/26 16:59
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Re: WTC and JC home prices/rents
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Bill,

Nice try but on zillow, you can't sort the difference between coops and condos and coops are notoriously hard to sell which pulls down the price of condo units.

I was talking about "The Grove" on columbus. The upper units have sold and the lower units have not - they will be rentals.

And yes, loans to developers are based on national trends.....

Quote:
bill wrote: If DTJC was doing very well, units would be selling over asking price with multiple bids, not below their asking price. Also, just because it closes near the ask, it doesn't necessarily mean anything about the market. In many cases the unit is offered then withdrawn then offered again with lower and lower prices until finally it sells.


calm down there, this isn't NYC. people are buying, they are not in bidding wars.

The natural progression of a real estate transaction:

Homeowners put the units on the market at above what they expect to get

Buyers offer below what the homeowners expect to sell for

Unit gets bought at some in-between price.

When units are closer to the homeowner's asking price, homeowners win.

Many units have sold very close, if not at, asking price.

Posted on: 2012/9/26 16:57
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Re: WTC and JC home prices/rents
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vindication15 wrote:
Banks also don't develop rules for specific regions but base it on the national market. Nationally, markets are terrible but regionally, downtown jersey city, is doing very well. Inventory is low, demand is high, units/homes in dtjc are selling close to, if not, at asking price.

These rentals will be converted into condos once the natl' market picks up.


Seriously, you are a riot. Writing these blanket statement with nothing to back it up.

You are telling me a bank will view financing a developer in Las Vegas or Miami the same way as for one in Manhattan?

If DTJC was doing very well, units would be selling over asking price with multiple bids, not below their asking price.
Also, just because it closes near the ask, it doesn't necessarily mean anything about the market. In many cases the unit is offered then withdrawn then offered again with lower and lower prices until finally it sells.

Posted on: 2012/9/26 16:28
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Re: WTC and JC home prices/rents
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yorkster wrote:
I heard that there is a hedge fund that has been buying up all the brownstones in DTJC.


Anyone have more info on this?

Posted on: 2012/9/26 16:14
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Re: WTC and JC home prices/rents
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Quote:

You're right Bill. Because you identified properties that can't sell, this is a huge crisis.


I never said it was a crisis, but I did identify 3 properties in various parts of downtown that had supply and you have not presented anything factual to dispute this.

Quote:


Okay, let's get real with facts. Look at the zillow home price index:

http://www.zillow.com/local-info/NJ-07302-home-value/r_60639/

downtown increases Y-o-Y led any area in JC. Downtown is up 3.2% from last year actually...


Yeah why don't we get real with facts, Downtown up 3.2 % but how are downtown 1br and 2br condos doing? Well, 1br's are down 0.6% and 2br's are unchanged. Doesn't sound too good when the market overall is up.

Quote:

Why did the new construction switch to rentals? Umm, because they had like 3 units left and sold the rest.


What buildings are you talking about? To my understanding the finished condo buildings on Columbus and on Morris have become all rental units managed by the same company.

So in conclusion, it seems Vindi's reading comprehension could use some work and he only likes to reference statistics that push his agenda. I now know to read his crap with a grain of salt.

Posted on: 2012/9/26 16:05
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Re: WTC and JC home prices/rents
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Supply is below demand? Are you sure? If so, why would that new construction on Columbus switch to rental units from condos?

Also for your consideration, I have been tracking 1200-1300 sq ft 2ba/2br in Waldo lofts the last few years. This is what various units have been offered at, notice the downtrend in price/sqft.

5/15/09 $596 sqft unsold
11/07/09 $572 unsold
2/24/12 $435 SOLD
5/16/12 $485 unsold
8/17/12 $460 unsold

According to their website 17/82 units are available which means ~ 20% vacancy rate. This suggests supply is greater than demand?

Is real estate regional in downtown Jersey City as well? There is a building in Paulus Hook, called La Coppia that seems to have gone rental as well.


I can't speak to the specific desirability of Waldo Lofts, but even within a smallish area like Downtown JC there can be many factors that make a building desirable or not (location, finishes, layouts, taxes, etc.)

Resales have been very strong downtown this year. The peak selling season is coming to an end, but over the summer there were typically multiple offers on most condo units. I was tracking the market closely as we sold our unit - and actually got 3 offers within 3 days. (One came in within 12 hours of being on the market... we decided to give people a few more days and ended up getting those offers after 20 showings).

New buildings may be facing issues as the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac criteria to approve condos are pretty strict, andf they typically need 50-75% of units to be sold before they will finalize a loan. This is of course a catch 22, as no one can buy a unit until most of the units have been sold.

So most new buildings will be rentals despite underlying demand, meaning a small supply of resales will be the only option for most buyers.

Posted on: 2012/9/26 13:26
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Re: WTC and JC home prices/rents
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I heard that there is a hedge fund that has been buying up all the brownstones in DTJC.

Posted on: 2012/9/26 12:43
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They are worried that developers will not be able to find "qualified" buyers. Because of more stringent lending standards, many buyers need to either make a much bigger downpayment or have higher incomes.

Banks also don't develop rules for specific regions but base it on the national market. Nationally, markets are terrible but regionally, downtown jersey city, is doing very well. Inventory is low, demand is high, units/homes in dtjc are selling close to, if not, at asking price.

These rentals will be converted into condos once the natl' market picks up.

Posted on: 2012/9/26 12:24
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Quote:

vindication15 wrote:
The reason why new construction in the area are rentals instead of condos has nothing to do with demand for condos. It's about what banks are willing to finance. They are much more willing to finance developers building rentals because it's less risky..


What is the risk that banks are concerned about if it is not low demand for condos?

Posted on: 2012/9/26 12:04
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Re: WTC and JC home prices/rents
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Bumped into our real estate agent over the weekend and struck up a conversation ~ brownstones in the downtown are selling briskly and close to full asking price as there's 0% inventory right now.

We have a fairly modest mortgage on ours and yet two years ago could barely refinance as the referenced comps that the bank was using seemed to be the bottom of the barrel (my brick home completely rehabbed and they were pulling comps for wooden sided buildings that were in need of complete rehab).

I guess that realtors are always looking through the windshield, while the banks are always glancing in the rear view mirror.

Posted on: 2012/9/26 10:56
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You're right Bill. Because you identified properties that can't sell, this is a huge crisis.

Okay, let's get real with facts. Look at the zillow home price index:

http://www.zillow.com/local-info/NJ-07302-home-value/r_60639/

downtown increases Y-o-Y led any area in JC. Downtown is up 3.2% from last year actually...

Why did the new construction switch to rentals? Umm, because they had like 3 units left and sold the rest. If you have ever done condo buying, you know the last units are the least desirable ones or the most expensive ones on the 40th floor of a high rise. Since the properties on Columbus are not high rises, it was probably the least desirable units with no view or very small units. The point is they sold the majority of units.

The reason why new construction in the area are rentals instead of condos has nothing to do with demand for condos. It's about what banks are willing to finance. They are much more willing to finance developers building rentals because it's less risky.

Yes, so just because you pick out one sucky building in downtown that has units that don't sell, does not mean downtown is not a hot market for condos right now. Overall, 2br/2ba and 1brs are in great demand.

Posted on: 2012/9/26 4:34
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Quote:

vindication15 wrote:

I also love how Bill posts an article about NJ to make it seem like that applies to Jersey City. The truth is, real estate is regional. Jersey City (especially downtown), similar to NYC but to a lesser degree, are doing great considering the market conditions. Actually supply in downtown jersey city, especially in the 1br-2br condos remain well below demand. Supply of Single family houses and townhouses in downtown are also below demand.


Supply is below demand? Are you sure? If so, why would that new construction on Columbus switch to rental units from condos?

Also for your consideration, I have been tracking 1200-1300 sq ft 2ba/2br in Waldo lofts the last few years. This is what various units have been offered at, notice the downtrend in price/sqft.

5/15/09 $596 sqft unsold
11/07/09 $572 unsold
2/24/12 $435 SOLD
5/16/12 $485 unsold
8/17/12 $460 unsold

According to their website 17/82 units are available which means ~ 20% vacancy rate. This suggests supply is greater than demand?

Is real estate regional in downtown Jersey City as well? There is a building in Paulus Hook, called La Coppia that seems to have gone rental as well.

Posted on: 2012/9/24 23:20
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bill wrote:
Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Wendell and Margret Brady haven?t
paid their mortgage in more than three years, withholding the
money amid a foreclosure dispute on the couple?s 11-bedroom house in Morristown, New Jersey.
The Victorian home, built in 1887 and owned by the retired
couple for 38 years, is part of the growing backlog of
properties facing repossession in the state, which now has the second-highest serious delinquency rate in the U.S. While
shrinking nationwide, the pipeline of distressed real estate, or shadow inventory, is also growing in New York, Connecticut,
Maine and Pennsylvania because of state laws that slow the
foreclosure process. The Bradys heard nothing from their lender
from May 2011, until a letter arrived in the mail last week.
?This was like going back to day one,? said Margret
Brady, 77, after she and her husband received on Sept. 15 the
certified letter saying they must pay $223,730 by the end of the
month or face losing the house. ?It was like we hadn?t gone
through any of the stuff of the last three years.?


Wow. A couple has owned an 11-bedroom (!) house in Morristown for 38 years, and they still owe mortgage money. They have had a dispute with the bank (they probably were short on funds), so they stopped paying. They still owe close to a quarter mil. I sympathize with them like I do with Romney.

Posted on: 2012/9/24 20:21
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hero69 wrote: seems to me that home prices are doing ok (perhaps too well). i look at prices and wonder how anyone can ask for some of the prices they're seeking and who is buying.


Really? What if someone said you were making too much income? Or wonder how people pay you to do the work that you do?

I also love how Bill posts an article about NJ to make it seem like that applies to Jersey City. The truth is, real estate is regional. Jersey City (especially downtown), similar to NYC but to a lesser degree, are doing great considering the market conditions. Actually supply in downtown jersey city, especially in the 1br-2br condos remain well below demand. Supply of Single family houses and townhouses in downtown are also below demand.

You WANT rents to be extremely high and property values to be high. This brings economic development to an area.

Posted on: 2012/9/24 19:58
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Wire: Bloomberg News (BN) Date: Sep 18 2012 10:29:48
New Jersey Housing Suffers as Defaults Exceed Nevada: Mortgages


By John Gittelsohn and Prashant Gopal
Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Wendell and Margret Brady haven?t
paid their mortgage in more than three years, withholding the
money amid a foreclosure dispute on the couple?s 11-bedroom
house in Morristown, New Jersey.
The Victorian home, built in 1887 and owned by the retired
couple for 38 years, is part of the growing backlog of
properties facing repossession in the state, which now has the
second-highest serious delinquency rate in the U.S. While
shrinking nationwide, the pipeline of distressed real estate, or
shadow inventory, is also growing in New York, Connecticut,
Maine and Pennsylvania because of state laws that slow the
foreclosure process. The Bradys heard nothing from their lender
from May 2011, until a letter arrived in the mail last week.
?This was like going back to day one,? said Margret
Brady, 77, after she and her husband received on Sept. 15 the
certified letter saying they must pay $223,730 by the end of the
month or face losing the house. ?It was like we hadn?t gone
through any of the stuff of the last three years.?
New Jersey?s judicial review of all foreclosures, which
delays seizures to help borrowers, threatens to hold down prices
for years as properties remain subject to repossession and then
may be sold at a discount. That?s buffeting a housing market
already hurt by unemployment that?s risen to a 35-year high.

Passing Nevada

The state passed Nevada in the second quarter in the rate
of homeowners with seriously delinquent loans -- those 90 days
late or in foreclosure -- according to the Mortgage Bankers
Association. Only Florida had a higher rate of serious
delinquencies, and that fell 1.2 percentage points from a year
earlier to 17.5 percent of mortgages. In comparison, New
Jersey?s rose 1.3 percentage points to 12.7 percent.
While home values increased in July from a year earlier in
42 states, New Jersey prices fell 0.8 percent, according to
CoreLogic, a real estate services company based in Santa Ana,
California.
?Housing is an albatross around New Jersey?s economy,
which is one of the weakest in the country,? Mark Zandi, chief
economist at Moody?s Analytics Inc. in West Chester,
Pennsylvania, said in an e-mail.
Standard & Poor?s revised its outlook on New Jersey today
to negative from stable, citing the state?s optimistic revenue
assumptions and longer-term spending pressures, including
pension obligations and Medicaid funding.
Serious delinquencies as of June 30 were up 6 percent from
a year earlier in New York, Connecticut and Maryland, and up 5
percent in Pennsylvania and the District of Columbia, the
Washington-based Mortgage Bankers said on Aug. 9. The rate fell
by 27 percent in Arizona, 24 percent in California and 14
percent in Nevada, among states worst hit by the housing crisis.

Shadow Inventory

?Shadow inventory is falling in much of the country --
except for the Northeast,? said Zandi. ?The implication is
that house prices will be much weaker in the Northeast in coming
years as these distressed properties eventually get sold.?
U.S. foreclosure filings plunged in late 2010 after
attorneys general in all 50 states started investigating
allegations of faulty and fraudulent paperwork used to repossess
homes. The country?s biggest banks, including JPMorgan Chase &
Co. and Bank of America Corp., agreed to a $25 billion
settlement in February.
In New Jersey, where about 60,000 foreclosures started
since January 2008 still await resolution, borrowers in the
foreclosure process haven?t made a payment for an average of 934
days, according to Lender Processing Services Inc. New York, at
953 days, and Florida, at 938 days, are the only states with
longer time frames. The U.S. average is 742 days.

(I cut the rest, focused more on the Brady's vs the big picture)

Posted on: 2012/9/24 19:48
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Re: WTC and JC home prices/rents
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Area home prices will be affected more by the rising price of Manhattan RE. The general feeling is we are due for an economic rebound this will have a greater effect on home prices than the revival of the WTC area. The stock market is at a record high as a harbinger of things to come.

Posted on: 2012/9/24 19:45
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seems to me that home prices are doing ok (perhaps too well). i look at prices and wonder how anyone can ask for some of the prices they're seeking and who is buying.

Posted on: 2012/9/24 19:20
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Quote:

Dahood wrote:
Do you guys see a significant appreciation of home values and rents once the tower is complete? Especially along the NWK-WTC and HOB-WTC lines?


No

Posted on: 2012/9/24 17:07
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The power of the World Trade Center to reshape real estate prices is being overstated here. Certainly it contributes to the skyline views of apartments facing the skyline, but those units already have higher rents and asking prices; the addition of one completed tower to a skyline that already is impressive just isn't that important.

As far as jobs and "relocations," the effects of the World Tarde Center will again be very minimal. For one thing, the tower isn't opening all at once. Tenants will move in slowly over the course of several years. Many of these corporations will already be in the city, many already downtown. Even for employers moving from midtown, like Conde Nast, The vast majority of workers are going to be established in a home and a community, whether its the suburbs or Manhattan or Brooklyn or Jersey city, and whatever their commutes are might change slightly, but its unlikely they end up moving. Their commutes might change; suburbanites arriving in Penn Station might take the PATH from Newark and someone from the Upper West Side might take the express train rather the local, but overall workers are mostly already established in their lives and shifting office locations a few dozen blocks doesn't really change anything.

Posted on: 2012/9/24 16:06
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I've heard that there is a short supply of the 2br/2bth condos, these are the most desirable units.
These have the shortest time on the market and are the best for appreciation.

Posted on: 2012/9/13 18:26
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wtc is already having an affect on property values. Inc ondo units facing wtc, the value is significantly higher by as much as 30-40k.

downtown still has a long road ahead of itself if it is to be considered in the same league as brooklyn heights. Start with cleaning up our famed "restaurant row."

Posted on: 2012/9/13 17:03
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ianmac47 wrote:
Quote:

jmiz wrote:
The upward trend in property value and rents isn't new.


Is this 2007?



Out of context much? 2008 is a blip on the radar when you look long-term. Try reading the whole paragraph.

Posted on: 2012/9/13 16:40
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jmiz wrote:
The upward trend in property value and rents isn't new.


Is this 2007?

Posted on: 2012/9/13 15:50
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If it all gets leased, it will be like 2.6 million SF of office space just got added to Downtown Jersey City, minus the parking and cars. Housing with reasonable pricing (for now) within one or two PATH stops of there? I don't see how it could not put upward pressure on rents and prices anywhere near the PATH, especially the Grove, Pavonia and Exchange Pl stops (and others too).

Posted on: 2012/9/13 14:41
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The completion of the WTC coincides with Jersey City becoming a viable alternative to Brooklyn and Manhattan.

The new WTC is adding jobs to lower Manhattan. New jobs = new or relocating employees = more demand for easy access to lower Manhattan.

My neighbors are long-time downtown Jersey City residents. When they purchased the three story walk-up that we're in now, they paid about $10,000. That same building (they own two) is now worth over $1 million each. The upward trend in property value and rents isn't new.

Posted on: 2012/9/13 14:40
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WTC and JC home prices/rents
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Do you guys see a significant appreciation of home values and rents once the tower is complete? Especially along the NWK-WTC and HOB-WTC lines?

The Infrastructure
Despite having spectacular views, the WTC?s piece de resistance might be the infrastructure. There will be an 800,000 square foot, multi-billion-dollar transportation hub on the WTC site. It has the capacity to ferry a quarter million people a day to their destinations across the city, according to Port Authority. Its PATH station connects to cities in New Jersey such Hoboken, Newark and Jersey City, while the subway grants access to much of New York City. ?
Perhaps missing out on the advantages would be those commuting from suburbs via the Long Island Railroad, Metro-North Railroad and parts of New Jersey Transit.?
Moss said the ease of access from cities in New Jersey like Hoboken and points across NYC may appeal to a younger generation of workers.

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Posted on: 2012/9/13 12:25
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