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The Upcoming RE Market Plunge
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It'll be nationwide. People will be losing their homes left & right. Many will simultaneously declare bankruptcy, leaving the whole national economy teetering on the verge of failure. Home prices will drop 30 to 70 % depending on location. People will be blowing their brains out.

I'll be selling bullets.

Posted on: 2007/8/9 2:44
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Re: So much for all of you folks who predicted a JC/NYC RE Crash
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Read it & weep flippers...

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The true cost of owning a home - Your mortgage payments are only a fraction of what you'll pay out after you become a homeowner. The total? For this writer, $43,555 in four years, not counting house payments.

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Posted on: 2007/6/21 4:09

Edited by Webmaster on 2007/8/21 3:04:56
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Re: So much for all of you folks who predicted a JC/NYC RE Crash
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This one's for all you over-leveraged, over-speculated, overly smug imbeciles - It's a blood bath

Quote:
The worst is yet to come for the U.S. housing market.

The jump in 30-year mortgage rates by more than a half a percentage point to 6.74 percent in the past five weeks is putting a crimp on borrowers with the best credit just as a crackdown in subprime lending standards limits the pool of qualified buyers. The national median home price is poised for its first annual decline since the Great Depression, and the supply of unsold homes is at a record 4.2 million, according to the National Association of Realtors.

“It’s a blood bath,” said Mark Kiesel, executive vice president of Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co., the manager of $668 billion in bond funds. “We’re talking about a two- to three-year downturn that will take a whole host of characters with it, from job creation to consumer confidence. Eventually it will take the stock market and corporate profit.”


It’s Official: The Crash of the U.S. Economy has begun

Quote:
It’s official. Mark your calendars. The crash of the U.S. economy has begun. It was announced the morning of Wednesday, June 13, 2007, by economic writers Steven Pearlstein and Robert Samuelson in the pages of the Washington Post, one of the foremost house organs of the U.S. monetary elite.

Pearlstein’s column was titled, “The Takeover Boom, About to Go Bust” and concerned the extraordinary amount of debt vs. operating profits of companies currently subject to leveraged buyouts.

In language remarkably alarmist for the usually ultra-bland pages of the Post, Pearlstein wrote, “It is impossible to predict when the magic moment will be reached and everyone finally realizes that the prices being paid for these companies, and the debt taken on to support the acquisitions, are unsustainable. When that happens, it won't be pretty. Across the board, stock prices and company valuations will fall. Banks will announce painful write-offs, some hedge funds will close their doors, and private-equity funds will report disappointing returns. Some companies will be forced into bankruptcy or restructuring.”

Further, “Falling stock prices will cause companies to reduce their hiring and capital spending while governments will be forced to raise taxes or reduce services, as revenue from capital gains taxes declines. And the combination of reduced wealth and higher interest rates will finally cause consumers to pull back on their debt-financed consumption.


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Posted on: 2007/6/20 22:02
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Re: So much for all of you folks who predicted a JC/NYC RE Crash
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Posted on: 2007/6/19 21:08
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Re: So much for all of you folks who predicted a JC/NYC RE Crash
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I'm not disputing your posts because I'm AGREEING WITH YOUR STUPID EFFING POST. BUT YOU'RE A COMPLETE JACKASS. GO AWAY!

Posted on: 2007/6/17 17:38
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Re: So much for all of you folks who predicted a JC/NYC RE Crash
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You remind me of preachers on the subway, forcing Christianity hell and condemnation on people. And I don't know what your message is. Are you sure you are talking to the right audience?

Maybe you should go here if you want to preach real estate:
http://www.wirednewyork.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=26

Posted on: 2007/6/17 17:32
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Re: So much for all of you folks who predicted a JC/NYC RE Crash
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Don't shoot the messenger!

Gotta love all these ad hominem attacks by people intellectually unable to dispute my posts...

P.S. I'm just looking at LI, and thus far I've seen several 4-5 Bd. houses with boat-slips for equivalent prices of 2-3 Bd. "Luxury" condos in JC, so yes I'm tempted, but I'm also patient.

I'm not going from rental back to ownership til' prices are back to the historical trend, which BTW, is 2001 prices

Can you say arbitrage? I knew you could...

Posted on: 2007/6/17 17:26

Edited by TaZMaNiO on 2007/6/17 17:49:35
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Re: The number of people falling behind on their mortgage payments or going into foreclosure in New
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Quote:

Scottacus wrote:
Quote:
Yeah, that'd be a great way to bury the information so no potential suckers...errr, I mean RE buyers, might read current news on the RE crash


Or maybe it would just be a way so that people who aren't obsessed with real estate can carry on other discussions on JCList without having to wade though 90 real estate related threads. It's not like this board is primarily focused on real estate.

Threads exist for a reason -- so that people who are interested in a topic can find it and those who aren't don't have to wade through irrelevant messages.


You're right, "Threads exist for a reason" and my that's why I kept them separate

Besides, why would I post NEWS in an old thread that would take 30+ minutes to read-thru unless I wanted to bury it?

Oh yeah, that would be the RE fluff police's motives, hoping to keep the happy talk going...

Posted on: 2007/6/17 15:54
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Re: The number of people falling behind on their mortgage payments or going into foreclosure in New York
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Quote:
Yeah, that'd be a great way to bury the information so no potential suckers...errr, I mean RE buyers, might read current news on the RE crash


Or maybe it would just be a way so that people who aren't obsessed with real estate can carry on other discussions on JCList without having to wade though 90 real estate related threads. It's not like this board is primarily focused on real estate.

Threads exist for a reason -- so that people who are interested in a topic can find it and those who aren't don't have to wade through irrelevant messages.

Posted on: 2007/6/17 1:55
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Re: The number of people falling behind on their mortgage payments or going into foreclosure in New
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Quote:

Scottacus wrote:
I think the name thing was more of a play on words than a non sequitur.

I do agree with skwirriking that since there is already a (quite long) thread on the health of the RE market, it would probably be nice to keep posts on that subject in that thread.


Yeah, that'd be a great way to bury the information so no potential suckers...errr, I mean RE buyers, might read current news on the RE crash

Posted on: 2007/6/17 1:15
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Re: The number of people falling behind on their mortgage payments or going into foreclosure in New York
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I think the name thing was more of a play on words than a non sequitur.

I do agree with skwirriking that since there is already a (quite long) thread on the health of the RE market, it would probably be nice to keep posts on that subject in that thread.

Posted on: 2007/6/16 22:36
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Re: So much for all of you folks who predicted a JC/NYC RE Crash
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Posted on: 2007/6/16 17:39
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Re: The number of people falling behind on their mortgage payments or going into foreclosure in New
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Wanna good laugh, take a look at these RE cheerleaders and their blathering on Fox News back in 2006...

Real Estate Predictions 2007

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The two shills for the Real Estate Industry could not possibly come across any more sleazy, wormlike, and disgusting. Not only is their analysis incredibly stupid, their unprofessional behavior is embarrassing. This is who the RE industry trots out as their "economists". Pathetic.

Posted on: 2007/6/16 17:13
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Re: The number of people falling behind on their mortgage payments or going into foreclosure in New York
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Web Help for Getting a Mortgage the Criminal Way

NY TIMES
By JULIE CRESWELL
Published: June 16, 2007

Want to buy a home, but hampered by bad credit, an empty bank account or no job? No problem!
That may sound like an exaggeration of a late-night infomercial. But it is, in effect, the pitch that a number of Web sites are making to consumers, saying insolvent home shoppers can be made to look more attractive to lenders.
The sites, for example, offer better credit scores by hitching customers to a stranger’s credit card, or providing them pay stubs from a bogus company. One has even offered a well-stocked bank account to rent for a month or two.
Industry experts say these sites, which are relatively new, played a role in fueling the rampant mortgage fraud that has caused a huge spike in loan defaults in recent months because people bought homes they could not afford.
“There is a whole underground world — an online cottage industry — that has grown up that allows anyone to commit mortgage fraud,” said Constance Wilson, executive vice president at the financial fraud detection firm Interthinx.
Regulators and the mortgage industry are now vowing to crack down on aggressive lending practices that have led to a rising number of foreclosures. But that greater scrutiny, including lenders requiring more documentation than they have in the past, may actually increase demand for some of the services that these Web sites offer.
“We think these types of Web sites are increasing,” said Frank McKenna, chief fraud strategist at BasePoint Analytics, which helps banks and mortgage lenders identify fraudulent transactions.
Policing them is difficult, partly because it is unclear which laws, if any, the Web sites might be breaking (for their customers, though, the laws are clear — anybody who uses fake paycheck stubs or other false documents to misrepresent financial status to a bank or mortgage lender is committing fraud).
The people who operate these sites can also be hard to track down. At the first whiff of trouble, they can easily shut down and then quickly start a new Web site with a different name.
No statistics exist on the number of these Web sites and how many people use them, or whether any of the operators of such sites have been prosecuted.
An examination of loans made last year, including prime and subprime, in which some sort of fraud occurred, showed that incidents of false tax or financial statements had risen to 27 percent from 17 percent in 2002; fraudulent verifications of deposit had climbed to 22 percent from 15 percent four years ago; and false credit reports rose to 9 percent from 5 percent in 2002, according to a report issued this spring by the Mortgage Asset Research Institute based in Virginia.
If any documents were required, it was unclear whether the bogus documents were created by do-it-yourselfers or whether they turned to the products and services sold over the Internet.
Still, Joan E. Ferenczy, director of institutional investigations at Freddie Mac, said there had been a growing discussion in recent months among industry investigators about Web sites offering false identifications and income statements.
“Either it has been underground all along, or there has been a spike of activity there,” she said.
One service that appears to have grown exponentially in recent months, investigators say, are sites that offer to improve an individual’s credit score by adding them onto the credit cards of individuals with good credit scores and histories.
The practice, known as piggybacking, started innocently enough with individuals adding their spouses or children to their credit card accounts as authorized users.
One site, RaiseCreditScoreNow .com, offers to add a person to four separate $20,000 credit lines with 10 years of “perfect payments” for $4,000 (although they do not have access to the actual credit line). Doing so could increase an individual’s credit score by as much as 200 points in 90 days, the site says, and make the difference between qualifying for a home loan or not.
People with strong credit scores and a reliable payment history of at least 24 months on various credit accounts can be paid up to $1,000 for each person they add to the account as an authorized user, the site offers.
Several lawyers said it was unlikely that this practice was illegal, although many warned it could open the person renting out their credit card lines to fraud or identify theft. Attempts to contact the Web site were unsuccessful.
Another company, which operates SeasonedTradeLines.com, claims on its site to have an inventory of more than 100 real, verifiable credit card accounts with perfect payment histories dating back to 1974. The site asks: “How would your life be different with a 700+ credit score?”
A person answering the phone at the company declined to comment. “I’m not going to answer any questions,” he said. “I’m not going to give out any information.”
Last week, the Fair Isaac Corporation, the company that developed FICO credit scores, said it was trying to shut down piggybacking.
Starting in September, Fair Isaac said people who were added to someone else’s credit line would not benefit from the secondhand credit history in its formula, which is used by the three major credit bureaus.
“There is going to be no way to get around the new system,” said Ron Totaro, vice president for global scoring solutions at Fair Isaac.
One Web site that prompted mortgage regulators in Nevada to issue an alert to consumers and the mortgage industry two years ago offered to set up a bank account that could be “rented out” and verified to creditors or lenders at a cost of about 5 percent of the value of the assets. The people renting the assets did not actually have access to them.
While that site has disappeared, fraud experts say others have moved in to replace it.
“We’re seeing now a lot of checking accounts where funds are going in and out,” said Mr. McKenna of BasePoint. “Borrowers begin the month with $4 in the account and end the month with much, much more.”
Other sites offer help to people who need proof that they are working.
For $55, for example, the company that operates VerifyEmployment .net will ostensibly hire a person as an independent contractor, providing a paycheck stub showing an “advance,” with the corporate name and address. Another $25 will assure telephone verification of employment when a lender calls to check.
Last year, a Florida-based company that operated a Web site called NoveltyPaycheckStubs.com agreed to stop using the name of the payroll company ADP after it was sued in federal court by ADP for trademark infringement.
“It is plain that defendants are peddling counterfeit ADP earnings statements for others to use to engage in fraudulent financial transactions,” ADP claimed in its lawsuit.
NoveltyPaycheckStubs.com has since disappeared, but people looking for fake IDs or payroll stubs can still find them at FakePaycheckStubs .com.
While the site states the products are used for “entertainment purposes only,” phrases like “car loan” and “home loan” are sprinkled on the site. For $49.95, customers can receive a computer program to create paycheck stubs at home with their name and a fictional hourly salary. Attempts to contact someone at the site were unsuccessful.
For all the mentions of the pay stubs being only for entertainment, the site does offer one piece of legal advice: “I highly suggest you do not use logos from companies that are real on these stubs. I wouldn’t use any real company trademarks or copyrights either.”

Posted on: 2007/6/16 11:56
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The number of people falling behind on their mortgage payments or going into foreclosure in New York
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Posted on: 2007/6/16 2:18
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Interview with CNBC's housing market reporter Diana Olick
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HousingPANIC Exclusive

Quote:

Major hat-tip to Diana Olick at CNBC for doing five questions with HP. It's gotta be tough to do her job folks - by reporting the truth about housing, she's now being shunned by some of the REIC top dogs, and as she calls herself in the HP interview, is the "Usama Bin Laden of real estate" to the REIC.

But in the end, what do reporters get paid to do? You got it - report the damn truth. And the truth of this housing crash doesn't allow for sugar coating and spin anymore - well, unless you're the NAR and Lawrence Yun of course.

Check out her CNBC real estate blog for more insights into the housing market, and also her role as a reporter for America's leading business news station. Good stuff, good blog.

Here's the HP interview, in its entirety. I hope you join me HP'ers in welcoming Diana to the blog, and thanking her for her hard-edged reporting.

______________________

HP: Do you feel the Real Estate Industrial Complex attacks on the media's role in popping the housing bubble are fair?

DO: Absolutely not. I can't speak for everyone, but I report numbers, facts, statistics and on-the-street evidence.

I find that the REIC is ready to blame me no matter what I say. Last year I was "a shill for the Realtors, helping to pump up the market." This year I'm the Usama Bin Laden of real estate, blowing the housing market to bits with my reports.

CEO's of the major public home builders who were jumping at the chance to get on our air 18 months ago, are now shirking us with force, and when I argue, they say I make them all look like fools. This, after I did several pieces on all their buyer incentives...which one could argue is better than a commercial.

HP: Many in the media were cheerleading the bubble on the way up (remember the infamous Time Magazine housing cover?), and quoted NAR press releases as news. Just as many in the media jumped on tanks and ra-ra'ed the Iraq war. How would you rate the media's performance during the housing bubble and crash?

DO: I do my best, but look, the overall media jumps on whatever the hype-du-jour is. They have to because that's what the bosses want.

I have read some stuff out there about housing that is just positively false. During the subprime meltdown I watched a lot of material from local reporters and even network correspondents who clearly didn't fully understand the issue.

To be fair, the mainstream media is just that, mainstream, and having been one of those for many years, I know it's very hard to jump into a complex issue, often given one day to do it, and not just follow the hype.

The mortgage market is extremely complex. I have the advantage of being a specialist at a business channel, so I have more time to learn as much as I can about the sector.

HP: Many "analysts" are predicting the housing crash will finish up this year. What do you think?

DO: I think housing is a tricky storm and a slow moving one at that. Housing will recover of course, but it will do it locally and anecdotally at first. There is still a lot more fallout from readjusting ARMs and subprime loans.

I expect things to look better in 2008, but I wouldn't look for any dramatic improvements, overall nationwide, this year.

HP: What do you think about the housing bubble blogs? Do you read them yourself? Do you think they've played a role in deflating housing expectations and the bubble?

DO: I think blogs are wonderful. I have one myself (http://realtycheck.cnbc.com/), but the fact is that blogs are opinion and just that.

Many blogs include data and can be very informative, but as with anything, check the source, consider the blogger, and be careful.

I've learned a lot from blogs, I've also found some blogs to be wildly inaccurate. I don't, however, think that blogs are mainstream enough in the real estate market yet to have a profound effect on current sales. I say yet.

HP: What's the chatter at CNBC? I assume almost everyone there owns a home - are you getting any pressure to lighten up on the real estate crash, since it's costing everyone there some money? And do you think reporters like yourself should have to disclose whether they have real estate investments when they do a real estate article, just as they do with stocks?

DO: Well thanks for the compliment, but I don't think anyone truly believes that I can move the real estate market.

No, nobody at CNBC has told me to dial up or down on anything. As I said before, I report data, I interview experts, industry professionals and corporate leaders. I chat it all up in my blog, but on TV I am a reporter, and I do my best not to skew anything any specific way.

Look, I own a house. Do you think I want the value to go down? No, but I also don't think my reporting of real national and local numbers are going to change any values out there. There are far greater forces than me moving the housing market.

I do not have any real estate investments, other than my own home, and I, like all CNBC reporters, am not allowed to own any individual stocks, so I could not invest in a public home builder even if I wanted to.

I don't think the downturn in housing is "costing" regular homeowners any money, unless they are about to sell their homes. Investor, speculator, flipper-types are a different story.

Posted on: 2007/6/16 2:15
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Tazmanio, I am not 100% sure, but I thought this new law is about introducing a new visa for illegal immigrants. This has nothing to do with the temp-visa kind of Newport inhabitants, which I to suppose make up a lot of the nieghbourhood.
It has been suggested that this will introduce a new system for visas, a point-based system, blabla. I don't know too much, but I think it will be the same in a way with today's visas: some professionals have a limit of visas per year lower than housing in newport, and they finish by noon of january 1st. So this new point-based thing will be just another limited dust in the eyes of the first-generation immigrants. Its impact on North Jersey (or Cambridge, MA) RE is going to be zero.
Don't fool yourself thinking that the illegals are actually nobel laureates, they are more like strawberry pickers and they will have no effect on RE in the first generation.

Posted on: 2007/6/15 22:02
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Re: So much for all of you folks who predicted a JC/NYC RE Crash
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Quote:

Scottacus wrote:
Also, not to accuse anyone unfairly, but Tazmanio and Stratocaster seem an awful lot like the same person. Like eerily so.

Don't want to start anything, but a certain user did get temporarily banned for what was initially thought to be having 2 screen names.


Just because two people have a similar opinion doesn't mean it's a conspiracy

P.S. One check of our IPs should clear the air quite quickly I would think...

Posted on: 2007/6/15 21:37
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Re: So much for all of you folks who predicted a JC/NYC RE Crash
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Also, not to accuse anyone unfairly, but Tazmanio and Stratocaster seem an awful lot like the same person. Like eerily so.

Don't want to start anything, but a certain user did get temporarily banned for what was initially thought to be having 2 screen names.

Posted on: 2007/6/15 21:30
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Re: So much for all of you folks who predicted a JC/NYC RE Crash
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Jeebus hit the nail on the head -- the best estimate of a property's value is what it can be rented for. After all, as a homeowner you are basically acting both as an investor and as a landlord to yourself.

When it costs a lot more to own (vs rent) the same property, the market is out of whack. While that seems to be the case now, it's hard to tell whether that imbalance will correct itself through rising rents or flat/declining home prices. My money is that rents will rise while home prices remain close to flat (as appears to be happening in Manhattan this year).

Rising rates don't help home prices a lot, but keep in mind to find 7% mortgage rates you only have to go as far back as last year.

Posted on: 2007/6/15 21:17
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Re: So much for all of you folks who predicted a JC/NYC RE Crash
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Quote:

JSQ wrote:
Quote:

So, what's happening on Wall St. (you know, the people that employ 99% of the immigrants in JC)?

Did you actually mean it? Because the Afghan hashish sellers didn't seem to work on Wall St, nor the girls at C-Town....

No immigrant will go home and return, pay 5000 (do you know how much is that for these people?), and live on a visa that doesn't change their lives in any way for 8 years. OK, they can go home and get back safely, but how many illegal immigrants from NJ afforded home travels anyway?

Almost no illegal immigrant has the money for a cheap house in, e.g., Camden. This law will have zero effect on RE.


Well, down here in Newport (a.k.a. LeFrakville) the majority of temp-visa workers (90%+?) are Wall St. dependent, so I guess layoffs on W St. might have a different effect here than in say Union City, North Bergen, Society Hill, etc....

Posted on: 2007/6/15 21:04

Edited by TaZMaNiO on 2007/6/15 21:20:57
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Re: So much for all of you folks who predicted a JC/NYC RE Crash
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Quote:

So, what's happening on Wall St. (you know, the people that employ 99% of the immigrants in JC)?

Did you actually mean it? Because the Afghan hashish sellers didn't seem to work on Wall St, nor the girls at C-Town....

No immigrant will go home and return, pay 5000 (do you know how much is that for these people?), and live on a visa that doesn't change their lives in any way for 8 years. OK, they can go home and get back safely, but how many illegal immigrants from NJ afforded home travels anyway?

Almost no illegal immigrant has the money for a cheap house in, e.g., Camden. This law will have zero effect on RE.

Posted on: 2007/6/15 3:23
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Re: So much for all of you folks who predicted a JC/NYC RE Crash
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Yea, but markets eventually tend toward fundamentals, especially after becoming far from them. In the case of stocks, companies with market values at insane multiples to how much money they make (e.g. dot.com in 2000) seldom remain at those levels and almost always lose money for shareholders. The issue isn't necessarily that they are bad companies but that a crazy amount of good future results is already built into their price.

A reasonable fundamental for residential real estate is how much the same property can be rented for. When owning costs far more than renting valuation looks out of whack. To expect further large increases in price in light of this, the drying up of easy mortgages, and the possibility of the local financial services boom coming to an end seems unlikely.

I'd take your bet happily but you could do so with a more reputable counterparty by by buying futures based on home prices (e.g. http://www2.standardandpoors.com/port ... ge.topic/indices_csmahp/0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,1,0,0,0,0,0.html)
Most of the interest seems to be in hedging against losses so you could make a bundle if you are right. Good luck.

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nugnfutz wrote:
Market forces not logic will decide. My bet, downtown JC prices will double over the next 3-4 years.

Posted on: 2007/6/15 1:50
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Re: So much for all of you folks who predicted a JC/NYC RE Crash
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Quote:
From American Banker, two days ago ---
Some facts instead of speculation on why some housing markets are strong. Immigrants Seen Fueling Market for Homes ...Demand for housing in the United States will accelerate in the next decade as immigrants, whose status has been hotly debated in presidential campaigns and in the U.S. Congress, look for homes, a Harvard University study said.


More SPIN from the Real Estate/Mortgage cheerleaders

With first-time home buyers priced-out of the market, how can immigrants (most of whom live in corporate housing) jump into this shark-infested market?!?

Home buyers scared straight by rates - 2007-06-14 - The party's been over, but the hangover is just beginning.

Freddie Mac: 30-yr mortgage average up sharply to 6.74%, "...inventories of new homes remain high, putting downward pressure on construction and home prices."

WSJ - High home prices have helped drive many first-time buyers out of the housing market. Now, with prices falling in many areas, there are some signs that buyers are beginning to drift back.

So, what's happening on Wall St. (you know, the people that employ 99% of the immigrants in JC)?

Bear Stearns' 2nd-Quarter Profit Shrinks on Woes in Mortgage Industry

Goldman, Bear 2Q hurt by subprimes

P.S. I'm hearing talk down-low about several big hedge-funds in serious trouble regarding over-leveraged positions in mortage bets...

This thread should be quite funny by Q4

Posted on: 2007/6/14 22:38
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Re: So much for all of you folks who predicted a JC/NYC RE Crash
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From American Banker, two days ago ---
Some facts instead of speculation on why some housing markets are strong.
Cheers,

Immigrants Seen Fueling Market for Homes (American Banker)

Demand for housing in the United States will accelerate in the next decade as immigrants, whose status has been hotly debated in presidential campaigns and in the U.S. Congress, look for homes, a Harvard University study said.

The number of new households, a key indicator of real estate demand, will rise to an average of 1.46 million a year for the next decade, up from 1.26 million a year from 1995 to 2005, according to a report issued Monday by Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies in Cambridge, Mass.

One-quarter of the growth will come from legal immigrants, the study said.

"Immigration has undergirded the housing market, and it's now reaching a size and scale where it's beginning to shape the market," Nicolas Retsinas, the director of the Harvard center, said in an interview.

Last year all of the top five surnames on California real estate deeds and four of the top 10 names nationally were Hispanic, said Mr. Retsinas, a former assistant secretary and federal housing commissioner at the Department of Housing and Urban Development and a former director of the Office of Thrift Supervision.

The Senate last week shelved a proposed rewriting of U.S. immigration policies, deadlocking over legislation to tighten border security, increase penalties for employers who hire undocumented workers, and give lawful status to illegal immigrants who pay fines and get "Z" visas.

One of every five U.S. residents 25 to 34 years old is foreign-born, according to the study. This age group is the primary source of household formation. Immigration, both legal and illegal, has added 1.2 million a year to the U.S. population since 2000, according to the report.

If illegal immigration fell to half its current level, the report said, U.S. household growth would be reduced by 5%, or 750,000 households during the next 10 years.

At least 20% of recent homebuyers in California, New York, New Jersey, and Florida have been foreign-born, and other states have seen immigrants account for as much as 14% of homebuyers, the report said. The biggest rise in the number of immigrant households has come in suburbs rather than the traditional urban sites.

The report, "The State of the Nation's Housing," also said that a drop in U.S. home building in the second half of 2006 shaved more than a percentage point off economic growth.

Builders cut production as the number of vacant new houses for sale rose by half a million by the end of 2006, the study said.

"Until some of the excess inventory is absorbed by the demand cycle and credit conditions stabilize, housing will continue to struggle and home prices will fall in more areas," it said.

Posted on: 2007/6/14 22:04
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Re: So much for all of you folks who predicted a JC/NYC RE Crash
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Posted on: 2007/6/14 21:52
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Re: So much for all of you folks who predicted a JC/NYC RE Crash
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I wouldn't attribute any logic to comparing real estate pricing (increases or drops) between the East and West coasts.

Posted on: 2007/6/14 17:32
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Re: So much for all of you folks who predicted a JC/NYC RE Crash
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Posted on: 2007/6/14 17:26
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Re: So much for all of you folks who predicted a JC/NYC RE Crash
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Market forces not logic will decide. My bet, downtown JC prices will double over the next 3-4 years.

Posted on: 2007/6/14 9:55
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Re: So much for all of you folks who predicted a JC/NYC RE Crash
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Posted on: 2007/6/13 22:06
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